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Retracements

Confirmed! BTC closed above the forever downtrend! What now?Hello everyone! I hope you're well. Before we start, I want to make a quick intro again, I've changed my username to CyberStocks. I'm trying to take my tradingview account more seriously because I plan on building a brand and online business in the near future. I would like to inform my viewers before starting and cause unnecessary confusion. Alright now that's over with, let's start with a quick reminder, this chart has combined 6 of the world's largest exchanges together to get an average of the world volume and data. This is a follow up to my previous article, last time I said we're very bullish if we close above the forever downtrend, and a bull run could potentially start. So let's fast forward 1 week later, and what do we have? An actual huge green candle that closed above the downtrend, that means we went from bearish to bullish. However, that doesn't mean the bull run starts now. It still needs time to consolidate, I'll talk more about that in my next article, with a much more in depth analysis. Let's focus on what's happening now. Everything still looks good on the weekly, only thing that's changed is an open red candle on the weekly, this tells me that its simply a pullback from the massive pump last week. If you look on the RSI, we can clearly see that the volume pump vertically, and is now followed by a pullback. This is very normal, for every push there's always a pullback. Our most recent correction was at 4922 USD (29,532 USD) with the candle just wicking the mini, weakish support line. This is considered a bullish sign if you're an Elliot waves guy (I'm happy to explain Elliot waves in another article, let me know what you think in the comments section) because it means that we have a truncated wave. For every push there's a pullback, what goes up must come down. In other words, If we're going up, the price needs to cool-down before it can go further up again. There's a lot of drama and commotion about the market sentiment right now, people are saying things like "we're going to 4,200 USD." If you think 4,200 USD (25,200 USD) is bad wait until you see what the whales have installed for you, there's a much larger picture than what we see now, I'll explain the whale's secret plan in my next article. Back to the 4,200 USD debate, we don't actually have solid evidence to make that claim, we'll have to leave it as pure speculation for now. However, it doesn't mean it can't happen, and that's the funny thing about these markets, you always have to consider every single possibility. A dump to 4,650 USD (27900 USD) is what dictates the direction of the price. There are certain things that must be required before making a viable predication, if it qualifies then it's believable. Just remember, price pumps or dumps in crypto markets must be severe enough to define whether something can turn bullish or bearish. If you look on the 4 hour chart, I've spotted a heads and shoulders, and its still at play right now as we speak. Let's take a step back and have a detailed look. The chart is trying to tell us that the bulls seemed to correct before we hit the neckline, it looks like we might be creating a new higher high or what might be the right shoulder. The size and shape of our right shoulder will determine how much the price will retrace to. I know this article was short, but I wanted to follow up with that recent pump that happened last week. I also wanted point out a few things to look for afterwards. Please stay tuned for my next article, I have some big, crazy, and interesting news to share. Thank you everyone for your time, have a great weekend! P.S. I've decided to accept donations. I'm trying to build a brand and business for my trading career. If you would like to donate, all funds would directly support my mission and vision. I still appreciate each and every one of you whether you choose to donate or not. BTC Donations: 1AuZiofHSqM5gV1ttxUddNovDhEtHgMUgA
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by CyberStocks
4
SPY Ending wave v of (3) Bearish Reaction: Relief Rally (4) TBDMerry Christmas Traders! We find SPY near the termination of a minor fifth subwave v of Intermediate wave (3), which in turn is part of a larger primary wave One. Primary Wave One should terminate near SPY ETF price 219 on/about 31 Dec 18, after a 28-day decline from 3 Dec wave origin. Chart describes constituent components of Primary Wave One, including a i-ii-iii-iv-v minor negative impulse wave terminating in an A-B-C flat correction, and the subsequent steep decline to the "Christmas Crash" on 24 Dec, consisting of (so far) a wave 1-2-3- incomplete impulse. It seems likely that minor wave v of Intermediate (3) has terminated at Monday 24 Dec prices, given Fib extension of wave iii in price and time after four down days; however, a real possibility of a v wave Extension Path exists, shown as Alternate Path in chart. Given weak price action, panic-level selling could drive price to 226.5 before a 4th wave bounce. Intermediate Wave (5) target is 219.5, possible extension shown could drive prices as low as 211.5 or less. NB: Minor wave iii dropped ETF 10 pips, minor v has taken 7 more. Third waves are never the shortest waves. Selling waves typically last 3-5 days. Should get a turn on either 26 or 27 Dec for a likely 0.382 Fib retracement. A higher lift is possible but unlikely, given EW alternating wave theory, we already had a strong lift in 2nd reaction wave with a 0.50 Fibo retrace (noted on chart), ergo, expect this 4th wave will be relatively weak. A more robust Retracement Bear Rally of the entire December impulse would be expected after the completion of the (5) Intermediate Wave in December's bearish impulse, target shown in blue box as a rough possible estimate of ~ 254 - 265. Following that countertrend Secondary Rally, expect a powerful and severe Secondary Bearish Reaction with another 5-wave Impulse down to price levels reaching back to 2016, or even lower, should Panic and Despair prevail. Longer-term, I expect only more Bearishness. In 2008, NAS lost 80%, Dow lost 45% and SPX went off over half. This one will be worse. After 86 years since the Crash ended in August 1932, prices reached astronomical new highs in September 2018. There is a distinct possibility that this represents the culmination of a Grand Elliott Wave Supercycle, postulating Grand Wave V completed on 3 Sep 2018; if so, the Great Bear may finally be coming out of hibernation. Of course, this is speculative theory and remains unproved, nonetheless, it is a fascinating concept: en.wikipedia.org As always, these posts are purely informative ideas, and do not constitute investment advice. GLTA!
AMEX:SPYShort
by DaddySawbucks
19
BTC Fib StrategyAs I have pointed out before, BTC likes to bounce at the .886-1.13 and the .618 retracement. Every retraced run has resulted in 100% accuracy of the predicted move within roughly 100pts of the retracement mark. The retracement for 2 runs ago gave a nice bottom pattern within 100pts, and now this leg up has come within 100pts of the .618. The strategy is to project the fibs at the swing points and take a position within 100pts. BTC is also in a triangle. If I had to guess I would say it will proly result like the last one (bull trap breakout and eventually breakdown).
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Gweilo
BTCUSD - Where From Here?I decided to do some in-depth analysis on Bitcoin BITFINEX:BTCUSD (4H chart) and plot some possible future scenarios. First, we can see that price is currently moving up in an ascending parallel channel . Until this channel is still intact, the most likely move is up towards the upper boundary of the channel (21k - 23k). We could see a retest of 18k before moving higher. 20k will be an important psychological barrier as well. However, if it breaks lower, we can pinpoint a few areas (I plotted six) where important support and resistance levels line up with multiple Fibonacci retracement levels. The most prominent ones are: 17100 - important support and resistance area + 0.236 and 0.382 Fibonacci levels. 16500 - important support and resistance area + 50% retracement from the ATH towards the latest major low at 12700. 15600 - a confluence of 0.618 retracement measured from 12700 and 0.382 from 8900 + old support and resistance. 14300 - a confluence of three Fibonacci retracements, including 0.382 from the low of 5400 back in mid-November. 12900 - old support + 0.618 retracement measured from 8900. 11000 - old highs + two Fibonacci levels, including 0.618 from the low of 5400 back in mid-November. Whichever way it goes, it's good to be prepared! Happy trading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by pjims
2
gbp/usd retracement methodMarket on the 1 day timeframe looks very promising for a resurgence of the pound to go trending up as well due to bank of England raising the interest rate from 0.25% to 0.50% which was done to meet inflation rates. Higher interest rate means higher exchange rate cause people are willing to exchange their currency to GBP to add on interest. This also fits with the retracements shown on analysis and every time the market retraced at those moments, it shot up forming a clean candlestick most of the time. I'm hoping it will shoot up one more time so I can set a Buy Stop just roughly 10 pips above current market and ride it through until first resistance. Use 1d for analysis and lower time frames to double check and to initialise and place an order.
Long
by chiefcapitalfx