Retest-structure
ONE TO WATCH EURCHFSince January 2015 the EURCHF has been in a somewhat dormant bullish trend, with some dips and sideways movement, however there hasn't really been a sign of a definitive trend.
We had some potential signs of a bullish trend in July 2015 with a breakout of the range (highlighted by the rectangle to the left. We had a re-test of the range and then a further move signifying a potential long move. Unfortunately price touched the 1.09800 area (highlighted by the 2nd blue line) and could not break it, creating a sideways market.
Now recently we have just seen a breakout from the range again and hopefully we can get a breakout of the 1.09800 area and a clear close on the WEEKLY time frame confirming the breakout and new highs.
If this happens I would seriously consider monitoring price action around the small rectangle to take this position LONG as previous structure is considerably above at 1.20000.
LETS KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE
CADJPY: Perfect Example of a Structure Based TCT Opportunity Not a pair that’s in my trading portfolio but I have no doubt that this will be on Jason Stapleton’s radar during this morning Warroom meeting. This is a simple Trend Continuation Trade (TCT) setup on the CADJPY as we look to get long at our current level of structure support.
WHAT I’M LOOKING AT
Price action has just broken a resistance level and has retraced back to structure for the second time. The current structure shelf allows you a nice area to get involved with minimum risk, while our previous structure highs look to be a good area to do some profit taking. The only question is “how do I get involved?” Well that parts up to you and your trading plan. An aggressive trade can simply buy it up at market, while a more conservative trader may need to go down to a lower timeframe and wait for confirmation at that level. Either way I think it’s a great example of the type of trades that I look for when searching for TCT type setups. Just do me a favor, make sure you follow your rules, because you saw what happened to me when I didn't ( www.youtube.com )
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at Trade Empowered
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EURUSD: Looking for Shorts at this decision pointIf you saw my post yesterday then you know that I’ve been waiting for a potential short on this pair. (Here’s the video link explaining the trade www.youtube.com) My initial killzone was pretty large and after a brief test of the bottom levels of it, price has rallied back to the top providing me with the opportunity that I was waiting for.
The reason I didn’t enter the trade yesterday was strictly due to the fact that I wouldn’t get the risk reward that I wanted. Risk reward will still be difficult at this level because of how close the structure levels are but if I’m able to get the entry that I want, my stops may be short enough to make it work.
The London session extension gave us another equal measured move back into structure looking left and some Fibonacci extensions. The bulls gave a nice test of the highs and were beaten back after the first attempt to break through. As I type I’m watching this on the 15 minute chart waiting for a reason to enter, all depending on how this current candle completes. For targets I’ll be looking for a move back down into our previous new structure highs, and certainly looking to aggressively manage this one during my live trading room hours. We’ll see how this one pans out
“Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan”
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered
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Bearish cypher 4HAs expected the bears tested all of the fib extensions of the butterfly. I also expected the bulls would start to kick in at the predefined zone of 1.9383 - 1.9363. Price even pinched lower to 1.9293 to trigger the bat entries. Unfortunately I didn't see the bullish bat, but that price alignment really gave the bulls a good risk:reward ratio.
Now I'm both long and short with the GBPAUD. I took partial profit at 1.9363 and closed two short positions. At the same time I entered long with the butterfly. I expect the bulls will drive up the price because of the following:
(1) price went down extreme, but eventually a lot of buyers stepped in producing a very large wick.
(2) there was no strong follow up after that candlestick. this tells me that the bears are still there.
(3) The bears have tried to counter the previous candlestick. But if you look closely, initally they failed.
Now I have a bearish cypher pattern on my radar which lines up with my desired selling zone to scale in short.
GBPAUD: Retest of Triangle via Bullish Gartley (+video)GBPAUD has been a pair that we've been tracking for about a month now. For the past w\few weeks we've been waiting for the ascending triangle breakout and now that it's occurred the next chance to get long would be a retest of structure.
As the market has wiggled it's way down, we've set up a potential bullish Gartley pattern that can be used to take advantage of a longer term buy or simply just trade as the pattern that it is.
Also yesterday, I released my usual Thursday night video. It has nothing to do with this particular trade but it should provide a better idea of what I look for when analyzing a price chart. www.youtube.com
***EURGBP SHORT SET UP***I have been shorting this pair for a while now. Since it has been on a downtrend with predictable pullbacks and FIB retracements!
A 4hr Candle just closed testing the Bearish Flag that broke out recently from GBP strength.
This technical analysis has been respecting a weekly structure and is now on course to test the lower Trend Line of this structure.
I am expecting price to test the 0.74 and 0.73 handle. This is where I will be taking profits!
R
GBPUSD: 3rd Times The Charm Right?Tried shorting this pair twice yesterday and failed on both attempts. The first short came at the aggressive structure level that we talked about in Monday's training (which occurs around the B leg of the harmonic move I drew out) and the second attempt came at these very same highs. Unfortunately my stop was about 8 pips too shy and the market got me.
Fast forward a day later and we now have a double top at the harmonic completion level along with a bat pattern (if you were to shoot down to the 15min chart). Third times the charm right.
In a trade like this we can look to either play it as a bat, or simply use the bat pattern as an entry reason for the bigger double top move.
Is the correction over? Time for the last leg down? #BTCAs you can see in the chart, this whole down leg (from mid November) has been a sequence of break support, make lower low, retest breakout level (support turned resistance), break support etc. You can see in the chart where each retest has occurred and we are now at that level again. We are also ~$10 off the 10 November 2013 low. To me this says we should see a topping movement and head down again.
Note: the background trend lines and numbering are from 4xForecaster's Wolf Waves pattern. I had also published a version of this before we achieved point 4. Refer to the links below.
USDCAD Re-Test Structure, Is it Potential Trend Continuation?USDCAD is Retesting the structure resistance level on daily chart. Potential trend continuation expected as price action retest the structure and then go lower. The idea is to go short for trend continuation trade with stops above the resistance levels. Targets can be Fib 38.2 and 61.8 of the rally. Aggressive traders can stay in trade with trailing stops as the price action can break previous lows.
This is just my analysis. Any suggestions or different analysis is welcomed.
Happy Trading!!