Reversalsignal
AAPL - Exactly like we prepared for weeks ago, Look out!I did an analysis video 2 weeks ago (video linked below) explaining why price was going to continue to come down and build liquidity before proving sell-side tapering and then activating a strong buying algorithm to start moving up.
That level I identified was $174-175. Today I'm updating you with a new more tapered algorithm that could be in the cards today if we find support there. Look for a potential wick/reach to orange however if we close above and hold this more tapered white/orange algo, it is an extremely bullish sign and we will look for buying continuation yellow or blue to then activate.
Happy Trading :)
usdjpy is throwing bearish reversal signalsThe dollar has been very strong versus the Yen lately. Price has reached yet another high and i believe its like to retrace bearish. The sellers have stepped in a provided some indecision and buy exhaustion. The blue 8 exponential moving average crossed to the dowside below the 21 simple moving average and price began a minor downtrend. This usually occurs before a breakout and upon a retest of that bearish candle that initiated the downward movement.
I'm awaiting a re-test of $13.868- $144.155 so signal if price would like to continue bullish intraday or retrace bearish and sell for lower lows now.
Do you remember Yahoo!? 📈It's been a long time ago, that Yahoo had any value in browsing the internet. I don't think they are really "up to date", but from a pure technical view this long setup could work.
We've established on the weekly timeframe a clear higher low - waiting for the higher high now.
TSLA Looks Exhausted; Flashes a Reversal SignalA few months ago, SquishTrade wrote a bearish technical analysis on TSLA that forecasted a drop to a series of targets that were all reached. TSLA's downward move was more violent and rapid than anyone may have expected. Indeed, TSLA broke down from a huge head-and-shoulders pattern. Supplementary Chart A is the head and shoulders pattern that broke through its neckline in October 2022. It backtested and chopped for a bit, then fell like a stone. What seemed to be a move that would take several months to a year happened in about 2 short months.
Supplementary Chart A
Now, meme mania and the most-shorted stock list has lead the massive rally from October 2022 lows. This list includes stocks like TSLA, and investors filled with fear of missing out on the next massive moon event have piled into this stock. They've been helped by short-covering hedge funds who were like pigs lined up at the feeding trough but gorged a bit too long for their own health.
TSLA now looks exhausted. Note that this does not mean it heads straight back to lows. It could—it already made an unexpectedly massive down move from October to December 2022, and that was after a not so pretty decline in the first half of 2022. Markets and major stocks have been inflicting pain on traders of all stripes this year, so even if TSLA decides to make new lows underneath 2022 lows, it may not do so in an obvious or expected fashion.
Several technical points suggest that price will soon reverse. TSLA's price has likely exhausted this current rally higher. What happens next depends on the broader equity markets' direction, the nature of risk appetite relative to risk-free assets (government bonds such as the 10-year Treasury note, the 30-year Treasury bond, the macro environment (inflation, recession, price of money / interest rates) and TSLA's fundamentals as consumers' spending power likely begins to suffer from the rising price of money.
Note the orange rectangle, which is a major supply and resistance zone. Price has rallied right up to it without consolidating for any significant time beyond a day or two. This major resistance (formerly supply under the concept of parity) coincides with the 50% retracement of the last major wave of decline (green line).
A gravestone doji, evening doji star, shooting star, or spinning top has formed. Each candlestick pattern mentioned could be applied to this (perhaps the spinning top is a stretch). But the label isn't as important as what the implication it provides. It shows indecision right at a time when major resistance has been reached. Indecision is not the kind of state in which price action should be when it approaches such a significant level. But it arrived here too sharply, too fast. So it's exhausted right when it shouldn't be, right when extra momentum and vigor is needed for buyers to push through this level. Note that patterns containing the term "star" are not valid unless a third confirmation candle pushes down into the body of the candle that preceded the star.
A negative divergence appears using the Bollinger Bands. The divergence is more apparent using the %B indicator rather than the Bollinger Bands themselves. This shows that while price has made higher high on February 8-9, 2023, in terms of standard deviation, the high is actually a lower high as shown by the fact that the Bollinger Bands were not pierced by the highs over the last few days. Further explanations appear on Supplementary Chart B below.
Supplementary Chart B
Next, consider price targets, assuming price reverses here or a just bit higher. The most obvious target is the 50% to 61.8% retracement of the current rally. Those Fibonacci levels lie on either side of the huge gap fill area, another obvious target, shown by the magenta rectangle on the Primary Chart. The list of price targets follows:
Target 1: $200 (most conservative)
Target 2: $171.14 (somewhat conservative)
Target 3: $157.91 (moderately aggressive)
Target 4: $144.67 (fairly aggressive)
Target 5: $125.82 (aggressive)
No one can be certain in trading, investing, and forecasting. But traders can be sleuths, examining the charts for bits of evidence to see if they tilt the probabilities in one direction or the other. The probabilities here are tilted lower in the short-term and intermediate term. Yes, price could pull back and then make a higher high after that, or price could pull back and fall to retest / break December 2022 lows. A linear regression channel from the highs suggests that the downtrend could continue this year, but that is not as certain as the likelihood of a near term reversal and decline in price that ends the current rally.
Finally, consider the long-term view. The uptrend remains intact. But don't be deceived by that if you bought at $150-$180 over the last couple weeks and are counting your profits. The uptrend line remains down at $39-$45 depending on the time when it would be tagged (over the remainder of 2023).
Supplementary Chart C
________________________________________
Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
The Three Great Trend Trading CyclesHey Trading family! In this education post I'd like to share with you my observation of the 3 cycles that create the uptrend and downtrend.
First, trend refers to the natural movement of price action. You may know this has highs and lows. I say we dig deeper.
Highs and lows are referred to as the highest price a buyer could buy a currency while a low is the lowest price a buyer could buy a currency. This is on the consumer side.
On the trading side, a high is the highest price you'd sell a currency pair and a low is the lowest price you'd buy the currency pair.
I say we dig deeper here. There are 3 cycles that create the legs of highs and lows of a downtrend.
Cycle 1 - Trend Continuation
In an uptrend you're more than likely to become the buyer. The reason being is because you will likely see when price fluctuates up you will make more money and the move up more visible than the move down.
The flow if price naturally moves up continuing the push up to new highs thus in an uptrend we get higher highs.
In a down trend you'd more likely become the seller The move down is more visible.
The flow if price naturally moves down continuing the push down to new lows thus in a downtrend we get new lower lows.
Cycle 2- Retracement
A retracement is also called the pullback or correction. This is a sign the momentum or strength in the trend continuation movement will relieve itself and pullback.
In an uptrend after a new higher high is formed, price will pullback to form a higher low before continuing back up.You can then become the buyer again.
In a downtrend after a new lower low is formed, price will pullback to form a lower high before continuing back down. You can then become the seller again.
Cycle 3- Reversal
A reversal is the trend switcher. This is not to be confused with the retracement.
Reversals switch the full flow of price. An uptrend becomes the downtrend and a downtrend becomes an uptrend.
How to know when price has reversed?
Easy! It's not a trend line break. It's not a level break!
In an uptrend, when price moves down past the last higher low that was formed, that signals the sellers have come into the market or the base currency has lost value and price will begin decreasing.
In a downtrend, when price moves up past the last lower high that was formed, that signals the buyers have come into the market or the base currency has gained value and price will begin increasing.
Best part to remember is this...
An uptrend or downtrend is only made of the trend continuation and retracement cycle.
You won't see price reverse much on higher timeframes such as the daily, weekly, and monthly. So don't expect to see price reverse every week or month.
Simple right?
Go try this out for yourself. If you have any questions or would like to share helpful value please post it below. 😁
Thanks for reading❤️
How to trade intraday pullbackHello friends,
Market finally picked a direction and it looks like it's gonna continue downtrend. Many novice traders are long biased and they find it very difficult to trade in down-trending market. Today, I am going to share a simple strategy for making quick gains by trading pullback in a downtrend.
Below is a chart of NASDAQ:AMZN in daily timeframe. You can see that price is in a downtrend.
Below is 5 minutes timeframe chart of NASDAQ:AMZN .
You can see that above chart fulfills all the rules mentioned below. For this trade, Risk to Reward ratio is 1:3.
Checklist -
1. Price is making LL while RSI is making HL - Bullish Divergence(highlighted in the chart)
2. RSI is below 30 - Price is oversold
3. Price is showing signs of reversal - Long lower wick candle(highlighted in the chart)
4. Above three confluences occurs during the first 1.5 hours of market open before market goes into mid-day chop
5. Risk to Reward ratio is at least 1:2 (shown in the chart)
Entry -
1. Enter at the next candle open after reversal confirmation
Exit -
1. Set Stop-loss below the recent low
2. Set Target at the first resistance
NZDUSD Potential Bullish Reversal! LONGHello Traders!
The pairs has been in a downtrend for quite a while now and looks oversold to me. Price is now retesting a broken resistance level which can act as Support now. I will be monitoring this pair for a buying opportunity around 0.6700 level with a potential target around 0.7000
I start the day shorting USDCAD 👇👍After a successful long trade the script now says it's time for a short
Entry details are shown on the chart.
We are working the 30M time frame on this strategy.
We're looking for the green line which is take profit target.
Little red arrow is entry point and purple line is stop loss.
Trade has been live since 4:30 UK time.
Trade history can be seen at the foot of this trade idea too for full transparency.
------------------------------------------
I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily.
Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way.
------------------------------------------
Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏
Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌
No one likes missing out, do they?
Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this.
The stats for this pair are shown below too.
Thank you.
Darren
UPWK: Oversold SwingUPWK is rebounding well at the support zone at crucial $40. Its slowly peaking above 50sma on 4 HR chart. It is also up over 4% on the day which is a good sign for the bulls. RSI and MACD are very oversold with showing a good reversal. The next resistances or TP are validating at two moving averages, 50 EMA (at $48) and 200 SMA($45).
GBPNZD long in progress☝️👍Entry details are shown on the chart.
We are working the 2H time frame on this strategy.
We're looking for the green line which is take profit target.
Little blue arrow is entry point and purple line is stop loss.
Chart also shows previous two trades both of them were short trades.
One hit SL and one hit TP, Lets see how this one fairs.
Trade history can be seen at the foot of this trade idea too for full transparency.
------------------------------------------
I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily.
Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way.
------------------------------------------
Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏
Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌
No one likes missing out, do they?
Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this.
The stats for this pair are shown below too.
Thank you.
Darren
GBPCAD short just alerted 🔔📳Entry details are shown on the chart.
We are working the 15M time frame on this strategy.
We're looking for the green line which is take profit target.
Little red arrow is entry point and purple line is stop loss.
Trade history can be seen at the foot of this trade idea too for full transparency.
Previous trade shown on chart which was an long trade that found TP.
The trade before that one was also a long and covered by me in an idea earlier this week that can be found below.
------------------------------------------
I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily.
Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way.
------------------------------------------
Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏
Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌
No one likes missing out, do they?
Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this.
The stats for this pair are shown below too.
Thank you.
Darren
EURNZD long in progress ⬆️👊Entry details are shown on the chart.
We are working the 15M time frame on this strategy.
We're only looking for the green line which is take profit target.
Trade history can be seen below this trade idea too for full transparency.
Previous trades for the week are also shown on the chart.
It has been a busy week so far for this pair.
Four out the last five trades have found their desired TP target with one finding stop loss.
83 pips landed in total so far from this weeks trades and now the sixth trade is up and running.
------------------------------------------
I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily.
Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way.
------------------------------------------
Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏
Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌
No one likes missing out, do they?
Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this.
The stats for this pair are shown below too.
Thank you.
Darren.
DXY at a potential higher low. Now targeting 92 handle?See my previous idea about the dollar index. Ha went on to forge this nice bull trend from the bottom and currently bouncing off of support level at 90.00 - 90.10 which seems like a good context for a higher low and maybe a bull leg targeting a measured move above 92.00.
Basic premise here is that this is a simple 1-2-3 wave that often marks the start of a bigger trend. Will this start a long-term bull run? Can't say or certain but let' see if the market rallies to the 92.00 levels. We may get more info about the long term plans if and and when that happens.
Found some support, but growth uncertainLooks like Elon up to his antics again.
Some Fast buying around low 5 cents to keep price action up.
However there does not see to be enough follow up to create more momentum. The volume from the spikes is good, but that only indicates a larger one time buy, and lacks the consistent buying and increasing volume we need.
We were still unable to break through the higher blue line. If we want to show strength, price needs to break through the blue line, draw back and bounce off to go to newer highs, with volume increasing.
Hope we can break through and stay above.
EURGBP 4H Long - E0.8877; SL0.8812; TP0.9149; RR4.17FX:EURGBP seems to be leaving the bearish channel. We can see multiple signals that confirm there's a possible trend reversal coming up, leaning to bullish:
Strong signals
1. The chart retested the strong support area around 0.8866
2. There's two higher lows (HL) a third one would me the confirmation even stronger
Weak signals
3. The chart is grinding the lower band which could mean an upward move is imminent
4. MACD shows that K% is nearing D% which could mean a trend reversal leaning to bullish
5. Stochastic RSI shows price was oversold recently
Trade setup
Entry: 0.8877
Stop loss: 0.8812
Take profit: 0.9149
Risk reward ratio: 4.17
Waiting for reversal. Daily supply demand analysis. hi this is my daily supply and demand analysis.
I'll now move on to planning my trade(s) for the week. Once I'm done analyzing the weekly and daily charts.
I'm mostly bearish since the insane levels of bearish divergence (purple line on chart) I keep observing on those but Monday tends to be extreme and I never short on Tuesday.
My Current Trading Strategy for $SIRI Check out this nice pattern I'm seeing on the price and RSI chart dailys of NASDAQ:SIRI
Pretty simple just buy at the bottom and sell at the top and use the RSI to check for any breakouts and to confirm the reversals. Did this for the last oscillation and hope to use it though 1-2 more oscillations. (ie. the the patter will hold for a few more weeks) Looks like a good buy opportunity coming up!
**Very new to this, would appreciate any constructive criticism or alternate viewpoints.**