Elliot waves meets Fibonacci [Educational]Hello everyone,
today I like to share how I use elliot waves combined with fibonacci to analyze the market.
The standard rules are:
- Wave 2 can now be lower then the start of wave 1
- Wave 3 should be the longest
- Wave 4 should not breach the high of wave 1
But to have a more objective view there are also price targets to be reached within the different waves. It's a complex subject to show in one chart, so feel free to ask in the comment section if you have any questions.
Retracementlevels
Double Fibo 5395Coincidence of 0.50 retracement from ATH drop and 0.62 of last selloff leg both smack on at 5395. Got 5371 today, so close, Iran surprised us, again.
PPI, CPI prints coming this week, Tues and Weds. Any further disappointment > big dump. Be Real Carefull about Longs!
IRCTC: Strong Q1 Performance and Key Technical Levels to Watch💰 IRCTC reports a 32.5% increase in net profit for Q1 FY25, indicating strong growth
🔄 Wait to Retrace from major support level
📈 Potential bullish breakout above 955, with resistances at 1002, 1057, and 1139
📉 Watch for bearish breakout if support fails
📊 Follow for analysis!
NASDAQ 100 Short Term Correction Risk AnalysisIt is important to know when the NASDAQ:NDX and a few of its components are overextended and that a minor correction, aka retracement, is imminent. It doesn't really matter if you can guess the exact day, but it does matter that you can see the risk coming so that you can plan to take action on open positions and plan ahead for new positions for swing or position trading.
The Weekly Chart above shows where very strong support will kick in. Somewhere within the Green Rectangle, the index is highly likely to find support. This is a very strong support level since it is a yearly high, and that defines where fundamentals were before this earnings season. The only thing that could derail it is an UNKNOWN negative event for the Buy Side Institutions. That is a very RARE event. So that is the long-term view.
Just for fun, let's check the Monthly DPO Cycle chart. Exactly the same line as weekly but in a more stark perspective. The cycle line is bending which is a good pattern, but it can easily peak and go sideways, which would create a dip into the index's support level if a correction goes all the way to or into that rectangle.
Okay, now the daily chart to determine the short-term or intermediate-trend support level. The first higher Rectangle is weak support. Second, lower Rectangle is moderate. There are heavily weighted stocks that have fundamentals at or within these levels as well.
BluetonaFX - USDCHF Trade IdeaHi Traders,
There is a short opportunity on the USDCHF 1D chart. The market is currently in a retracement wave of the bear flag break, and there is an opportunity for a short entry to target the demand zone to take profit.
The demand zone area is 0.88600–0.88202.
Please do not forget to like, comment, and follow, as your support greatly helps.
Thank you for your support.
BluetonaFX
PG on downtrend continuanceOn the 2 hr chart, PG was fighting heavy resistance for month. The supply /resistance zone is
on the chart from the Luxalgo indicator. Multiple touches but the zone was not broken.
Price has retraced down beyond the 0.5 Fib level. PG is tracking well with XLP the consumer
staples ETF shown as a thin black line on the chart.
The Luxaglo Echo indicator, a predictive AI tool suggests that price will retest the 0.5 Fib level
and then descend to the support /demand zone with a volume mean of 149.5.
I will take a short position with put contracts with a strike of $ 154 above the Fib 0.5 level
with DTE of 6 = 5/26.
For the stock position, I will set a sell limit of $153 also with a stop loss of $ 154 with the
the target for 2/3 of the position at $ 150 and the remaining third is to watch to see if the
zone brakes. I believe that this is a safe trade in a low-volatility stock set to capture
profit advantaging the prevailing trend running in concert with the subsector ETF.
predictive analysis of carboruniv in dcb.NSE:CARBORUNIV made all time high previous week but couldn't sustained above the previous ath and closed below. Now expecting some small correction before make a new high. marked short term retracement/demand zones.
Disclaimer - This chart analysis is only for educational study purpose. Do proper research before trade/investment or consult with your financial advisor. This opinion isn't a trade/investment recommendation. SEBI unregistered.
EURUSD Short RetracementThis is a total break down of my EURUSD analogy of the coming movements in the market.
Key Zones of liquidity is crucial to be tested again watch closely.
AVAX Retracement Short Trade Looks solid! You can see what to do. This is my plan for AVAX short term. Hopefully this isn't a full reversal and just a retracement but time will tell. I would much prefer being short at this time and this level then opening a long. Lets see how it plays out. Good luck
Not to be mistaken as financial advise, this is just me testing out a trade idea based on multiple time frames and volume analysis . This has been a powerful uptrend so this is very risky but TP profits often and you can use the different fibs as TP zones if you like but they are placed for my use and not traditional fin levels.
Sorry for this being so late.
Monero Recaptures Key Retracement LevelMonero KRAKEN:XMRUSD continues to outperform the other major cryptocurrencies through this crypto bear market cycle. Last week Monero entered a bullish trend when both price and Momentum (Lagging Span/Chikou) closed above the Daily Ichimoku cloud. This is the confirmation of a new bull trend starting. Momentum has since gotten back inside the cloud but over the weekend Price held the key Level of 139. 139 was the 50% Retracement Resistance of the FTX debacle crash. Price broke the Resistance on November 30th and then came back to retest the level solidly on December 17th now as Support.
Furthermore, let's look at Monero's performance relative to others.
Measured by the "pre-FTX high" Monero is down -10.37%:
Bitcoin remains down -22.48%:
Ethereum remains down -29.89%:
"Bitcoin is surveillance" As regulation begins to take the center focus of cryptocurrency more users will shift to value in privacy. I'll leave you all with a meme:
Classic "Yum" Pattern on Nasdaq futures todayToday those day trading the Nasdaq futures could clearly observe the classic "Yum" pattern emerge on the chart of CME_MINI:NQ1! Nasdaq future. This follows a touch of major Resistance; the 50% Retracement of the August high to October low following a major JPow rally from yesterday setting up a double top at said Retracement level.
Bullish Spike on Intel (INTC)This morning's 10am scan yielded bullish price action spikes on both AMD and INTC. I like the level that Intel NASDAQ:INTC is holding to for a swing trade. The first target will be a retest of this week's high.
In the longer term after a very long bearish trend the chip makers have begun to turn. It is somewhat "late" in the turn from October but there are now confirmed signs of a possible reversal. Daily chart:
USDCAD Retracing Fall from an Ascending Wedge LONGFX:USDCAD
USDCAD on the 15-minute chart in the past week fell in a breakdown from an ascending wedge
and is now sitting on support. I anticipate a reversal to retrace that downtrend with targets
at the Fib 0.5 and Fib 0.618 levels ( also confluent with some horizontal pivot point resistances ).
Targets just below these points of interest are 1.3083 and 1.3104. The stop loss would be
just below the support zone at 1.3. Entry on a buy stop over 1.3044 above the minor resistance.
This is expected to be a short duration day trade setup.
IS RIDE heading up hill (LONG)RIDE has finished a downtrend the past ten trading days
and now appears to a retracing that downtrend.
The upside here is about 16% to the mid Fibonacci level.
The MACD shows an early K / D line crossover as a lagging
indicator.
The RSI is in midrange being neither oversold or overbought.
I see this as a setup to trade a swing long trade or a call option
for a 4 week expiration at a price 5-10 % above the current
market price. NASDAQ:RIDE
Structural Progress Remains Elusive for BTCUSDPrimary Chart: Showing Major Retracement Levels for BTCUSD's Entire Bear-Market Decline with Accompanying Down Trendline
Since November 2021 to early January 2022, equities and cryptocurrencies have experienced a bear market. The selloff has been more pronounced in crypto assets than in equities generally, although certain segments of equity markets have paralleled (in percentage terms) the massive declines seen in crypto.
BTCUSD Has Not Reached Key Fibonacci Retracements Like Equity Indices Have
The Primary Chart at the top of this article shows the major retracement levels for BTC's entire bear-market decline. Note how BTC's 43% rally from June 2022 lows has still not meaningfully approached its .382 retracement level of its entire bear-market decline. By inference, if BTC hasn't been able to approach its lowest .382 retracement level, it has come nowhere near its .50 or .618 retracement levels, labeled on the Primary Chart above.
Supplementary Chart A below shows an example of one of the world's leading equity indices, the US S&P 500, having reached and even surpassed critical retracement levels in the powerful rally off June 2022 lows. Whether this rally is a bear rally or an actual trend reversal is hotly debated in the financial media, but the outcome remains uncertain despite confident forecasts in both directions.
More importantly, note how the S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) has exceeded both its .382 retracement and its .50 retracement of its bear-market decline. In fact, it is approaching its .618 retracement of its YTD decline. When price closes in on a key level of multi-month importance, it often will find a way to touch that level given the magnetic effect it has.
Supplementary Chart A: Two Key Fibonacci Retracement Levels for the YTD Decline in S&P 500 ( OANDA:SPX500USD )
Key Levels in Proximity to BTCUSD's Current Price
As shown in Supplementary Chart B, BTC has remained in a parallel channel off the June 17, 2022 lows. Some might argue this technically works as a bear flag pattern—confirmation would be a downward breakout that holds below the upward trendline forming the base of the channel.
In any event, this channel has contained price since mid-June 2022 lows. The return line (top line of the channel) lies near $25,700 to $26,282. This should prove to be strong resistance in the coming week. The lower line ranges from about $22,200 to $23,100, which should prove to be support—and given that the downtrend line remains intact, this should also be watched for a break.
The .382 retracement of the second leg of this bear market lies at $29,297. If BTC can break above its downward trendline —indeed, this would be a feat should it occur—the .382 should then also be watched to determine how price responds. This should serve as decent resistance at least on any initial attempt to push above it. but traders and market watchers should remain open-minded and flexible to see whether BTC could break above this level as equity indices have done. With FOMC minutes being published Wednesday
Supplementary Chart B: BTCUSD's Down Trendline and Fibonacci Retracements for the Second Leg of This Bear-Market Decline Starting at March 28, 2022, Swing Highs
Ichimoku Cloud Remains Bearish with a Hint of a Change
The Ichimoku Cloud can sometimes offer an additional perspective. The cloud remains bearish—red and downward sloping. (The mechanics of the cloud's color changes are beyond the scope of this article.) The could twists and turns green, however, in late August 2022 / early September 2022. Such cloud formations can suggest the potential for a shift in trend—but no guarantee.
Currently, price is meeting powerful resistance along the upper edge of the cloud's SSB (Senkou Span B) line. See Supplementary Chart C (below). This line works as resistance from about $24,700 to $25,000. This SSB line represents the mid-point of a 52-day period on the daily chart. Several candles have touched, briefly pierced, and then failed back below this key level. This shows that the level is holding a strong resistance for now.
Supplementary Chart C: BTCUSD's Ichimoku Cloud Chart on the Daily Time Frame
The weekly Ichimoku Chart remains more bearish in appearance. The cloud remains thick and red with no trace of a bullish twist in the future that could imply a possibility for clear skies ahead for BTC. The weekly chart also shows price significantly below the cloud, and even well below the Kijun line (blue), while having risen above the Tenkan line (gold). See Supplementary Chart D (below).
Supplementary Chart D: BTCUSD's Ichimoku Cloud Chart on the Weekly Time Frame
The author has no open position at the time of publication (August 17, 2022) on BTCUSD or BTC-related investment products such as BTC futures, BTC ETFs (BITO) or BTC derivatives.
This article is intended to present a relatively unbiased technical analysis of BTC's
DISCLAIMER: This post is published solely for educational / entertainment purposes and does not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation and cannot account for any person's particular financial circumstances. The author would not want other investors / traders to lose money by relying *solely* on this idea rather than doing their own due diligence. Before entering any trade, please evaluate the risks of (i) the instrument / security being traded, (ii) the type of trade and its timeframe, (iii) risks inherent in that type of trade and its time frame, (iv) the inherent risks of shorting securities (presenting unlimited risk without hard stops in place), (v) the inherent risks of trading options, leveraged ETFs, and cryptocurrencies, and (vi) all financial risks arising each person's personal financial circumstances.
CME:BTC1!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
COINBASE:BTCUSD
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
FTX:BITOUSD
SP:SPX OANDA:SPX500USD VANTAGE:SP500
BTCUSDT 15 Min Possible scenarioAccording to my analysis, the fifth wave of the downtrend on BTC should be complete and now the wave A scenario should playout. I have taken into account two possible retracement level of the 5th wave. Price maybe heading to a 38.2% retracement ($39,805)before continuing downwards or a 50% retracement ($ 40,200) before continuation. Lets see.
N.B. This is only my personal opinion, not to be considered as financial or investment advice even remotely.
ETHUSDT is testing the 0.618 Fibonacci LevelThe price got a rejection from the M's neckline as I told on the previous analysis exactly on 2830$. On the daily timeframe, the price is still inside a descending channel above an important support 2400$.
The market printed a double top on 3250$.
On the lower timeframe, the price is testing the 0.618 Fibonacci level as new support after the breakout from the 2700$
How to approach?
For a bullish scenario, the price needs to have a clear breakout from 3k resistance with Volume, and retest it as new support.
Otherwise,
If the price is going to lose the weekly support, above 2400, we could see another bearish impulse and the next valid support is 2k
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
ACCACC took support @ 50% fib retracement level i:e 2238.10 & made low of 2239 & reversed.
ACC could be bought with mentioned stoploss & target.
ES: bullish outlookHello everyone
Before we start a discussion, it is my pleasure to read your opinion on this post's comment section and support this idea with your likes if you enjoyed it !
I label possible Elliot count on the chart.
The price finished a 5 waves pack and now, I expect at least a bullish corrective wave.
the target and the stop loss are shown on the chart.
I use the 50% retracement for my target.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/19/2022 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2022
- PR High: 15248.50
- PR Low: 15192.50
Evening Stats (As of 12:00 AM)
- Gap: = N/A
- Session Open ATR: 336.40
- Volume: 61k
- Open Int: 234k
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -10.0% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as a range)
- Long: 16677
- Mid: 15333
- Short: 14961
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
Retrace of the Retracement in BTC + updated shorter time frame fibs to color instead of all green lines so you can correlate what fib levels are to what and realize chart is busy but if you can simplify it to support and resistance i think it starts to make sense. squeezed frame to include more of past and drew out exact path per fib levels btc would travel if it followed the longer term fib. long term fib still relevant until it hits the 3 fib. thought it played out this weekend but fell short. the way to know is if btc holds on a retest of the shorter time from 1 level after retesting the .618 down or in this case up from the 1.414. this is common in price action according to fibs the way they are placed here. you could say it's the hidden lines of support and resistance for bitcoin and actually for all traded assets liquid or illiquid meaning it's a PATTERN!. i know this hurts the brain to realize we have all been duped but I have now put well over 10k hours studying this and can say with absolute certainty this is how all assets move. period. if we follow the most recent path we are going to go retest the 1.414 and inevitably the 1.618 of the shorter time frame fibs or most recent i should say (the more horizontal levels). surprised not getting more inquiries with this post considering the accuracy and precision is the highest level of TA ever achieved. and i say that humbly but when you can place a trade with a limit order at a level with certainty the level it is going to next then what more is there? here is the truth... all assets trade in a neverending repeating pattern that moves from fib level to fib level and supply vs demand merely alters the shape and form. the reason everyone misses it is it can be any size or shape or direction and they are fractal meaning in one daily candle the pattern might exist 10
times or infinite if fathomable. and last but not least it is like an mc escher work of art from the perspective of vantage points and so at any point the price is from the vantage of up and down at the same time. now we understand why trading is so hard for majority of people that attempt it.
BTC right on trackanalysis on point. looks like it might ride the trendline to the 3 and 1.618 (longer time frame and shorter time frame fibs)
USDJPY watching for long tradesLooking at jumping on a long trade if we keep rejecting that 114 area because we still are in bullish territory and we may see another upside rally, so huge potential for profit if can produce a nice entry... obviously move those stops to entry level as soon as 10 pips or so in profit.
