Neutral on Regions! A couple of scenarios.🔉Sound on!🔉
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RF
RF Regions Financial Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RF Regions Financial Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 18usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $1.65.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Post 10/22 Q3 FY21' Earnings Analysis$AXP, $SAM, $HCA, $RF, $HON, $SLB
All major averages finished last week in the green to post a third straight week of gains - Dow closing at an ATH - Big name earnings reports continue to drive markets
$AXP - American Express - reported Q3 FY21' earnings of $2.27/share - beat estimates by 27.5%, bottom line increased 74.6% YoY - driven by growing revenues & strong segmental performances - partly offset by increasing costs
$SAM - Boston Beer - reported Q3 FY21' earnings of $2.97/share - missing estimates of $4.04 per share - compares to earnings of $6.10 per share a year ago - this quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of (26.49%)
A quarter ago, it was expected that this brewer would post earnings of $7 per share when it actually produced earnings of $4.72 - delivering a surprise of (32.57%) - over the last four quarters the company has beat EPS estimates just once
$HCA - HCA Healthcare - reported Q3 FY21' earnings of $4.57/share - beat estimates of $4.10/share - compares to earnings of $1.92 per share a year ago - this quarterly report represents earnings surprise of 11.46%
$RF - Regions Financial - reported Q3 FY21' earnings of $0.66/share - beat estimates of $0.53/share - the bottom line compares favorably with the prior-year quarter’s $0.49 - results were driven by a strong capital position, & a rise in deposit balances provided some respite - benefit from credit losses was a tailwind - lower revenues & rising expenses were major drags
$HON - Honeywell International - earnings were $2.02/share - beat estimates of $2.01/share - bottom line soared 29.5% YoY - revenues were $8,473 million - missing the consensus estimate of $8,708M - top line increased 9% YoYr on a reported basis - rise was driven by strength in warehouse & workflow solutions, productivity solutions & services, & gas analysis businesses along with strong demand for building products as well as process solutions services and thermal solutions - also supported by a recovery in commercial aftermarket demand & solid growth in business & general aviation original equipment demand
$SLB - Schlumberger - announced Q3 FY21' earnings of $0.36/share - in line with estimates - bottom line increased significantly from the year-ago quarter’s profit of $0.16 - total revenues of $5,847M - missed estimates of $5,940M but improved 11% from the year-ago quarter’s $5,258M - earnings were aided by a surge in stimulation activity in Argentina, stronger North American rig activity along with ramped up drilling operations at offshore & onshore international resources - this was offset by lower contributions related to Digital & Integration from Europe/Africa
Regions Financial BullishBought To Open (BTO) 8 Calls of Regions Financial (RF) on 04-21-2020.
Stock Price--$9.19
Calls Execution Price--$0.42
Strike 12, Expiration August Monthly
Small dotted line is price of Stock when I bought the Calls. Solid yellow line is Strike Price when RF will go In The Money.
I see a wedged Uptrend with Support and Resistance shown by orange trend lines. Expect Resistance at $11.00 from April 9, 13-14 2020 (Good Friday holiday weekend was reason for irregular trading days) and Resistance at $11.50 from 9-10 March 2020.
If RF breaks through $11.00 Resistance with no problems I will hold and wait for $11.50, and repeat. If it reaches either of those Resistance areas and is unable to break through after 3-4 days (ish) I will close position and take profits.
USDRUB eyes 76 after expected reversalI expect the reversal soon as strong bullish divergence has been accumualted on MACD
and the price almost reached the trendline support, which was awaited earlier (see related chart).
The wave Y (yellow) could rocket to the RUB 76 area where Y=W.
It will be a huge devaluation.
The threat, problems, and preferencesTurkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan removed Murat Cetinkaya as the central bank governor. In fact, this is an attempt to threaten the Central Bank of Turkey of independence, so the country's monetary policy is fully synchronized with the Government’s actions and objectives. Therefore crumbled.
This is a wake-up call to the world. Recall, Trump continues to weigh heavily against the Federal Reserve System, he wants a cheaper US dollar and Tight Monetary Policy. As a result, the Fed is facing another dilemma. The fact is that RATE-CUTTING could be perceived as a “response” to Trump's pressure. So there is a risk that the Fed may postpone the rate reduction in order to show that their actions are completely independent. However, we consider this option unlikely. So our recommendation to sell the dollar on the intraday basis as well as mid-term position.
The head of Russia’s State Statistics Service (Rosstat), who had been responsible for Russian statistics since 2009, was removed from his position however the Russian economy is still weak. PMI indices in Russia in June went below 50 (it means a decline in business activity). It is not about crossing the mark below 50, but at the rate at which the indicators are deteriorating. For example, back in May, the PMI index for the service sector was 52 (in June 49.7), and for the industrial sector - 51.5 (in June 49.2). So the rate at the end of June dropped sharply, updating the 2016 minimums. So, our recommendation to sell the ruble at any convenient opportunity.
Our trading plans and ideas are as follows. We will continue to look for points for dollar sales. We work on gold without special preferences - buy is at overbought and sell at oversold price levels. USDJPY we will sell. Medium-term purchases of pound and euro are still attractive. We will sell the Russian ruble, as well as oil.
Tough week for foreign exchange market: the Fed, the BoJ & BoELast week turned out to be not that difficult. For instance, the data on industrial production was better than expected, also the data on retail sales appeared better as well, but still not that good. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI)came out below forecasts, but the difference was minimal, and the dollar strengthened fairly well in the foreign exchange market on Friday.
The dollar growth has been observed due to the Fed's possible future actions. This week the US CB is announcing the monetary policy decision. On the one hand, the weak data could convince the Fed to reduce the rate but on the other hand, Friday's data seems to have more influence in taking the decision.
The Bank of Russia lowered the rate on Friday. Due to the economic situation in RF as well as the current decline in oil prices, we continue to recommend sales of the Russian ruble.
The data on industrial production turned out to be lower than expected (5.0%, with a forecast of 5.4%). However, the weak data was offset by exceeding retail sales forecasts.
The companies are concerned with the consequences of the trade war. Therefore, more than 500 companies and industry trade associations wrote to the White House urging Trump to remove levies on China and end the ongoing trade war.
This week we are waiting for announcing the results of the FOMC meeting, BoJ and BoE decisions on monetary policy parameters, data on inflation statistics ( Eurozone, the UK, and Canada ) as well as data on retail sales from the UK and Canada.
Our trading preferences are unchanged: we will look for points for selling the US dollar primarily against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro, selling oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying gold. We will look for points for buying GBPUSD with small stops.
EU Elections, the USA isn't ready for peace & RF monetary policyIt is not surprising that nothing significant in the dynamics of prices for financial assets occurred duo to calm mood on the USA and the UK financial markets.
Tuesday in terms of macroeconomic statistics also promises to be a very calm day. But we do not wait for a lull in the markets - after 3 days of rest, traders and investors with redoubled efforts could begin to follow current trends and news background.
The main news on Monday was the announcement of the results of elections to the European Parliament. The main parties of the European Union retained their positions. And the main fear, the victory of the populists, turned out to be only a fear: Euro-skeptics and the ultra-right took 171 places in total, against 503 places of four pro-European parties. In this light, we believe that our position - buying the euro against the dollar - is one less threat.
Trump went to Japan over the weekend. According to him, the United States has achieved "significant progress" in trade negotiations with Japan. But it is not necessary to count on any final deal upcoming days. Nevertheless, this kind of information rather favorably and reassuringly influenced the mood of investors and traders.
As for the main front of trade wars - between the United States and China. Trump said that the United States is not ready for the current version of the deal "and that it is not easy to pay duties to Washington for Chinese authorities, therefore they will agree to conclude a trade agreement with the United States, in the end. So the United States will continue to push.
Quite interesting information about the Russian ruble was recently shared in Bloomberg. Experts at Bloomberg Economics believe that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will lower the rate on June 14, and then again in September and December. So, after a rather long period of inactivity, the Central Bank of Russia is entering an active phase of easing monetary policy. What does this mean for the ruble? That it will become even less “attractive” for foreign investors. We consider such information as confirmation of our basic trading idea - the sale of the Russian ruble. Considering that recently the Russian ruble has strengthened, we believe that its sale is more relevant than ever.
Since nothing special happened yesterday, our trading positions did not change: we will look for points for buying of the euro and the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen. In addition, we will carefully buy a pound.
RF still in downtrendWhile the balance sheet of NYSE:RF is a bit negative YOY, the net sales and dividend per share increased YOY, along with increasing profitability on the income statement, this is a buy long term. Price targets between $17 - $24, could retrace to fill price gap near $16 then move upwards to more attractive price per share.
$rf downtrend breakout lookout!-long term time frame is almost completing a symmetrical triangle and price bounced off support
-intermediate time frame shows break of downtrend line and price action shows the impulse moves being weaker as it continued its downtrend showing possibility of tiring out
-also price rejection at the 13.26 area showing support on higher and intermediate timeframe and started to make higher highs/
-looking to make and entry on this breakout on the intermediate time frame for a breakout out of the symmetrical triangle on the higher timeframe above 14.0x area
-looking for a move back to the .50 retracement level of 14.0x which coincide with the higher time and will be watching out for the breakout
-positive divergences on rsi and macd are confluences
RF Bull Flag Breakout: Don't Miss It!Hey traders, great bull flag setup here. It's moving on strong volume today so I'm expecting a breakout within the day or tomorrow morning. I will not enter unless resistance is pierced, but this looks like a high probability setup. I'll be letting it run after 1:1. Cheers