54% em 26 Dias!Meu foco ultimamente tem sido criptomoedas, mas temos que comentar esse belo movimento da VVAR3. Parece que os dados do mercado de e-commerce nessa crise da COVID-19 deixou o mercado bem eufórico, a empresa que realizou aquisições estratégicas importantes teve o crescimento na participação de mercado da varejista em vendas online. Ainda deixa espaço pra valorização de pelo menos 83% a mais, a correção deve vir hoje após as 14h ou amanhã. Não consigo ver essa euforia sendo sustentável no curto prazo, meu palpite é que o valor máximo que ela atinja seja entre 10$ e 12$.
Review
Monthly Performance Review - March 2020With elevated volatility throughout the month on March I choose to take as little trades as possible and only take small bites here and there. I only initiated 11 trades this month, the majority losers. To be honest, I am pretty disappointed with my performance despite the great opportunities. I will forgive myself however since this is my first real bear market I am experiencing and the loses I look this month was very small due to the limited amount of trades I put on. The fact that I am actively charting and analyzing this important time is a win enough for me.
The main issue with my trading this month was letting go of winners too quickly and being inconsistent with risk. In the middle of the month, I had shorted TSLA at 633 (half size) and ROKU at 102.50. I placed my stop losses too tight and I ended up letting go of TSLA at 590.20 before the drop to 350 and ROKU at 101.50 before the drop to 60. During times of high volatility, you have to expect larger swings and whipsaws. I had recognized this early but did not act on this notion. Secondly, I found that a lot of my winning trades this month ended up being the ones that I took half size with the excuse of "controlling risk due to high volatility". If this were the case, I should be using half size for all my trades. Being inconsistent with risk can skew your actual performance.
For the month of April, my goal is to apply the lessons learned in March by simply being consistent with risk and putting smart stops based on the level of volatility. Since volatility is currently high, I want to allow a larger stop loss. Furthermore, like last month, right now is not the best conditions for swing trading therefore I will continuing taking very small bites here and there until market conditions improve and volatility levels out.
Monthly Performance Review - February 2020February has been a big month for me in terms of process improvement and profits. I picked up some big winners with SPCE long, CZZ short, XPEL short, and TTWO short however I missed a lot of runners as well. February has also been a crazy month towards the end with this current crash in the markets. Amazingly, I managed to switch my bias early and profit off the dip by shorting CZZ, XPEL, and TTWO. Of course there were a lot of losers as well and my strike rate this month was 35% with a 3.35 W:L ratio.
In terms of process improvements, I've changed some of my trading rules to eliminate some of my short comings I noticed last week. For the past month I had been stalking trades on ZM, PAAS, SSRM, and NUGT, however I missed them all. The main reason for this was that all these stock broke out pass my acceptable entry zone right at market open. I had a rule which states "Do not take any trades within the first hour." I only had this rule because that was what one of the professional traders I follow does. I took a deeper dive into my past performance and noticed some of my bigger winners occurred when allowing entries within this time. This makes sense because if a stock is going to breakout, they usually do it right in the morning. I eliminated this rule and I was actually able to catch XPEL short later in the week.
Another improvement I made to my process was introducing Anchored VWAP and the High Volume Node (HVN). Anchored VWAP is best used by Brian Shannon to find sentiment and I now use Anchored VWAP on SPY, QQQ, and IWM for market analysis. The second tool I now use deals with Volume Price Profile, which I have been using for awhile, however after looking through some of my recent trades, I noticed most of my losers had high volume nodes right above the entry. These high volume nodes become areas of resistance which is something I do not want to see when entering a setup. I introduced a new rule to ensure there are no significant HVN between the entry and my target when taking on new trades.
My main goal next month is to simply improve my strike rate. I believe my entry and exit methodologies are acceptable, however I took a lot of unnecessary trades that could have been avoided by simply following market timing rules or using HVN to find nearby resistance. With this current dip, I don't think I will be taking on too many new trades at the beginning of the month until direction, up or down, is confirmed.
EURCAD 2 hour Block Review - February 24, 2020This trade has already been taken, not a setup
- EURCAD created an orderblock on the 2 hour timeframe.
- Block created after a break of a downtrend.
- Before the week ended I caught price breaking through and resting on this block, near the high of it
- Entry was on the block with TP at around 1.44500 which is where a previous 4 hour block was and where previous major support was found. I expect price to come to this area to create a new resistance or break through.
Long Idea11/Feb/2020 10:57 AM AUTHOR: Brandon Gum
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Not my typical idea, but if looking for momo, this is a candidate.
Expect price to stall a bit at 93.25
I have low expectations for this one and have no position.
On that note--> that has a RR over 3 yet stock is so extended. Is that rr of 3 realistic??? Or is there really more downside risk here?
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Monthly Review - January 2020 - (Also small rant on Tradingview)Overall, I had a break even but productive month in terms of education and trading development. Some notable trades were CGC long, INTC long, NIO long, CRSP short, and FTNT long. Although two of those trades had stopped out early, overall execution and lessons learned from those trades were valuable. I noticed I started off this month pretty sloppy, however I gathered my focus and closed the month strong with good discipline.
The overall markets have been pretty tricky towards the end on the month. The beginning of January started as a repeat of the previous 3 months - strong momentum and directional market. In these market conditions, breakouts worked well and it was a time to get aggressive on long trades. The last 7 trading days of January was marked by choppiness and my overall bias right now is neutral. "Bull trends are innocent until proven guilty" and although the short term momentum looks bearish, the upward bull trend is still valid and we are still above the 50MA on SPY. Now is the time to slow down, sit tight, and start to look for possible short setups if markets do start to reverse.
This is my first month since deciding to produce trade journals on Tradingview. I've tried trade journals in the past, however I did not feel like I was gaining any value from them. I like Tradingview since you can update your journal as the trade develops, which I find really smart and intuitive. One negative thing about Tradingview, which I find kinda annoying, is all the "Advertisers". There are a lot of Forex and Crypto traders who seem to be "Agreeing" with every single idea posted on Tradingview (Including my US Stock post which they seem to not even trade). I believe their goal is to get people to see their profile and to promote their website/paid subscriptions. Their analysis is very "Flashy" AKA lots of colors and indicators, which typically is not a good thing for long term success. I can see how this can be profitable, but I believe it's doing a big disservice to the development of the actual Tradingview community which seems non-existent IMHO.
In the future, as well as developing as a trader, I plan to continue using Tradingview as my journal and maybe some ideas once in awhile to help me organize and vocalize the trades I might want to put on.
USDJPY REVIEW ABOUT THE TRADE POSTED ON 23 JANDear traders,
I posted a sell trade on USDJPY on 23 JAN. It already started to move in our favor. We are already in profits. This will go to the TP(108.968). It has broken a upward trendline. And the selling pressure is a lot. According to volume analysis, its indicating a downward movement in the future.
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Guys if you like my ideas, please drop a like and follow me if u like my trades. Post comments about your idea too. We can manage the trade together.
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DISCLAIMER:
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This is just my personal opinion. Every trader is independent. Every trader has the freedom to place a trade in any direction.
Thank you for your support,
FX Specialist
Dragononcrypto 3 Month Graphical ReviewIn order to promote accountability and transparency, here is a collation of all the BTC/USD calls I have made in the past 3 months. Note that some where on smaller time frames than the Daily (that is used in this graphic), such as the 1hr and 4hr, but otherwise remain relevant to the review.
Bitcoin Repeating History: 10 Part TA Series On Repeating Past Patterns
Full series with recent updates: bitcointalk.org
Technical Analysis Highlights September-December 2019
Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown
If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario
Extrapolating the 50 & 200 Day MA bear crosses
Extrapolating 2014 Correction - Could $6,500 Be The Low?
Two & Four Year MA's Claim It's Time To Accumulate
Miner Capitulation Is Here... Back Down To $3,800?
TD Sequential 9 Next Week To Decide Direction?
Another Bearish Bitcoin Indicator: 200 EMA & MA Bearcross
If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown
A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low
If Bitcoin Repeats History? Descending Triangle Looking Similar
Failed expectations = markets fallingAs it was expected, the Federal Reserve System cut interest rates by 0,25%. But why did the market fall? Was it only because a group of investors expected 0,50% lowering?
Well, in reality, there are multiple addional reasons that we have to take into account:
1) global economy continues to slow down (just look at Pmi manufacture data)
2) we are still in the earning release time. Some companies are overperformed, meanwhile other underperformed
3) Despite the fact that the United States and China formally agree to restart trade talks at the G20 meeting in Osaka, yesterday Trump announced 10% tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports, in addition to the 25% already levied on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods. The reason is that China had not followed through on a promise to buy more U.S. farm products.
Let´s see what is going to happen next...