Brent Crude: UKOIL Last long shot,ready to reverse here if wrongBrent Crude Oil UKOIL Last long shot with tight stops ready to reverse here if wrong
Right on key support at 62.18 with a low at 62.14. If this fails
here the entire wave from the lows is exhausted. At this
point, if seen, we switch from buying dips to selling rallies - it
will fall away to 61.15, bounce some and then likely fall away
to 59.44 and potentially much lower still.
This is the 4th strike on this parallel. Normally 4th strikes are
good with the parallel only usually losing its power on the 5th.
This means that Brent is a speccy buy here with stops under
62.10 for small 8 pip loss if wrong from here. And if we are,
then that lower parallel gives way and we then switch on a
sixpence to bear stance from bull, looking to sell off the
underside of the parallel if touched again with stops above
by 10 to 15 pips max.
Reverse
Brent Crude: UKOIL Time to close out longs and consider shortsBRENT CRUDE: UKOIL
Have closed out the long position finally as Brent touched the
upper parallel. It's the fourth strike and should come back
from here. Closed at 64.33 for 1833 pips profit on a trade that
carried 30 pips of risk from the outset, taking under 6 weeks
to achieve. Best win of year (apart from Bitcoin, obviously)
Wondering about shorting here, think it's the right thing to do
with stop above 64.70 in case Opec deliver a surprise for
once. It certainly was last time we tried it. If they do, Brent
could rally just above the high today, take out stops nearby
and then have a problem again...need to be careful, therefore.
But usually it pays to sell before the news...
Bicoin: BTCUSD Reverse head and shoulders now clearerBitcoin Update
The reverse head and shoulders pattern is clearer now..
Right on the breaking point now and therefore vulerable to a
failure here...but it looks good so far...
Because the H and S pattern is clearer it also gives a clearer
measurement target on the upside once 7425 is beaten: 77333
is the minimum measurement implication of this break, if and
when it occurs so it should be worth following.
It would be helpful if it came back to 7350 (if 7350 gives way
at any point it could spike down to 7290 -7280 at absolute
worst so we have be wary with stops, not to get taken out of
a good position on a spike - the worst feeling in world, being
right, but still losing money...that is the worst kind of pain,
the worst kind of loss. Better to be outright wrong!)
Still a battle going on at the neckline now ...if it now breaks
higher from here, obviously that shows real strength
again...follow it. Otherwise we wait and see if we can get in
from lower down at 7350, maybe even 7300 on a spike (put in
order in and see if it gets hit...this is what causes those pin
bars!!!) - but we'l have to leave the stop below 7250 to begin
with if struck to avoid getting hit.
Otherwise we trade breakout on upside when it comes. Good
luck and be careful with stops!
GBPUSD: Upside target achieved for 140 pip win. Time to reverseGBPUSD Tuesday Update
Sterling has rallied to the centre of the near term upside
target which was 10 pips either side of 1.327 after an intraday
high in London at 1.3222 for a 140 pip win.
Longs should have been closed out and the entire position
reversed into EUR shorts with stops just 15 pips above today's
high for a small loss if wrong, as per comment below.
GBPUSD hits top of daily channel, waiting for bearish setupThis is an update to my GBPUSD analysis I talked about last week.
GBPUSD has hit top of daily channel with excessive volume(See daily chart).
This likely suggests that buyers could have cashed out since price has not moved up for the past 2 days.
I see this formation as being weak and I will be looking for short opportunities above 1.3570.
What I will look out for?
1. Weak break out above last week high on LOW volume
2. Mid to high volume bar, high spread closing on the lows.
3. Will enter upon completion of 2)
4. Will target low of channel as profit target, risking about 100 pips to make about 500 pips.
Will keep you guys posted.
SGDHKD Short OpportunityOur alert on this pair went off today and presents a nice short opportunity! We always want to first make sure that the position we are taking is not highly correlated with our other positions. Once all of that checks out, we should be good to execute. In this case we have a nice 4 to 1 risk reward setup. We want to set a limit order near resistance and wait for price to hit our order. Hopefully we get filled. I will update when/if we get a fill. Remember, keep your positions size and risk within your personal risk tolerance parameters. I recommend no more than 1 or 2% risk per trade. Happy trading!
Trade Parameters:
Sell Limit: 5.80310
SL: 5.90060
TP: 5.39990
Clarifying Trend Channels ChartThis is a revised chart from a previous post. NEO -0.97% appears to have bounced off the trend line of a lower uptrend line. Price still within local -1.93% down channel but I believe this past downward movement to simply to be a market correction. This coin has great potential. I predict the price to adopt the less steep and more sustainable trend of the upward channel with the bold line.
SPX Ready For A RallyThe SPX is on the verge of a rally inside of the consolidation mode it has been in since the beginning of June. Reversal signals at the bottom of support is a good sign that things are about the change. Only thing left is to wait and see. An attempt to reach the resistance in the chart below is looking very likely. Don't be surprised it market does go up. The signs are there already. Just make sure you know the difference between good reversal signals and bad reversal signals.
High Probability LONG until top trendline, before massive SHORTBased on the current Daily chart/pattern, there is a possibility to enter a LONG until the top of the channel trendline, before a substantial SHORT to the bottom of the triangle's channel trendline.
IF the bottom trendline is broken, after consolidation and crossing the Blueberry EMA, we should be able to have confirmation of a significant Impulse wave downwards for a full bearish trend, which could confirm hard times ahead for the IHG (Intercontinental Hotels Group).
TDI seems to suggest a LONG is still valid until the overbought position is reached which should then signal a great SHORT entry at least to the bottom of the channel trendline/Blueberry EMA.
Once we reach the Blueberry EMA, price action and structure should provide more information before a decision to exit the trade or continue SHORT for an Impulse.
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DISCLAIMER: This chart is for sharing and educational purposes only and is not intended to be a signal service or similar.
This chart analysis is only provided as my own opinion, based on my own analysis and comes with absolutely no warranty that this analysis is correct, whatsoever. Do not trade this chart if you do not have your own strategy. Trade only with your own strategy at your own risk.
Plan your trade and trade your plan... and IF in doubt, stay out.
.....::::: If you like this chart, please click on the THUMBS UP ! :::::.....
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4/ Computer Tree Inc.
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DAX Channeling - Easter present?The DAX has been channeling in a 400 pip wide band for the past 2 months. To make matters interesting, the highest high ever of the DAX has already been approached, already bouncing back just 15 pips away from it!
So the question arises: will the DAX break through the channel or not?
If the DAX REMAINS in the channel (as I am hoping), then the following targets and stop-loss arise:
Target 1 at Fibonacci Retracement Level 61.80%: 12,201.5 (+107.5 pips)
Target 2 at Fibonacci Retracement Level 38.20%: 12,267.8 (+173.7 pips)
Target 3 at Fibonacci Retracement Level 0.00%: 12,375.2 (+281.1 pips)
Super Conservative Stop-Loss at Fibonacci Extension Level 138.20%: 11986.7 (-107.4 pips)
Normal Stop-Loss: 11,230.0 (-64.1 pips)
Super Conservative Risk-Reward Ratio of 1:2.6 at Target 3.
Normal Risk-Reward Ratio of 1:4.4 at Target 3.
I suspect there to be strong resistance at the highest high ever (12,390.75).
I will enter a long trade if the DAX bounces off the lower channel boundary and rises nicely.
If it continues channeling, I believe Target 1 will be met after maximum 5 full days, Target 2 after max. 9 full days and Target 3 after max. 12 full days after the bounce.
What do you think?
Further thoughts:
I like how the first border-to-border move's Fibonacci extension level of 161.80% at the beginning of the channel matches almost perfectly with the second border-to-border move's 100% level.
That same first border-to-border's move's 112.7% level matches the next top-border bounce perfectly .
$AEPP Huge R/M Play Ready for the Next Leg upLittle to say other than this is about to explode on a breakout pennant in anticipation of the R/M 8K
GBP/EUR Short at Channel ResistanceWe are approaching the top of an upward channel, this key area of resistance is a good area for a sell opportunity. This is supported by divergence, that suggests that the next peak will be lower than the last - which would fall at the top of the trend line. Before placing a trade wait until the candle closes, if the candle closes outside of the trend line the set up is invalid. Finally, this upward trend has a bias to break to the upside, so this opportunity needs to be considered thoroughly.