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Retracement

Elliot waves meets Fibonacci [Educational]Hello everyone, today I like to share how I use elliot waves combined with fibonacci to analyze the market. The standard rules are: - Wave 2 can now be lower then the start of wave 1 - Wave 3 should be the longest - Wave 4 should not breach the high of wave 1 But to have a more objective view there are also price targets to be reached within the different waves. It's a complex subject to show in one chart, so feel free to ask in the comment section if you have any questions.
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BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Kyrean
4
Spring '21 Resistance Halts DOGE, Retracement Coming??Here I have COINBASE:DOGEUSD on the Weekly Chart! Last week COINBASE:DOGEUSD jumped .15 cents or roughly 102% following the final voting count electing Donald Trump the next President of the USA. Along his campaign, we saw a very heavy Pro-Crypto agenda along with the on-boarding of Elon Musk, known for his interest in COINBASE:DOGEUSD possibly being given a position running a "Department Of Government Efficiency". Price on COINBASE:DOGEUSD after breaking the Aug - Oct '21 Highs has halted right at the Apr - May '21 Resistance. Now with all the speculations coming out about the imminent RISE of price, where is a good place to start investing before the boom?!?! Based off the High @ .4398 to the Low @ .0805, just before the Break of Structure, We are given some Fibonacci Levels that align with Potential Buying Opportunities if Price needs Support to continue Higher to the All Time High @ .7605. *Aug / Oct '21 Highs .3550 - .3025 23.6% - 38.2% *Mar / Apr '24 Highs .2290 - .2067 *Golden Zone .2178 61.8%
BINANCE:DOGEUSDLong
by Novi_Fibonacci
1
EU Double Top Breaks Rising Support, 300+ Pip Sell Set-Up!Here I have FX:EURUSD on the Daily Chart! After last weeks Double Top was Confirmed, we see Price make a Bearish Break to and through the Rising Support created by the April, June and August Lows. -The Testing Candle alone generates ~500K in Selling Volume making the Rising Support weak enough to then Break Down to where price sits now. Applying the Fibonacci Retracement Tool from the Higher High @ 1.12138 to the Lower Low @ 1.08107, we can see a couple things: *23.6% Level sits right at the 200 EMA which is curving down and Price is now trading Below *38.2% Level sits right in the center of the Resistance Zone created from the March Highs *50% Level is at the Higher Low that was Broken to Confirm the Double Top I suspect that Price will need to Retest the Break of Rising Support before it can continue to Push Down! Potential Set-Up: Sell Entry 1.09058 (23.6%) - 1.09647 (38.2%) SL - 1.10112 (50%) TP - 1.0665
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
EUR-USDThis EUR/USD chart shows a recent decline after reaching a resistance level around 1.12137, forming a double-top pattern that suggests a trend reversal. The price has since dropped sharply and is approaching a significant "Order Blocker" zone between 1.07515 and 1.08022, where institutional buying may occur. If the price holds in this area, a potential bounce toward the 50% retracement level near 1.1000 could happen, indicating a bullish correction. However, if the price breaks below this zone, further bearish momentum could push it toward the next support at 1.0715. In summary, the market is currently bearish, but the reaction at the "Order Blocker" will determine whether a reversal or further decline is likely. Traders should monitor this key zone closely.
Long
by Dhareja
6
Bitcoin Potential Bull Flag w/ $35K (91%) Gain on Valid Break!Here I have BITSTAMP:BTCUSD on the Daily Chart! 2024 has been an Exceptional Year for Bitcoin after its nearly 2 Year Monumental Recovery from the Nov. 2022 Low @ $15,512 to pushing price up past the 3 Year High of $69,000 on Nov. 10th 2021 to the now New 8 Month High @ $73,835 on Mar. 14th 2024! Fall '21/Summer '22 - Bitcoin is in a Declining Stage Fall '22/Summer '23 - Bitcoin is in an Accumulation Stage Fall '23/Spring '24 - Bitcoin is in a Advancing Stage Spring '24/Fall '24 - ( Distribution or Accumulation) ??? Fall '24/Summer '25 - ??? Currently, Bitcoin is exhibiting signs of a Potential Bull Flag with a Flagpole suggesting a potential 91.78% or $35,334.57 Gain with a Valid Bullish Break!! We can see Bitcoin has been in a Descending Channel since the Spring of 2024 came but Price Action has made a few key movements that I'd like to point out: - After traveling the Descending Channel from the Higher High @ $73,835.57, Price makes a False Break of the Channel that touches the Previous Level of Structures Higher High and makes a 38.2% Retracement of the Current Higher High and is immediately brought back up into the Channel. - Price continues to stay magnetized to the 200 EMA since its entered the Channel but Price seems to be trading Above it with ease in this Consolidation Zone. Now this current Channel or Consolidation Price has been in from this Summer '24 going into this Fall '24 can either be an Accumulation OR Distribution Stage, all based on if we get a Bullish or Bearish Break to this Channel and something tells me we are looking at a Potential Bull Flag in the Making with the potential to reach -Bullish Bias on BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Fundamentals: - BITSTAMP:BTCUSD has been gaining not only Domestic but Global traction with stories like El Salvador this year making Bitcoin its Official Currency! -Economics now accepting more transactions Crypto-wise showing honest Expansion and Integration into society -A lot of statistics show that people believe the USD may be looking at a downfall in the coming years and Crypto, specially BITSTAMP:BTCUSD potentially being a savior! People are not only fleeing to Commodities and Bonds when devaluation peers its head, but Crypto seems to start being another sector to look towards!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Novi_Fibonacci
Lucid Group Trip Down to Lower $3's Before Uplift?! - LCIDHere I have Lucid Group, Inc - LCID on the Weekly Chart! First, Technical. We see Price rock bottoms to its Lowest @ $2.29 on April 22 2024 and just after the Negative Earnings and Revenue report on May 6th 2024, Price creates an Equal High @ $3.35 followed by a Violation of Structure giving us a Higher Low @ $2.48 finding Support in the $2.50 Area to then make a Higher High @ $4.32! Turning this once looking Downtrend to an Uptrend. Prices Higher Highs and Lows are now being halted at the $4.20 - $4.40 Range where I suspect Price will need to find more Support before it can continue on to what I believe will be its next Target being the Next Swing High @ $5.31! *Divergence in the Highs of Price relative to the Highs on RSI show Bearish Signs The Bullish Rally in Price on August 19th left open quite a Gap to Fill from $3.83 - $3.30 and If Price is willing to fill it, the $3.46 - $3.13 Area looks very Valuable being there's: 1) - Equal High @ $3.35 being Potential Support 2) - Golden Fibonacci Zone @ $3.34 (55.9%) - $3.22 (61.8%) (Based from HL @ $2.48 to HH @ $4.43) 3) - RSI after Breaking EQH, starts Trading Above 50 4) BBTrend Printing Smaller, Dark, Red Bars All leading to Bullish Markers! Now, Fundamentals. Lucid Group announced that it is set to launch not only 3 new affordable EV's but that it also plans to unveil the Gravity SUV later in the year "highlighting the company's advanced technology and mileage range on electric vehicles." In competition with Tesla's long reign. www.tradingview.com The "Fastest Armored Car On The Planet" is sparking investor interest with Lucid Air Sapphire is giving serious challenges to Tesla! www.tradingview.com The past 2 Earnings & Revenue Reports have both been Disappointing for the company but the most recent Report on August 5th compared to May 6th tell a slightly different story .. May - Revenue Estimate (173.544M) / Reported (172.2M) = -844.404k Aug.- Revenue Estimate (190.303M) / Reported (200.6M) = +10.279M *Next Earnings and Revenue - November 5th 2024 LCID will be worth keeping a watch on .. Stay Tuned!!
NASDAQ:LCIDLong
by Novi_Fibonacci
1
NQ Bullish with Signs of a Potential Reversal in Early OctoberThe Nasdaq 100 ( CME_MINI:NQ1! ) futures continue to exhibit a strong uptrend, driven by market optimism and supportive economic factors. As seen on the chart, the Bonsai trend indicator remains bullish, signaling the ongoing upward momentum. However, caution is warranted as we approach a critical resistance zone, where multiple technical and external factors suggest the potential for a pullback. Key Technical Levels and Signals Resistance at 20,600 : The price is nearing a significant resistance zone between 20,500 and 20,600, where previous highs have been met with seller pressure. The market may struggle to break through this zone in the short term, leading to possible consolidation or retracement. Bearish Strength on Oscillators : The Bonsai OS is starting to signal an incoming bearish strength, where the oscillator fails to make new highs while the price continues to rise. This divergence suggests that the current bullish move may be losing momentum, increasing the probability of a reversal or correction in the near term. Short-Term Retracement : A retracement to the 19,800-20,000 region would be healthy for the overall trend, providing potential buying opportunities for traders waiting for a dip. This level aligns with previous support zones and retracement levels, making it a logical area for price to stabilize before another move upward. Geopolitical and Economic Factors Affecting NQ U.S. Elections and Tax Policy : The upcoming U.S. election between Vice President Harris and former President Trump is creating uncertainty around future tax policies, particularly regarding capital gains and unrealized gains taxation. Investors may start adjusting their portfolios as we get closer to October, historically a volatile month for the markets​. Global Conflicts and Economic Risks : Rising tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Taiwan add further geopolitical risk. Market participants are keeping a close eye on potential escalations, as these conflicts could shift sentiment toward a risk-off environment, impacting indices like the Nasdaq 100​. Fed Policy and Economic Data : The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut has temporarily buoyed the markets, but upcoming data releases—particularly around inflation and employment—could change the tone. Economic surprises in early October could lead to volatility, especially if the data fails to support the current bullish narrative​. Conclusion: Bullish But Cautious The overall Bonsai indicator continues to signal an uptrend, and the market looks poised to push higher if it can break through the 20,600 resistance zone. However, the oscillator's bearish divergence and external political risks suggest a potential reversal or at least a short-term correction in the first week of October. Traders should monitor these signals closely and consider adjusting their positions accordingly. Keep an eye on the VIX as well, which has been known to spike during periods of heightened uncertainty, offering opportunities to hedge against increased volatility​.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by bonsai_trade
Euro Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Stalls Inside of Yearly HighEUR/USD has put in a very bullish outlay so far in Q3 trade. But last week saw bulls stall inside of the 2024 high and that brings questions to topside continuation in the pair. EUR/USD continued the advance last week following the rate cut rally following the European Central Bank’s move two weeks ago. There was technical context for bullish continuation as the pair broke through the topside of a bull flag formation but, to date, buyers haven’t been able to push for a re-test of the yearly high at the 1.1200 handle. There was seemingly an open door for a test of the highs last week as the pair showed three consecutive days of swing highs within 25 pips of that big figure. This week started with pullback but that also shows a bit of indecision as sellers were unable to test below last Thursday’s swing-low. EUR/USD Bigger Picture At this point it’s difficult to argue with the intermediate-term outlay in the pair, which has been decisively bullish since the rally began around the Q3 open. The pair was working around the 1.0700 at the time and as USD-weakness, prodded by a sell-off in USD/JPY, continued to drive DXY to fresh lows, EUR/USD continued its upward advance. But taking a step back, the argument can be made that the pair remains in the confines of a longer-term range and last week’s respect of the 1.1200 handle further speaks to that, as that, itself, is a lower-high from the 2023 swing at 1.1275. This sets up for an important few weeks as price remains within that shorter-term bullish trend into the Q3 close, with those very obvious resistance levels lurking overhead. I had written about the US Dollar to finish last week, and if the USD is going to rally, it’s probably going to need some help from EUR/USD bears. EUR/USD Shorter-Term Strategy Sellers made a quick push at the start of this week’s trade but as noted above, they haven’t been able to make much of a mark yet. But – this does set up some additional lower-high context as last week’s stall around 1.1175 is inside of the prior high at 1.1200, which is inside of the 2023 high at 1.1275. The 1.1140 level that I’ve been tracking in webinars is in-play as of this writing and there’s additional context for a possible lower-high up to prior short-term support, around 1.1155. If bears can defend that, the focus is on tests of deeper support. I’m tracking a Fibonacci level at 1.1081 that helped to bring the post-Fed bounce last week, and that’s followed by a swing at 1.1055. After that is the 1.1000 level and that’s the price that was vigorously defended into and around the ECB’s rate cut. Bears aren’t necessarily out of the woods on a first test below 1.1000, however, as the 1.09424 Fibonacci level could be a lead-in for bear trap potential on a bigger picture basis. That’s the 50% mark of the same Fibonacci retracement that set the high last year at the 61.8% (1.12697) and the low so far this year around the 38.2% (1.06152). --- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist
by WHSelfInvest
Gold Overbought Daily, Weekly, Monthly: But Does it Matter?Gold Talking Points: Gold bulls have continued to push an impressive trend throughout 2024 and there was another extension of that this morning with another fresh all-time-high. At this point chasing fresh breakouts in gold can be seen as challenging given that it’s now showing overbought conditions on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. But – that doesn’t mean that price has to turn. Instead, the focus can shift to pullbacks of higher-low support, like what had showed around FOMC last week. It’s been an astounding rally in gold so far in 2024 and that’s continued through another week, with the metal getting another push-higher this morning on the back of dovish Fed comments from Neel Kashkari and Austan Goolsbee. The big USD driver for this week is unveiled on Friday with the most recent release of Core PCE, often considered to be ‘the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.’ Until then, however, there’s numerous iterations of Fed-speak, including a speech from Chair Powell on Thursday morning. Markets have high expectations for more dovish-speak as rate expectations are currently showing a 76.5% probability of at least 75 bps more in cuts by the end of the year, standing against a current 23.5% probability of 50 bps, which is what the Fed’s projections pointed to last Wednesday. In gold, that FOMC rate decision delivered the last pullback as prices softened down to the $2550 zone of support. That didn’t last for long, however, as bulls pounced and continued to drive through last week’s close and this week’s open, setting another fresh all-time-high. Gold Bigger Picture: Overbought Daily, Weekly, Monthly At this point chasing gold-higher on breakouts can be a challenge. There’s been a proclivity for bulls to soften the drive on tests of resistance or at fresh highs, thereby leading to the build of a rising wedge pattern. And there’s also the matter of overbought dynamics to consider as gold is currently showing overbought readings on all of the daily, weekly and monthly chart. That does not mean that gold has to turn, however. The monthly overbought read started way back in April and, of course, gold has continued to drive since then. The weekly overbought reading re-appeared in early-September, just as bulls were gearing up for another breakout. And the daily overbought reading showed last Friday, and this is the first time that’s happened since April. That’s when gold began to stall and range which largely held through the Q2 close and the Q3 open. So, overbought doesn’t mean that this is ready for reversal. It does, however, highlight the challenge of chasing and instead points to pullback potential such as the scenario I was talking about ahead of the FOMC last Wednesday. On the below chart, I’ve highlighted the two prior episodes in 2024 when daily RSI pushed into overbought territory. Gold Shorter-Term Strategy I had shared a zone on twitter this morning that was highlighting short-term resistance around the 2625 level. Bulls breached that on the way to fresh highs and it’s now back in the picture as short-term support, which is confluent with the trendline taken from the higher-low produced after the FOMC pullback last week. This is also what I’m considering as support side of a rising wedge formation, which is often approached with aim of bearish reversals or pullbacks in bullish trends. I’m more interested in pullbacks at this point and that highlights the 2619 swing of prior resistance as a possible spot of support. Below that I have another prior swing of resistance-turned-support at 2614. If that can’t hold, the door is open to a 2600 re-test which is what held the highs just after the FOMC statement release last Wednesday. When bulls drove price above that level, the pullback showing after couldn’t even get down to 2600, holding at 2602 and this sets up a support zone of note for retracement scenarios this week. --- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist
WHSELFINVEST:GOLDLong
by WHSelfInvest
(BTC) bitcoin "auto fib retracement - 100"BTC falling beneath the 100 auto fib retracement. Other cryptocurrency also beneath the red layer of the auto fib retracement include; AVAX, BADGER, CELO, COIN, CURVE, DASH, EGLD, HFT, KSM, MINA, RAD, SUSHI...and ICP is in the red unlike the other top traded cryptocurrency remaining in green, neutral or blue areas of the auto fib retracement. Others below the red line include: IMX, SUPER, AUCTION, PERP, IDEX, NMR, OGN, YFI, BLUR, DYP, STORJ, UMA, AXS, BTRST, SEI, APE, C98, DIA, LDO, METIS, GRT, TIA, MATIC (POLS), XCN and FX. Still no info from the newly listed tokens/coins of 2024.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptocurrencyBlot