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Review

Double Bottom Reversal on 20 Yr Treasury BondAfter almost a year since I published this short idea for TLT. The first bounce this summer was quickly snuffed out by the uber hawkish Jackson Hole speech from Jerome Powell when he told the world there was more blood to come. A lot of bulls and bears have been hung out to dry over this year long bear market. I don't know what every one was smoking this summer thinking Crypto was going to save them from the most difficult bear market since 2008. A year long bear market that was testing just how much banks learned from the 2008 housing crisis. Did Jerome Powell actually stave off a global financial crisis. The 10Yr yield is rolling over after pointing to 2008 levels. I'm not convinced the worst selling is over, but the next month up to Christmas is a seasonly strong period. Short term volatility may be in for a post thanksgiving pop like last year, but continues to compress into winter regardless of the bad news. The S&P should be testing the 200D moving average around the time the next CPI prints in Dec. While Volatility lets out the last of the bear market volatility. Skew is not. This should concern anyone with financial assets. Lots of charting ideas coming this Christmas. * IchanOt believe what I heard today. * Santa Clause Rally predictions. * Breaking down what inflation will do next. * Is reading Gamma a reliable indicator. In the mean time, have a great Thanksgiving. If you don't live in Ukraine you have a lot to be thankful for. Peace and Prosperity are far greater than the Put.
NASDAQ:TLT
by SPYvsGME
1
EUR/GBP: ReviewIn this review from November 9 2022, Euro/Sterling Pound was a perfect analysis that I found out when I made this analysis in the past 2 weeks and I was lead by fundamental news that Euro was bullish by fundamental news that I will show you here to recall why Euro was bullish. Fundamental News to recall it: 1) Euro and Sterling Pound rose against he safe haven dollar on November, 7, 2022, supported by a risk on sentiment across market as investors digested positive eurozone data and looked to cash in on the strength of the US Dollar 2) A survey showed on November, 7, 2022 that investors morale in the euro zone improved in November, and reflecting hopes that recent warmer temperatures and falling energy prices will prevent as rationing on the continent this winter 3) Germany should hike taxes on rich to finance relief packages, adviser say-report 4) Germany's economic council less pessimistic than government on looming recession-source 5) German economic will not face as severe recession next year appointment optimistic economic policy that growth 1.7% compared 1.4% based on unexpected third-quarter growth despite inflation and energy supply concerns. 6) Inflation expected to hit 8% this year, but advisers said that inflation's effect on consumer's purchasing power what exceptionally strong price increase are on the way in 2023, a reason for the looming recession. 7) A German newspaper reported that the advisers will recommend the government raise taxes on the wealthy to help finance the multi-billion-euro relief packages it has agreed to fight the energy crisis. 8) Uk Businesses fear gloomy Christmas as cost of living soars. 9) Dollar slips as German bund yields strengthen Euro 10) Marc Chandler (chief market speculation at Bannockburn Global Forex) told in November, 9, 2022 that a steady climb in German bond yields weakened the Dollar on expectations of further European Central Bank tightening, which cut the spread with Treasury yields. 11) Marc Chandler believe that European Central Bank it's about more aggressiveness than Federal Reserve do, focusing in the movement in two year German bunds. He believe that it's not much difference that monetary and fiscal policy it's playing down in the U.S. election than European Central Bank trying to tightening the European monetary policy and tightening in Euro currency. 12) Germany must ask high earners to help with energy relief-economic council 13) A panel of economic advisers said that Germany must tighten its energy-relief measures in the face of soaring inflation, ensuring only households and businesses that need help are on the receiving end while asking high earners. 14) Monica Schitzer (Economist advisers) said that she look an expectations that Germany's pointing out high earners that benefit from a fuel tax cut and a planned gas price brake. She added at a news conference that "increases government debt will likely more than necessary as well as stoking inflation 15) Christian Lindner (First Ministry German Finance) said that government would carefully to examine the panel's report, but he rejected calls for higher taxes. 16) Germany to examine revised European Union debt rules closely 17) Germany welcomes the fact that the European Commission has proposd its changes to EU fiscal rules on debt. 18) ECB Nagel calls for letting long-term rates rise too. 19) European Central Bank should led long-term borrowing costs rise too, as it increases short-term interest rates to fight runaway prices in the euro zone. 20) ECB has been raising its policy rates at record speed but it is still buying bond to replenish portfolio, which has a dampening impact on long-term bond yields. So, fundamentally Euro was in the morale up and optimistic by fundamental news that every news may to support Euro/Pound into a long term to plan to bought bonds yields. That it's a key fact that Euro can to change the trend in medium term as a signal. So, this was a perfect trade without observations as I'm very lead by fundamental news. So, in this trade from past 2 weeks. I got 8.96% in profit that I end this in the past 2 weeks. But was a perfect trade that I found out.
Long
by harisonhbn9718
GBP/CAD: Review!!!What I think about this analysis, was very well. Now, as this analysis that I bought was in the smart zone, I see that was a very good analsis buying GBP/CAD in $1.5892 CAD. That I remember that I made this analysis in H4 timeframe. But I thinking that GBP/CAD forming a bullish channel that right now, we can to see any sell from this point like $1.60 CAD to take in note. And also, in Daily timeframe we're forming this bullish channel, but I want to share my perspective point that GBP/CAD it's ready to down, and we can to udpate this line to monitoring the exact point what GBP/CAD will stop this buy off. As I closed up manually in this trade from Friday that I got 7.04% earned!!! So this trade was very well!!! But this trade look interesting to short!!! Now as I look in H1 timeframe we can to forming a market trap in H1 timeframe that we can to see a market trap. but some carefully in the next week, as I'm interesting to short Now, calculating what I hold up in month ROI that I have 16.57% and plus 7.04%. So I got 23.61% in ROI. This mean that I overpass 20% monthly ROI. So, this week as I have EUR/USD and USD/CAD to review a little more, we can to work this analysis to become more patience when I knew that I was a clear perspective. with the same of GBP/CAD that I see a possible short position in GBP/CAD for the next week. Good Day!!!! So guys, talking about review, every review of my analysis it's show me some things that I can to improve by my evaluation that I do in my trades by real account to test my skills in trading. During this year, I work too much in Forex market the style how I analyze each par. Reviews will help you to get an evaluation to measure your progress in your Day Trading. Apart of cryptocurrencies, as I like more to make a swing trading and position trading to hold those position by long term. For tomorrow, I will make the last EUR/GBP analysis of the past week to know my review and how I did it this trade.
Long
by harisonhbn9718
1
EURUSD: Review!!!So, as I trade this par, doesn't move much, but we see an interesting data that maybe EUR/USD it's in the distribution zone to sell and the movement it's preparing this consolidation to drop. But well, I'm not bullish, I'm still bearish as I made analysis on this week, as I closed up this short position that I got 1.44% earned in this trade. And before of this 3rd trad, I got in two trades 6.89% loss. But as least as I make a small recover of 1.44% earned. So, I reduce my loss in 5.45%. But this trade was very similar like USD/CAD when I made a review yesterday, I will share the some fell point that I found out into my trading experience. Now, as I hold up 22.02% in this month, so I will discount 5.45% in the monthly ROI that I have in my hand. that my result still hold up 16.57% So, first to talk about this trade. When it's suppose that hit my Stop Loss in my first trade, I can to prevent to enter in my 2nd trade and don't trade until analyze very well the analysis as I enter 2 times and those 2 times hitting my Stop Loss and suppose that if I made an analysis in my first trade as my second trade, it's better to wait that this analysis develop their price action until I catch the smart entry. As i my first trade that I enter around $1.0321 USD and hit my Stop Loss in $1.0384 USD This it's the screenshot in H1 timeframe, also, I can to entry to long until $1.0420 USD and I would gotten like 100 pips. But I can't to entry against the trend when we see in H1 still bullish, but in H4 spoke bearish and weak into the trend. But now, there're will be a lot option, entry to long as my first option or waiting that price action develop and then entry in the smart point to short position if I knew that EUR/USD it's bearish in this point. And in my second trade that I enter around almost $1.04 USD and put the Stop Loss n $1.0450 USD and then hit again my Stop Loss. What I most found out in this trade it's be a little more patience when it's talking about the market reverse with some observations that I made in USD/CAD. Also, when talking about when I knew for EUR/USD as USD/CAD that the market will move to the reverse, it's better to wait the formation of price action and be pending of all economic calendar that can to make soundless the movement. Now, as I see that EUR/USD still bearish, we can to entry in this week and make an analysis to know where to entry in the smart point to short again This it's all my review here!!! Also ,I share my new Daily outlook that I made!!! So guys, in few words the only to work a little more analysis that it's about a market reversal it's being a little more patience to catch the smart point and draw the smart point in timeframes to get an excellent analysis and impeccable.
Short
by harisonhbn9718
1
USD/CAD: Review!!!U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar was a good trade that at least for me I catch the target profit fix in $1.3400 CAD exacly. What I was in 2 trades to long position when I knew very good that USD/CAD climbed. And also ,I had a loss of -3.58% in my first trade that I enter and hit my Stop Loss very bad, also I put all my update and analysis of USD/CAD in this week. But my last 2 trades I had a earn of 15.52%, what I recover part of my loss and also my extra earns that only my real earned was 11.95%. But I want to share you some observations that I note that I can to work my technical analysis better, when I knew that USD/CAD climbed the price and my perspective was excellent, but I can to work a little more my analysis to share my observations here Everything it's explain in this screenshot!!! So, my analysis in H1 timeframe look good, but I can to work a little more as I explain in the above of this screenshot to improve my entry in the smart point to be my entry a little more precise when I'm very sure that USD climbed. And my Daily analysis, as I predicted very well, pass. In summary, I would have a precise entry if I only draw in H4 timeframe the smart point and also put my buy order limit around 1.3450 CAD and also a little more patience. This it's the major observations that I note to work my analysis like this when it's about a market reversal. The key it's being a little more patience when I knew that my perspective was excellent, and could be perfect, but was almost perfect, the only to know it's study this observations to the next analysis like this. So, as i got 11.95% earned. i will need tu sum with my anothers analysis in EUR/USD and GBP/CAD to get my real results. At the moment, I hold 10.07% in this month and sum it 11.95%. So, I get 22.02% for now. But only one moment because as I had 2 fell trades in EUR/USD and 1 trade with a small eanr, I will need to calculate it very well with GBP/CAD whtat was a partial earns that I decide today to closed up this long position with profits. And also a review of EUR/GBP of the past week analysis that I need to make a review too. So guys, if you like the review111 Notice that every week I will make review to evaluate my trades specially in Forex market.
Long
by harisonhbn9718
EUR/CAD: Review!!!Euro/Canadian Dollar was a pretty well analysis. The first thing it's that my analysis was almost perfect and the second thing it's that my perspective that Euro gotten bullish. So, but there's a point that I will need to request to improve a little more my skills when I knew very good that Euro was bullish by fundamental analysis that I read in the past week a lot. The only to improve it's when Euro it's like very bullish by fundamental news that we see in the past week, it's like a diamond opportunity that we can to get benefit in the movement, but as I closed in $1.3576 CAD and don't hold this position toward my fix target to $1.3656 CAD. I would gotten 153 pips approx. But in this trade I got 72 pips. what represent 3.92% in profit in this trade. So, as I hold 1.13% in loss and then rest it with 3.92% (profit). It's mean that I hold 2.80% in earnings in this month for now!!! That was a very good analysis, if I only I must to improve it's when I closed up in $1.3576 CAD when believing that EUR/CAD will stop in this reaction, but the contrary continued up. Tonight, I will analyze EUR/GBP that was a perfect analysis in my perspective what I got 7.73% in profit to analyze it tonight, as I want to make an intensive analysis in this par.
Long
by harisonhbn9718
EUR/AUD: Review!!!Well ,in this last analsyis of my past week. I made a trade in EUR/AUD, but unfortunately, I loss in this trade 3.76% with my 1.37% in general loss. those it's sum to 5.13% in loss the past week, that in my past week starting in November. What I remember that I was in long position in EUR/AUD and into this bullish setup. So, at the moment, this trade was a little hard as after we had the past week the FED interest rate decision. So, as I enter in November 1 2022 at $1.5424 CAD, that was a bad entry in the higer and it's suppose to entry in the bottom previosuly like $1.5390 CAD levels and then the price go to my direction, at least in the top of this descending line making higher low. But everything it's process of learning edge So guys, in the past week I had in loss 5.13%. But that this not all, as this week I have 2 trade in positive in Ethereum and EUR/GBP that touch my my full target profit. That those trade I will analyze it more later, and also, I'm still in long in EUR/CAD in profit in this week. I have 2 trade that was excellent and I hope that EUR/CAD go ahead .
Long
by harisonhbn9718
EUR/CHF: Review!!!As this week, I traded EUR/CHF into this bullish channel with a bullish perspective from November 6 2022. EUR/CHF goes bullish, and also I had one traded that I entry around $0.9892 CHF, I was in small profit, but I take a better decision before that price make a little drop on November 7 2022 that I was in profit like 22 pips, but I closed up with a small loss of 0.88%. As this was a market manipulation and I was in buy order place later of this movement. But I was in long and my perspective was bullish. But I note that as EUR/CHF moved into this bullish channel, the price make fluctuations between this range. But on Yesterday, I decide to cancel my buy order limit and this trade, as I knew that EURCHF continue up by fundamental news. But now, I see an interesting movement that gave it, EUR/CHF break up the bullish channel and EMA 200, what if I see like learning edge process a short position in the top if this channel, that if traders see this point, it's a good option to short, but as I was in long, so I was bullish in EUR/CHF, but what I found out an interesting resource it's when we're into this channel, it's necessary to mark the precise point where will be the key reaction that the price will respond me Marking a resistance line of key reaction like this. this work in your trading experience. So guys, as I took this trade, it's not bad, it's ok in this trade that I got a small loss like 0.88%. And well, everything it's possible in Forex market and be prepared by experience, make the master. I will add the follwing link to related idea to read my past analysis on EUR/CHF
Long
by harisonhbn9718
CAD/CHF: Review!!!In this review, this was another analysis that I made in the past week. So, when I knew very good that CAD/CHF was dropping with the case like CAD/JPY, both pars are in dropping. And also, I made a very good analysis what I was shorting from Wednesday, October 26 2022. In the short from $0.7302 CHF and my target fix to $0.7230 CHF. Also, when came the interest rate decision by Bank of Canada, Canada currency drop significantly as I knew very good and only reach $0.7242 CHF, it's was so far to reach my target profit with less 12 pips approximately. This was a screenshot that I post in my previously CAD/CHF analysis that my technical analysis was driven by fundamental analysis very good in this formation of this bullish channel, what we canto appreciate a bearish rising wedge in the higher point of this bullish channel. So, when the price up, I inevitably closed up this long position got a small loss of 1.16%. When before I was in profit around 46 pips, but if i would have to closed up the short in the $0.7278 CHF. So, I would got 24 pips in profit at least. But after the price go back to the previously level at $0.7310 CHF. I entry in short again with my iPhone, but until I see that bullish rising wedge when I analyze in my laptop, the price was spoke me that it's bullish strong candlestick that it's moment to closed up again a short position, but the small was so diminutive like 0.07%, very near when I open the 2nd trade that I was going to shorten. So, in total of loss in this trade was 1.16% and 0.07% = 1.23%. And to update more, so, I kept in profit in 8.53%. So guys, I would have to got this profit if only I closed up manually in the pivot of this bottom in this bullish channel. But everything will be a practice. A widely word that I learn it's the following "The practice make the master" But well, it's no so bad these trades, but my experience will grow up through this case and process to be very prepared. I don't feel much anxiety or fear to trades. but my perspective I knew it very good. The only to improve in CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF it's only be pending and very update when occur when i have trades and what the price speak us. So, I have left to analyze USD/CAD, but never goes to my sell order limit, but I see that my perspective was excellent in my another trade that I'm just analyzed. This trade could be another excellent opportunity to take. Anyway, I will analyze making a review to know how the price drop and never goes to my order place when I knew my bearish perspective very well. So, as I made 8.54% in profit and vs the past week, I made 13.67% in profit during this month. So, I made 22.21% in profit. Only the best trades was GBP/USD and Ethereum during this month. Now, I'm currently long CAD/CHF from Friday that I decide to run this trade in this week. So, we hope that Forex market open up soon. I will post in the link to related idea my another review and my currently trades.
Long
by harisonhbn9718
1
CAD/JPY: Review!!!In this review, I made an analysis on CAD/JPY in my analysis there. Where in the starting of this week, I was shorting CAD/JPY from $108.62 JPY and my I had my target fix to $106.96 JPY. What during first trade on Wednesday, October 26, 2022, And regarding that CAD/JPY was in the formation of this bearish BAT Harmonic Pattern in formation, my expectative was very clear and brilliant in this par. And also my technical analysis was driven by fundamental analysis what on Thursday Bank of Canada was less aggressive to hike interest rates, what the central bank expected to raise 4.00%, but just made 50 bps in instead of 75 bps, That why the central bank look very optimistic and fight the inflation, this it's a warn that Canada economy could entry in recession in the next curb it. What that explain this sell in the CAD. Also, as I was from $108.62 JPY. So, when I said that Canada currency could to up from this lowe point on $107.89 JPY, it's when I closed up my short position and got 73 pips earned, what in profit it's 4.94% earned in the first trade. So, then, I entry in the second trade when I believe that Canada currency could to continue drop, but not, as continue up in this lower point from $107.89 JPY, and reached my Stop Loss lossing only 42 pips, that it's equal 2.84% loss. So, the small difference was an earning of 2.10% in profit in CAD.JPY. If I would haven't to entry in the 2nd trade, so I would got my 4.94% in earnings, or putting in long, I would got more profits when I had that in mind if CAD/JPY may to up. The small mistake it's here in my 2nd trade when I believe that CAD will down more got me a 2nd opportunity, when I see that up in the opposite direction. And as learning process, when we see a strong bullish formation in this pivot in $107.89 JPY, it's an opportunity to put in long position like this case, or simply closed up my trade and don't entry in it yet. So, I will calculate my following trades that I traded in the past week in Forex, together with cryptocurrencies as now. I will combine this work with Forex. So, I made this week 7.67% in profit in Ethereum (Review in the link), CAD/JPY was 2.10% in this week and CAD/CHF was 1.16% loss (incoming review) So I made during this week 8.61% in profit. The best trades was Ethereum in this week. So guys, I have left to analyze CAD/CHF and USD/CAD and then, to know my monthly percentage what I did in this month. I will share you my 3 trades that it's in run: Bitcoin, CAD/CHF and AUD/JPY.
Short
by harisonhbn9718
1
GBP/USD: Review!!!In this review, I made an analysis in short position after this fundamental analysis that I told in the past to review again: 1) Britain's new Financer Minister Jeremy Hund on Monday scrapped Prime Minister Lizz Truss's economic plan, which had sapped investor confidence in Britain in recent weeks. 2) The British finance minister take decision to reverse most of the government's "mini budget" prompted investor to reassess the outlook of UK interest rates 3) Bank of England comment that they will go ahead with plans to start selling some of its huge stock of government bonds with the first sale due on November 1 2022, a day later than previsouly planned to avoid clashing with a government fiscal statement. 4) Sterling retained strenght as investor sentiment soared as the UK rowed back on its ill-fated tax-slashing mini-budget which had roiled markets. ***5) The boosting sentiment about the tax cuts previously announced by Prime minister Liz Truss, now on today UK new finance minister Jeremy Hunt has canceled nearly all of them fiscal plans that prompted New Prime Minister Liz Truss. 6) As UK government announced the program to cut ta and reduce public spending, there're a potential risk of recession are still growing in the UK economy since 2021, forcing to raise taxes and weigh deep spending cuts. So, based in this review. I made an excellent analysis in Pound/Dollar in the past week. Entering in the smart point in $1.1351 USD and take profit exactly at $1.1171 USD. What I got 179 pips earned in this trade. But as this was very coincidence that my target was very fix an hours more later, the price climbed that would have to take my break even that I putted. But I got 16.34% earned in this trade and also starting this week and this month, too. This analysis was excellent driven by fundamental news very well!!! So, let's continue following how the market move tomorrow in Forex market!!! See you tomorrow!!!
Short
by harisonhbn9718
Gold Trade Review: October 5, 2022What a wild ride today. Price broke the low of resistance which would be my sell entry, right as i finished doing my morning analysis. This threw me off because I wanted to enter but I knew I missed the chance and had to wait. But I unfortunately did not wait enough, I sold at support and price retraced, hitting my SL. Keeping the same bias, I waited for a new resistance on 30m to form which occurred at 9:30am est. I then used the LTF to enter a sell once price gave me further bearish confirmation, and set 1:3 RR. News was good for USD which caused price to drop on Gold and hit my TP quite fast. LESSON FOR THE DAY: Do not fall into the temptations of FOMO; you will pay the price. Instead just wait. Be patient. Once the pattern forms that I want, then I can enter the trade. I am not missing out if I enter based on FOMO and emotions. The goal is to follow the trading plan, not to make X amount of money in any given trade.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by SoManyDistractions
Gold Trade Review: October 3, 2022My initial bias was to buy if price broke above $1669 but upon watching price action in pre-NY, a nice support was formed which allowed me to keep a small SL so instead of a 1:2 or 1:3 trade, I could achieve a 1:4. That means this trade doesnt have to work too often to be profitable, and with the NY volume and Comex open, I expected price to either break up/down with decent momentum since there has been a lot of recent consolidation, like in pre-london/London session. Entered the trade using partials at 6am, and then entered 2nd position as price retraced. I closed 50% of 1 position as the liquidity grab broke previous candle lows, but re entered once I saw the comex volume continue bullish. Hit TP for a 1:4 RR trade, great start to the week and month. Always grateful. Stay curious!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by SoManyDistractions
Gold Trade Review: September 28, 2022The Bulls came in strong during Pre-NY, after a liquidity grab, continuing the London impulse move/retracement, and looking to retest 4H supply/resistance. I entered using the 15m due to the increased volume and massive candle bodies, as well as price breaking 1H resistance at the same time the Comex opens (8:20am EST). set TP to the 4H resistance at $1637 and hit a 1:2 RR trade. Done for the day. Anyone else catch this long?
FX:XAUUSDLong
by SoManyDistractions
Gold Trade Review: September 27, 2022I anticipated price to retest and break through the pre-ny high. Or if it couldn't, then price should return bearish on LTF as it is currently in a HTF downtrend - I saw the second scenario occur. Price failed to retest pre-ny high, and instead formed a resistance on the 30M (red circle). Then price closed below the London support, giving me a short bias. Once price made a LTF resistance (15m), and then continued breaking the lows, that was a confirmation for 1:3 RR entry. I secured partials due to some support that may interfere with this move, and moved SL to b/e. Did anyone else catch this move??
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SoManyDistractions
Gold Setup Idea: Pre New York (Sept 27, 2022)Here is my analysis based on price action during the Asia session and London session, it appears we are retracing after making new lows. This means we have a temporary relief of HTF bearish influence and can possibly expect to see some bullish price action today; but it is certainly more risky to buy than to sell gold right now given the current macro economic conditions. I am ultimately looking to sell since I believe there is a higher probability of it succeeding, but if price break london high and shows bullish strength in NY open, forming LTF support above $1640, then buys are certainly possible. What do you anticipate price to do in NY open/today?
FX:XAUUSD
by SoManyDistractions
CAD/CHF: Review!!!In this review, I trade CAD/CHF to short and I was vey good when the price reach $0.7260 CHF, but I closed up this short before of it in $0.7304 CHF. What I get a earnings of 2.74% in this trade. As also, I put a long position in this black arrow in the bullish evolving but the price fell entry in$0.7303 CHF and I loss 0.76%.. So in comparison, I get more earns than loss in this trade, as only I got 1.98% in earnings. But the only to fix it's being disciplined a little more and also when we trade into this bearish channel, the best bought it's in the support of the channel. This it's the bearish channel in H4 timeframe what CAD/CHF developed So guys, technically we see a potential long position in these levels as we see a buliish divergence in RSI forming a lower high, and price action lower low. indicating a possible change of trend. What we could to get this opportunity to long CAD/CHF. So, in the past week I had 12.70% in profit and plus 1.98% it's that I have 14.68% in profit during this month September ***But now, I'm in long in USD/JPY from Friday the last week as I decide to hold this long position in U.S. Dollar against Yen Japanese. So, the profit in this par could be significantly to know.. But I will make an update on USD/JPY and not a review yet until goes to my target as Stop Loss in case.
Long
by harisonhbn9718