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Rgmov

USDTRY: Daily swing trade opportunityWe have a nice swing trade op in this pair, go long at market, stop loss should be placed below the recent low. I think the pair has room to rally back to resistance (see red line on chart). Linear regression and speed lines help us, along with oscillators and bar by bar analysis, as well as the use of RgMov, to determine the trend and where trend following or short term reversal opportunities arise. I'd say the odds of success here are big, but given the tight stop I wouldn't risk a full unit (your maximum risk per trade) but rather risk 1/4 of it for now. The same signal is active in the $EURTRY pair, but since I'm trading the $EURUSD pair separately, I'm only focusing on $USDTRY for now. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
8
GBPAUD: Time at mode and RgMov signal a buyWe have a pretty tight stop loss entry in this pair if we break a previous day high (PDH) soon. Stop loss should sit below the last daily low here. If we move straight up from this juncture chances are the daily timeframe signals the market is accumulated and ready to march higher once enough time passes, most likely trading sideways at a higher price zone. Current daily trend expired, a 12 day advance, so we can expect a 12 day consolidation or retracement, but if price breaks up, since the largest timeframe is trending up, buying into strength would be a low risk, big reward entry, which might evolve into a larger move over time. See the monthly chart below for reference. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
NEWT: Downtrend target hit, time expires soon...$NEWT is one of the stocks we monitor in our income stock watchlist. I like how it's setting up for a buy here, normally it falls after going ex-dividend, since investors leg into it ahead of the dividend being paid, and exit after receiving it. This is a reliable pattern in this stock. Technicals show price met a downtrend target slightly ahead of time, and as soon as it turns up over a previous day high, it will be safe to be long this stock. Additionally, we could wait for time to expire, by the date shown with the green vertical bar on chart. I estimate price will act as per the yellow arrow on chart, if it follows 'Time @ Mode' rules by the book (which is likely overall). Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:NEWTLong
by IvanLabrie
Weekly commentaryI'd like to discuss some very interesting market signals that I've spotted, as a result of tracking the US equities, FX, Commodities and Cryptocurrency markets on a daily basis. Many times people ask me about specific markets, or, decide to focus on one market they like. This is not the optimal way to approach trading in my opinion, since a market can be in a rout for a long time, with prices stuck in a sideways range, or, simply in a bear market, without too much liquidity or interest from investors. The latter is the worst kind of market action, as far as efficiency of trading signals goes, and I will explain why in video publication I will share the link for soon. We're looking at the #SPX chart here, I find it very interesting when there are big declines in this market, since more often than not, we can catch very interesting opportunities on the long side in US equities. But we also need to be prepared to anticipate tops, and extended declines or sideways action, which normally come after sentiment turns around. Most of the time, since the last financial crisis the world endured, sentiment tends to be bearish among the public and specialists, normally turning less bearish or bullish near local market tops, which can be followed by corrections or consolidation patterns of different duration. I'll publish a link to a video publication in related ideas very soon, stay tuned. Hope you all have a great weekend, Cheers. Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500
by IvanLabrie
3
XAGUSD: Silver has bottomed...It's clear Gold and Silver, and gold and silver miners have reached a long term bottom at the recent lows. It's smart to enter long positions on dips if you're not yet long. Inflation numbers have been the highest in a long time, election fears cause instability in equities, SKEW has been falling as asset prices tank, and investors have been buying call options, judging by rising VIX numbers since the market toppped. This indicates sentiment has turned bullish, at the top. Weekly time at mode signals indicated $SPY had a 13 week decline ahead of it, and long term charts indicate the market may remain sideways/down until the 2nd half of 2019. Add to this the data from the Commitment of traders report, where silver commercial hedgers turned net long for the first time in ages, after gold bottomed, and commercials also covered shorts and went net long previously in the yellow metal too... Best of luck, Ivan Labrie. Disclaimer: I hold long positions in Gold, GDXJ, TLT, EURUSD and looking to enter longs in Silver as well.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
XAUUSD: Gold is trending from here...I think we may be in the presence of a 3-day timeframe uptrend signal in Gold. Similarly to the pattern that emerged after bottoming in late 2015, Gold prices are set to soar from here onwards, if this signal pans out. Monthly and higher timeframes are bullish as well, so we might be in for a ride, with prices rallying over 1400 if we break over the long term uptrend mode you see in white above (white box on chart). As I was describing in my Silver publication, fundamentals, sentiment and technicals align, so we can expect a sizeable long term move off this juncture. One interesting sidenote is that cash levels in brokerage accounts are at really low levels, which also favors the bullish gold case, together with the evidence presented in the other chart. You may go long here or on dips, preferrably buy on dips if not already in. We hold long positions since I published my macro analysis chart when gold was roughly 1179, and looking to add to it on dips here. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
BTCUSD: Market is sideways...I think cryptocurrencies are likely to remain range bound, which means short term traders are mainly in control, while long term players await for fundamentals to evolve favorably to position themselves. Overall bullish bias, with weekly sellers exhausted and very few reasons to get momentum in any direction. I'd stay away from this market for now, my interest will gravitate back towards it by the time MtGox creditors receive their $BTC, or after ETFs or cryptocurrency trading hit proper exchanges like Nasdaq, etc. Fundamentals are bullish, but lacking to provide the backbone needed for a long term advance, and catalysts aren't there yet, for a move to the downside so the market will remain sideways, hurting the most people possible in every swing... With BTC being designated a commodity by the SEC, over time, we might see it be treated like gold is in the US. I think over time, as people are shaken out by the potential shake out decline that hordes of MtGox hodlers rushing to sell at exchanges might bring, would cause enough of a negative sentiment extreme to form a long term bottom we could buy, eventually. Patience, time at mode analysis points to a long sideways downwards drift until May-June 2019, which aligns with these developments panning out. Good luck navigating these murky waters, if you try and do so. Ivan Labrie.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by IvanLabrie
6
$USDJPY: Looks toppy here...I think we have a clear top signal here in $USDJPY, which aligns with the price action in Gold and $DXY. I'd reccomend a short position with a wide stop, and a lot of patience. You may enter averaging in during the next 3 days, or over the course of a week to a month, depending on the timeframe you're trading from. Daily, I'd use a stop over 113.85, and average in. The weekly signal failed to hit its bullish target for this pair, which implies weakness once we break below a weekly low next. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
1
BTCUSD: Weekly trend is down...As per my previous analysis, we had a good chance to rally from the last local bottom, back to 8500+- to top there and resume the bear market decline. We were long, rode a move from 6360 to 8200-8300, and flipped short but we were shaken out of the short sadly. Now the signal is very clear and the weekly confirms the downtrend with full force. Being the main timeframe in control here, this scenario is of very high probability, since it goes against mainstream sentiment and aligns with the longest term pattern which is currently implying a bearish/sideways phase until we reach the vertical green line in my chart -which nicely aligns with the timing for MtGox coins to be distributed and likely sold at market via exchanges by desperate hodlers who were stuck since Gox went to hell-. We can look to enter shorts at market, gradually, or wait for a retracement entry after the weekly close, which would give us a far greater reward to risk ratio. Cheers, Ivan Labrie. PS: Don't be a stubborn hodler, please go to cash...unless you really enjoy losing money for no good reason.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by IvanLabrie
36
USDARS: Fellow Argentinians, sadly the dollar rally continues...The target here is big, but it could go even higher depending on how it acts. I'd reccomend to divest positions in local equities and bonds, and get exposure to US equities and the dollar, or pairs like the dollar/yen. After this next top, we could see a bigger correction in the dollar accross the board though, so I want to be ready to capture the reversal, in particular by going long gold once we have full confirmation, which may come by September. Best of luck to us all, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
SOHO: Potential quarterly uptrend...$SOHO is a very interesting income play @timwest reccomended over at his chatroom many times. The chart has been setting up for an explosive rally, and we've been accumulating positions for a while, while also playing some shorter term swings in between and collecting the dividend each quarter. Yield is very good and the company has been really solid, so it is easy to reccomend this one as a potential long term hodl trade. Best of luck if you consider investing in this company. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:SOHOLong
by IvanLabrie
1
AUDCAD: Good chance to go long given the spread in oil vs copperI think we've reached a point where the huge spread between oil and copper will close, this type of scenario favors an $AUDCAD long position. The chart is constructive already, so, it could end up flashing a nice trend signal from here. I'll be looking to enter longs at market open, and exit once the spread is closed once more. You could also trade the pair, long copper, short oil, either weighted based on volatility, or equal dollar weights on each leg. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
USDCAD: Low risk long entry...I like the $USDCAD pair here for a swing trade opportunity, given the trend in the $DXY chart, and in the $EURUSD and $USDJPY pairs, as well as movement in oil and gold, I reckon the trade has very good odds. Market participants have been pricing in the fact that the Fed won't hike rates again this year, but it isn't clear if that will be the case or not. Either way, the technical picture is clear, and given the economic growth in the US, this trade has decent odds of panning out favorably. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
6
TSLA: Updated weekly viewAfter a great earnings conference call, $TSLA started jumping higher, and apparently shorts are being squeezed. The weekly Time @ Mode signal implies price can hit 449.36 within 9 more weeks or less. I'm holding longs since we hit $250 roughly, and added a few times on the way up recently, and on dips. Elon Musk claims $TSLA will be cash flow positive and profitable in very short order, and the production and sales growth certainly is very positive, as well as updates regarding their AI chips and software for self driving. I think we can see a very sharp rally from here, it will be challenging to not sell too soon. Hodl! Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by IvanLabrie
10
EWZ: Likely bottomed or bottoming here...Brazil is extremely washed out, but it has held a long term support level so far. I think odds are the market turns up from here. I'm long $PBR in particular, since it is showing tremendous relative strength vs the brazilian market, and it has a long way to go to catch up to oil, closing the gigantic spread it now has. The situation with the CEO resigning caused further headwinds in the stock, but it has now stabilized and coiling against overhead supply...over time it will break above it following the earnings report most likely -as long as the fundamental story doesn't change and debt continues to be tackled effectively...-. As for the $EWZ chart, we have hit a monthly low volume support, and also the lowest point of the last time they almost impeach Temer, this was a huge capitulation day for many investors and it is where most stocks bottomed back then. I'd look into finding interesting brazilian companies rather than buying the index directly, but it gives us a good reference point here. Another interesting chart is $EEM, and the Chinese stock market, both of which are also affected by the rally in the dollar that we had so far. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:EWZLong
by IvanLabrie
6
SPY: Weekly viewMarket is likely to rally until October and top at $300.21, likely related to the midterm elections generating volatility by then. Options traders are net bearish, currently, so I think we have ample room to go up despite concerns about the trade war (most likely overrated) and rates rising. As @timwest pointed out many times, in this case, rates will rise but overall, investing in US equities is attractive so likely the demand for liquidity to finance new projects, etc. thanks to the new tax law will be a cause of rates going higher as well, but not a reason to turn bearish on equities when the economy is set to grow. IF this weekly trend pans out, which seems likely, we may have a good way to time the top, and by then, we should see traders turn bullish on stocks once more, like it happened at the top in February. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:SPYLong
by IvanLabrie