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Reversal

USDJPY - Now or Never!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈USDJPY has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in blue and it is currently retesting the upper bound of the channel acting as an over-bought zone. Moreover, the green zone is a strong weekly resistance. 📚 As per my trading style: As #USDJPY is around the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TheSignalyst
11
USD Turns GBP On Its "Head"FX:GBPUSD has formed a Head & Shoulders Pattern! Price has already broken down below the "Neckline" to Confirm that Pattern. Currently, Price is working its way back up to retest the Breakout and if the level is strong enough and holds, we could see Price follow through with its reversal to lower prices! If the retest is successful, the May 12th Lows of 1.31741 - 1.31394 could be a good Support level to set as a Price Target. Now we wait for a Retest!
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
11
USDCHF Signals Wave 3 With Double Bottom!OANDA:USDCHF has not only formed a Double Bottom Pattern but also may be generating a potential Elliot Impulse Wave! Bulls are giving the April & June Lows of .8038 - .8088, another go for a second time today after surpassing the first attempted High created July 17th to break above the level. So far Price today has broken above July 17th Highs and if Bulls are able to hold this level, this would Confirm: 1) A Breakout of the Double Bottom 2) Wave 3 continuing the Impulse Wave in the Elliot Wave Theory! The Higher Low @ .79106 created on July 25th, broke the downtrend structure as a 78.6% retracement of the Lower Low @ .78719 created July 1st which was a new 14 Year Low, finishing Wave 2 and initiating Wave 3 of the Impulse Wave. The Extension of Wave 3 typically will end at the 1.236% or 1.618% level which gives us 2 potential Price Targets to start: Price Target 1) .81479 - 1.236% Price Target 2) .82213 - 1.618% Once Wave 3 has ended, we will look for opportunities at the Wave 4 - Wave 5 juncture!
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
EUR/CAD: Shorting the Climactic Rally Near 1.6000The strong rally in EUR/CAD has pushed the pair into extreme territory, approaching a major psychological and structural resistance zone. While momentum has been strong, this looks like a potential climactic or "blow-off" top, offering a highly favorable risk/reward opportunity to short the pair in alignment with the weak underlying Euro fundamentals. The Fundamental Why 📰 The core thesis remains bearish for the Euro. The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a distinctly dovish tone, signaling a willingness to ease policy further to support a slowing Eurozone economy. This fundamental headwind suggests that extreme rallies in Euro pairs are often exhaustive and present prime shorting opportunities. The Technical Picture 📊 Major Supply Zone: The price is entering a critical multi-month supply zone between 1.5950 and the key psychological level of 1.6000. This is a major ceiling where significant selling pressure is anticipated. Fibonacci Extension: This area aligns with a key Fibonacci extension level (1.272) from the last major impulse wave, a common zone where trending moves become exhausted and reversals begin. Pronounced RSI Divergence: A clear bearish divergence is forming on the daily chart. As price makes this final push to a new high, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is making a significantly lower high, signaling a deep exhaustion of buying momentum. The Counter-Trade Rationale 🧠 This is a high-level fade. We are positioning for a reversal at a major, technically significant ceiling. The extreme price extension, combined with clear momentum divergence, indicates that the risk of buying at these highs is substantial. By shorting here, we are betting that the powerful technical resistance and weak fundamentals will trigger a significant correction. The Setup ✅ 📉 Pair: EUR/CAD 👉 Direction: Short ⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.63230 🎯 Entry: 1.59490 ✅ Take Profit: 1.52008 ⚖️ Risk/Reward: ≈ 2:1
Short
by MaxellAguiran
A tale of two wedgesIn early 2025 we’ve seen two classic wedge patterns on two of the market’s most watched charts: a falling wedge on the U.S. Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) and a rising wedge on the S&P 500 ETF ( AMEX:SPY ). Alone each tells its own tale—but together they sketch a tug‑of‑war between a fading dollar and resilient equities. The Falling Wedge on DXY A falling wedge in a downtrend signals waning bearish momentum and often precedes a bullish reversal once price breaks the upper trendline. The Rising Wedge on SPY A rising wedge in an uptrend is classically a bearish reversal pattern —a breakdown below the lower trendline confirms sellers are gaining control. A Converging Reversal Given the well‑known inverse correlation between the dollar and most assets, it’s noteworthy that both asset classes are flashing signs of a reversal. Taken together that makes a compelling argument.
AMEX:SPY
by quickshiftinn
CHFJPY - The Bulls Are Exhausted!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈CHFJPY has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in blue and it is currently retesting the upper bound of it. Moreover, the green zone is a strong supply. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the upper blue trendline and green supply. 📚 As per my trading style: As #CHFJPY is hovering around the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TheSignalyst
4
Why a USD Bounce Could Trigger a Stock PullbackThe US Dollar has faced brutal selling during the first half of 2025. Some are even questioning whether the Dollar’s global hegemony is at risk. Early in the year the US stock market AMEX:SPY sold off aggressively, falling 19% from mid‑March to early April. Since then stocks have more than regained their losses and the Dollar is still in the tank. So where does that leave us for the rest of the year? The Dollar Inverse Correlation The US Dollar has an inverse correlation to most everything. Stocks, bonds, crypto, commodities, real estate — all are measured in Dollars. Therefore when the Dollar loses value, all things equal it takes more of them to reach the same value those assets were denominated at before. Conversely when the Dollar rises, other assets lose value in Dollar terms. Here we can see a long standing inverse correlation to stocks AMEX:SPY Dollar in oversold territory The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes on a scale from 0 to 100 to help identify overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30) conditions. The Dollar has hit oversold several times so far this year, but not yet staged a material recovery. Stocks in overbought territory Meanwhile stocks have staged a blistering rebound off the "Liberation Day" driven selloff earlier this year. The S&P 500 now sits at an all‑time high, and you guessed it, has tapped overbought twice this month. USD is fundamentally attractive Because investors seek to earn the highest available yield on their capital, they tend to move funds into currencies offering higher interest rates (and away from those with lower rates), so differences in policy rates across countries create incentives for cross‑border borrowing and lending that drive FX flows. For example the Fed ( ECONOMICS:USINTR ) is at 4.5%, and the ECB ( ECONOMICS:EUINTR ) is at 2.15%. Moreover the Dollar is down significantly against major trading pairs that have lower yields. In our prior example the Dollar is down 11.98% against the Euro YTD (1- FX:EURUSD ), leaving substantial room for capital gains. Gravity could lure FX traders back in the second half of 2025. Tariff calculus Tariffs tend to bolster the imposing country’s currency in two main ways: by making imports more expensive they reduce import volumes, improving the trade balance (i.e. fewer foreign‑currency outflows), and by collecting duties in domestic currency the government effectively withdraws that currency from circulation, increasing its relative scarcity. Both effects lift demand for—and support the value of—the home currency. Putting it all together Despite the TVC:DXY ’s ~10.8% YTD slide and repeated oversold conditions, the compelling carry trade sets the stage for a USD bounce that, in turn, could pressure overextended equities. With stocks stretched and the Dollar oversold, the carry‑driven rebound in USD could well presage a pullback in equities. Stocks are expensive, Dollars are cheap 🤑
TVC:DXY
by quickshiftinn
1
Gold Futures – Closing Longs and Flipping Short at Key Fib🔴 Gold Futures – Closing Longs and Flipping Short at Key Fib Confluence Instrument : Gold Futures – COMEX ( COMEX:GC1! ) Timeframe : 15-Minute New Position : Short Entry Zone : ~3442 Target : ~3362 Stop Loss : ~3458 Risk/Reward : Approx. 6.5+ Setup Type : Reversal from Overextension / Fib Resistance 💡 Trade Recap & Strategy Shift We’ve officially closed both our recent long entry and our larger swing long position, locking in substantial profit on this move off the 0.618 retracement. Now, we’re flipping short based on the following: Price reached the 0.146 Fib extension from the previous retracement leg, a level often overlooked but powerful when confluence lines up. Trendline resistance from the upper channel has been tagged. Momentum is showing early signs of stalling after a strong vertical push — textbook overextension. The rally into this level lacked divergence or structural buildup, increasing the chance of a snapback. 🛠️ Short Setup Details Entry: 3442 (after signs of exhaustion near Fib confluence) Target: 3362 (prior structure + 0.382 retracement) Stop Loss: 3458 (just above high / resistance zone) Risk/Reward: 6.5:1 — excellent profile for a countertrend play. 📌 Watch For A break below 3390 will be key confirmation of momentum shifting back down. Failure to hold 3442 on a retest will invalidate the short and re-open the door for a squeeze higher to 3476/3480. With trend exhaustion in sight and high confluence resistance overhead, we’re taking the opportunity to pivot short — fully aware of the volatility this region can bring.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by JoshuaDanford
2
USD/JPY: The 150.00 Rejection SignalThe chart for USD/JPY looks like a simple one-way street going up. But underneath the surface, my quantitative models are in a state of conflict, and that's a high-clarity signal that something is about to change. This isn't a signal to short right now. This is a signal to be patient and watch for a very specific setup that the "smart money" models are anticipating. The Quant Conflict 🤖 My analysis involves several different mathematical models. Here's the situation: One model, which is great at tracking trends, is still signaling BUY , following the obvious upward momentum. However, two other, more complex models that analyze the relationships between economic data are now flashing a SELL signal. They are detecting underlying weakness that the price chart isn't showing yet. When the simple trend model and the complex structural models disagree, it often means a major turning point is near. We are siding with the smarter models, but we need price action to confirm their warning. The Game Plan 📊 We will use the 150.00 level as our "line in the sand." We are waiting for the market to fail at this level and then break down, which would confirm the bearish quant signal. This is our high-probability entry trigger. Here is the exact setup we are waiting for: 📉 THE SETUP: A patient short position, waiting for confirmation of a breakdown. 👉 ENTRY: We enter only on a confirmed daily close below 148.00. ⛔️ STOP LOSS: Place the stop just above the psychological wall at 150.25. 🎯 TAKE PROFIT: Our primary target is the major support level at 145.00. This is a setup where patience pays. We are letting the market do the hard work and show its hand before we commit. Let's watch this one closely.
Short
by MaxellAguiran
RENDER - [Double bottom] - Resistances are meant to be broken- RENDER has successfully bounced back from the support by forming the double bottom pattern. - Double bottom pattern is bullish pattern, when it forms at the strong support it becomes extremely bullish. this is one of such scenario. - Im expecting some minor resistance at the local resistance around 4.3 - A successfull breakout this local resistance will push the price further high. Entry Price: 3.941 Stop Loss: 2.378 TP1: 4.413 TP2: 5.350 TP3: 6.887 TP4: 8.092 TP5: 9.810 Max Leverage 5x. Don't forget to keep stoploss. Support us by Liking and following. Thanks and Cheers! GreenCrypto
Long
by GreenCryptoTrades
1
"Three Drives" And EURJPY Bulls Could Be Out!!OANDA:EURJPY has potentially been forming quite a rare Reversal Pattern, the Three Drives Pattern, after making a Bullish Breakout of the Triangle, lets break it down! Three Drive Patterns are very similar to ABCD patterns except for one thing, a Retracement instead of a Reversal after the CD Leg is finished! In the CD Leg, Price creates quite a Trading Volume Gap between 172.1 - 171.8 and after Price declines from Point D (normally a Short Opportunity on an ABCD Pattern), Price actually makes a 61.8% Retracement of CD, creating Point E in that very Price Range and moves up, which "drives" a strong case that we potentially could be looking at a Three Drive Pattern! Now that we have Point E, we can use the Fibonacci Retracement Tool to help give us an idea on where the Extension of the EF Leg could potentially end and the Fibonacci Levels suspected are: 123.6% --> 173.585 138.2% --> 173.795 161.8% --> 174.134 Once Price has made an Extension, shows Reaction, and moves Down from these levels; this could generate a great Short Opportunity!
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
2
EURJPY - Still Over-Bought!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈EURJPY has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in blue. However, it is currently retesting the upper bound of the channel. Moreover, the green zone is a major weekly supply. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the upper blue trendline and weekly supply. 📚 As per my trading style: As #EURJPY approaches the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TheSignalyst
6
ARB - Breakout will break the market- Arbitrum is one of the fundamentally strong token on ETH L2. - After back to back crashes finally we are seeing some reversal from the bottom - A breakout from the local resistance would push the arb price further, we need to wait till the breakout to enter the trade. Entry Price: 0.5010 (after breakout) StopLoss: 0.3169 TP1: 0.6300 TP2: 0.7698 TP3: 1.2297 TP4: 1.7566 TP5: 2.3943 Max Leverage: 5x Don't forget to keep stoploss Cheers GreenCrypto
Long
by GreenCryptoTrades
EUR/CAD: Quant-Verified ReversalThe fundamental catalyst has been triggered. The anticipated strong Canadian CPI data was released as expected, confirming the primary driver for this trade thesis. Now, the focus shifts to the technical structure, where price is showing clear exhaustion at a generational resistance wall. 🧱 Our core thesis is that the confirmed fundamental strength of the CAD will now fuel the technically-indicated bearish reversal from this critical price ceiling. The Data-Driven Case 📊 This trade is supported by a confluence of technical, fundamental, and quantitative data points. Primary Technical Structure: The pair is being aggressively rejected from a multi-year resistance zone (1.6000 - 1.6100). This price action is supported by a clear bearish divergence on the 4H chart's Relative Strength Index (RSI), a classic signal that indicates buying momentum is fading despite higher prices. Internal Momentum Models: Our internal trend and momentum models have flagged a definitive bearish shift. Specifically, the MACD indicator has crossed below its signal line into negative territory, confirming that short-term momentum is now bearish. This is layered with a crossover in our moving average module, where the short-term SMA has fallen below the long-term SMA, indicating the prevailing trend structure is now downward. Quantitative Probability & Volatility Analysis: To quantify the potential outcome of this setup, we ran a Monte Carlo simulation projecting several thousand potential price paths. The simulation returned a 79.13% probability of the trade reaching our Take Profit target before hitting the Stop Loss. Furthermore, our GARCH volatility model forecasts that the expected price fluctuations are well-contained within our defined risk parameters, reinforcing the asymmetric risk-reward profile of this trade. The Execution Plan ✅ Based on the synthesis of all data, here is the actionable trade plan: 📉 Trade: Sell (Short) EUR/CAD 👉 Entry: 1.6030 ⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.6125 🎯 Take Profit: 1.5850 The data has spoken, and the setup is active. Trade with discipline.
Short
by MaxellAguiran
AUDJPY Ready To "Drop A Shoulder"? Multi-Timeframe May Help!OANDA:AUDJPY is beginning to form a very convincingly strong Reversal Pattern, the Head & Shoulders! Starting with the Daily Chart we can see that Price is Forming a Doji Candle just after trying to Breakout of a Major Resistance Zone created from the Highs of March 18th and if Price is unable to close above this level, this strengthens the Bearish and Reversal Bias. Now the 4 Hr Chart shows both the "First Shoulder" or Previous Higher High that was surpassed by the "Head" which is the New Higher High, has formed quite quickly with a slightly Ascending "Neckline" or Support Line where Bulls were able to make their Last Stand. With a Reversal Pattern, you want to see a Change in Trend, in this case, would be a Lower High then that of the Higher High or "Head" @ 96.204. *If Bulls are able to Push Price above the "Left Shoulder" or Previous Higher High @ 95.952, this will Invalidate the Head & Shoulders Set-up! **If Bulls are unable to Break Above 95.952 and Price is pushed back down to the Confirmation or "Neckline" for a 3rd time, this Confirms the Head & Shoulders Set-up!! Based on the Distance between the Head and Neckline, we can project a potential drop down to the next Support Level as a Price Target @ 95.00 once: 1) Pattern is Confirmed 2) Breakout is Validated
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
2