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LEU - Finally a bullish signal with lots of room to the upsideI've been watching Centrus Energy (LEU) for the past few weeks considering they are a strong company and we're in a very strong controlled selling (yellow) algorithm for some time. I was waiting for a bullish sign of reversal prior to finding support at tapered blue - which we saw last week when price was picked up by teal buying continuation. We are now gapping up above our strong yellow selling algo and our next stop will be to test the breakout of orange more tapered selling. If we reject off of orange, we will be looking for one of our buying continuation channels, preferably yellow (very strong) to pick up price and take us out of orange where we will then have the opportunity to attempt a magenta tapered break. Will keep you posted with further analysis as price develops! Happy Monday and as always, Happy Trading :)
AMEX:LEULong
by ReigningTrades
Identify reversals and confirmation.Step to identify the beginning of a reversal and making a decision for a trade. 1. Draw/mark the current trend based on HH/HL/LH/LL, and use the trend line at those points. 2. If the current price crosses the trendline, that's an early signal for a reversal. 3. confirmation of a reversal when the price breaks the structure/pattern (bottom/top). 4. After the above happens, the weighting of the position in the small timeframe (3m/5m) is based on the larger timeframe (1H). For example, 1H reversal up and then 5m should look for a buy signal/keep buy. 5. The distances of target for the buy condition must be limited in the supply zone=previous higher high/lower high. Vice versa, a distance of targets for the sell condition must be limit in the demand zone=previous higher low/lower low. 6. you can combine with other measuring tools such as stochastic or RSI. The example here uses Trend Circle Divergence (TCD) based on RSI, wave of momentum, EMAs, and MACD. *Please refer to the chart below for in-depth information and analysis. How do reversals happen and identify appropriate positions? Price action/movement, patterns, and their effects
MYX:FCPO1!
by TraderAsist
XAU/USD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailsGold prices resumed it's upward momentum on Friday, closing the week with gains amid a decrease in US Treasury bond yields. The 10-year benchmark note saw a decline of three and a half basis points, settling at 4.248%. Despite recent comments from Federal Reserve officials suggesting a somewhat hawkish stance, investors responded positively by reducing expectations for Fed interest rate cuts. The release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes for January revealed a cautious approach among policymakers regarding rate cuts, particularly in light of recent inflationary pressures. While recognizing a more balanced outlook for achieving both mandates, policymakers emphasized their continued vigilance towards inflation, with economic risks perceived as tilted to the downside. The Fed aims to maintain interest rates in the range of 5.25% to 5.50% for the time being, seeking to assess whether January's inflation data reflects a temporary spike or a sustained trend. This reluctance to immediately implement rate cuts is seen as a measure to mitigate potential upward pressures on consumer prices. In light of this, the cost of holding assets like Gold, which do not provide yields is likely going to go up. The future movement of safe-haven assets will be influenced by market expectations regarding potential Fed rate cuts. This video sheds light on the technical understanding of the market structure in other to unravel the potential trajectory of price action in the upcoming week. XAUUSD Technical Overview: In this video, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the XAUUSD chart, utilizing both technical and fundamental perspectives. Our examination included an in-depth study of key levels, historical price movements, market behaviors, and the interplay between buyers and sellers, aiming to unveil potential trading opportunities. Our focal point for the week is the $2,025 zone, endowed with historical significance, rendering it a pivotal level. The sustainability of bullish momentum above this zone could pave the way for continued buying pressure, potentially propelling prices to new highs. Conversely, a breach below the $2,025 level, coupled with persistent selling pressure, might signal a resurgence of bearish sentiment. #GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets 📺🔔💼 Disclaimer Notice: Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances. Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it. Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by darcsherry
GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upMarket participants are eagerly awaiting fresh guidance on Bank of England (BoE) interest rates as uncertainty lingers over the timing of potential rate cuts. Speculation suggests the central bank might consider reducing interest rates in the early part of the second half of the year, with the likelihood of a rate cut in the June policy meeting currently below 50% and a dovish decision for August appearing increasingly probable. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey anticipates price pressures to ease towards the 2% target in spring before resuming an upward trajectory. This could pave the way for the BoE to contemplate a significant unwinding of its historically tight monetary policy stance. Recent UK data indicates an improving economic outlook, suggesting that the technical recession experienced in the latter half of last year may have come to an end. Despite these positive developments, the Pound's performance remains subdued relative to expectations given the better UK data and strong risk appetite. On the other hand, the US Dollar has stabilized following a recovery amidst tightening labor market conditions. Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 16 came in lower than anticipated at 201K, compared to expectations of 218,000 and the previous reading of 213,000. Additionally, Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers emphasize the need for further evidence to support the expectation of inflation declining towards the 2% target. GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Will the pound continue its trajectory and sustain its momentum above the $1.27200 zone? The stakes are high, and we're on the edge of our seats! The spotlight is on high-impact economic events from the US docket for clues. Brace yourselves as the anticipation and the actual events may trigger sharp price movements that could present incredible trading opportunities. In this video, we've analyzed the Daily and 4-hour timeframes, exploring bullish and bearish sentiments to uncover the most promising trades for the week ahead. We've delved into key levels, trendlines, and support/resistance points, unveiling essential insights into the current market structure. We are keeping a close eye on the potential range between $1.26150 and $1.28200 where a breakdown or breakdown could incite the next BIG move. It's a decisive structure where both sellers and buyers will be vying for control, and how the market reacts here will set the course for GBPUSD in the upcoming days. Stay connected and join the conversation in the comment section to stay updated on the latest developments. Thank you for tuning in, and get ready for more enlightening insights into GBPUSD in our upcoming content. Buckle up for a thrilling journey ahead! Happy trading! Disclaimer Notice: Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances. Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it. Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
by darcsherry
1
Pattern within a pattern confirmation // EURGBP shortA reversal channel pattern is forming on the 1hr time frame, within a bearish flag that was formed in a HTF (4hr - Daily) of the EURGBP. If the price completes the reversal channel pattern, then there's a high probability of price dropping towards the weekly support area or reverse on the trendline that was formed by the falling wedge Pattern on the HTF (Daily). Place a pending order on the 15m time frame near the top of the reversal channel that is potentially forming currently.
Short
by SM_Makhuba
AXTI saw a massive pump this past week REVERSAL SHORTAXTI a penny stock in the semi-conductor supply chain business saw a great price gain this past week going more than 65% The call options ran 2000% on Friday along. On the 15 minute chart, I see signs it is in high overbought territory and setup for a reversal. Price fell below the longer of the two paired Hull Moving Averages which death crossed. The price volume trend indicator put in a massive bullish trend and then went flatline while the mass index indicator triggered a reversal. I have closed my call options and opened put contracts costing $130 each. I have considered that they could do 2000% a few days just as the call options did on Friday. Fundamentally, I beleive that semi-conductors have a down week ahead, see the idea uploaed for SOXS. ( If you wonder how i screened for and found AXTI like this idea and drop me a private message)
NASDAQ:AXTIShort
by AwesomeAvani
Using Multi-timeframe analysis to make better trading decisionsTrading on multiple timeframes can significantly improve your risk-reward ratio, regardless of what TA technique, you are using. Let’s look at the recent example (SPY ETF) Third week of February started with a strong sell-off (Monday-Tuesday 13th). Price retraced >50% of the previous move, signaling potential trend reversal. At this point market Bears started scouting for daily low high to enter short trade. They received signal on Friday 16th when price broke previous day low. A short trader, who trades only daily chart, would enter this trade at Friday close with stop-loss slightly above daily high and 1st profit target near Tuesday low. This setup provides a decent risk-reward ration >2. There is also a chance that previous low will be broken and price will fall even further, adding to profit. So taking this trade makes a lot of sense. On the main graph to this post you can see how it developed. Price has not reached our profit target, reversed and made new high. Trade got stopped-out. Even if trader was using trailing stop (stop moved slightly above each new day high) this would not have saved him from huge overnight price jump Could have the trader done better? Yes, if he had zoomed into lower timeframe and monitored price action there. Here is what we can see on the 15m chart. (boxes show hourly candles, color coding matches hourly wave direction, you can read about how waves are constructed here ) Bearish reversal pattern shaped on Thursday- Friday. It is not an ideal triple top but there was a clear weakening of upthrust. Also, on Friday morning price broke previous day low, a sign of an increased bearish strength. Basically, at 21.30 (UTC+1) short trader already had enough evidence to enter trade. He could have done it w/o waiting for day closure. This would have already been a better entrance than in the first scenario. After entering the trade, trader could start monitoring for continuation. Tuesday was clearly bearish but on Wednesday there were multiple signs of shift of control. Firstly, price was able to set hourly higher low. Secondly, bearish wave was progressing very slowly. Finally, there was a 15 m equilibrium (end of Wednesday RTH) that resolved convincingly bullish. At this point a reasonable trader should have closed his trade without hesitation. This would not be a great trade still, but it will be a profitable one, with risk-reward 1.7 . It is nearly impossible to achieve same results looking just on the daily chart. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advices, just sharing my thoughts
AMEX:SPYEducation
by hermes_trisme
BOIL ( Natural Gas Futures 3X leveraged) heats up LONGBOIL in the past month fell from a head and shoulders pattern on the 15 minute time frame into a trend down which leveled out into a double bottom. Supply is in a draw down right now as might be expected when gas production is diminished in the middle of winter while demand is rising. The Economics 101 expectation is rising prices on the futures market. The chart shows a Fibonacci retracement would take price from its current level to about 29 or about 20% upside if that level holds and more if prices can make a stronger more or if short positions or puts are forced to closed causing some buying pressure synergy. The RSI indicator confirms the reversal at the double bottom and adds a bit of insurance to the risk. Accordingly, I am expecting a 20% in the next 2-3 weeks. Target for 2/3 of the position is 29 while the other 1/3 ( short squeeze scenario) to run to a target of 33 which is the neckline of the H & S pattern. Taking a look at OTM call options striking $ 30-31 range. Additionally, I will watch the AI algo indicator for a Sell Signal and reassess the position at that time given its 90% accuracy at this given time frame as evidenced by a 2000 candle backtest ( or about 500 hours or 82 trading days). Energy may not be the hottest sector right now but nor is it the coldest.
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani
12
XAU/USD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailsAt the close of last week's trading, Gold has shown resilience by surpassing the $2,000 mark. Recent US economic indicators hint at persistent inflation, despite signals of potential policy adjustments from the Federal Reserve. Notably, Producer Price Index (PPI) data exceeded expectations, underscoring the Fed's ongoing efforts to manage inflation. Additionally, a positive shift in Consumer Sentiment reflects American optimism towards economic conditions. Considering these factors, Gold's trajectory remains intertwined with US economic prospects. Potential upticks in inflation could drive up US Treasury bond yields, leading to anticipated XAU/USD downside movements. Conversely, if inflation aligns with the Fed's targets, the possibility of rate cuts may weaken the US Dollar, potentially supporting XAU/USD upside potentials. This video delves into dissecting the current market landscape to help navigate strategic positioning for upcoming market movements. XAUUSD Technical Overview: In this video, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the XAUUSD chart, utilizing both technical and fundamental perspectives. Our examination included an in-depth study of key levels, historical price movements, market behaviors, and the interplay between buyers and sellers, aiming to unveil potential trading opportunities. Our focal point for the week is the $1,985 zone, endowed with historical significance, rendering it a pivotal level. The sustainability of bullish momentum above this zone could pave the way for continued buying pressure, potentially propelling prices to new highs. Conversely, a breach below the $1,985 level, coupled with persistent selling pressure, might signal a resurgence of bearish sentiment. Immerse yourself in the latest dynamics of the Gold market! Stay well-informed to make strategic investment decisions. #GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets 📺🔔💼 Disclaimer Notice: Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances. Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it. Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by darcsherry
1
TSLA - Where and why we can enter a confident long-term positionAside from Elon taking a stronger control position of the operations of the company (upping his equity stake from 10% to 20%), I also like the technicals of this chart for a near-term entry. We just bounced off of our handy dandy blue tapered HTF selling channel and are looking for some of our buying algorithms to take hold. We are also forming a nice inverse head and shoulders to further indicate this reversal. As always, I will keep you posted with analysis as price continues to move Happy Trading :)
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by ReigningTrades
ROKU falls after an earnings beat dissapointmentROKU on the 30 minute chart had a sell-off after earnings which were okay not great. Traders reacted. The question is whether it was an overreaction. I think it was. I am looking for a slow recovery over a week or more to at least the standard retracement level which I will call 98 as drawn by the tool. further upside targets are 101 and 104 based on VWAP bandlines. Buying on the discount is sometimes an excellent tool to reduce risk and use the reversion to the mean to best advantage and seize an overreaction in the market.
NASDAQ:ROKULong
by AwesomeAvani
XAU/USD | New perspective | follow-up detailsAmidst the revision of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers to accommodate new seasonal adjustment factors, the XAU/USD faced bearish pressure, culminating in a 0.50% dip, closing the week around the $2,025 area. This development has heightened focus on the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures from January, as market participants seek insights for potential Federal Reserve (Fed) decisions. Market participants are closely monitoring the Fed's actions, particularly as the soft CPI revisions appear to have provided some respite for officials contemplating rate adjustments. However, the strong Q1 growth predictions in the US market and escalating wage pressures within a tight job market suggest potential delays in rate cuts. Currently, the market sentiment indicates a shift from anticipating a cut in March to potentially expecting one in May. The forthcoming inflation reading will play a pivotal role in determining the timing of the easing cycle. Should the data support a delay in rate cuts, it could lead to further downside for the price of Gold. In this video, we delve into the current market conditions from a technical standpoint, providing insights into understanding and interpreting these developments. XAUUSD Technical Overview: In this video, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the XAUUSD chart, utilizing both technical and fundamental perspectives. Our examination included an in-depth study of key levels, historical price movements, market behaviors, and the interplay between buyers and sellers, aiming to unveil potential trading opportunities. Our focal point for the week is the $2,025 zone, characterized by historical significance, rendering it a pivotal level. The sustainability of bullish momentum above this zone could pave the way for continued buying pressure, potentially propelling prices to new highs. Conversely, a breach below the $2,025 level, coupled with persistent selling pressure, might signal a resurgence of bearish sentiment. Immerse yourself in the latest dynamics of the Gold market! Stay well-informed to make strategic investment decisions. #GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets 📺🔔💼 Disclaimer Notice: Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances. Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it. Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by darcsherry
2
FCEL Energy Penny Stock Buy the near term Bottom LongFCEL a penny alternative energy stock is at a near-term bottom sitting at the POC line of the volume profile and a standard deviation below the intermediate-term mean VWAP about a month out from a good earnings beat. Given the current administrations unwavering support for green enerby sometimes with grants subsidies and other hand- outs I see FCEL as getting some trader attention of the good kind unlike PLUG which announced a large public offering to dilute investors. FCEL could steal some of those investors. The supertrend indicator is signaling a reversal at the confluence of the POC line with the VWAP band as mentioned. My target is the mean VWAP at 1.50 for about 35% upside with a stop loss at the recent pivot low of $1.09 making for a reward-to-risk ratio of better than 6. I see this as a swing trade with potentially 75 days in front of it given the earning report for 24Q1 is due a bit beyond that and best risk management would be to take a partial and size down going into earnings.
NASDAQ:FCELLong
by AwesomeAvani
2
Can FSR move higher? LONGFSR on the one hour chart fell from a triple top in mid July into the lower range of the volume profile's high volume area then bounced higher in a series of higher highs but then rolled over and fell again/ It has consolidated sideways about that POC line and now is above it. The indicators including Directional Index Zero Lag MACD and dual time frame RSI all indicate a return to bullish momentum. I will take a long trade the horizontal levels on the chart served as tiered targets for a risk managed trade. I will take some call options contracts as well. I think FSR may follow the market leader in TSLA for a bit.
FLong
by AwesomeAvani
USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upExplore the latest market dynamics in our new video as we analyze the USD/JPY movement, surging over 0.90% to 148.05 following a robust US jobs report and elevated Treasury yields. The addition of 353K jobs in January has shifted Fed rate cut forecasts, reflecting a tightening labor market and bolstering confidence in the US economy. However, amidst this positive momentum, factors such as heightened conflicts in the Middle East are fostering cautious sentiment among investors. The Japanese Yen, drawing in some buying potential, cannot be overlooked. Additionally, the Bank of Japan's recent hawkish stance signals potential shifts away from extensive stimulus and negative short-term interest rates, potentially providing support to the Yen. As we navigate these intricate market dynamics, this video serves as your guide, offering insights on how to plan your positions strategically for the upcoming week. USDJPY Technical Analysis: As discussed in the video, the recent upward momentum is showing signs of easing, leaving room for a possible USD pullback. However, for a confirmed uptrend continuation, we need to see sustained trading above 148.500. Our detailed technical analysis focused on the current bullish market structure, with particular attention to the crucial level of 148.800, set as a pivotal point for the upcoming week. This level gains significance as a potential catalyst for a clear uptrend if buying pressure persists. The market's response to this level at the beginning of the new week will strongly influence the direction of price action in the days ahead. Join me in exploring potential trading opportunities using trendlines, key levels, and chart patterns. Stay connected to my channel, follow updates, and actively participate in the comment section as we navigate the dynamic USDJPY market together. Wishing you success as you navigate the USDJPY market this week! #USDJPY #technicalanalysis #tradingopportunities #inflation #monetarypolicy #Fed #interestrates #economicanalysis #Forextrading Disclaimer Notice: Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances. Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it. Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
by darcsherry
Bollinger Bands Part II: Reversal PatternsBollinger Bands Part II: Reversal Patterns Analzying Two Key Patterns Called M-Tops and W-Bottoms This post will go into greater depth than the basic introduction to Bollinger Bands published last week. In particular, it will discuss two key reversal patterns. Both the M-top reversal pattern and W-bottom reversal pattern are price patterns that form in conjunction with the Bollinger Bands. M-Top Pattern The classic M-top reversal pattern forms when two consecutive price highs form an M-shaped price pattern with the first high tagging the upper band and the second high exhausting before tagging the upper band. An example is shown on Supplemental Chart A involving a topping pattern in BTCUSD from early 2021. This weekly chart shows the M-top in red. The second high meets the traditional (strict) criteria of a second peak near—but not touching—the upper band. This is soon evident as a price failure. Supplemental Chart A But an M-top reversal pattern may arise even when two actual tags or pierces of the upper band occur, i.e., the second high may tag the band without invalidating the pattern. This is based on the email discussion this author had with the creator of the Bollinger Bands a while back in 2022, recounted at the end of this post. In short, the most important feature of the pattern is price exhaustion and reversal at the second high . In other words, look for failure of the price move at or near band resistance (e.g., a failed breakout). The following technical signals may provide additional confirmation: weakening momentum indicators, including negative divergences in momentum indicators or a lower high on %B indicator which may present as a %B line divergence. W-Bottom Pattern The classic W-bottom reversal pattern forms when two consecutive price lows form a W-shaped price pattern with the first low tagging the lower band and the second low exhausting before tagging the lower band. Supplemental Chart B But note that a W-bottom reversal pattern may arise even when two actual tags or pierces of the lower band occur, i.e., the second low may tag the band without invalidating the pattern. This is based on the email discussion this author had with the creator of the Bollinger Bands a while back in 2022, recounted at the end of this post. In short, the most important feature of the pattern is price exhaustion and reversal at the second low. In other words, look for failure of the price move at band support (e.g., a failed breakdown). The following technical signals may provide additional confirmation: Strengthening momentum indicators, including positive divergences in momentum indicators or a higher low on % B indicator which may present as a %B line divergence. Understanding the Nuances In June 2022, John Bollinger, the creator of the Bollinger Bands, posted a monthly chart of BTC/USD on Twitter. He described the chart as a “picture perfect double (M-type) top in BTCUSD on the monthly chart complete with confirmation” from %B and bandwidth indicators. He noted also that the signal led to a tag of the lower band. Supplemental Chart C is my own attempt to recreate the monthly chart Bollinger had shown to reflect the same two major monthly highs in BTCUSD in early 2021 and then again in late 2021. Please note that Supplemental Chart C shows a different M-top than the one shown on the weekly time frame above on Supplemental Chart A, which only focuses on one of the two peaks analyzed in this monthly chart. Supplemental Chart C This chart that Bollinger originally posted in 2022 showed two actual tags of the upper band. This was not quite technically within the definition of an M-top in much of the technical literature. My previous reading on M-tops and W-bottoms found that all the definitions and examples showed that the second high or low must not touch or tag the relevant band. But this is incorrect to assume that M-tops and W-bottoms are invalid when this technical definition has not been strictly met, i.e., when two (or more) tags of the bands occurred at both price extremes. Responding to Bollinger’s chart of a “perfect M-top pattern,” I messaged John Bollinger, the creator of the bands, directly, hoping for clarification about the strict definition of M-tops and W-bottoms. My question was whether they can be valid while having two actual tags of the bands at both price extremes—two tags at both highs of an M-top and two tags at both lows of a W-bottom. Or were the technical books correct to say that the second peak or low must approach the bands but fail to touch them. In response to my questions, Bollinger clarified that whether a tag occurs at the second peak / high of an M-top is not important as price failure at upper band resistance. This reasoning can be applied in the inverse to W-bottoms as well. In other words, completing the second half of each formation requires a price failure, rather than a band-tag failure, upper band resistance (M-top) or lower band support (W-bottom). So this broadens the scope of what constitutes a valid M-top or W-bottom pattern. But it does not exclude patterns that meet the conventional technical definition. This means that valid M-top and W-bottom patterns include cases where the secondary high / low fails to tag the upper / lower band. Stated differently, failures to tag the bands at a secondary price high / low can also form valid topping and bottoming patterns. Finally, beware of seeking reversals too soon when price is trending strongly, or walking the bands —pullbacks in that specific scenario are not at all "price failures," and it's important to recognize the difference. Conclusion In short, the key is to apply substance over form, to follow the core concept rather than strictly adhering to the technical rules / definitions. Broaden the scope of the technical requirements to include price failures—on the secondary test—at band resistance or support. This will help traders recognize the patterns arising from this technical indicator more effectively. Further, Bollinger himself recommended using other indicators for confirmation, such as RSI or another indicator that isn't overlapping in its operation too much. Lastly, it may be important to realize that the final failure at or near the bands may not be the second peak or low but the fourth, fifth or sixth. Just draw the M at the end where it fits if there has been strength followed by a failure at or near the bands. And remember trading time frame (M-tops and W-bottoms that are valid have much less significance on shorter time frames and much more and lasting significance on longer time frames. And keep risk management on as always. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by SquishTrade
4
USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upThe Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January witnessed a deceleration in Japan's national capital, dropping to 1.6% from the previous reading of 2.4%. This marks the first time in almost two years that consumer inflation has fallen below the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) 2.0% target. Additionally, the Core CPI (YoY) experienced a decline from 3.5% to 3.1%. The Bank of Japan's December meeting minutes shed light on the monetary policy outlook and Yield Curve Control (YCC). Members of the BoJ Board expressed a consensus in favor of "patiently maintaining an easy policy." Several emphasized the need to observe a positive wage inflation cycle before contemplating the cessation of negative rates and YCC. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed a strong commitment to achieving the 2.0% inflation target. His statements hinted at a potential gradual reduction of extensive stimulus measures in the future, aligning with the central bank's objectives for inflation and economic stability. On the flip side, the USD is experiencing a recovery driven by market adjustments in response to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cut expectations. Despite soft Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures from the US in December, which didn't significantly impact market expectations on the upcoming Fed meeting, there is speculation about a delay in the easing cycle from March to May. However, the Fed's tone in the upcoming meeting could alter these expectations. Given these recent developments, how should we navigate the current market conditions? USDJPY Technical Analysis: As discussed in the video, the recent upward momentum is showing signs of easing, leaving room for a possible USD pullback. However, for a confirmed uptrend continuation, we need to see sustained trading above 148.800. Our detailed technical analysis focused on the current bullish market structure, with particular attention to the crucial level of 148.800, set as a pivotal point for the upcoming week. This level gains significance as a potential catalyst for a clear uptrend if buying pressure persists. The market's response to this level at the beginning of the new week will strongly influence the direction of price action in the days ahead. Join me in exploring potential trading opportunities using trendlines, key levels, and chart patterns. Stay connected to my channel, follow updates, and actively participate in the comment section as we navigate the dynamic USDJPY market together. Wishing you success as you navigate the USDJPY market this week! #USDJPY #technicalanalysis #tradingopportunities #inflation #monetarypolicy #Fed #interestrates #economicanalysis #Forextrading Disclaimer Notice: Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances. Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it. Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
by darcsherry
2
XAU/USD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailsOver the past week, the price of Gold has been fluctuating between $2,000 and $2,035. This is because buyers seem to be taking a break, indicating a neutral to bullish outlook on the daily chart. Furthermore, the USD's recovery, driven by market adjustments related to the Federal Reserve and the resilience of the US economy, is putting pressure on the price of Gold. Despite soft Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures from the US in December not causing a significant market reaction, there is anticipation surrounding the Fed's upcoming meeting. Currently, the markets have shifted their expectations for the start of the easing cycle from March to May, but the Fed's stance could alter these expectations. While US economic data remains strong, the Fed could use trends in core PCE to justify implementing rate cuts. The Gold price (XAU/USD) is expected to see changes following the release of the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (PCE) report for December, which indicates a slower pace of price growth than anticipated by market participants. Annual underlying inflation data has slowed to 2.9% from an expected 3% and a previous reading of 3.2%. Fed policymakers are facing a balancing act, considering robust economic indicators such as consumer spending, the labor market, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). These factors could support arguments for higher interest rates in the first half of 2024. Given the uncertainties, how do we plan to strategically position ourselves for the upcoming week? I have a strong sense that we may experience significant market movement in the coming week. XAUUSD Technical Overview: In this video, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the XAUUSD chart, utilizing both technical and fundamental perspectives. Our examination included an in-depth study of key levels, historical price movements, market behaviors, and the interplay between buyers and sellers, aiming to unveil potential trading opportunities. Our focal point for the week is the $2,000 zone, endowed with historical significance, rendering it a pivotal level. The sustainability of bullish momentum above this zone could pave the way for continued buying pressure, potentially propelling prices to new highs. Conversely, a breach below the $2,000 level, coupled with persistent selling pressure, might signal a resurgence of bearish sentiment. Immerse yourself in the latest dynamics of the Gold market! Stay well-informed to make strategic investment decisions. #GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets 📺🔔💼 Disclaimer Notice: Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances. Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it. Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by darcsherry
Pfizer - Watch The SupportHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Pfizer. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: All the way back in 2012 Pfizer created a massively bullish triangle reversal pattern at the $17.00 level. This was followed by a +200% rally. Since 2022 Pfizer has been dropping significantly and is now retesting the support level which I mentioned in the analysis. If we see bullish conformation on the smaller timeframes, this might be an interesting long trading setup. -------- I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied. Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions. Keep your long term vision.
NYSE:PFE
by basictradingtv
7