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Reversalzone

GBPUSD: Price Pushing Into Key Resistance With No Bearish Signs.GBPUSD: Price is now pushing into the extreme zone which has a defined upper resistance boundary of 1.4423. Price is also sitting just above the 1.4345 high that was established back in January. The probability of a bearish reversal is high, BUT until there is confirmation, the bullish momentum can continue to drive price higher. Keep in mind, if price is going to reject a resistance level, it usually happens fast. As long as price lingers in this area, or slowly grinds higher, that is a sign of strength. I do not buy highs, I look to sell them, but only under very specific conditions. If the market cannot produce the criteria that I am looking for when it comes to initiating a swing trade short, then I avoid completely. Buying a breakout here is high risk in my opinion. If I am going to capitalize on the long side, I prefer to take risk at more attractive prices. In this case, I am watching the 1.4115 to 1.4054 area (.618 relative to recent bullish swing) which is a minor support. Otherwise my position is neutral which means I have no position. Make sure to check out S.C. for updates, because if a swing trade short setup develops, that is where the details will be.
by MarcPMarkets
1
ETHUSD: Ugly Markets Very Attractive For Buyers?ETHUSD update: New low made at 448 as price pushes into the next reversal zone and hesitates. New lows are a bearish sign, especially when they are occurring below the major support zone. Is this a signal to get short? To exit altogether? No, as ugly as these markets get, it is important to recognize that they are still in an expanding ecosystem. Remember I am only interested in these markets from a bigger picture perspective. I believe in the technology that is behind these tokens, especially the main ones like BTC, this market and LTC. These are not markets I am interested in shorting, even if I could. If I want to short something, there are other markets that are much more liquid and much easier to access than these markets (Like FX or mini S&P futures). On top of that, if I had easy access and liquidity in these markets, (meaning I do not have to worry about the broker telling me they can't let me cover when I am trying to get out) I would on participate on a day trading time frame because I do not want to stay short a market that is on its lows (especially when its pushing extreme reversal zones). With that being said, there is a reversal zone boundary at 424 which is relative to the 452 low. This means IF price is going to reverse, it needs to do it within this area. IF instead it closes lower with conviction, then I would simply steer clear of any new positions until stability reappears in these markets. What does stability look like? For one, the two bearish trend lines that are in play need to be compromised. Then price action would then have to build a more bullish structure such as a broad higher low or double bottom which would express more of a longer term sign of strength returning. Until those scenarios happen, I would suggest staying out completely, accumulating small size on the lows, or if you are managing a long position, just ride it out. In summary, the current situation reminds me of the way this market was at the highs. The world was euphoric and expecting price to go up forever, now we are in the opposite situation. These markets are full of fear, and it is no surprise that is happening after more institutional players got involved back in December. As long as there is a growing ecosystem and these tokens maintain their usability and relevance, new low situations like this only present very attractive prices to build inventory. I do not care what the news is saying, or the hype, because that information is only being generated to capitalize on the fear. I also want to capitalize on the fear and the way to do it is to buy small and build your inventory while the herd either exits, shorts it or loses interest altogether. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
23
DNT/BTC - Keeping an eye on this for a potential breakoutDNT/BTC has been in a steep bear trend for the better part of 2 months, but there's signs that bullish strength is beginning to build in the market. First up, this is a long-shot. So I'm not making ANY buy recommendations yet. I won't even entertain that until we get a solid daily candle that closes above the bear trend line (something that hasn't happened despite multiple attempts). This idea is basically a "keep an eye on it" thing. So, VZO is showing solid and sustained bullish build up on all charts. Most encouragingly, it's reflecting on the D1 chart and has been for 2 weeks. Sustained build ups of bullish volume while price is dropping is a classic breakout signal. We're also seeing price enter the first true area of volume support, that began with a small consolidation/pullback area after the initial rise in Dec. However, the bear trend is incredibly strong, and so we have to add a huge dose of cynicism to any signals we see. Still, I think that barring a BTC collapse (which impacts the whole market), DNT will break the bear trend at some point in the coming few weeks. That level of volume build up can't stay contained for long. The caveat is that if, for some reason, all of that bullish behavior exits the market, then price will collapse. Which is why it's so important to wait for a proper confirmation that the trend has been broken. I'll keep this updated over the coming few weeks. Cheers and good luck, RJR
DLong
by DreamsDefined
4
BTCUSD: Strong Close Can Lead To 14K Push?BTCUSD update: Higher high takes out bearish trend line as anticipated. With the 9890 to 10836 minor resistance cleared and bullish trend line still intact, the next resistance area that I am looking for is the 13012 to 14889 zone. At the same time, I am still open to locking in 15% of my position if price action presents a reversal signal in the current price location. For those who have been following this position trade, my average price is 10020. The swing trade call that I made at 8854 paid an 1800 point profit (if you sold at 10500) and IF you held onto some as I suggested, you are riding a winner. The main premise behind the position trade was the magnitude of the support zone that the market reacted to which was the 8171 to 4983 area (.618 relative to entire bullish structure). And consistent with this premise, price has cleared the minor resistance zone of 9890 to 10836 (.618 area of recent bearish structure). The next area to consider is the 13012 to 14889 resistance zone (.618 relative to entire bearish structure). The bearish trend line break around the 11400 area is a significant bullish sign. It serves as evidence that the bearish momentum that took this market to 6K is no longer in effect. This does not mean the market won't retrace though. In this scenario, I would expect support levels to offer a better chance of holding, rather than this market testing new lows. Keep in mind, price has not cleared a small reversal zone that is just above the most recent minor peak. IF a bearish candle formation appears at the current level, that would signal a failed high and more than likely lead to a retrace. On the other hand if there is a strong close, then it is reasonable to expect bullish momentum to carry price into the higher resistance zone over the next few days. In the failed high situation, I am looking to sell 15% of my position, otherwise I am holding for the 13 to 14Ks. Letting a winner run is a best practice and requires the flexibility to adjust if the market presents a less favorable sign. Part of my plan was to see how price behaves on the break of the trend line. Any trouble, I will lock in some profit and reduce risk, otherwise hold. I may not be able to update this post with timely order information so it is not wise to depend on me for these types of decisions. I am telling you my plan, and you must have the ability to make the judgement on your own whether to lock in or hold. In summary, one of the best lessons you can take away from this trade is this: To benefit from a broader move, you must be able to see the opportunity before it becomes obvious to the herd. If you find yourself confused because of conflicting information the whole way up, it is because you lack your own perspective and are missing a process to evaluate market information effectively. This will especially be the case if you are a hyper consumer of internet news which only serves to benefit marketers. All financial markets, especially this one, are environments that flow with uncertainty at all times. Price action can help us get a sense of how the crowd is likely to react, but the key to benefiting from this type of evaluation is also having the mental flexibility to adjust if your scenario is negated. There is no certainty, only probability. Our goal is to find ways to stack probabilities in our favor enough to justify taking the risk and usually when these opportunities are present, they are not obvious. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
30
BTCUSD: Bears Lack Conviction. Support Zone Still In Play?BTCUSD update: Price pushes into middle of broader support zone and is held up at the 9683 reversal zone boundary. In situations like this, recognizing the magnitude of the larger time frame levels allows for more effective decision making. Small time frames look bearish. The move off of the minor resistance zone (11871 to 12316) looks dramatic compared to recent price action. Meanwhile price is not really going anywhere significant. For 15 days, this market has made little progress in either direction but gives the illusion that it is. Welcome to a more balanced market. This price action is for the realm of the day trader. Small movements, reversals at minor levels and no big picture progress. In order to capitalize effectively on this price action, a great deal of skill is required. I am not day trading these markets, and I refuse to trade them of margin which means I cannot short them. So I base my perspective on the big picture and look to position myself to capitalize on the broader bullish move IF it returns. Here is what I see: Price is gyrating between 10988 and 8656 (.618 area of broader bullish structure). It is also staying above the 9683 reversal zone boundary. In addition to that, based on the recent swing low established at 9989, there is now another reversal zone boundary at 9295. Within this area there are also a series of bullish pin bars that also happen to be within a minor support zone 10534 to 9989 (.618 area of recent bullish swing). As bearish as the most recent swing looks, (especially on smaller time frames) until price can work its way below all of this supportive structure, I am staying long and only looking to add. Do not get your perspectives mixed up. I keep getting messages from people asking me why I am bullish when this market is so bearish. The time frames that look so bearish (1 hour or lower) do not carry much weight for my trading time horizon. I am looking for the broader move, and based on the current price action, we are just testing lows of a large magnitude support. Do not over react to dramatic movements often accompanied by extreme hype. Zoom out and start asking questions like: Is price breaking major supports? Is it making new lows with conviction? And most important: Have any major long term fundamentals changed? If the answer is no, like in this case in my opinion, then it becomes easier to see how these lows are a welcome buying opportunity for longer time horizon strategies like swing and position trades. In summary, before making judgements or decisions, you must first have a point of reference. For me, I am staying focused on the big picture because that is the time horizon I am positioned on. Having this perspective allows me to see through the immediate noise that many get caught up in. At this point, I am waiting for candlestick reversal formations or price patterns to develop in this area in order for me to buy more. IF the market keeps selling (below 8656) then I will not take any action and hold what I have. The only reason why this works is because I am not using margin and my sizing is carefully calculated. Like I have written in previous reports, it is just a matter of bullish catalysts taking hold and driving the next leg. See beyond the herd, do not be part of it. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
70
Almost at topBTCUSDT is forming another bearish divergence with price/RSI as it approaches 7k. Historically, these divergences have led to corrections; if this divergence completely forms, it could start another one here. If it drops before 7k and breaks below this wave's uptrend, I'm thinking it will most likely form another Elliott 3-3-5 flat with extended wave C as it's done in the past. I drew a rough "ABC" correction wave for projection. If uptrend is broken, I consider that a bearish confirmation. My target for re-entry will be around 5.5k with 4.5k as the lowest.
Short
by AngryBoris
Bulls Waking Up SoonLTCUSDT has seen a very healthy correction thus far (along with all other top crypto). Lets see if this is the bottom or not. I've since changed my position from a 5-3-5 zig zag correction to a 3-3-5 regular flat. A few weeks ago I missed the top estimate, but nailed the severity of the correction (I think). This seems to confirm to me that LTCUSDT and LTCUSD has seen a complete overall cycle wave 1. This correction end point will mark the end of wave 2. First indication: The current price is jostling directly on the overall cycle .5 re-trace. Very popular reversal for wave 2. Second indication: It is riding its lifetime uptrend. While I expect a breach of this uptrend before beginning wave 3 to create a new uptrend, I still think this is a very good indication for at least an end to correction wave A as it presents a psychological border. Third indication: 1HR RSI shows large bullish divergence while 4HR RSI shows oversold breach. Fourth indication: Take a look at the -/+ volume in this triangle forming as compared to the last week. Traders are getting restless. I see three possibilities from this point: 1) Optimistic in Green - Begin overall cycle impulse wave 3 to 120s. 2) Realistic in blue - Begin correction wave B of overall cycle wave 2 to 70-85 region before beginning wave C down. I see this as the most likely due to the short time this correction has been running if it is truly a correction to overall cycle impulse wave 1. 3) Pessimistic in red - Charlie Lee is the devil and wants to watch the world burn with extensions of current down. Stop set to 40.5 in the event of scenario 3. Keep an eye on BTC as it's the one that seems to drive the crypto world. Let me know if you agree or not. I welcome your constructive criticism.
Long
by AngryBoris
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Watching For Reversals.ETHUSD Update: The 320 break signals the return of bearish momentum and confirms the lower high formation as I described in my previous report. ETHBTC also offered a heads up with it's resistance failure that I mentioned as well. The question now is can this market find support at the projected levels and form a broader higher low? Compared to my average number of views, my previous report was way below but for those of you who took the time to read it, it described what is happening now. 309 was the first support level to watch for stability, and price fell through like it wasn't even there. And this is exactly why I do not place buy orders at levels, because they are random until the market proves that there is a reason to buy there. The validation section of my trading plan is what helps me filter out this type of situation. The next area is the 296 support which which is more in play at the moment. As I have written about previously this is the .382 of the entire bullish swing and since it is a proportion of such a large price move, price action around this level will be very noisy just like it was the first time it tested this area (and went below 270). And that adds some weight to the 292 to 281 support zone which is related to the .618 of the recent minor bullish swing. Just below that is the 260 support that I explained previously also. The recent 4 hour candle is large and even though there is some retrace (wick) I will take that as a clue that this market is more likely to test the lower supports. Large candles are a sign of strong momentum so it is reasonable to expect the next few sessions to be bearish at least (unless there is a dramatic recovery during the next candle). Other factors that support this bearish argument are the lower high confirmation at 340, AND the failed high on the ETHBTC chart. As I also mentioned in my previous report, in order for me to buy, I need to see a failed low, or higher low and it would be helpful if the market offered that structure at one of the projected support levels. IF the market can stabilize in the 292 to 281 zone, then that would signal more of a range bound situation. If I can get long somewhere in the lower part of the range, I will be targeting the 325 area at least initially. In particular I will be watching the price action for a higher low or double bottom on a smaller time frame and will be considering the mid 250s for stop placement. Price structures of this kind will negate the bearish momentum that is present at the moment. Otherwise I stay out. I do not know if any relevant news came out, and the reason why I don't check or write about news is because price tells me everything I need to know. Price action made me very cautious about the previous up move and I reiterated it over and over. If the market wants to sell, it will sell. And again this price action was setting up before any news. News only serves as a catalyst and helps the market move in the direction of it's intention faster. One of the basic foundations of technical analysis is that the market discounts everything and that includes news. In summary, the bearish momentum that was building up in the price action played out to a point. The confirmed lower high opens the possibility of testing the lower support levels that I wrote about previously. Keep in mind, the overall trend is still bullish, this market is just going through a normal correction and upon stabilization will offer another buying opportunity at attractive reward to risk ratios. Remember that the support levels are proportionate to the swings that they measure, and they provide reference points to evaluate for particular price action (like a double bottom). They are not buy prices to just set orders for. The best thing you can learn from my analysis is how to anticipate instead of react, because without that ability, you will always be chasing. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
27
AUDNZD BEARISH PROJECT - 2 in 1Greetings, Everyone! Major red bearish Wolfe wave was formed by the FX:AUDNZD pair. It is being supported by RSI divergence as well as the formation of minor orange pattern inside its internal structure. The closer look at orange WW reveals that it is also being backed by RSI divergence. Significant volume rise at point 5 confirms the importance of this area and indicates either continuation or possible reversal of the current trend: Interestingly, the planned TPs of both waves also lay at one straight line (from point V to point VI). 6 lots opened at 1.0837 SL 1.09459 TP1/2 1.06510/1.03602
Short
by OceanBlue