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Retracementlevels

Long Setup on Trendline RetestEURCAD just recently experienced a rejection from our outlined resistance area, failing to break it once again. This provides us with another opportunity to take a potential long trade on the pullback. Looking at the fib retracements, the 0.618 level seems to correspond well with our ascending trendline (which is exactly the perfect place to open our positions). My bullish bias will be changed if we see a breakout below of the ascending trendline. This all comes down to one single question - can it hold?
Long
by Proszi
EURAUD Mid Term Sell Bias trade idea Australia’s strong economic ties with China too and we all know this virus named "Coronavirus" is actually not only affecting the people of china but whole financial markets around the world. Equities have fallen, bond rises and all the safe haven got a pump upward couple of days earlier. Risk currency like Aussie had trouble and safe heaven like yellow metal, the yen had the most benefit. It's been a while now we are seeing how far this minor pair has reached. Nothing is permanent and we are facing a temporary natural disaster which may somehow end soon or later (doctor gotta work fast for the antidotes jk :D). I assume if risk appetite gets better there are some possibilities that this exhausted bull will switch its direction lower. I know it's not a one hundred percent idea but at this point either the market of this minor pair is consolidating, range or a reversal is imminent but a strong bullish upward momentum isn't what I feel at this point (my own opinion). Technically we can see the price has hit the R3 of the weekly pivot and by seeing Fibonacci retracement it looks lucrative by seeing the good possible reward on the downside for this pair. This pair did pump higher more early morning just to know the National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence Index rates were dropped which let us know that the business sector wasn't too confident at the time. Aussie will have its inflation reports out tomorrow which if actual is better then forecast and previous could help our trade bais further and as we all know global risk sentiment getting positive with the rise of risk appetite is what we should take into consideration too. (Idea not guaranteed financial advice.) Comment your idea and plan too if any. Peace out!
Short
by Anatta0
When will the SHOP craze end?SHOP has been on a tear since the crash in December last year, currently up 160% in the last six months. It’s easy enough to cry ‘bubble’ at a glance, especially when zooming out reveals a jaw-dropping 1600%+ return in the last 3 ½ years. The stock is experiencing growth that surpasses even AMZN, and in most ways appears to exhibit the same exponential increase in earnings. Comparing a bit, Shopify has not yet reached the revenue that Amazon was pulling in back in 2005, but at its current pace this will be overcome within a year. Prior to that period in the early 2000s Amazon saw similar increase in its stock price, followed by a long period of volatility and decline until half of those gains had been clawed back. It takes time for the gamblers to move on and for more stable investors to show up and provide a bottom. This is the growing pains of every wildly successful investment. Shopify is no exception to this principle. Currently where it sits, Shopify is twice as expensive as Amazon was at a similar point, but this makes sense given that we’ve seen the outcome of Amazon already and expectations are increased. My reservations about SHOP are entirely due to the pace of this stock’s increase, not due to the fundamental reasoning being wrong. I feel that referring to SHOP as a bubble is akin to calling Bitcoin a bubble. It may be experiencing a bubble for the moment, but it’s a natural event when logarithmic growth collides with linear systems. Events like this don’t end with the bubble bursting unless the timeframe of the evaluation is as short a duration as the hype and despair. The expected outcome for this stock is very different based on if we’re speaking of six months or six years from now. I’ve marked a few spots on this graph that I think are worth watching. The top arrow represents the line of the current trend. Breaking this means we will likely drop to the second arrow for a small correction. The pullback I’m referring to though is quite a bit larger. The 3rd and 4th arrow down are where I expect us to return to, and the point at which I would be willing to invest in SHOP for the long-term. The 3rd is the 200-day MA which would represent another solid leg up in the price, while the bottom is SHOP’s lowest trend-line which would come of frenzied selling. Overall from the numbers SHOP seems an incredibly solid choice, but I cannot buy into hype. Every moment of excitement is counterbalanced with despair, and the tab is being run up very quickly here.
NYSE:SHOPShort
by avidbrandy
1
Yea, about that BNB coin.. Perfect price analysisDon't bet the bank on it.. Cause it's comming tumbling down really fast real soon.. Down to 15k sats or about 10 USD at least.. After that, sure it could find support.. I'm not against the coin, cause it serves a purpose, of gas.. On a platform with lot of potential, marketing and a great team behind CZ.. But we have seen bubbles before... and this is the one of begin 2019 Sure let it blow up and prove me wrong.. But it's still PA and TA... price action and technical analysis telling RSI is wayyyy overbought.. the bid is getting crowded.. Not a sell yet.. but sellers are circling around as a bird preying.. Good huntin.. crypto cowboys and cowgirls
Short
by TradeReact
1
AUD/JPY price action, 5 key levels to watchOANDA:AUDJPY As you can notice recently, price action appears often disconnected with fundamentals. As for example the sharp retracement after the RBA no rate increase announcement or the last retracement in progress despite all news about US-China difficulties to reach a deal. In other terms, we may say that the Forex market is definitely no longer WYSIWYG (What You See Is What You Get). For that reason, I am considering very cautiously the current AUD JPY retracement keeping in mind that we will get likely a further impulse in extension to the first one. % key levels to watch in that 240 minutes chart
Short
by parisseine
Impulse and retracement, the danger of the one trend approachOANDA:GBPJPY 3 days ago I published my Bearish target for GBP that was reached yesterday @141 level. it is critical in a trading plan to anticipate retracement. Retracement is a necessary step to initiate a new impulse but what I would like to simply illustrate is why retracement can be so brutal and potentially very damaging by nature. On that 120 minutes chart we can see the downtrend impulse created by the bearish signal when the pair crossed below the 143 level. It was my expected signal to enter new Short positions. A Central Bank rate decision is a key Forex event. Given the Brexit context, many investors were anticipating yesterday a drop and that context has created a new down leg to that initial impulse to reach my defined target. That target area is a very dangerous place to trade for the following reasons: As many investors are willing to participate to the downtrend they place Short orders but because it's a very important event usually with conservative stop loss. All these orders placed very far from the beginning of the last impulse from around 142.50 have created a HUGE BUY volume opportunity! All things being equal Short orders are Long for the counterpart. Any retracement in that context can be initiated by the available volume in the first place. Then when the retracement starts many investors can change their mind and reverse their positions. It is fueling the strength of the retracement and by hitting Sellers stop loss the retracement is amplified and exaggerated by High-Frequency Trading. Finally, the retracement of the pair was so boosted that is has reached above the day high As a conclusion investor shall be very cautious when they join lately a market impulse and it is as well perillous to trade against the retracement trend as it can conversely just add power to it. In other words, investors are trading against their positions.
Education
by parisseine
US 30: EW3 Starting up Retracement to ATH?Midterms Tuesday. From MW: "Since 1946, there have been 18 midterm elections. Stocks were higher 12 months after every single one. Every single one. That’s 18 for 18. Even though we’ve had every possible political combination in the past 72 years. Republican president with Democratic Congress. Democratic president with Republican Congress. Republican president and Congress. Democratic president and Congress. Since 1946, stocks have risen an average of 17% in the year after a midterm. And if you measure from the yearly midterm lows, the results are even better. From their lows, stocks jumped an average of 32% over the next 12 months. For perspective, that’s more than double the average performance for stocks in all years. We’re also entering the third year of a presidential term, which is historically the strongest year for stocks." Dow and Sand P flat for the year now. Time to get back on track. Economy = strong, no recession in sight. Earnings - good, mostly real good. Mostly. Some surprises. IF we are in an EW impulse wave THEN we had wave 1 last week for 1k pips and wave 2 pullback Friday, lasting into AM Monday session, when the bulls showed up. Looks like we got a wave 3 starting up which I charted at 1.618 Fibo projecting extension to 26260 area with soft landing on wave 4 (alternating wave theory) and a fifth wave bullup to retest alltime highs. Call me crazy, but the impossible has already happened this year- twice. The zigzag correction has run its course, movin' on up! 2019 should run pretty strong until May when the cracks will begin to show. Subsequent bear will likely be longer than average bear, stronger than average bear, Yogi. Here's the reference link: www.marketwatch.com This is not investment advice, trade at your own risk, good luck!
DJ:DJILong
by DaddySawbucks
1
USDCHF: Time for a retracement soon ?The usdchf hit a low of 0.9540 before retracing to 0.9960 . That's a whopping 460 pip of retracement. Thus what's the revelation? U can never be too sure about the extent of how much a currency pair would retrace and if (surprise surprise) it could eventually even start an uptrend on its own. Such is the reality. The analysis is as good as it gets at the point of time but making provisions for different scenarios to play out and all the stop checks the trader has put in place to ensure that the analysis is still on track is essential for survival in any market. Thus in the case of the usdchf, with key levels taken out at 0.9890 and 0.9850 it actually opens the door to lower supports at 0.9790 and 0.97 being revisited again. However, with the longer term trendline at 0.97 holding at the moment, this is at best a retracement to Revelation Trading at the moment. We ultimately trade into the unknown and as usual the market will show us where it eventually wants to go.
Short
by revelationtrading