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Retracement

Euro Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Stalls Inside of Yearly HighEUR/USD has put in a very bullish outlay so far in Q3 trade. But last week saw bulls stall inside of the 2024 high and that brings questions to topside continuation in the pair. EUR/USD continued the advance last week following the rate cut rally following the European Central Bank’s move two weeks ago. There was technical context for bullish continuation as the pair broke through the topside of a bull flag formation but, to date, buyers haven’t been able to push for a re-test of the yearly high at the 1.1200 handle. There was seemingly an open door for a test of the highs last week as the pair showed three consecutive days of swing highs within 25 pips of that big figure. This week started with pullback but that also shows a bit of indecision as sellers were unable to test below last Thursday’s swing-low. EUR/USD Bigger Picture At this point it’s difficult to argue with the intermediate-term outlay in the pair, which has been decisively bullish since the rally began around the Q3 open. The pair was working around the 1.0700 at the time and as USD-weakness, prodded by a sell-off in USD/JPY, continued to drive DXY to fresh lows, EUR/USD continued its upward advance. But taking a step back, the argument can be made that the pair remains in the confines of a longer-term range and last week’s respect of the 1.1200 handle further speaks to that, as that, itself, is a lower-high from the 2023 swing at 1.1275. This sets up for an important few weeks as price remains within that shorter-term bullish trend into the Q3 close, with those very obvious resistance levels lurking overhead. I had written about the US Dollar to finish last week, and if the USD is going to rally, it’s probably going to need some help from EUR/USD bears. EUR/USD Shorter-Term Strategy Sellers made a quick push at the start of this week’s trade but as noted above, they haven’t been able to make much of a mark yet. But – this does set up some additional lower-high context as last week’s stall around 1.1175 is inside of the prior high at 1.1200, which is inside of the 2023 high at 1.1275. The 1.1140 level that I’ve been tracking in webinars is in-play as of this writing and there’s additional context for a possible lower-high up to prior short-term support, around 1.1155. If bears can defend that, the focus is on tests of deeper support. I’m tracking a Fibonacci level at 1.1081 that helped to bring the post-Fed bounce last week, and that’s followed by a swing at 1.1055. After that is the 1.1000 level and that’s the price that was vigorously defended into and around the ECB’s rate cut. Bears aren’t necessarily out of the woods on a first test below 1.1000, however, as the 1.09424 Fibonacci level could be a lead-in for bear trap potential on a bigger picture basis. That’s the 50% mark of the same Fibonacci retracement that set the high last year at the 61.8% (1.12697) and the low so far this year around the 38.2% (1.06152). --- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist
by WHSelfInvest
Gold Overbought Daily, Weekly, Monthly: But Does it Matter?Gold Talking Points: Gold bulls have continued to push an impressive trend throughout 2024 and there was another extension of that this morning with another fresh all-time-high. At this point chasing fresh breakouts in gold can be seen as challenging given that it’s now showing overbought conditions on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. But – that doesn’t mean that price has to turn. Instead, the focus can shift to pullbacks of higher-low support, like what had showed around FOMC last week. It’s been an astounding rally in gold so far in 2024 and that’s continued through another week, with the metal getting another push-higher this morning on the back of dovish Fed comments from Neel Kashkari and Austan Goolsbee. The big USD driver for this week is unveiled on Friday with the most recent release of Core PCE, often considered to be ‘the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.’ Until then, however, there’s numerous iterations of Fed-speak, including a speech from Chair Powell on Thursday morning. Markets have high expectations for more dovish-speak as rate expectations are currently showing a 76.5% probability of at least 75 bps more in cuts by the end of the year, standing against a current 23.5% probability of 50 bps, which is what the Fed’s projections pointed to last Wednesday. In gold, that FOMC rate decision delivered the last pullback as prices softened down to the $2550 zone of support. That didn’t last for long, however, as bulls pounced and continued to drive through last week’s close and this week’s open, setting another fresh all-time-high. Gold Bigger Picture: Overbought Daily, Weekly, Monthly At this point chasing gold-higher on breakouts can be a challenge. There’s been a proclivity for bulls to soften the drive on tests of resistance or at fresh highs, thereby leading to the build of a rising wedge pattern. And there’s also the matter of overbought dynamics to consider as gold is currently showing overbought readings on all of the daily, weekly and monthly chart. That does not mean that gold has to turn, however. The monthly overbought read started way back in April and, of course, gold has continued to drive since then. The weekly overbought reading re-appeared in early-September, just as bulls were gearing up for another breakout. And the daily overbought reading showed last Friday, and this is the first time that’s happened since April. That’s when gold began to stall and range which largely held through the Q2 close and the Q3 open. So, overbought doesn’t mean that this is ready for reversal. It does, however, highlight the challenge of chasing and instead points to pullback potential such as the scenario I was talking about ahead of the FOMC last Wednesday. On the below chart, I’ve highlighted the two prior episodes in 2024 when daily RSI pushed into overbought territory. Gold Shorter-Term Strategy I had shared a zone on twitter this morning that was highlighting short-term resistance around the 2625 level. Bulls breached that on the way to fresh highs and it’s now back in the picture as short-term support, which is confluent with the trendline taken from the higher-low produced after the FOMC pullback last week. This is also what I’m considering as support side of a rising wedge formation, which is often approached with aim of bearish reversals or pullbacks in bullish trends. I’m more interested in pullbacks at this point and that highlights the 2619 swing of prior resistance as a possible spot of support. Below that I have another prior swing of resistance-turned-support at 2614. If that can’t hold, the door is open to a 2600 re-test which is what held the highs just after the FOMC statement release last Wednesday. When bulls drove price above that level, the pullback showing after couldn’t even get down to 2600, holding at 2602 and this sets up a support zone of note for retracement scenarios this week. --- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist
WHSELFINVEST:GOLDLong
by WHSelfInvest
(BTC) bitcoin "auto fib retracement - 100"BTC falling beneath the 100 auto fib retracement. Other cryptocurrency also beneath the red layer of the auto fib retracement include; AVAX, BADGER, CELO, COIN, CURVE, DASH, EGLD, HFT, KSM, MINA, RAD, SUSHI...and ICP is in the red unlike the other top traded cryptocurrency remaining in green, neutral or blue areas of the auto fib retracement. Others below the red line include: IMX, SUPER, AUCTION, PERP, IDEX, NMR, OGN, YFI, BLUR, DYP, STORJ, UMA, AXS, BTRST, SEI, APE, C98, DIA, LDO, METIS, GRT, TIA, MATIC (POLS), XCN and FX. Still no info from the newly listed tokens/coins of 2024.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptocurrencyBlot
B/C Correction Down To July Highs??? - GUHere I have GBP/USD on the 4Hr Chart! Friday gave us a STRONG break through this Area that acted as Support getting Price to its High @ 1.32664 but soon after we see price melt! I suspect we are looking at a Correction Wave where Price gave us a Lower Low (Point A) @ 1.31672 which Broke Structure, followed by a Lower High (Point B) @ 1.32271 Confirming Downtrend. Based on the Fib Extension Tool, we are given a Range Target of 1.30666 - 1.30287 around the High's of July! Now with Friday's new Lower Low @ 1.31095, I would like to see Price make a Retracement to the once Support-Turned-Resistance Zone for some potential Selling opportunities! If we take the Fib Retracement Tool from Friday's Low @ 1.31095 to Friday's High @ 1.31998, We see the Fib Entry Zone lands precisely in the Middle of our Resistance Zone! *Fib Entry Zone - *Golden Zone - Indicators: -DSR curving down & Price Trading Below -RSI Below 50 -BBTrend showing Bulls losing strength
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
If NVDA falls, How far will it Retrace?? - NVDAHere I have NVDA on the 4 Hr Chart! Price on NVDA is showing exhaustion in the $126.83 - $133.75 Range, just shy of the Previous Highs in June & July. This Range is based off the Beginning of what seems to be an Elliot Correction Wave from the Lower Low @ $90.69 followed by our High (Point A) @ $108.8 then our Higher Low (Violation of Structure - Point B) @ $97.53. Confirmation of Wave comes once Price Broke Point A to Push Higher to Point C where it stalls now! Now, using the Fibonacci Retracement Tool, we can see that if $130 stands to be our new Higher High, price should be looking to make a Higher Low by Retracing to the Fib Entry Zone between $119.19 - $113.77! -Once Price confirms the Correction Wave, we see the RSI cross Above 50 -Price is now trading Above 200 EMA *AREA OF CAUTION* -Price created quite a Price Gap between $110 - $112 so we could possibly see price make a another 38.2% retracement to Fill The Gap before moving Higher!! Earnings & Revenue Due Wednesday Aug. 28th.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by Novi_Fibonacci
4
Bearish Wedge + 61.8% Retracement - AJHere I have AUD/JPY on the 4Hr Chart! Since Prices decline, we see Price after making its New Lower Low @ 90.116 and has made a steady Fibonacci Retracement to the Golden Ratio Zone being our Fib Entry Zone! All along the way, creating Higher Highs and Lows forming a Bearish Wedge! Price is unable to Close above 97.472 being the 61.8% level, so I suspect we will see price continue DOWN! *Potential Sell Entries will come once price Breaks and Closes below the Rising Support of the Bearish Wedge!
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
B/C Correction for E/G Before Descent To .8400?!Here I have EUR/GBP on the 4Hr Chart! Ever since EUR/GBP made its transition into a Downtrend from the High @ .86248 to Lower High @ .85928, Price has been strong on the decline eventually giving Break to the .8510 - .8500 Area. This Correction Wave, based on the Fib Trend Ext Tool, has eyes on the Range Target of .84409 - 8405! Before the Final Extension can happen, I suspect Price will need to make a Retracement to the Fib Entry Zone @ .84976 - .85133! *Golden Zone @ .85032 - .85087 After which I will be looking to take Sell Opportunities to finish the Wave! Indicators: -Price Trading Below DSR -Price Trading Below 200 EMA -DSR + EMA leading to "Death Cross" -RSI Below 50 -BBTrend Printing Red Bars
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
Bitcoin - The dump before the massive pump !!!By now a lot of traders and investors are very nervous about Bitcoin's next move, and justifiably, I don't think many people saw this particular setup coming, although it is normal for Bitcoin to have such volatility. However, In the above chart, we see a particular situation which could present itself with various moves and targets. This is combined with a possible Black Swan event (meaning large scale military conflict) or even significant loss of confidence in the petro dollar, due to external influence such as BRICS and the mere fact that the USA is printing more $$$ into their way into oblivion and hyper-inflation. Why does it matter if the USD takes a hit? Unfortunately at this current point in time, Bitcoin seems to be +80% correlated with the S&P500. Thus, we are at a critical point in the market where, based on previous price action (chart history) and some issues that have affected and/or will affect the market, we now have 5x Potential targets as follows: Target #1 = Daily FVG+OB: Range between $57,736.05 to $59,535.00 Target #2 = Daily Gap: Range between $45,288.65 to $46,800.00 Target #3 = Daily Gap: Range between $44,396.50 to $45,242.12 Target #4 = Daily FVG+OB: Range between $43,399.98 to $44,331.10 Target #5 = Daily FVG+OB: Range between $40,300.24 to 41,394.34 Target #1 is where the current price is centered inside a DAILY FVG + OB. This would be the optimal reversal point, however going by my Level count, we are still in Level 2 which means an inevitable drop again to a lower price point, either within the Lower FVG+OB range between $52,088.00 to $54,476.47 or to one of the lower targets #2 through to 5. My guess is there will be another dump, either due to some financial issue or possible military action in the Middle East or Ukraine. I labelled this as Possibility #1 in the chart above. Target #2 is where price action could come down to one of the Daily Gaps and then reverse. I see this as a low probability move, especially due to the fact that Bitcoin has an irritating habit of retracing back to 98% of it's previous high. Target #3, again, could come down to one of the Daily Gaps and then reverse. Target #4, is a high probability reversal point where due to the Daily FVG + OB being where most of the liquidity would be held, seems the most logical target before a solid reversal. I have labelled this as Possibility #2. Target #5, is a high probability reversal point due to the Daily FVG+OB as well as it being at the 98% retracement point that Bitcoin seems to so often follow. I have labelled this as Possibility #3. Therefore at this point in time, due to the many issues currently under the microscope together with potential conflict escalation in the Middle East and/or Ukraine, and the level count showing a level 2, I see it highly probable that the current boxed reversal zone will be invalidated and we will achieve a much lower reversal point more than likely between Possibility #2 and Possibility #3. Note that I am still very bullish on this, even though the DAILY EMA shows BEARISH trend, it is only temporary as the WEEKLY EMA is still very much BULLISH ! I shall update when price action reveals more useful information.
Long
by Market-Pip-Factory
2
Cup & Handle Forming!! - GUHere I have GBP/USD on the 1 Hr chart! Price dipped down into the Support Zone that was recently used in the beginning of July making its Low @ 1.2707! Afterwards, price came right back up to make an Equal High @ 1.28404 forming quite a popular Reversal Pattern, the Cup & Handle!! Now this PA formed the "Bowl" and after the Equal High, using the Fib Retracement Tool, we can see Price made a 61.8% Retracement beginning the formation of the "Handle"! This Higher Low tells us that if this Fib Retracement holds, we could be seeing the end of this Downtrend and the beginning of an Uptrend to the Potential Range Target of 1.29992 - 1.30502! - Bullish Divergence @ Support - Violation of Structure from LL to HL - RSI ABOVE 50
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
4
Divergence: RSI vs. PriceHey everyone! In my years of trading, I've really come to love Reversal Strategies and my favorite is in the form of a DIVERGENCE! Today, I took some time to put together an Educational Video on: 1) What a Divergence Is? 2) How to Spot them! & 3) How to Trade them! I hope you find this helpful! **Tips - Divergence is never good enough to trade alone, YOU NEED CONFIRMATION! - The longer the Divergence takes, the more reliable it is - Change in Momentum is KEY!
Education
by Novi_Fibonacci
6
4 Stages of Price Delivery (ICT Concepts)In this video I go through the 4 stages of price delivery as it pertains to ICT Concepts. Generally, the market is going through either of the following: Consolidation Expansion Retracement Reversal Price starts from a consolidation, where Smart Money accumulates their position, and then an expansion, where price is trending in a direction for the purpose of seeking liquidity and/or manipulating sentiment. From an expansionary phase, price will either retrace to re-accumulate orders and expand again, or have a complete reversal. Now, it is important to note that price is fractal, meaning the signatures you see on a lower timeframe perspective could also be seen on a higher timeframe perspective. In a singular candlestick, there can be multiple phases of price delivery happening. Once one can fit all these pieces together in regard to how market makers book price, one can have a clear insight into where price is likely going and where it likely won't go again, all with a high degree of accuracy. Thanks for watching and reading! - R2F
Education
by Road_2_Funded
2
ASX looks set to retrace from resistanceThe ASX 200 cash market enjoyed its most bullish day in seven on Thursday. But like the SPI 200 futures contract, it met resistance before pausing. The daily chart shows that a double top formed around the June 26 high and trend resistance. And as it's not unusual to see a market retrace against a strong move, and we have an NFP report looming which could suppress volatility, we're looking for prices to retrace lower against yesterday's rally. Bears could target the 20-day EMA between the weekly and monthly pivot point, with a stop above yesterday's high.
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
Has EUR/USD Bottomed-Out???Here I have EUR/USD on the 4Hr Chart! Now we see Price on EU has made a sort of "Rounded Bottom" making its official LOW @ 1.06660 Now with Price struggling with the Resistance Zone @ ( 1.08441 - 1.08266 ) it is beginning to form what looks to be a Potential CUP & HANDLE PATTERN!! This pattern after the completion of the "Bowl" is typically followed by the formation of the "Handle". This will be considered a HIGHER LOW which should be followed by Bullish momentum to the Top of the Cup (Resistance Zone) again, then to BREAK and possibly continue HIGHER!! -The RSI is showing that price is Over-Bought which tells me we could see price needing to make a decline! -Strengthening the Bullish Bias on this idea is also backed by the fact price is now trading ABOVE the 200 EMA! *Before we can confirm this is a Cup & Handle Pattern, we must see Price make a retracement from this High to the ( 1.07751 - 1.07647 ) Range for potential BUY positions! **If Price decides to Break Below our Fib Entry Zone, The potential Cup and Handle Pattern will be INVALIDATED!!
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
USDCHF: Recent Trendline Breakout, Temporarily BullishPrice has recently broken out of the (D) descending channel. It then pushed up to meet the (D) 50% Fib retracement level and proceeded to the downside to retest support. The price has now broken out of the (4H) downtrend line. I anticipate the price will retest and reject this level of support, and temporarily continue to the upside. **Rationale:** L1: ~ Break of channel (D) L2: ~ Retest of support (D) ~ Impulse wave completion L3: ~ Break of trendline (4H) ~ Retest of support **Disclaimer:** My trading ideas are market predictions and therefore should be viewed as such. As an intraday trader (scalper), I use my observations to identify potential trade opportunities on the higher time frames. I then aim to pinpoint key entry points on the lower time frames. Entries should always be verified by additional confirmations. ** Annotations:** Categories: 1. Naming: (N1) 2. Labeling: (L1) 3. Forecasting: (F1) Sub-categories: 1. Naming: (N1.1) 2. Labeling: (L1.1) 3. Forecasting: (F1.1) --- #scalping #intraday
Long
by Forexity
3
GOLD Retracement 10.06.2024After a drop on Friday a retracement is quite possible. Gold drop heavily after the data showed that the Central Bank in China stopped buying. After this reversal the price could move upwards to the 61.8% of the whole downward movement. __________________________ Risk Warning: Trading in CFDs is highly speculative and carries a high level of risk. It is possible to lose all of your invested capital. These products may not be suitable for everyone, and you should ensure that you fully understand the risks taking into consideration your investment objectives, level of experience, personal circumstances as well as personal resources. Speculate only with funds that you can afford to lose. Seek independent advice if necessary. Please refer to our Risk Disclosure. BDSwiss is a trading name of BDS Markets and BDS Ltd. BDS Markets is a company incorporated under the laws of the Republic of Mauritius and is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission of Mauritius ( FSC ) under license number C116016172, address: 6th Floor, Tower 1, Nexteracom Building 72201 Ebene. BDS Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Seychelles (FSA) under license number SD047, address: Suite 3, Global Village, Jivan’s Complex, Mont Fleuri, Mahe, Seychelles. Payment transactions are managed by BDS Markets (Registration number: 143350) Disclaimer
TVC:GOLDLong
by Stuart_Cowell
CADJPY | Short H4 | Market Exec |Technical Confluences for Trade: - Stochastics are in Overbought Conditions on H4 a time-frame. - Price action is reversed off the Supply Zone - Targeting the other Demand Zone - Price action looks like it will retrace first before grinding up higher. Suggested Trade: Entry @ Area of Interest 113.70 - 114.20 SL @ 114.92 TP 1 @ 112.92 (Close Half-Position & move SL to Entry level once TP1 is achieved) TP 2 @ 111.82 Risk-to-Reward @ Approx. 2.06 (Depending on Entry Level) ________________________________ Boosts 🚀, Follows ✌️, Shares 🙌 & Comments ✍️ are much appreciated! If you have any ideas or charts, do share them in the 'Comments' section below and we can discuss our perspectives to improve or strengthen our strategies. If you want something analyzed, do drop me a DM. :D ________________________________ Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks. Any websites / brokers / applications suggested here are also provided as informational purpose only. ________________________________
Short
by weekendanalyst
S&P500 Retracement 31.05.2024U.S. Indices: Friday's Jump 31.05.2024! What's next? S&P500 H1 Chart Remarks and Technical Insights: - A reversal, crossing the 30-period MA on its way up potentially ending the downtrend. - Confirmation of the bullish divergence (RSI: higher lows, Price: lower lows). - The index is near the upper band of the 50- period Bollinger Bands indicating resistance for moving further to the upside. - Retracement to the 61.8 Fibo level (back to the 61.8% of the total movement to the upside is more probable. Target Level is near 5,265 USD Less probable alternative scenario could be the breakout of the 5,300 USD resistance pushing the index more to the upside with target level near 5,330 USD. __________________________________________________________________________________ Risk Warning: Trading in CFDs is highly speculative and carries a high level of risk. It is possible to lose all of your invested capital. These products may not be suitable for everyone, and you should ensure that you fully understand the risks taking into consideration your investment objectives, level of experience, personal circumstances as well as personal resources. Speculate only with funds that you can afford to lose. Seek independent advice if necessary. Please refer to our Risk Disclosure. BDSwiss is a trading name of BDS Markets and BDS Ltd. BDS Markets is a company incorporated under the laws of the Republic of Mauritius and is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission of Mauritius ( FSC ) under license number C116016172, address: 6th Floor, Tower 1, Nexteracom Building 72201 Ebene. BDS Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Seychelles (FSA) under license number SD047, address: Suite 3, Global Village, Jivan’s Complex, Mont Fleuri, Mahe, Seychelles. Payment transactions are managed by BDS Markets (Registration number: 143350)
BLACKBULL:SPX500Short
by Stuart_Cowell
SPY Fibonacci Price Theory And BreakOut BarsThis instructional video teaches you the basics of Fibonacci Price Theory in conjunction with Breakout Bars and how price is the ultimate indicator. Throughout this video, I try to provide instruction on key elements related to the Fibonacci Price Theory (Unique & Standout Highs/Lows). Additionally, I've also included Breakout Bars and Fibonacci Price Retracement concepts. What I really hope you learn from this video is to see price as the true ultimate indicator for your trading decisions. Using technical analysis techniques is fine, but use price as the key element when trying to confirm or reject your trading ideas. I hope this helps you understand that price, action, and reaction through trends, peaks, and troughs are the most important components of the chart. Everything else is peripheral.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
3