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Reversal

ETH - Patience Is Key⏱Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. ETH has been stuck inside a narrow range between 2200 and 2400. 📈 For the bulls to take over, we need a break above the 2420 structure marked in red. In this case, a movement till the 2670 would be expected. 📉 In parallel, if the lower blue and trendline and the last major low at 2170 marked in green are broken downward, we will expecting further bearish movement till the 2000 support. For now, we wait ⏱ Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and why?. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
XAUUSD - Following The Gold🥇Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 Gold has been overall bullish, trading within the rising broadening wedge in blue. At present, Gold is undergoing a correction phase and it is currently approaching the lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support. Moreover , it is retesting a strong support zone marked in green. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support. 📚 As per my trading style: As #Gold approaches the lower purple circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TheSignalyst
BTC - Two Possible Scenarios ↕️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. BTC has been boring this past week hovering inside a narrow range. 📈 For the bulls to take over, we need a break above the 44,300 structure marked in blue. In this case, a movement till the 48k - 50k would be expected. 📉 In parallel, if the last major low at 41,850 marked in blue is broken downward, we will expecting further bearish movement till the 38,000 support. For now, we wait ⏱ Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and why?. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
12
Bollinger Bands Part II: Reversal PatternsBollinger Bands Part II: Reversal Patterns Analzying Two Key Patterns Called M-Tops and W-Bottoms This post will go into greater depth than the basic introduction to Bollinger Bands published last week. In particular, it will discuss two key reversal patterns. Both the M-top reversal pattern and W-bottom reversal pattern are price patterns that form in conjunction with the Bollinger Bands. M-Top Pattern The classic M-top reversal pattern forms when two consecutive price highs form an M-shaped price pattern with the first high tagging the upper band and the second high exhausting before tagging the upper band. An example is shown on Supplemental Chart A involving a topping pattern in BTCUSD from early 2021. This weekly chart shows the M-top in red. The second high meets the traditional (strict) criteria of a second peak near—but not touching—the upper band. This is soon evident as a price failure. Supplemental Chart A But an M-top reversal pattern may arise even when two actual tags or pierces of the upper band occur, i.e., the second high may tag the band without invalidating the pattern. This is based on the email discussion this author had with the creator of the Bollinger Bands a while back in 2022, recounted at the end of this post. In short, the most important feature of the pattern is price exhaustion and reversal at the second high . In other words, look for failure of the price move at or near band resistance (e.g., a failed breakout). The following technical signals may provide additional confirmation: weakening momentum indicators, including negative divergences in momentum indicators or a lower high on %B indicator which may present as a %B line divergence. W-Bottom Pattern The classic W-bottom reversal pattern forms when two consecutive price lows form a W-shaped price pattern with the first low tagging the lower band and the second low exhausting before tagging the lower band. Supplemental Chart B But note that a W-bottom reversal pattern may arise even when two actual tags or pierces of the lower band occur, i.e., the second low may tag the band without invalidating the pattern. This is based on the email discussion this author had with the creator of the Bollinger Bands a while back in 2022, recounted at the end of this post. In short, the most important feature of the pattern is price exhaustion and reversal at the second low. In other words, look for failure of the price move at band support (e.g., a failed breakdown). The following technical signals may provide additional confirmation: Strengthening momentum indicators, including positive divergences in momentum indicators or a higher low on % B indicator which may present as a %B line divergence. Understanding the Nuances In June 2022, John Bollinger, the creator of the Bollinger Bands, posted a monthly chart of BTC/USD on Twitter. He described the chart as a “picture perfect double (M-type) top in BTCUSD on the monthly chart complete with confirmation” from %B and bandwidth indicators. He noted also that the signal led to a tag of the lower band. Supplemental Chart C is my own attempt to recreate the monthly chart Bollinger had shown to reflect the same two major monthly highs in BTCUSD in early 2021 and then again in late 2021. Please note that Supplemental Chart C shows a different M-top than the one shown on the weekly time frame above on Supplemental Chart A, which only focuses on one of the two peaks analyzed in this monthly chart. Supplemental Chart C This chart that Bollinger originally posted in 2022 showed two actual tags of the upper band. This was not quite technically within the definition of an M-top in much of the technical literature. My previous reading on M-tops and W-bottoms found that all the definitions and examples showed that the second high or low must not touch or tag the relevant band. But this is incorrect to assume that M-tops and W-bottoms are invalid when this technical definition has not been strictly met, i.e., when two (or more) tags of the bands occurred at both price extremes. Responding to Bollinger’s chart of a “perfect M-top pattern,” I messaged John Bollinger, the creator of the bands, directly, hoping for clarification about the strict definition of M-tops and W-bottoms. My question was whether they can be valid while having two actual tags of the bands at both price extremes—two tags at both highs of an M-top and two tags at both lows of a W-bottom. Or were the technical books correct to say that the second peak or low must approach the bands but fail to touch them. In response to my questions, Bollinger clarified that whether a tag occurs at the second peak / high of an M-top is not important as price failure at upper band resistance. This reasoning can be applied in the inverse to W-bottoms as well. In other words, completing the second half of each formation requires a price failure, rather than a band-tag failure, upper band resistance (M-top) or lower band support (W-bottom). So this broadens the scope of what constitutes a valid M-top or W-bottom pattern. But it does not exclude patterns that meet the conventional technical definition. This means that valid M-top and W-bottom patterns include cases where the secondary high / low fails to tag the upper / lower band. Stated differently, failures to tag the bands at a secondary price high / low can also form valid topping and bottoming patterns. Finally, beware of seeking reversals too soon when price is trending strongly, or walking the bands —pullbacks in that specific scenario are not at all "price failures," and it's important to recognize the difference. Conclusion In short, the key is to apply substance over form, to follow the core concept rather than strictly adhering to the technical rules / definitions. Broaden the scope of the technical requirements to include price failures—on the secondary test—at band resistance or support. This will help traders recognize the patterns arising from this technical indicator more effectively. Further, Bollinger himself recommended using other indicators for confirmation, such as RSI or another indicator that isn't overlapping in its operation too much. Lastly, it may be important to realize that the final failure at or near the bands may not be the second peak or low but the fourth, fifth or sixth. Just draw the M at the end where it fits if there has been strength followed by a failure at or near the bands. And remember trading time frame (M-tops and W-bottoms that are valid have much less significance on shorter time frames and much more and lasting significance on longer time frames. And keep risk management on as always. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by SquishTrade
4
CRV - Shift In Momentum Soon!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 After breaking below the blue channel, CRV has been overall bearish , trading within the falling channel in red. 🏹 For the bulls to take over again, we need a break above the upper red trendline and 0.5 round number. In this case, a movement till the previous major high at 0.7 would be expected. 📉 Meanwhile, until the bulls take over, CRV would be bearish and can still trade lower to test the lower bound of the red channel and 0.41. In this case, we will be looking for short-term buy setups on lower timeframes. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
Chinese Economy (HSI) Supercycle ReversalThe Chinese economy has had 4 consecutive years of closing in decline. Evidently, the Chinese economy supercycle (as depicted in the chart) indicates that a reversal is well overdue (or superdue in this particular context). By the end of this year, it can be expected to see a relatively massive reversal in the Chinese economy, one that may catch many by surprise. On the daily timeframe, this reversal started in this past week, Monday 01/22/24, where China likely saw its last lowest of the year. There's still potential to test 10/31/22 low and maybe even break it at some point in February, but doing so will imply an even larger repump, leading to potential break of the yearly supercycle. In any event, if China does indeed maintain the recent low as the yearly low, it means it intends to engulf the yearly red cycle this year, latest 2025. But 2025-'26 should mean the chinese economy once again sees a powerful decline. After this, Chinese economy could choose to completely collapse as an economy or overcome odds and revive a green supercycle economy. In my fairest opinion, I think Chinese economy will explode to the upside, likely with fusion technology as the leading catalyst. Artificial Intelligence will ultimately be the wildcard that decides whether this catalyst holds the economy in whole or whether it briefly collapses until further regulation is upheld.
TVC:HSILong
by JuanLagos94
3
ETH - Market Structure 101 📕Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, From a long-term perspective, ETH is currently rejecting the upper bound of the brown channel. Weekly Chart: 📈 For the bulls to take over again from a long-term perspective, a weekly candle close above 2600 is essential for the bulls. If achieved, a movement toward the next resistance at approximately 3000 could be anticipated. H4 Chart: 📉 Conversely, the bulls will remain in control from a medium-term perspective as long as the local support in red at 2100 holds. If the 2100 is broken downward, a bearish correction till the 1750.0 mark would be expected. 🏹 Meanwhile , for the bulls to take over again short-term, we need a break above the last minor high from 4h at 2285. Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen first? and why? 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
by TheSignalyst
2
CVNA Long after completed Fib. RetracementCVNA on a 30 minute chart trended up from November post earnings for 6-7 weeks until December 20th and then started falling from a head and shoulders pattern at the pivot. The Fib retracement tool is used to draw the retracement of the prior up trend. The Trend Based Fib Time is used on that prior up trend to show fib levels across time instead of price. Price is currently at the 0.5 Fib retracement for price and also at 0.5 for the latter tool. The other indicators show rising RSI, a flip between positive and negative directional indices and volatility beyond the running mean. I will take a long trade here targeting 52.3 which is just under a 0.5 fib retracement of the recent trend down. The stop loss will be set at 42.8 at the level of the reversal narrow-ranged candles. A option trade will be entertained for the February monthly expiration.
NYSE:CVNA
by AwesomeAvani
NZDCAD - Keep It Simple 👌Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, On Daily: Left Chart NZDCAD broke below a previous major low so it is now acting as a local resistance zone, thus we will be looking for trend-following sell setups on lower timeframes. On H1: Right Chart 📈 For the bears to take over, we need a momentum candle close below the last major low in gray. 📉 Meanwhile, until the bears take over, NZDCAD can still trade higher for an over-extended correction movement. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Short
by TheSignalyst
Double Bottom - UCADHere I have USD/CAD on the 1 HR Chart! Price has outlined a very clear Double Bottom pattern with the two Lows! RSI is giving us a Bullish Divergence which tells me price really wants to work higher from this point! Price has now broken the Confirmation of Pattern! With this PA of now Higher Highs, we look for the next Low to be Higher than the Low of the Double Bottom being our INVALIDATION! Fundamentally this week: USD - Richmond Index (Tue) Flash PMI (Wed) Advance GDP, Unemployment, Durable Goods (Thur) Core CPE (Fri) CAD - NHPI (Tue) BOC Monetary Policy, Rate Statement & Press Conference (Wed) *If price does come down to test this break, I suspect the Support Zone @ Confirmation will be enough to catapult price up into the overhead Resistance Zone and Above!
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
AUDCHF - Wait For The Bears 🐻Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, On Daily: Left Chart AUDCHF is retesting a strong resistance zone so we will be looking for sell setups on lower timeframes. On H1: Right Chart 📈 For the bears to take over, we need a momentum candle close below the last major lower in gray. 📉 Meanwhile , AUDCHF would be bullish, and can still trade higher inside the resistance or even break it higher. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
by TheSignalyst
1
Is Boeing a buy before earnings? LONGThis is a daily Boeing chart with the idea on the chart in the text. There may be a good entry before earnings using a stop loss under the POC line and an ultimate target of the projected trendline resistance at $280-$300 if all goes well fundamentally with an FAA investigation and its sequelae. A megaphone pattern demonstrates increasing volatility in price action which is something some traders take to the bank. My analysis is that this may be a safe swing trade until the report of the 24Q2 earnings in about 100 days.
NYSE:BALong
by AwesomeAvani
21
Crude Oil Reversal Opp 18.01.2024It looks like Crude oil experienced a sharp drop lately followed by a strong reversal. This creates an opportunity for trading the retracement that will probably happen if the resistance proves to be strong enough. __________________________ Information Regarding Important News and Figures can be found here in our Economic Calendar: mau.bdswiss.com/economic-calenda... Risk Warning: Trading in CFDs is highly speculative and carries a high level of risk. It is possible to lose all of your invested capital. These products may not be suitable for everyone, and you should ensure that you fully understand the risks taking into consideration your investment objectives, level of experience, personal circumstances as well as personal resources. Speculate only with funds that you can afford to lose. Seek independent advice if necessary. Please refer to our Risk Disclosure. BDSwiss is a trading name of BDS Markets and BDS Ltd. BDS Markets is a company incorporated under the laws of the Republic of Mauritius and is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission of Mauritius ( FSC ) under license number C116016172, address: 6th Floor, Tower 1, Nexteracom Building 72201 Ebene. BDS Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Seychelles (FSA) under license number SD047, address: Suite 3, Global Village, Jivan’s Complex, Mont Fleuri, Mahe, Seychelles. Payment transactions are managed by BDS Markets (Registration number: 143350).
TVC:USOILShort
by Stuart_Cowell
NKE - Just Do It ✔️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, On Weekly: Left Chart NKE has been hovering inside a range in the shape of a symmetrical triangle. Moreover, it is currently sitting around a strong round number 100.0 🏹 Hence , as long as the 100.0 support holds, we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes. On Daily: Right Chart 📈 For the bulls to take over, we need a momentum candle close above the last major high in green at 107.0 📉 Meanwhile , NKE would be bearish, and if the 100.0 support is broken downward, we can expect a bearish continuation towards the lower weekly trendline where we will be looking for new buy setups. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
NYSE:NKELong
by TheSignalyst
1