Price Action Trading: Key ConceptsPrice Action Trading: Key Concepts
Price action is a popular trading method where traders analyse raw price movements on a chart, without relying on technical indicators. Traders identify patterns, trends, and key levels that help them understand market behaviour. This article explores what price action is, the key concepts, and how to get started with a price action strategy.
What Is Price Action Trading?
Price action is the movement of an asset’s price over time, and it’s one of the purest forms of market analysis. When using price action, indicators like moving averages or oscillators take a back seat, with traders focusing solely on the movement of the market itself. In studying how prices behave in real-time or historically, traders can spot trends, patterns, and potential turning points in the market.
At its core, price action is about reading the market’s “story” through its movements. Traders look at how an asset has moved in the past—whether it’s rising, falling, or ranging—to understand what it might do next. This analysis often revolves around key levels, such as support (where prices tend to stop falling) and resistance (where they tend to stop rising).
Because price action relies purely on market data, it offers a clear view of sentiment without the “noise” of external indicators. This makes it a go-to method for traders who prefer a straightforward approach. Price action also can be used in any market—whether it’s forex, stocks, or commodities—and across various timeframes too, from short-term day trading to long-term investing.
Understanding this style isn’t automatic—it requires practice, observation, and an eye for patterns. However, once traders get the hang of it, price action can provide valuable insight into the market’s behaviour and help them analyse future trends.
Key Price Action Concepts
Now, let’s take a look at some core price action concepts.
Support and Resistance
Support and resistance levels are foundational in price action analysis. These are key levels that the market has historically struggled to move past. Support represents a level where the market tends to stop falling, acting like a “floor,” as buying pressure increases. Resistance is the opposite, serving as a “ceiling” where upward movements tend to halt, as selling pressure grows.
Traders use support and resistance to identify potential levels where the market might reverse or pause. If a price breaks through one of these levels, it can signal a continuation of the trend, while a bounce off the level might indicate a reversal.
Trends
At its simplest, a trend shows the direction in which a given market is headed. In an uptrend, prices are making higher highs and higher lows, showing consistent bullish momentum. In a downtrend, the opposite is true: prices make lower lows and lower highs, indicating bearish sentiment.
Swing highs and lows are critical when spotting trends. A swing high is a peak formed when the market moves up and then reverses down. A swing low is the opposite. Tracking these highs and lows allows traders to identify the current trend.
Trendlines and Price Channels
A trendline is a straight line that connects multiple swing highs or swing lows in a trending market. It visually represents the direction of the trend and helps traders spot potential areas where the market may find support or resistance.
When two parallel trendlines are drawn—one connecting swing highs and the other swing lows—it forms a price channel. Channels help traders see the range in which the price is moving, and it’s common for prices to bounce between the upper and lower boundaries of the channel. Breakouts from them can signal a shift in trend direction.
Candlestick Patterns
Candlestick patterns are formed by the movement of price over a specific period and are widely used in price action trading.
Some common candlestick price action trading patterns include:
- Pin Bar/Hammer/Shooting Star: A candle with a long wick and small body, indicating a rejection of higher or lower prices. It can suggest a potential trend reversal.
- Engulfing Pattern: A two-candle pattern where the second candle fully engulfs the previous one, signalling a shift in momentum. A bullish engulfing pattern suggests buyers are taking control, while a bearish engulfing pattern shows sellers are gaining strength.
- Doji: A candle with little to no body, where the open and close prices are nearly identical. It suggests indecision in the market and can signal a potential reversal, depending on where it appears in a trend.
Chart Patterns
Price action chart patterns are shapes that form on a chart, which traders use to determine future price movements. They can indicate the continuation or reversal of a trend.
Some common chart patterns include:
- Head and Shoulders: A reversal pattern that signals a shift from an uptrend to a downtrend (or vice versa). It consists of three peaks, with the middle one being the highest (the "head") and the outer two being lower (the "shoulders").
- Double Top/Double Bottom: These reversal patterns form when the price tests a level twice and fails to break through, indicating a potential reversal.
- Triangles: Symmetrical, ascending, or descending triangles indicate consolidation periods before a breakout.
Breakouts
A breakout occurs when an asset moves outside a defined support, resistance, or trendline level. Breakouts can signal that the market is gaining momentum in a particular direction.
When prices break beyond a support or resistance level, it can suggest that traders are pushing prices in a given direction and that momentum is likely to continue. Traders often watch for breakouts from chart patterns like triangles or channels.
Reversals
A reversal happens when a market trend changes direction. In an uptrend, a reversal would occur when prices stop making higher highs and higher lows and start forming lower lows instead. Reversals are often marked by candlestick patterns or chart patterns like head and shoulders or double top/bottom.
Retracements
A retracement is a temporary reversal in the direction of a trend, where the asset moves against the prevailing trend but eventually continues in the same direction. Traders often use tools like Fibonacci retracement levels to identify potential areas where the market might retrace before resuming its original trend.
Volume
Volume measures how much of an asset is being traded over a certain period. In price action trading, volume is used to confirm the strength of market movements. For example, if the price breaks through a significant resistance level with high volume, it can indicate that the breakout is more likely to be sustained. On the other hand, breakouts on low volume might suggest the move lacks conviction and could reverse.
Volatility
Volatility refers to the degree of price movement in the market over time. Price action traders pay attention to volatility because it can influence how they interpret patterns and levels. In periods of high volatility, an asset may break through key levels quickly, while in low volatility periods, it might stay within a narrow range.
How Traders Read Price Action
Let’s now look at an overview of how the process typically unfolds:
1. Beginning with a Clean Chart
Price action trading doesn’t rely on indicators, so the first step is to clear the chart of anything unnecessary. Traders focus on raw market data, meaning you’ll only initially need candlesticks or bars in a price action chart.
2. Identifying Market Structure
Once the chart is clean, traders assess the market structure. This means figuring out whether the market is trending or ranging. In a trend, prices make consistent highs and lows, moving upwards or downwards. If the market is ranging, the price moves horizontally within a set range between support and resistance levels.
3. Looking for Patterns and Key Levels
Next, traders focus on spotting recurring patterns and identifying key levels where the price has previously reacted. Patterns such as candlestick formations and chart setups (e.g., triangles or head and shoulders) give insight into what the market might do next. These patterns help traders anticipate reversals or breakouts based on past behaviour. Key levels like support and resistance guide where the price might stall or reverse.
4. Analysing Price Movements in Real-Time
As the price moves, traders observe how it reacts to these key levels or patterns. Does it slow down near resistance, or does it break through with momentum? Does it pull back to support before continuing upward? These real-time reactions tell traders whether the market is maintaining its trend or if a reversal could be on the horizon.
5. Confirming with Volume and Volatility
Traders often look at volume and volatility to further validate what’s happening on the chart. Higher volume can suggest stronger market moves, while volatility reveals how quickly the market is shifting. These extra layers of analysis provide confirmation of whether a breakout or reversal is likely to hold.
Building a Price Action Trading Strategy
Creating a price action trading strategy is about developing a personalised approach based on key patterns and setups that resonate with you. The steps mentioned above form the foundation of price action trading. However, traders usually build their own strategy over time, focusing on a handful of setups they find effective.
Initially, traders choose a few concepts to work with and avoid getting overwhelmed by too much information. For example, you could look for pin bars that appear during retracements at support or resistance in line with a trend. Another approach might be identifying a breakout after a double top or bottom, especially if it’s backed by high volume. Alternatively, traders often use candlestick patterns to trade the upper and lower boundaries of a price channel.
Setups like these can be backtested in trading platforms with FXOpen, using historical data to understand why and where certain setups work. It does take time to develop an eye for price action patterns, but it’s worth the effort to be able to identify opportunities well before lagging technical indicators do.
Lastly, risk management is crucial when trading price action. Before you try out any setup, try to understand the best risk management practices for that pattern. For instance, traders might place a stop-loss just beyond a pin bar’s wick or slightly below the lows in a double bottom to limit potential losses if the market moves unexpectedly.
The Bottom Line
Price action offers traders a straightforward way to analyse market movements and make decisions based on real-time data, prioritising repeating patterns rather than indicators. To put price action trading into practice, consider opening an FXOpen account to access more than 700 live markets and our advanced low-cost, high-speed trading environment.
FAQ
What Is Price Action?
The price action meaning refers to the movement of an asset's price over time. Traders analyse these movements, without relying on indicators, to identify trends, patterns, and potential turning points in the market.
How to Read Price Action?
Reading price action involves analysing market movements on a clean chart. Traders identify trends, key levels of support and resistance, and chart and candlestick patterns.
What Is Price Action Trading?
Price action trading is a strategy where traders make decisions based on the raw movements of an asset. Instead of using technical indicators, they focus on chart patterns, trends, and levels of support or resistance to analyse the market.
What Is the M Pattern in Price Action?
The M pattern, or double top, is a bearish reversal pattern that looks like the letter "M." It forms when the price tests a resistance level twice but fails to break through, signalling a potential move downwards.
Do Price Patterns Work?
Price patterns can work, but they are not foolproof. They are often used to identify potential market movements, but outcomes may vary depending on market conditions and other factors.
Do Professional Traders Use Price Action?
Yes, many professional traders use price action as a core part of their trading strategies. It provides a direct way to analyse market behaviour without relying on external indicators.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Retracements
Bullish Butterfly Ascends a Channel w/Underlying Fib LevelsHere I have BINANCE:XRPUSDT on the Weekly Chart!
Beginning of March 2020, BINANCE:XRPUSDT hits its Lowest Low @ .1013
Beginning of April 2021, BINANCE:XRPUSDT hits its Highest High @ 1.9669
For context ~1,800% Increase in 1 Year
Taking the Fibonacci Retracement Tool, we can see that Price made a drop after the Higher High (Point A) to the 78.6% level (Point B), created a Lower Low at the 32.8% (Point C), then was rejected after descending to the 88.6% (Point D) and with this Price Action, formed a Bullish Harmonic Butterfly Pattern!!
Parameters:
X - B .786
A - C .382 / .886
B - D 1.618 / 2.618
X - D 1.27 / 1.618
(B/D and X/D Fall Short)
-Price is continuing to trade Above the 200 EMA
With the short-coming completion of this pattern, sprouts an Ascending Channel that Price now currently is traversing up!
-If Price can continue this upward path, I believe it will battle with the Overlying Resistance Zones that line up with these Fibonacci Levels!
1) .8139 - .9240
(61.8% - 55.9%)
2) 1.2542 - 1.5266
(38.2% - 23.6%)
*Caution to those who see the Ascending Channel break Bearish, because then Price Action could be a signal of a Double Top!
Bitcoin's Recent Battle with Fibbonaci🛡️Hey there, crypto enthusiasts! Let's take a closer look at the recent Bitcoin pump that didn't quite take off as expected. It turns out, we encountered a significant resistance level at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement on the Fibonacci retracement tool. 📊💡
🌐 The Fibonacci Fascination: Before we delve into the recent action, let's touch on the golden tool of technical analysis – the Fibonacci retracement. It's a tool that helps traders identify potential support and resistance levels on a chart based on the Fibonacci sequence.
💰 The Golden Ratio: In this case, we're talking about the golden Fibonacci retracement, the 0.5 level. This level is often seen as a crucial point on the chart. When an asset like Bitcoin retraces to this level, it can act as either strong support or resistance.
📈 The Recent Pump: Bitcoin recently experienced a significant price pump, and many were hopeful that it might lead to a substantial rally. However, the price action encountered resistance right around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level.
🛡️ The Battle at 0.5: This level represents a critical point where traders and algorithms make decisions. It can be a make-or-break point for a potential bullish run.
📊 Fibonacci in Action: To use Fibonacci retracement, simply select the tool on your trading platform, and then click on a significant swing low and drag to a swing high. The tool will automatically plot the retracement levels, including the golden 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level.
📚 Fibonacci Tips: When using Fibonacci retracement, keep these tips in mind:
Look for confluence with other technical indicators.
Consider it a tool in your trading toolbox, not a standalone strategy.
Combine it with your overall trading plan and risk management.
Remember, while Fibonacci retracement is a powerful tool, it's not foolproof, and market dynamics can change rapidly. Stay informed, stay adaptable, and keep honing your trading skills. 🔄📈
Strong Support Below for BoeingThe Daily Chart of NYSE:BA shows where the probable support will halt the selling for Boeing.
The long sideways trend is close to being a platform. The highs, or within the highs of the range, should provide strong support for the stock.
If it dips deeper, it is likely to be temporary and should shift back to the higher area of the sideways trend.
Beginners’ Guide to Asset Allocation and Diversification
Even if you are new to investing, you may already know some of the most fundamental principles of sound investing. How did you learn them? Through ordinary, real-life experiences that have nothing to do with the stock market.
For example, have you ever noticed that street vendors often sell seemingly unrelated products - such as umbrellas and sunglasses? Initially, that may seem odd. After all, when would a person buy both items at the same time? Probably never - and that’s the point. Street vendors know that when it’s raining, it’s easier to sell umbrellas but harder to sell sunglasses. And when it’s sunny, the reverse is true. By selling both items - in other words, by diversifying the product line - the vendor can reduce the risk of losing money on any given day.
If that makes sense, you’ve got a great start on understanding asset allocation and diversification. This publication will cover those topics more fully and will also discuss the importance of rebalancing from time to time.
Asset Allocation
Asset allocation involves dividing an investment portfolio among different asset categories, such as stocks, bonds, and cash. The process of determining which mix of assets to hold in your portfolio is a very personal one. The asset allocation that works best for you at any given point in your life will depend largely on your time horizon and your ability to tolerate risk.
Time Horizon
Your time horizon is the expected number of months, years, or decades you will be investing to achieve a particular financial goal. An investor with a longer time horizon may feel more comfortable taking on a riskier, or more volatile, investment because he or she can wait out slow economic cycles and the inevitable ups and downs of our markets. By contrast, an investor saving up for a teenager’s college education would likely take on less risk because he or she has a shorter time horizon.
Risk Tolerance
Risk tolerance is your ability and willingness to lose some or all of your original investment in exchange for greater potential returns. An aggressive investor, or one with a high-risk tolerance, is more likely to risk losing money in order to get better results. A conservative investor, or one with a low-risk tolerance, tends to favor investments that will preserve his or her original investment. In the words of the famous saying, conservative investors keep a “bird in the hand,” while aggressive investors seek “two in the bush.”
Stocks
Stocks have historically had the greatest risk and highest returns among the three major asset categories. As an asset category, stocks are a portfolio’s “heavy hitter,” offering the greatest potential for growth. Stocks hit home runs, but also strike out. The volatility of stocks makes them a very risky investment in the short term. Large company stocks as a group, for example, have lost money on average about one out of every three years. And sometimes the losses have been quite dramatic. But investors that have been willing to ride out the volatile returns of stocks over long periods of time generally have been rewarded with strong positive returns.
Bonds
Bonds are generally less volatile than stocks but offer more modest returns. As a result, an investor approaching a financial goal might increase his or her bond holdings relative to his or her stock holdings because the reduced risk of holding more bonds would be attractive to the investor despite their lower potential for growth. You should keep in mind that certain categories of bonds offer high returns similar to stocks. But these bonds, known as high-yield or junk bonds, also carry higher risk.
Cash
Cash and cash equivalents - such as savings deposits, certificates of deposit, treasury bills, money market deposit accounts, and money market funds - are the safest investments, but offer the lowest return of the three major asset categories. The chances of losing money on an investment in this asset category are generally extremely low. The federal government guarantees many investments in cash equivalents. Investment losses in non-guaranteed cash equivalents do occur, but infrequently. The principal concern for investors investing in cash equivalents is inflation risk. This is the risk that inflation will outpace and erode investment returns over time.
Stocks, bonds, and cash are the most common asset categories. These are the asset categories you would likely choose from when investing in a retirement savings program or a college savings plan. But other asset categories - including real estate, precious metals and other commodities, and private equity - also exist, and some investors may include these asset categories within a portfolio. Investments in these asset categories typically have category-specific risks. Before you make any investment, you should understand the risks of the investment and make sure the risks are appropriate for you.
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Retracement of 1.80 areaHello #letsdothis
Last week I had done premarket analysis but the price was completely against my bias...
This new week I'm seeing price is still bullish according to the weekly close candlestick and ofcourse due to price closing at a Resistance it's time sellers to get in.who knows price can still shoot all the way up but it should atleast retest(Fibonacci levels) the broken Resistance let's be patient and have a successful trading week.
NB:- Price does what it wants to do we adapt and react
Learn Fibonacci Retracement Tool
☸️WHAT ARE FIB RETRACEMENT LEVELS
Fibonacci retracement levels are horizontal lines that indicate the possible support and resistance levels where price could potentially reverse direction. The first thing you should know about the Fibonacci tool is that it works best when the market is trending.
The idea is to go long on a retracement at a Fibonacci support level when the market is trending UP.
And to go short on a retracement at a Fibonacci resistance level when the market is trending DOWN.
Fibonacci retracement levels are considered a predictive technical indicator since they attempt to identify where price may be in the future.
☸️FINDING FIB RETRACEMENT LEVELS
In order to find these Fibonacci retracement levels, you have to find the recent significant Swing Highs and Swings Lows.
Then, for downtrends, click on the Swing High and drag the cursor to the most recent Swing Low.
For uptrends, do the opposite. Click on the Swing Low and drag the cursor to the most recent Swing High.
☸️HOW TO USE
Once you’ve done that, you will see the following levels appear: 23.6% , 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 76.4%. (The 50% one is not technically a Fib level but its still used by everyone)The idea is that the price will make a correction that will reverse at one of these levels. So all we need to do is watch the price action near these levels and look for the reversal patterns, like triple bottom, head and shoulders, narrowing wedge breakouts, etc…
Once the we see a confluence of the Fib level and the reversal pattern, we can just wait for the confirmation breakout and enter the trade on the pullback. EASY!👻
☸️WHY IT WORKS
Because of all the people who use the Fibonacci tool, those levels become self-fulfilling support and resistance levels.
If enough market participants believe that a retracement will occur near a Fibonacci retracement level and are waiting to open a position when the price reaches that level, then all those pending orders will impact the market price.
☸️IMPORANT REMINDER
One thing you should take note of is that price won’t always bounce from these levels. They should be looked at as areas of interest so as I wrote above, one can’t simply trade off these levels, but needs to employ reversal patterns with confirmation to increase the probability rate of one’s calls.
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Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
✳️FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVELS BASICS(Must Read)✳️
☸️WHAT ARE FIB RETRACEMENT LEVELS
Fibonacci retracement levels are horizontal lines that indicate the possible support and resistance levels where price could potentially reverse direction. The first thing you should know about the Fibonacci tool is that it works best when the market is trending.
The idea is to go long on a retracement at a Fibonacci support level when the market is trending UP.
And to go short on a retracement at a Fibonacci resistance level when the market is trending DOWN.
Fibonacci retracement levels are considered a predictive technical indicator since they attempt to identify where price may be in the future.
☸️FINDING FIB RETRACEMENT LEVELS
In order to find these Fibonacci retracement levels, you have to find the recent significant Swing Highs and Swings Lows.
Then, for downtrends, click on the Swing High and drag the cursor to the most recent Swing Low.
For uptrends, do the opposite. Click on the Swing Low and drag the cursor to the most recent Swing High.
☸️HOW TO USE
Once you’ve done that, you will see the following levels appear: 23.6% , 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 76.4%. (The 50% one is not technically a Fib level but its still used by everyone)The idea is that the price will make a correction that will reverse at one of these levels. So all we need to do is watch the price action near these levels and look for the reversal patterns, like triple bottom, head and shoulders, narrowing wedge breakouts, etc…
Once the we see a confluence of the Fib level and the reversal pattern, we can just wait for the confirmation breakout and enter the trade on the pullback. EASY!👻
☸️WHY IT WORKS
Because of all the people who use the Fibonacci tool, those levels become self-fulfilling support and resistance levels.
If enough market participants believe that a retracement will occur near a Fibonacci retracement level and are waiting to open a position when the price reaches that level, then all those pending orders will impact the market price.
☸️IMPORANT REMINDER
One thing you should take note of is that price won’t always bounce from these levels. They should be looked at as areas of interest so as I wrote above, one can’t simply trade off these levels, but needs to employ reversal patterns with confirmation to increase the probability rate of one’s calls.
💹Thank you for reading, please Like and Comment to support me☺️
Dear followers, let me know, what topic interests you for new educational posts?
ETHUSDT is testing the 0.618 Fibonacci LevelThe price got a rejection from the M's neckline as I told on the previous analysis exactly on 2830$. On the daily timeframe, the price is still inside a descending channel above an important support 2400$.
The market printed a double top on 3250$.
On the lower timeframe, the price is testing the 0.618 Fibonacci level as new support after the breakout from the 2700$
How to approach?
For a bullish scenario, the price needs to have a clear breakout from 3k resistance with Volume, and retest it as new support.
Otherwise,
If the price is going to lose the weekly support, above 2400, we could see another bearish impulse and the next valid support is 2k
–––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
USDJPY – Bullish Fakey Setup Triggers USDJPY – Bullish Fakey Setup Triggers | 2-27-2022
Price Action: Price formed a Bullish Pin Bar Signal just above the 114.69 – 115.05 short-term support area, late last week.
Price briefly moved higher from the recent Bullish Fakey Setup + Long Tailed Bar that had formed just above the 114.69 – 115.05 short-term support area, late last week.
Potential Trade Idea: We are considering buying on a pullback into the range of the recent Bullish Fakey Setup + Long Tailed Bar area, with risk management below the low of the Long Tailed Bar’s low.
NAS100 Good Morning Traders, Market to me seems to be in a consolidation. Eventhough in the weekly we can be looking at NASDAQ towards bearish sentiment. If market breaks below 14492.5 i will catch the pullback and enter to my 1hr low which is 14374.2. If it breaks above 14631.5 ill buy on the pullback to 14631.5 and exit around the hourly high marked up on my chart which is 14832.7. Patience is key today and everyday in these markets. Have a bless trading week!
I'm no genius, but this characterizes several Weekly chartsI have looked over several charts tonight, taking a look specifically for Tickers on the Weekly with a green upweek this week.
Coincidentally I had the 200 MA turned on and started noticing how Price on a lot of things really on their Weekly charts have had this problem. A problem of being stuck underneath the 200 MA for quite some time now.
What is beginning to get interesting is that recently a few names like CAH, and IFF have broken through.
So I went looking for a few more common interests in the blue chip world and first stop was IBM.
Have a look. The 200 slope rode higher for 9 years, and has been pulling back for 6 years. We're sitting right on top of a 50% rectracement of the moving average line motion.
Certainly has perked my interest for any long term ideas, and about just how much power could be behind any more selling in the market. When you consider how long IBM has been worked underneath the 200 on the Weekly, does it being to shine light that maybe we're at the start of trend in a different direction?
PGNY,We have eagle eyes to see the opportunities! We are ready to catch perfect chances ! Keep PGNY on watch my friends.
PGNY has started a continuous progress from it's IPO and completed waves 1, 2 and 3 of a possible 5 up going waves cycle so far. It means that we are able to catch a new up going wave 5 after a possible correction of wave 4. These explanations are shown on the chart.
Correction may end at supposed retracement levels . For now all levels are valid. Later, we can further fine tune the possible buy zone based on internal structure of the upcoming correction.
We keep PGNY on watch and wait for an ideal setup to go long. PGNY can brings us profit however, it does not mean that we just close our eyes and jump into the position.
We always trade smartly.
Good luck my friends.
mastering elliot waves. Rules of Retracements.After sticking to the rule of proportioning (using 45 degree angle on m1), and rule of observations (labeling past waves m0, m-1, and future waves m2, m3 properly relative to m1), now we want to measure the retracements of these waves.
The author of this book suggests people should use rulers and protractors and all that other caveman stuff. Sometimes technology isn't such a bad thing is it? We can use the Fibonacci retracement tool to make short work of the retracement percentages. Then we can call something "rule 5, condition d" for example, based off these measurements.
From there we go to a list of pre-established logical extensions and ..... that's as far as I got today. Next time, I can hazard a guess, I will be covering the logical extensions for each separate rule/condition pairing. Whatever the author thinks is important to cover is what I will be sharing here as well.
How to make money with price actionSo you want to get into price action?
Not fundamentals ey. But then one HAS to do all this backtesting, there is no dodging it.
Can't go into "TA" to dodge the FA work, and then want to also dodge the stat work xd
No magic trick here.
Let's get started immediately.
EURUSD 2020 covid trend (can't 100% dodge fundas, always good to know why we're going in a direction):
EURUSD 2018-2019 "thing" (trade war uncertainty and erratic tweets):
EURUSD 2017 trend:
We are starting to see trends last 1-2 years in recent history, so not much point looking at a 5Y chart.
It's also silly to be super zoomed in on some "intraday" or "swing trading" chart with no clue what is really going on.
EURUSD 2015-2016 ranging 2 years:
EURUSD 2014 violence some may remember:
Day gamblers looking for "10 pips" that hold bags were happy to go through a 3500 pips loss. Still has not recovered.
I can only imagine the incredible pain loss averse gamblers must have gone through.
The pain not only never ends but it just keeps getting worse and worse and worse.
Just no chance to breathe, only unbearable pain.
Well that's interesting, why am I licking my lips?
EURUSD in 2012-2013 does not look very fun:
EURUSD 2011 downtrend
Hey, starting to see some recurrent things here...
EURUSD 2010 uptrend
Backtesting tip: Doing it while playing a turn based game (alt tab between turns), or watching something that requires little attention, working out (between sets), "afk farm" games too...
No one lasts with "motivation", we all have to find tricks.
EURUSD 2010 downtrend
And before that, we go to the 2000s era where FX was popular with hedge funds and trends lasted more than 1 year.
2008-2013 saw most FX funds disappear.
Another tip: Maybe fundamentals can help predict when a trend will last, and avoid failing on this sad 3 impulses downtrend.
It worked for the Yen a few years ago when the BOJ almost literally told traders "Hey if you short our currency we will give you money".
And another tip: Eyeball backtesting. Have an idea? Want to know if it is worth digging in?
Well don't just go full fanatical try hard! Do not spend hours and hours writing every detail in excel.
Eyeball it with approximate numbers. Takes seconds.
Then 2 choices appear:
- Onto something ===> Go for the details
- Nah it's nothing ===> Congratulation you did not waste tons of time on nothing (small time loss)
Limiting losses, it's also valid with your time.
How about I go look at the GBPUSD in the 80s ey?
GBPUSD downtrend in 1980-1981
Aaaaaaaaaaand same story as usual ;)
Repeat this 10 times, for a total of about 100 excel lines and ~25 trends.
Then write some rules, and go backtest them on other charts.
Because yes, the major currency pairs (USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD, CHF, NZD, CNH, MXN, SEK) more or less work the same, but don't take my word for it.
Choices appear. Does the aspiring money manager want to only go for 3 impulses? And then miss all the big winners?
Does he want to sacrifice winrate for bigger reward to risk ratios? Does he want a higher winrate (noob).
Sometimes there are 5 impulses, does he (or she) go for 5? Or consider it is worth it to give up some winners?
Weak hands or strong hands once in a trending winner? Most people have weak hands with winners but doesn't mean one has to absolutely ALWAYS hold.
Holding all the time and letting it retrace hard would probably be a mistake.
The noob that took the time (really it would barely take a few days of honest work) could already get started.
I said get started, I don't know if it would make money. Maybe?
Clearly 2R is a beginner thing. What if you could get 38% winrate with 2R and 22% winrate with 4R!
Clearly worth it, but as always the majority of people are loss averse and choose the bad choice, trading is just not for them.
One has to some stats, have a good working memory for many reasons, be able handle numbers like "I3 - .6 - Fast - EURUSD" (2 variables 2 constants).
If someone cannot quickly juggle with numbers this is the wrong job. The variance is important for example, if an average pullback is .5 but 45% are in the .25-.45 range, and 45% in the > .8 range, here there are 2 groups to separate. Obviously here we would want to only go for the .25-.45 range, get a 4 or 5 or even greater reward to risk, let losers chase high winrate with gigantic stops. If 30% of the time the price bottoms in a .2 range and extends 1 at least, here that's a 5 risk to reward on double the breakeven winrate.
Then what happens to the 70% who cares? A few bottom further away, a few turn into a new opposite trend, a few go sideways, they all stink. All for illustrative purposes, but it's typically what happens. I don't really know.
What about some ways to increase the winrate, tips, and for those that have a hard time sticking to rules, especially cutting losses and holding winners? Surely, Mr Renev that said motivation did not work knows some tricks to fix all of that.
Find tricks... I know no tricks in fixing gross mediocrity, just follow the rules, non negotiable. It's really simple. Can't do it ==> Wrong job.
Can mediocre make money? I don't know I do not deal with mediocre.
Also we can try to zoom in, but ideally only after having mastered the timeframe presented in this article.
This is what I do, I zoom in.
Let's take my 2020 idea "The pound is a 500 years old ponzi going to zero"
So here is the full chart (1 year):
Go H4 on I3:
Then we can even go to H1:
The target is 450 "pips" which for GBPAUD is in the 1 week ATR range, but better than the average.
In a recent "tips" idea I showed:
- Day gamblers working on a 8 hour ATR realistically need a PF of 1.15 (very best scenario) - 1.25 just to breakeven!
- Swing Gamblers on a 2D ATR need a PF of 1.05 on EURUSD to breakeven.
- And I won't look at scalpers because they can't possibly be serious. I think they are actually trolls.
With this weekly ATR a PF of 1.02-1.03 is the breakeven rate. I am not bleeding much money compared to going long term.
Day gamblers miss out on so much, AND they need an exceptional profit factor, ok not that amazing either (for day gambling it is) JUST TO BREAKEVEN.
All that wasted money, how does it not drive them nuts? They're just throwing away a 20% margin. I just want to pull my eyelids out.
To make money with Forex, many questions will have to be answered, and for this only one way, as we say in France "Va falloir aller au charbon!"
(literally "Have to go to the coal"), means it will take time and effort and actively getting things done.
So many questions: What trends can be eliminated? What trends SHOULD be eliminated? What impulses to go for?
What is the optimal WR & RR compromise area? Do I just go for ABC first? Where to exit? What are solid Support and Resistance?
Do I go for uptrends starting from a multi year low only (to dodge ranges)? How many ATR are each wave? What does 2 extend to?
What other questions could I ask? How do I get inspiration to find more questions?
Do I exploit this strategy enough? Can I optimise it more or should I look for something else?
Hey and each of these questions will direct to more questions.
"When I have this, this, and this, where do I exit".
Like "Where I'm in the presence of a creeper trend", "fast trend", "clean trend"...
Each trend has its own set of questions, all the same I listed, plus a few specific ones.
It is essential to approach the study of markets in general and charts more specifically in manageable chunks.
All while following economic news and checking on charts regularly.
A day that makes sense could be one with 4 hours of backtesting, 4 hours of analysing charts, 4 hours of "fun" watching videos and reading and writing (all about investing), and 4 hours of time to eat and do unrelated stuff.
All of this for 1 simple strategy. Answering these questions is a task to accomplish over years.
Waves on wavesAs you can see, the short term Elliott Waves build into the larger Elliott Waves. Using this method I predict that TRCH is still bullish and will extend into the range of $8.11-9.24 .
Now I have considered the fact that this could just be a double top or h&s. However, my intuition tells me that with Institutions (15%) and Insiders (20%) owning a combined total of 35% of shares and 18% short interest which builds as the price increases on TRCH (as seen in February when TRCH first hit $4.00). In addition to this the short ratio or "days to cover" is ~2 for TRCH (according to Finviz.com @ finviz.com).
The RSI (87) and Relative Volume (33.5) both point to the fact that TRCH could easily be shorted back down to 3 or less. Either way the special dividend may make this stock worth holding in the long term.
Fibonacci 101Fibonacci retracements follow a mathematical principle set forth by Leonardo Fibonacci.
To put it simply - each level is a ratio between two other numbers, and there are countless examples of them being respected in the stock market, forex, crypto, commodities - you name it. For this reason, it's an essential tool in the technical trader's toolbox.
There are many uses for this tool:
Finding regions of support or resistance
Helping with stop loss placement
Establishing targets to take profit - especially during price discovery (no existing S/R levels)
Rules of Thumb
While placement of your anchor points is somewhat subjective - a rule of thumb is to stick with glaringly obvious swing points .
Simple is best with this tool - one of the reasons that it works is that other traders (or trading algorithms) are watching the same regions of price as you are. No need to overcomplicate it!
For a bullish retracement (+ targets) - begin your Fibonacci at a swing low, and end it at a swing high.
For a bearish retracement (+ targets) - begin your Fibonacci at a swing high, and end it at a swing low.
Personalizing Your Settings
The way I have my Fibonacci retracement tool configured, it includes some trend-based Fibonacci extensions in the calculations as well. This can be done by opening your Fibonacci settings and adjusting the inputs. The levels I have as inputs are as follows:
0 - This is your starting point
0.236 - The shallowest retracement
0.382 - Shallow retracement
0.5 - While not a Fibonacci number, this is the midpoint of your swing
0.618 - Commonly referred to as the "Golden Pocket" - this is generally a very important region of support/resistance.
0.705 - While not a Fibonacci number, this is the midpoint between the 0.618 and 0.786 - a level that tends to see lots of activity, and is thus included in my settings.
0.786 - This is the deepest retracement before a full retrace.
1 - This is your ending point
-0.27 - While not a Fibonacci number, a very commonly used extension target during price discovery - Target #1.
-0.414 - While not a Fibonacci number, a very commonly used extension target during price discovery - Target #2.
-0.618 - This is your golden ratio - Target #3 during price discovery.
-1 - This is a 100% extension of the distance between your starting & ending point.
etc, etc - you can extend as far as you like!
Where Fibonacci extensions really shine is during price discovery - areas where there are no previous levels of support or resistance (new ATH's).
You can see on this $SPY chart - using our Fib tool on the COVID crash gave us some very accurate upside targets for the subsequent rally into new ATH's.
I hope this introduction to the Fibonacci Retracement tool on TradingView helped you develop a basic understanding of it's applications - make sure to like if you learned something and follow us for more!
Will, OptionsSwing Analyst
EURUSD - Elliott wave – monitoring motive wave i-v alt abcprevailing scenario
wave (ii) maybe over in abc subminuette correction
monitor prices evolution in a motive mode
wave iii over 1.2151 (fib 1.618 wave i ext - losing momentum)
wave iv unfolding (expeted sideways - test 1.2114 area)
ALT: continuation of wave (ii)
subminuette correction abc if motive i-v fails
critical price area
previus daily close 1.2145
PP 1.2120
FIB 1.2116 ( iii ret 0.382) – 1.2153 ( (ii) ret 0.786)
static S/R 1.2153 critical R
volatility D 1.2092-1.2182