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Reversal

GBPNZD - Looking For Sell Setups ↘️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. on DAILY: Left Chart GBPCHF has been stuck inside a big range and it is currently sitting around the upper bound so we will be looking for sell setups on lower timeframes. on H1: Right Chart GBPNZD is forming a wedge pattern in red but it is not ready to go yet. For the bears to take over, we need a momentum candle close below the last major low in gray. Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, GBPCHF would be overall bullish and can still break the resistance upward. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Short
by TheSignalyst
5
GBPNZD - Looking For Sell Setups ↘️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. on WEEKLY: Left Chart GBPNZD is sitting around a strong weekly resistance in green, so we will be looking for sell setups on lower timeframes. on H4: Right Chart GBPNZD has been overall bearish trading inside the red channel and it is currently sitting around the upper trendline. 🏹 So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance and upper red trendline. As per my trading style: As GBPNZD is sitting around the purple circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
1
$HOOD - A New Generation, A New Bull MarketState of the Stock Robinhood’s time in the stock market has been an arduous one and not one without controversy. The stock went public in a hotly anticipated IPO at about $36.41 on July 29th, 2021. It saw tremendous interest in the first week of trading reaching an overly lofty value at ~$85 a share before starting to sell off. This sell off has relentlessly continued and in many places, you will find negative commentary on the stock. I personally believe that the stock’s price action bottomed on June 17th, 2022 at about $6.84 a share. Since then the stock has been slowly plodding along and striking higher lows, which I will illustrate later in the charting. I also believe that the stock’s story is close to turning around and could get more positive attention in the later half of this year. I am going to talk about the balance sheet, cost cutting, charts, and the controversy. I will be limiting my comments on the balance sheet to lines that I believe deserve notice. For this post, I will be comparing Robinhood to their old school rival, Charles Schwab. The Balance Sheet (See Robinhood's Financials) Overall, I read Robinhood’s balance sheet as being quite strong. Particularly in the amount of cash and sort term investments that the company is carrying. At 5.46 Billion in cash and 1.52 Billion in short term investments the company can cover operating expenses (excl. COGS) for about 3.5 years. The company has also shared that the short term investments are in <1 year term treasuries. Which is quite a good decision given the current rates. I only wish they had purchased a little more than 500 million or so. As of this writing (6-11-23), Robinhood carries a market cap of ~$8.5 billion as well. Their cash position is nearly the size of their entire equity. In comparison, SCHW (Charles Schwab) has about $75 billion in cash and a market cap of 100 Billion. I believe that the market is underestimating how Robinhood can deploy that cash. Lastly, Robinhood is very close (9.41 market) to their book value per share (7.83). In comparison, SCHW has a book value per share of 15.36 and is trading at 55.0 in the market. I believe this illustrates that Robinhood is quite cheap, even after the June ’22 bounce when it was cheaper than the book. (See Robinhood's Financials) Next, the cashflow at Robinhood is quite good and turned positive in Q4’22. Whereas their rivals are experiencing negative free cash flow during this same period. Robinhood, on a relative basis for this metric, looks to be outperforming during the banking crisis. During their earnings calls they have also reported a net increase in deposits as well as assets under custody (AUC) increasing by an impressive 26% due to the run on stocks in 2023. What I find most interesting about this is that customer cash in Robinhood has steadily grown to $11 billion from $2 billion at IPO. It has been on an impressive path of growth. I believe this is the result of their strong “Brokerage Cash Sweep” program and the rates they’ve been able to offer. They have been able to effectively remove the friction between treasury yield and their customers. This also creates a beneficial situation where their clients can deploy capital quickly, while maintaining some yield from their cash. Effectively, creating productive reserves for their customers who can choose to deploy it at any moment right on their app. (See Robinhood's Financials) Lastly, the company itself is quite close to profitability. The next 4 quarters are projected by broader WallStreet to come in at an EPS of about -0.01 to -0.03. Any positive change in their costs or earnings could lead to a surprise profit. Such as cash from treasury yield, cost cutting measures, new products, or increased business. The company itself continues to stress, that they are becoming leaner as time goes on. I believe that to be true. Cutting Costs – The Layoffs In 2022, Robinhood performed several rounds of lay offs. This allowed them to cut Q2 ’22 and Q3 ’22 operating expenses significantly (excl. COGS). This does not appear to have impacted their revenue growth and has given them the added benefit of being ‘right sized’. And to the best of my knowledge, no further lay offs are currently on the table. In fact, their revenue is now higher than it has ever been since IPO at $447 million and is pushing them ever closer to profitability. “Robinhood Is Laying Off 9% of Its Full-Time Employees” – Wall Street Journal, Apr. 29, 2022 www.wsj.com “Robinhood Lays Off 23% of Staff as Retail Investors Fade From Platform” – Wall Street Journal, Aug. 2, 2022 www.wsj.com 2023 Road Map – 4 Catalysts Now that we’ve talked about cost cutting, let’s take a look at the road map and see if there are opportunities for fundamental growth. I will list out 4 that I believe can have a positive impact on their business. Options Trading in Cash Accounts Margin Outside Gold Futures Trading UK Market Expansion Lets tackle the first two on the list. Options Trading in Cash Accounts should continue to grow their existing business. This should increase their revenue generated per user as more current customers have access to more products. Options trading is particularly popular among Robinhood’s customer demographic. Margin Outside Gold I find personally controversial. I personally don’t believe in using margin. Regardless, it should also increase their revenue generated per user. While both of these are improvements that could turn the company profitable for EPS. They are not as major as the next two items. Futures trading would open an entire new market for the Robinhood user. I believe it is an incredibley potent catalyst for their user base and will allow their customers to trade more often and in new ways. Robinhood advancing offerings for active traders In March, we applied for a Futures Commission Merchant license and, if approved on a typical timeline, we expect to launch futures trading by the end of 2023. s28.q4cdn.com UK Market Expansion should allow them to acquire a significant number of new users. Robinhood continues to explore growth opportunities, expands access globally With an experienced team leading and an existing license in place, we believe we’re on track for our ambitious goal of launching brokerage services in the UK by the end of the year. s28.q4cdn.com To summarize, I believe expanding into a new country, the UK, and providing futures trading to their existing customers they expand their business significantly over time. Lets take a look now at the charts and see what we can find in the price action. Charting A Path The first thing of note on Robinhood’s stock chart is that a series of higher lows have been put in. The price action, for the first time since IPO, is showing an increasing pattern in the price. I believe the stock has a classic Falling Wedge which I interpret as bullish. I believe the wedge has formed because of the positive developments in the balance sheet, cost cutting, and the future outlook. Examining the MACD on the 1D time scale we also see higher lows put in as well as an MACD crossover onto the positive scale. Overall, I read the charts as having increasingly positive momentum. I also believe that momentum is growing, albeit slowly. Lastly, on the 2D time scale my favorite indicator, DMI, shows the bulls having taken control on ~May 24 2023. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that was the low after the most recent earnings report. I believe the majority of the bears have left the stock as evident by their strength at ~11.5. We also have seen the natural termination of the ADX which implies, to me, that the previous trading trend for the stock has come to an end. A new trend does appear to be forming. It could fizzle out, but that’s up to Robinhood’s management. I believe all of the necessary setups are currently there for them to succeed as both a company and a stock. Closing Thoughts & Possible Risks The Demographic & The Controversy By discussing Robinhood here, I feel that I must mention reddit’s r/wallstreetbets. The community there has a significant impact I believe on Robinhood’s success or failure. The community has a significant following and many of their members use the app. I believe they are an opportunity for Robinhood as well as a possible risk. The 14 million members are potential customers for the Futures trading introduction as well as the increased margin offerings. However, the community has aligned itself with being against the Robinhood app and have been in a ‘boycott’ of the app since the GME trading saga of early 2021. While the community is very vocal on the matter, many of the posts continue to show use of the Robinhood app. At a minimum, it remains controversial, but still in use. This has led me to believe that most of the drama has faded and because of the high quality product Robinhood offers, has started to draw users back to the app. I believe this is well illustrated in their MAU and NFA graphs. There’s a unique opportunity here for them to either win back this community or lose them forever. This could also be related to the flurry of trading activity seen in stocks related to AI in the past few months. Heavy Insider Selling An additional risk is that the insiders, specifically Tenev Vladimir, CEO & Bhatt Baiju, Chief Creative Officer, continue to sell large numbers of shares. This is creating an immense downward pressure on the stock price. If this pattern continues, it could contribute negatively to the stocks performance. However, I believe that’s a non-issue if the company becomes profitable. I hope that we are approaching the end of the insider selling. Crypto & SEC Action Additionally, due to recent events, Robinhood has pulled 3 of their crypto offerings. I believe this is another mixed risk. While they will take a revenue hit by delisting those tokens, they may end up gaining users if customers of Coinbase or Binance decide to take their business elsewhere. It could end up being beneficial to Robinhood, but there’s no way of knowing at this time. At the time of this writing there has been no report that I can find of Robinhood receiving a notice on the matters affecting Binance and Coinbase. Robinhood instead chose to remove the 3 affected securities voluntarily. I believe this is the responsible thing to do and well advised. By taking pre-emptive action they are protecting their business from getting entangled in the matter and remaining compliant with the SEC. This is a value the company has stated a number of times during their earnings calls. I believe their actions demonstrate that value and is representative of good governance from the company leadership. That said, the SEC could still take action against the company if they choose to do so. Therefore, it still carries some risk and must be considered. Macro & Last Thoughts So, here we are. It’s June 11th, 2023. Costs are significantly reduced and being controlled, notable Roadmap 2023 objectives are close, plans for new markets and offerings are approaching, and revenue continues to grow. The company is just a few pennies away on EPS from breaking even or potentially turning a profit. There is also significant distance from the drama surrounding GameStop, Robinhood, and WallStreetBets. The charts are showing higher lows being put in place. More positive momentum looks to be coming into the stock via the MACD. Additionally, the bulls appear to have taken control via the DMI on ~May 24th, 2023. I believe this is a case where a significant breakout could occur. It remains to be seen if it will, but I believe there is a potential trade here to the upside. It is not without downside risk though and that must be taken into consideration. Current thinking in the market is that we may be entering a new bull market based off of recent SP500 closing levels. However, the macroeconomic picture still remains unclear. Particularly in regards to inflation, interest rates, and consumer spending. If it is a new bull market, Robinhood may benefit from increased trading activity, but if the macroeconomic picture deteriorates it could degrade Robinhood’s business and affect the stock. Either way, I personally believe the stock is in an interesting position within the market. Trade carefully, trade wisely. ~Kryptonite As always, please consult the appropriate professionals for any financial decisions. I am not a professional. I am an amateur hobbyist. These are my own personal opinions that I’ve expressed regarding the market and the companies mentioned above. I am not responsible for any decision, trade, or investment you may make. You should assume that as of the publication date of any report, post, or communication referencing any publicly traded security or asset that Kryptonite Research (myself) may have a position in the security or asset and I might stand to realize significant gains if the price of the stock moves. Following publication of any report, post, or communication, I intend to continue transacting in the securities covered therein, and Kryptonite Research (myself) may be long, short, or even neutral at any time thereafter regardless of Kryptonite Research’s (myself) initial position. I reserve the right to alter my position at any time without notice. Images are sourced from the TradingView app, Adobe Stock photos, and Robinhood’s Investor Relations. I do not claim ownership. As an additional disclaimer, at the time of this writing I am a Robinhood customer and holding a position in Robinhood’s stock.
NASDAQ:HOODLong
by AthenaResearch
1
ETH - Boring Range Until... 🕝Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. on DAILY: Left Chart As per my last analysis, we know that ETH is approaching a strong rejection zone as it is the intersection of a horizontal support in green and lower trendlines in blue and red. So we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes. on H4: Right Chart 🏹 For the bulls to take over from a short-term perspective, we need a break above the previous major low in orange. Meanwhile, ETH can still trade lower till the daily green support. Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen first? and why? 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
19
EURAUD - Wait For The Trigger 🏹Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. on DAILY: Left Chart As per my last analysis, we know that EURAUD is sitting around a strong rejection zone as it is the intersection of a horizontal support in blue and a non-horizontal support in red. So we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes. on H1: Right Chart EURAUD has been overall bearish medium-term. However, it is diving inside the daily support zone. 🏹 For the bulls to take over , for a potential shift in momentum, we need a break above the last major high in gray and upper orange trendline. Meanwhile, EURAUD can still trade lower. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Long
by TheSignalyst
3
Procter & Gamble is soon to see good times Ahead TECHNICALS - Procter & Gamble has formed a nice Positive Divergence or Hidden Bullish Divergence pattern on the Monthly chart indicating upside momentum on the chart It has also Reversed Twice from a Strong Support level which had earlier acted as Resistance level indicating further upside potential for the stock It has also tested 50 Day Moving Average and has reversed from it nicely FUNDAMENTALS - It is in the sector of Consumer Non-Durable Goods (healthcare & hygiene) which is an all-weather sector making the stock immune even to the upcoming recession (if it comes at all) Its EBITDA & Net Profit Margin growth stands at 24% & 17% which beats almost 90% of its peers and ROE is at 31% which is the industry standard If that's not enough then the stock also gives a dividend with yield at 2.72% and it has paid dividend for 133 years and raised dividend for 67 consecutive years, what could be a better alternative than such a stable dividend paying stock during the upcoming downturn in the market (if it comes)
NYSE:PGLong
by peace_lover
EURAUD - OverSold Zone Ahead 👌Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. EURAUD is overall bearish trading inside the falling channel in red, and we are currently approaching the lower bound. Moreover, the zone 1.590 is a support zone . 🏹 So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the blue support and lower red trendline. As per my trading style: As EURAUD is sitting around the purple circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
9
USDJPY rejected at 4H Lower HighI decided to short UJ here as the 4H shooting star at a re-tested area was a bearish enough signal for me to go short. Price has been making Lower Highs on 4H and daily chart. The bullish candles have been forming with a lot of indecision. This entry was taken based on the 4H close, as well as the 1H presenting a strong evening star at a Evening star re-test. My entry was upon a bearish 15min engulfing at a potential high/re-test of resistance. My stop loss is just Above the high of the shooting star. My target is the next daily Lower Low.
Short
by DesharedPierreJr.
2
Gold broke another correction trendlineI believe that as gold continues to become bullish at support that its willing to break into a higher high. Currently the downtrend momentum is halted by consolidation. Because the overall trend is currently bearish, I will await a reversal candlestick along with volatility on support for any long positions. Potentially a false breakout to the downside. Currently there will be some intraday bearish activity as another shooting star presented at resistance and a bearish engulfing. Price is currently trading beneath the neckline of a double top.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DesharedPierreJr.
EURUSD intraday 1st higher highI believe EURUSD is reversing as it formed its first higher high within this consolidation range. ADX was not bullish during this move, however structure was broke. I will look to capitalize on any breakout. I have a zone marked at the bottom of the zone as the daily has formed two bullish reversal candlesticks along with volatility at support. Currently price is at daily swing high, which price failed to break. The 4H has formed a higher high and is retracing with indecision to form a higher low. If the daily support holds. Im long EURUSD.
Long
by DesharedPierreJr.
ETH - Trio Retest ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. ETH has been overall bullish from a long-term perspective trading inside the rising broadening wedge in blue. After rejecting the 2000 resistance, ETH has been in a bearish correction trading inside the falling red channel. 🏹 Here is why the 1700 - 1750 zone marked by purple circle is a strong support: 1- Round number 1700 2- Classic Resistance Zone Turned Support 3- Lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support 4- Lower red trendline acting as oversold zone 5- Demand zone 📈 As per my trading style: As ETH approaches the purple circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
19
How to Analyze the $SPY Daily ChartGreetings fellow traders, Welcome to this installment of our newsletter where we analyze price action on AMEX:SPY on the daily, hourly, and 15 minute timeframes. We will keep this one short and sweet. DAILY TIMEFRAME What is the Trend? The short term trend is bullish: the 9-candle EMA is trading above the 20-candle EMA. The medium term trend is bullish: the 20-candle EMA is trading above the 50-candle EMA. The longer term trend is bullish: the 50-candle EMA is trading above the 200-candle EMA. How Strong is the Current Trend? One of the ways that traders can analyze the strength of a trend is by appeal to the Average Directional Index (ADX). Readings below 20 indicate a weak or non-existent trend. If the ADX is going up, readings between 20 and 40 indicate a developing early trend of low to moderate strength. Readings between 40 and 55 indicate a strong, well-established and robust trend. And finally readings above 55 indicate an extremely strong trend that is likely approaching exhaustion. At the moment, the ADX is 25.04 on the daily chart, indicating a low strength trend that can, with additional momentum, pick up steam. But how likely is this? In order to answer that question, we are going to have to look at several other technical indicators, supply and demand levels, and chart patterns. One of these technical indicators is the relationship between the 9-candle EMA and the 20-candle EMA. Despite the impressive upward move in price action yesterday, the distance between the 9-candle EMA and the 20-candle EMA remained constant from the day before. If the trend was strong, you would expect the distance between the two to be increasing. The fact that it did not is a potential warning sign that the trend is not extremely strong at the moment. What do the Momentum Oscillators Tell Us? Another thing to consider are the two main momentum oscillators: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator. These momentum oscillators can give us clues as to whether or not the current trend is reaching exhaustion, or if it is likely to continue. Let’s first consider RSI. As of yesterday’s close, we have an RSI reading of 65.86 — a reading that is approaching the technical overbought level of 70. For reference, the last time that AMEX:SPY was trading at these levels was in August of 2022. During that incredible summer rally, the RSI pushed all the way up to 73.43 before the trend reached exhaustion and a powerful reversal ensued. Bearing that in mind, you should not necessarily be surprised if AMEX:SPY were to push into that overbought territory this time around as well before reversing. That being said, the Stochastic Oscillator is flashing a reading of 97.52, which is incredibly close to the maximum overbought reading of 100. This is a major indication for technical analysts that we may soon see a mean reversion in price action so that this all-important momentum oscillator can “cool off” for a bit. Indeed, it has been 6 days since AMEX:SPY last made contact with its 9-candle EMA, suggesting that we are potentially due for a basic reversion to the mean in price action. If we were to first push higher, though, there are a few levels on AMEX:SPY to keep in mind. How High can the Market Push? The first is the upper Bollinger Band, which closed yesterday at 430.97. While that value will shift higher today, this upper band is a level to keep in mind as potential resistance should the market catch an end-of-the-week bid. The second level is the high from August 2022: 431.73. Both of these levels are within reach if bulls want them. Finally, if things get really crazy, keep your eyes on 435.34. Are there Signs of Bearish Divergence? Notwithstanding the potential for one final push to enter the overbought territory on RSI, it is very important to note that on Monday of this week we received a technical bearish divergence signal in price action. Even though the market made a higher high than at any point in the previous 30 trading days, we did not get a higher high in: The reading on the Relative Strength Index The reading on the Stochastic Oscillator The reading on MACD When these indicators fail to make higher highs while price is making higher highs, this is an incredibly strong sign of bearish divergence. Should the market push into close, positioning for a mean reversion pullback during power hour should certainly be on watch. What are the Mean Reversion Price Targets? However high price ultimately pushes before reversal, it would be prudent to keep the following potential pullback levels in mind if you are trying to play a mean-reversion trade. The first target would be the 9-candle EMA. While it is currently trading at 424.54, this value will change with each passing day. You can use this, or potentially the 14-candle EMA, as your first “profit-taking target” for a mean reversion trading strategy. Do keep in mind, though, that there is currently some solid demand between 426.14 and 425.82 that we will have to break through in order to gain some selling momentum. The second target, should the first be broken, would be 422.58, a previous resistance level. The third “stretch” target would be around 420.73. Anything below 420 would likely see 418.31. What are the Main Supply and Demand Levels to Add to our Charts? Finally, make sure to track the recent supply and demand levels on the daily timeframe: 429.62 420.72 417.62 415.72 411.92 Stay tuned for the follow-up video where we zoom in on the hourly chart for more specific short-term guidance.
AMEX:SPY
by FadingExtremes
GBPJPY - OverBought Zone ↘️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. GBPJPY has been overall bullish trading inside the red rising channel, however it is currently approaching the upper red trendline. Moreover, the green zone is a strong resistance. 🏹 So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance and upper red trendline. (acting as non-horizontal resistance) As per my trading style: As GBPJPY approaches the upper purple circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
7