Navigating The "Brexit" Market : Simplified #GBPCHFSterling Pairs, if you zoom out to the daily chart, had been in a sell-off run (bid run for EURGBP) for a few months now. For GBPCHF, the sell-off all started, technical-analysis wise, after the institutions tapped in 1.3375xx-1.338xx early may, forming an equal high formed two months previously. Fundamental/Sentiment analysis would suggest that this was due to the saga that is in Brexit. A no-deal Brexit/Boris Johnson becoming PM etc have provoked the market to dump their Sterling Longs.
I am in intraday-scalping mode for GBPCHF at least today (perhaps could be prolonged until Wednesday, all depending on what happens today). I see oceans of liquidity pools both side of the spectrum and I will make my trading decisions based on which pools the institutions will tap and the price action-reaction once it's been tapped. (long-term I am bearish on Sterling, if price tapped in the buy stops above, that would be grand! I would, with high conviction, would short GBPCHF from there and I would expect a bearish trend ensues)
The retail sentiment, although not as strong as NZD bids, is bid. I am a contrarian trader (generally prefers to be the other side of retail sentiment) backed up with my fundamental/sentiment stance, will indeed be bearish on GBP. However, as I mentioned above, I am in a scalping mode today for GBPCHF depending on which pool the big banks/institutions would tap in.
The range analysis - Last week's weekly range projection was not a hit. My belief is that when the price fails to hit the daily/weekly/monthly average range projection, then it has to pay it back in the following day/week/month. Price expansion very often happens after a week of a miss projection.
