Perseverance - this story is nutsTrading is just one of the many ' hobbies ' i have or had, another one is picking berries and nuts.
Now being Autumn is/was busy season, everywhere you looked, nuts. Hazelnuts, Walnuts, Chestnuts, NUTS.
On bushes and trees, in the fields, the forest, on the street, in the houses .. even most of my neighbors are nuts (err .. different story .. yet VERY much related to why I went into trading in the first .. and second place).
Even though my mother already liked, and tried to introduce us to, what nature has to offer for free .. being children .. we didn't pay attention nor cared all that much for that.
Many years ago, for what ever reason at that time, i started to notice just the vast amount of hazel- and walnuts in our area .. and started picking them.
As years passed by I didn't just randomly pick them, i started planning when, how and where to go about it.
While keeping my game up, readjusting my 'strategies' I couldn't help but notice how others started to follow my lead (for some reason people here could not be bothered with it until they noticed me doing it) and tried to emulate me (yes I am fully aware of just how narcissistic this may sound .. don't care, people close to me know this to be true). They didn't have my ' plans ' so they just ' went about it ', greedy as they are they started jerking on the branches, ripping of leaves and unripe fruits and nuts.
Nature has everything laid out in nicely recognizable patterns, structured events, cycles.
There was this guy named Ralph, there wasn't so much for market as there is today, but much like I started noticing the nuts on the street, Ralph noticed reoccurring patterns, which ultimately climaxed into an abysmal crash, shortly after that he formulated his set of rules, let's call them "The 12345abc rule" .
After many years, the markets matured more and more, people noticed that those rules often fell short .. so what do you do then ? You blame your lack of knowing them ? You throw them out ? .. oh no .. you add more rules (more is always better!!11).
Eventually that rule became known as the "12345-333-535-33333-abc-w-xyz-fibonacci" rule .. it still falls short .. but hey, the theory is solid !!1un, let's continue using it and just readjust the count if invalidated .. and readjust ..and readjust .. and readjust ..
Look at any one of those Waver-charts, the vast majority keeps invalidating, there is no consistence, why then keep tearing of those leaves and branches ? There are plenty other, far simpler and more fruitful "magic ball methods" out there.
Imo there are two categories of traders.
You could divide by smart and dumb money .. not going there (Institutional vs Retail - they all point to the other with disgust screaming and arguing "The apple is ROUND" - "No you idiot, it's RED", not noticing they both want the same (make money trading) yet use totally different mind- and rule-sets).. fruitless, useless, redundant discussions .. (Like an elephant telling a bird to stop chirping and start trumpeting, while the bird wants him to chirp)
No, the division is as follows:
The ones that trade with the trend and the once that go against it .
The ones that follow trend just do that, trending up ? go long , either in trend or in pullback : down ? short : vice-versa -- There is just one problem there, a trend is only a trend .. until it's not (and that is where the real trading 'fun' begins).
With nut-hunting, you have to start before season starts, you can not know when the first ripe ones fall out of the trees and bushes, you continue until you no longer find any (or until you decide you have enough)
(in trading this would mean: start buying before expected/estimated bottom and continue to sell after the expected/estimated top)
The other category of traders, the ones that "go against trend" are the ones that try to predict the lows and highs in advance, trying to predict ' reversals ' (those categories partially overlap since buying a pullback temporarily would go against trend).
Both parties will (usually)/(try to) use some sort of drawing (support, resistance) and sometimes other tools (indicators or fundamental market assessments) in hopes for the advantage.
One could say that "smart money" consists for the most part (again, overlapping categories) of "trend traders" .
The ones that are so overly greedy with idle hopes of getting the full "swing" are, of course, mostly "retailers" .
.. one could also make a claim about the 'Contrarians' being a third group, they are counter to .. ehm .. yeah, in a market where everyone gets served/ has a part, what do you want to "counter" here, the 'herd' ? (Pareto distribution..)?
So just like the other nuts going out to find people, the guys smashing trees, tearing leaves and breaking branches ended up with little or no usable nuts yet did a lot of work to get there .. and I got out every day just looking and observing .. and pulled the trigger at the right time (made a killing this year, ended up with more on that one day, than the combined season 'harvest' of any previous year).
so you see .. perseverance is key .. stick with something .. get better at it, adjust, readjust
Retailtraders
SHORT Signal: YFI is overvaluedYFI has gained x10 over the past few weeks. it just recently got added on Coinbase which is a home for most retail traders so it pumped EVEN MORE! and that happened after a short break! In my opinion, this market has to CALM DOWN! It's not like this can rise forever and the way it rose is NOT NORMAL. Many investors are eventually going to take their next step which is CASHING OUT!. Think smart before buying. Many retail traders will get trapped by this while all you gotta do is DUMP IT!!!
Stop: 41000
Enter: 34000-36000
TP: 18000-21000
Oversold & Undervalued - Robust Earnings ReportI've been watching Walmart since they issued a robust earnings report weeks ago.
The stock "DID NOT" rally on the report like several other stocks did. In fact, Walmart has not taken part in the recent rally.
If you look at the accumulation chart, Walmart has been under accumulation by institutions for a while.
I feel, at current levels, the stock is oversold and ready for a big pop to the upside.
Walmart's in-store and online sales were robust while Amazon lost sales. What does this tell you? Walmart is learning and gaining customers as Amazon and others lose sales to Walmart.
Walmart sat back and let others fail and learned by the failures of competitors. Walmart will be another Amazon moving forward but I think it will be bigger than Amazon!
What does Walmart have that Amazon doesn't? A very powerful retail brick & mortar presence while Amazon is still trying to build one.
Either way, short term or long term, Walmart is a clear winner!
Long!
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Looking at NSE retail investors strategy🤓
If you are wondering what was public shareholders favorite stock in summer 2018, this is it:
Obviously, what did you expect? 😆
Compared to the N50 which of course has crashed recently but apart from that in an uptrend:
I will translate a story from punjabi (nah I'm jk it's in english)
Buying aggressively a fast falling stock with lots of reports of fraud and 0 institutional interest.
Maybe they can please insanity or several mental disability?
At least alot of those that retail sold the most (not short, just abandonned) are down a ton, ALTHOUGHT it wouldn't surprise me that they started buying as the price fell a lot.
We can look at a few other of retail favorite holdings nearly 2 years ago...
Alot of big gains in the past and then a crash. Basically the stocks which are the very best to short.
"Past performance is not indicative of future performance" is a sentence too complex to understand I guess.
Imma start a fund, set alert on retail picks, go short, profit.
Shorting stocks that are down 90% is probably one if the easiest ways to make money, probably the main issue is it does not scale obviously.
K that's enough for today. I am trying to imagine someone trying to convince me to try and teach traders and like I'd owe him one so I'm imagining myself "umm ok so biggest tip emm don't be complete idiots". I don't understand how this can have kept going for a century or more. When did "retail investing" become a thing? In the 1920s? Ye and all the problems started to appear then... Hitler etc. No one cares about the history, bunch of brainlets. Huge interest in finding out what the best indicator is and how much a day trader can earn. If these idiots ever make money I'm jumping off a cliff. Retail investing was nearly non existant in 1600-1800 right?
Goldman Sachs blames mom & pop investors for stock volatility (retail investing must be at ath by now)
www.marketwatch.com
I'll try posting about dumb money when I find data, I found robinhood users holdings and indian holdings, there must be more.
South Korea were all in crypto, so they must be interesting. They're supposed to be the country with highest IQ, would be funny to see what crap they invest in.
OOOOO It looks promising:
www.businesstimes.com.sg
www.straitstimes.com
😊
A look at the 10 most owned stocks by robinhood users 😂"Countertrend trading" and "We are oversold" these sentences just sound so stupid, I have a hard time believing this is a thing.
Here are a few of my finest comparisons:
"I put a pillow on my face and practice suffocated breathing".
"I compete in sprints with my legs tied together" Huh but why? "Well 2 legs have more power than 1 obviously duh silly" You keep losing! "YES BECAUSE THEY ALL CHEAT AND ALL KNOWING INSTITUTIONS MANIPULATE THE RACES!".
"I put my hand on the stove and now I am overburned way more than I should be, I will therefore keep my hand on and put the second one, should heal anytime".
"Counteroxygen breathing", "Countergravity jumping", "Counterheat cooking", "Countermudtorrent walking", "Counterultratide kayaking"...
"Stop buying umbrellas during this rainy season you fools! Don't you see we are overbought?", "Go to the pump station and fill your full car tank so you can stay at home don't you see Oil is oversold?", "Stop buying & drinking water during this heat wave you fools don't you see we are overbought?", "Stop buying ventilators and masks in this respiratory disease season you fools don't you see we are overbought?", "Stop avoiding sky stations in the summer we are oversold", "Why am I sunbathing by -5°C? Well clearly you are a noob and didn't notice seaside resort are very oversold this winter!"
It sounds so wrong xd
So, what are retail investors holding? First of all Tesla is not in the top 3 anymore, they have fallen to only #19. You have heard the theory a million times, and here the practical side of things confirms it: they hold and average in losers, they close at breakeven or take profit very quickly, they avoid winners, they get excited and buy at the top when the price goes parabolic.
Robinhood users have beautiful taste as you will see now.
Now, the top 10:
ACB was very oversold when wise & sophisticated investors took this opportunity. Aha! It got much cheaper, they can buy more now. They sure know how to smell a great deal.
Buying a car manufacturer on a downtrend for years and year, with declining sales and many financial issues, at the bottom clearly about to collapse and capitulate, smart, very smart. Buy parabolically as the stock capitulates? Pure genius. RSI at 7.50 was below 20.
Yes, in times of crisis companies with bad fundamentals and in a downtrend for 2 decades tend to do very well. Excellent perceptiveness by millenial retail investors.
Putting money in companies losing money and ignoring productive companies sounds like a great way to make a country prosper.
WallStreetBets legends have been spotted betting on another success story. How much lower can it go it's already down 97%. You don't loose if you don't sell.
(Multi)National-Socialist Umbrella corps time is soon over, I knew it! I can't wait for the big tech bubble to deflate. *Kondratiev
I... I don't know what to say... This is... They have the right to vote... I'm scared... That's some serious mental disability... Idk if I can laugh about it...
Not going to bother commenting. Same as previous.
I am thinking of shorting it but it's best if I stick to my own domain. Those investors stupidity is astonishing, I am not joking, I am shocked and even a bit worried.
Here's the top 10.
Hey, but what about highly performing stocks?
Unsurprisingly most of the top perf stocks are those expected to be a major part of the next Kond. cycle, and are seen as very important at the moment (but at the same time poor countries with old drugs are doing better than rich countries so... we'll see).
Quick check of a biotech company not in the "best performing" ones (which are mostly small ones) but a rather big name that is in the S&P500 (barely thought) and doign very well:
That's really something. Can you imagine how bad the world would be if there were no professional investors? Or if idiots keep reproducing at the current rate and smart women keep "focussing on their careers". 200 investors. That's it. OrganiGram has 90 thousand (265M market cap versus 10B for BIO). They'd rather invest in 4000 other companies rather than this one.
What about another top performer, Kodiak Sciences (2.25B mcap)?
They're not making positive earnings yet, but this is a growth stock, and we all know robinbros don't look at that, and we know they don't hold for years or decades.
RobinTrack is going to become my main indicator...
There are no big tank storage companies in the US I'm sad I wanted to check that. I already know what the result would be thought.
What about the FMCG sector?
Doing very well in this period of course (especially in the toilet paper area)
Delivery also doing good
Let's look at another top performer, a small cap...
I think that's enough, I made my point. I did not cherry pick the worse possible examples.
These people are STUUUUUPID. They are way too stupid to be trading even simple instruments in a protected environement and with regulations to protect them.
You can throw all the regulations you want, they will still be stupid and do dumb things.
And they think they can get their foot into Oil futures & other complex products.
Tough love: If you constantly fight the trend and let your losers run you are an idiot and you will lose everything.
There is a reason why the best in the world keep repeating the same advice.