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Reversal

CAD CPI could trigger next wave downThe previous CAD CPI data marked a significant turning point, with CAD having a 2 week hangover and the basket of major currencies getting a wild ride against the weakened CAD. Could we see the opposite this time around? USD is seeing significant strength against the basket but is starting to look ripe for a pullback. If we see another strong day for USD on monday, pushing USDCAD into the cluster of pre vious activity between 1.36000 - 1.36500, we could be primed for a significant pullback in USD strength and the CAD CPI might just be the catalyst for a major leg down to back below 1.34500. Of course, don't trade blindly, wait to see if the setup occurs, see the CPI numbers and how the market reacts. This is a very specific scenario, but if we are in that 1.36000 range when the numbers are released Tuesday, I'll be very quick to enter short if the market sees intraday downside momentum.
Short
by HayeTrading
6
GBPUSD Plummets after 12month HighAfter briefly breaking the 12-month high from May 2022 of 1.26670 this week, a wave of selling came in amid a big news week. The Bank of England (BoE) jacked up the UK Bank Rate to 4.5%, marking the 12th hike in a row. Despite two dissenting votes, the committee expects more tightening if price pressures persist. This could mean the rate peaking around 4.75% by the end of 2023. BoE expects the UK's inflation to drop sharply from April, but that they are ‘continuing to address the risk of more persistent strength in domestic price and wage setting, as represented by the upward skew in the projected distribution for CPI inflation.’ Meanwhile, BoE's forecast for UK growth is cautiously upbeat, predicting flat growth in the first half of the year and a slight uptick after that. Over in the States, the US Dollar gained strength headed into the weekend as investors look for safety amid uncertainty. This comes after a regional US bank, PacWest, reported a substantial 10% deposit drop and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report came in weak. From a technical perspective, tapping new highs briefly but failing to hold, leading to a sharp sell-off and retracing 2 weeks worth of gains in 2 days could signal a significant shift for the Cable ahead. We've seen a clean downside channel break, and - while a retracement seems likely after such volatile selling into the weekend - lower highs and lower lows could be the blueprint for the days and weeks ahead.
Short
by HayeTrading
2
EURUSD - A review of this week's newsWe're beginning to see a Tale Of Two Economies emerge, as US data this week shows the path of disinflation continues, albeit slowly, giving investors hope that the Fed's interest rate increases are making an impact. Meanwhile across the pond, all quotes from the ECB are warning that the fight against inflation rages on and further rate hikes will be coming. However, one major factor hanging over the Dollar is the news that there is "significant risk", according to the CBO, that the US won't be able to pay all of it's obligations as soon as the beginning of June, leading to the possibility of a default unless Congress votes to raise or suspend the Debt Ceiling. From a technical perspective we see EURUSD failed a number of attempts to break through at the highs and has now begun to create lower highs and lows with it's violent moves down in recent days. Key trendlines and support levels have been broken and all signs point to the countertrend move having begun. While we appear overextended on lower timeframes, it may be prudent to wait patiently for a new lower high for a viable short entry. It seems likely that we're witnessing a breakout to the upside on the DXY combined with profit taking and shift in sentiment for the Euro due to continued inflationary pressure in contrast to US inflation. United States (US): US CPI YoY 4.9% (Forecast 5%) : Consumer prices rose 4.9% on an annual basis, below forecast. US Core PPI YoY Actual 3.2% (Forecast 3.3%, Previous 3.4%): The US core Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 3.2% year-on-year, slightly below the forecasted 3.3%. US PPI MoM Actual 0.2% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous -0.5%): The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% on a monthly basis, slightly below the forecasted 0.3%. US Initial Jobless Claims Actual 264k (Forecast 245k, Previous 242k): The number of Americans filing for initial unemployment benefits rose to 264,000, exceeding the forecasted 245,000. This increase suggests ongoing challenges in the US job market. The “single biggest threat” to the economy now is the US hurtling towards a default on its obligations, said Karine Jean-Pierre, press secretary. European Central Bank (ECB): ECB: Consumers see 5% inflation over the next 12 months vs 4.6% in February : The European Central Bank (ECB) reports that consumers in the Eurozone expect inflation to reach 5% over the next 12 months. This represents an increase from the previous estimate of 4.6% in February, reflecting growing concerns about rising prices. ECB's Nagel says the "latest interest rate hike won't be the last". ECB's Lagarde spoke on Thursday, saying "the fight against inflation isn't over".
Short
by HayeTrading
2
BTC - Critical Zone ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. As per my last analysis (attached on the chart), we have been waiting for the bulls to approach the green major low to look for buy setups. BTC is now sitting around that green area and since the daily candle hasn't closed below it, we will be looking for buy setups. 🏹 For the bulls to take over, we need a break above the red channel and last minor high in gray. 📈 Meanwhile, until the bulls take over, the bears will remain in control, especially if we break below the green zone. Then a movement till the 25,000 support zone as mentioned on my last week's BTC analysis Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen first? and why? 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
36
USDCAD - Bears Took Over, Now Wait For Bulls!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. As per my last analysis (attached on the chart) USDCAD rejected our upper red trendline and supply, and traded lower. Now USDCAD is approaching the lower bound of the symmetrical triangle again so we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes. Moreover, the green zone is a strong support. 🏹 So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower red trendline. (acting as non-horizontal support) As per my trading style: As USDCAD is sitting around the purple circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Long
by TheSignalyst
5
BTC - Key Rejection Zone!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. BTC rejected the 30,000 resistance zone and now trading lower for a bearish correction. If BTC breaks below 27,000 previous major low, we will expect a movement till 25,000 zone where we will be looking for long-term trend-following buy setups. 🏹 Here is why the 25,000 zone marked by red circle is a strong support: 1- Round number => 25,000 2- Classic Resistance Zone Turned Support 3- Lower red trendline acting as a non-horizontal support 4- Lower orange trendline acting as a non-horizontal support 5- Demand zone 📈 As per my trading style: As BTC approaches the red circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
33
ETH - Long-Term Trend-Following Setup 🏹Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. After rejecting the 2000 resistance, ETH has been bearish short-term making lower lows and lower highs on H4. 🏹 Here is why the 1750 zone marked by purple circle is a strong support: 1- Round number => 1750 2- Classic Resistance Zone Turned Support 3- Lower red trendline acting as a non-horizontal support 4- Demand zone 📈 As per my trading style: As ETH approaches the purple circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
19
A Four Hour Evening Star Formed at 38.2Weekly momentum may suggests that intraday momentum is bullish. Last week closed out a very strong bullish engulfing from the low of a weekly range. However The Daily is currently at a key reversal area despite its attempt to create a higher high. The 4 hour has been uptrending with high highs and higher lows despite many weak bullish candles. I believe price is relativelty close to topping out at its high for a reversal given that a confirmed evening star formed at a zone, resistance and the major 38.2 level. The one hour has already broken a bullish correction trendline and the 8MA has crossed to the downside of the 21SMA. 0.67872 is a key area for a short re-test as well as the wick of the evening star. There a monthly resistance right above this new high. I'll be monitoring the 4 hour timeframe for more signs of bear strenth. I'll be looking to enter on a 30MIN or 1 hour set up.
Short
by DesharedPierreJr.
How to identify a trend reversal using market structureThere are multiple ways to identify a trend reversal . You can look at the price and see if it was going up and is now going down and BOOM congratulations! You just spotted a reversal. However, I always like to analyse the market a little bit more and try to quantify what I see. This helps me to trade unemotionally and make fewer mistakes in analysing the markets. So how do we do this? Let's get into it. Determine the important price points at the initial trend . Which are in this example (bearish trend) the lower highs and the lower lows the downtrend trend keeps forming. Always look for the lower lows/highs and higher lows/highs in a trend. As long as a downtrend keeps making lower lows and lower highs, the downtrend is continuing. As always, the price starts consolidating eventually which means that no new set of lower lows and lower highs are made. When the price breaks the level of the last lower high (to the upside). We have a potential break of the market structure (BOS). Which indicates to us the potential trend reversal. When after this BOS a higher low is formed and after the higher low is a new higher high formed then you just spotted a successful BOS and trend reversal. All these higher and lower lows and highs may sound confusing. The best way to learn is by practise and not by reading. So please practise this on your favourite pairs and you will notice that it gives you more confidence in the market but also a clear vision of the structure of the pair or market you are analysing. This is not a trading strategy to find good entries but more something you can always use alongside your strategy to give you a clear vision of the market you are trading. Let me know what you think!
Education
by yorick7878
2
NIO REVERSES within descending parallel channelOn the 30-minute chart, I have drawn the upper (red) and lower (green) trendlines of the descending parallel channel. While it had been riding the upper edge of the Fibonacci/ EMA channel, it has reversed and headed toward the base EMA with the candles green to red. The zero-lag MACD indicator lines crossed above the histogram while the True Strength Index oscillator has had a line cross in the supply / resistance zone for further information. I conclude it is time to close long positions in profit and cross the aisle into short positions. I will take a put option trade for the expirations of 5/19 @ $ 9.50 but a less risky trade would be a longer exiration by 1-2 weeks ( while at the same time decreasing the reward potential.)
NYSE:NIOShort
by AwesomeAvani
BTC - Medium-Term View 🔎Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📌 H4: Left Chart BTC is currently overall bearish from a medium-term perspective trading inside the falling channel in orange. Now BTC is sitting around the upper orange trendline acting as a non-horizontal resistance. 📌 on H1: Right Chart BTC bullish short-term as a correction trading inside the rising channel in red. If BTC breaks below the lower red trendline and zone, we will expect the next bearish impulse to start pushing till the lower orange trendline. 📉 Meanwhile, BTC is still bullish short-term and can still break above the upper orange trendline to retest the 30k-32k zone. Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen first? and why? 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
18
SPCE ? Consolidation ? Short Squeeze ?SPCE is at a line in the sand of the chaos of the market. On the 4H chart, price has bottomed and might be making a reversal pivot as supported by a rising line segment on the RSI out of the oversold zone. The though of a reversal is also supported by price crossing over the POC line of the volume profile. Price above the POC line shows buyers are dominating although some of the buyers are buying to cover shorts. Below the POC line, sellers are dominating. If SPCE can get a trajectory upward, a short squeeze could ignite a launch. ( Fundamentally, SPCE is dying and waiting for Eton Musk to make a good offer.) This could be worth watching with an alert set 10% above the current price and a volume alert at 50% above the moving average 20-day volume.
NYSE:SPCE
by AwesomeAvani
1
NZDCAD - Still Trading The Channel 📉Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. NZDCAD has been overall bearish trading inside the falling channel in orange, and as per my last analysis (attached on the chart) we have been trading the channel. Now NZDCAD is approaching the upper trendline again. As per my trading style: As NZDCAD is sitting around the purple circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) We will be looking for sell setups, UNLESS the channel is broken upward. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Short
by TheSignalyst
10
Time to buy PLUG? The PLUG short I posted a while back turned out to be right-on-the-money. Now I wonder if it's time to scale back in. PLUG has been absolutely hammered and is lagging behind the recent rally. I trade based on technicals, so I have no fundamentals to point to as to why this might be the time to buy PLUG, but looking at the chart, I can't help but think: Who the hell is selling here? We've clearly established some local support around HKEX:9 here, supported by the VPVR spike circled on the right. I think this is going to come down to macro trends, so this idea could easily get invalidated. But I've marked some targets based on previous levels I'll be looking to take profit on if we do see the rally I'm hoping for. If this idea^ doesn't sound all that convincing, then don't buy, I don't blame you. I would consider this a pretty aggressive entry point, but I'm not watching the market closely enough to wait around for more clear indicators of a reversal. So I'm yolo'ing in and will set an alert to prompt me to stop out if I'm wrong. I already got stopped out of my previous re-entry attempt, which is also partly which I'm scaling in. I also marked a mega-bear target, in case I'm horribly wrong and the market nukes or continues to slowly bleed down for some reason. Happy trades, CD
NASDAQ:PLUGLong
by cryptodonovan
5
ABT Abbott Labs Med Tech Short Setting UpABT is shown on a 4H chart as setting up for a short trade. Demand and Summply Zones are charted by the LuxAlgo indicator. Price touched the supply zone five times in December- January then descended and touched the demand zone several times in mid-March. Fundamentally, earnings reports have been solid. Medical stocks are generally independent of the economy and recession resilient. ABT has risen off the base of bottoms at support . Relative volume exceeds that of the past year showing investor/trader interest has increased. I think it will progress to touch the supply / resistance zone another once or twice and then reverse into a solid downtrend. I see this as worth watching this upcoming week for the reversal.
NYSE:ABTShort
by AwesomeAvani
DOGE - Around Support Again ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. As per my last analysis (attached on the chart), we know that DOGE has been sitting around a strong resistance and round number 0.1 DOGE rejected the resistance and traded lower, and now it is sitting around 0.08 support in blue. 🏹 For the bulls to take over short-term , we need a break above the last major high from H4 highlighted in orange. 🏹 And for the bulls to take over from a long-term perspective, we need a daily close above 0.107 In this case, a movement till the next resistance 0.13 would be expected. 📉 If we break below 0.075 , we will be expecting further bearish movement till the lower red trendline where we will be looking for new short-term buy setups. Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen first? and why? 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
18
EURJPY - Strong Resistance Ahead ↘️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. EURJPY has been overall bullish trading inside the red rising broadening wedge pattern, however it is currently approaching the upper red trendline. Moreover, the blue zone 150.0 is a strong resistance and round number. 🏹 So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance and upper red trendline. (acting as non-horizontal resistance) As per my trading style: As EURJPY approaches the upper purple circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Short
by TheSignalyst
6