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BTCUSD: Updated viewWe had a minor drawdown recently, which is completely normal when trend trading. We primarily follow the existing long term trade, so setbacks like this can make us lose part of the account value. In previous corrections, we managed to hedge exposure or even go to cash and short, but not this time. Even despite this setback, we look to be in track to trend up very soon. See the vertical green line on chart, for an approximation of the starting date of the next daily rally. There's also a chance we jump up from here after 2 days. I think it's possible that $BTC forms a 'distribution top', where the smart money reduces exposure gradually, on the back of the crowd, that lured by the promise of even more insane future growth, will end up buying the top in this market, for at least 20 months after Novemeber/December. In this regard, everything suggests our long term forecast posted long ago is valid, except that the upside targets have extended to between $6300 and $7600. Expecting enthusiastic forecasts of $100000, and other crazy figures once we hit the top. For now, holding longs, and adding gradually as we get more and more confirmation of this scenario. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
81
USDCNH Bottomed / BTC-Crypto ForecastDear traders, I believe we are at a critical juncture here. Quite possibly, China allowing shorting of their currency might have made the $USDCNH pair bottom last Friday. This is no minor news, and if we study the chart we might be able to understand the relationship between the chinese Yuan and cryptocurrencies. Since 2014, that $USDCNH bottomed, it spent a long time basing, before starting a prolonged bull market. On the way up, said bull market was showing signs of exhaustion, which us, using the Time @ Mode methodology could see and anticipate. ByFebruary 2017, it was clear that bull market had ran its course, at least for a few months. After a period of distribution, with the government making efforts to strengthen the Yuan, severely punishing speculators, forbidding the shorting of the currency, and increasing rates to borrow the Yuan, the market topped and started a strong decline. The signals on chart indicated a fall to at least 6.54509 was warranted, within March/April until November/December 2017. Since this target was exceeded, it is likely that the market is bottoming, or possible bottomed. This doesn’t mean mmedate upside, but possibly a period of basing in the daily or weekly timeframe might ensue. This aligns with the time duration of the decline, ending by November or December of this year. After the end of November, if $USDCNH bases around here, the market will be ready to surge upwards during December! How does this matter for cryptocurrencies? Well, the long term forecast I made available long ago, with the only change being the price target getting extended to 6303.98, had a time duration of 20 months, culminating during November/December 2017. This also happens to correlate nicely with the timing of fundamental events that can derail the bull market in crypto like the Segwit2x hard fork, and interestingly, with a period that already started, that of increased scrutiny and regulatory oversight, which might culminate in the start of a 20 month bear market in BTC, which is what the long term technical charts suggest. Now, what are the risks? There is a chance we already topped, since target #1 in the weekly was hit, and we already saw some pressure from bears lately, but there is a larger probability that the market won’t fall immediately, since I assume that the smart money will need time to liquidate their holdings. How can they buy themselves time now? Maybe approving an ETF for trading in the US, like the Winklevoss, and maybe even the ETH ETF surfaces and is approved...But, I’m pretty sure, that the writings are on the wall, the start of a 20 month bear market in BTC is well overdue, so, I will start taking precautions. First, I will look to accumulate long positions in the $USDCNH pair, as my first move, and econd, I will be ready to hedge or liquidate holdings if needed, to then redistribute to my other accounts in equities and currencies, reducing my crypto position to only 25% of my net worth. If we do start a bear market, shorting might be a profitable endeavor, so, why not? In the short term, I’m following sentiment and technical charts, to determine if my bullish outlook is correct or not. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
39
ETHUSD: Peak ICO negativity sent $ETH back to the accumulationThis is an update of my $ETHUSD long term forecast. We're holding spot holdings in $ETH among other currencies in our crypto portfolio for a good while now. We aim for the targets on chart, it should base here for a bit, before launching higher, as the ICO 'ban' is potentially either reinterpreted by the market as actually bullish, since $ETH is a protocol to run smart contracts harnessing the power of descentralized computing first and foremost -and not an 'ICO scam machine'-, or proven to be falsely reported or exaggerated on some crucial detail. Overall, I think this can resolve positively, but we need to wait and see to know how it actually does happen. The chart provides us with guidance, and parameters for risk management, as well as potential target zones, which have been reliable and very accurate in the past, so, let's see if we get it right this time. Regulations that could result in a catastrophe for cryptocurrencies exist, and have existed for a long time, but it is up to the regulators doing the interpretation of the 'language' in them, to actually enforce something that might damage the crypto markets -albeit temporarily, but potentially drastically enough to cause a bear market for 2 years, and a severe crypto market cap decrease-. As always, the devil is in the details, and we still don't know how the ban will be enforced, other than scarce reporting of chiense exchanges halting trading or taking preemtive action, and it isn't yet clear if/when/how will they 'refund' ICO investors. Who knows?? Certainly not me, or the market. It is key to remember that many of the insiders and market participants might be aware of facts we still don't know about, so many times, they show their tracks in the technical charts. Shout out to @db3NYa5Vww for the help in interpreting the texts concening potentially relevant regulations. Best of luck. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
KRAKEN:ETHUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
16
USOIL: Expanding on the analysis$USOIL has given us further clues with the recent developments. After the futures expiration, we had a big drop, but bulls supported the price before hitting levels that would put the rally in danger in the short term. We now have an active uptrend in the daily, and the end of a short term daily downtrend today, which indicates to me that we will see immediate upside in oil. If you for some reason aren't long, you can definitely join longs here, or on slight dips, and aim for the targets on chart, at least. This might end fulfilling a monthly uptrend signal, which could propel oil to the upper 60s, to even $100+-5 as an extreme target. Check out my previous publications, I have been moderately on point, capturing the extremes of the range, and I think now we might be able to catch the next trending leg, let's wait and see. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
13
USOIL: Long term and intermediate term viewI'm holding oil longs, and exposure to oil via correlated equities, and looking to ride the upcoming trend. It is likely to see a breakout in the short term, this might ignite a monthly, and potentially quarterly uptrend continuation signal. This falls in line with what the quarterly downtrend suggested, time and price wise. The price target was exhausted ahead of time, and after that we saw a strong rally, and for a long time, we have been in a consolidation and accumulation phase. The expected time to consolidate before rallying was reached now, so, it is highly probable to see a massive rally in oil from here onwards. Daily charts show an already active uptrend, and a continuation signal after a pullback. Bears might get squeezed in little time. The potential upside is huge, so, don't miss it. If you didn't buy oil yet, you can try buying on dips, or at market open, and averaging in for a couple days with a wide stop under the recent lows. Energy stocks are also a good idea, you would have to do your own research here, but, focus on companies that have strong correlation to oil prices. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
13
GBTC: 8 month uptrend active, 8 week uptrend might activate next$GBTC is in a monthly rally, and despite hitting all monthly targets, the weekly timeframe indicates it can march higher, which coincides with the $BTCUSD and $XBTEUR chart data. In this case, the uptrend started off the lows, and confirmed an 8 month rally a few months ago. There's time left, which matches the duration of the weekly signal, all of this is very logical, and gives us more confidence in our positioning. I reccomend entering longs breaking over a previous high here, or simply at market open. Stop losses are not reccomended, so simply size the trade according to your risk management criteria. I will reserve my exact entry method and sizing to my clients. This trade is specially reccomended if you lack a cryptocurrency account with Kraken or Gemini. Best of luck if taking this trade with me. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
GLong
by IvanLabrie
24
ARGT: Great long entryI'm long $ARGT indirectly, recently added to all my shares in the local market (yesterday on close to be precise). I anticipate a massive rally from here onwards. People have been pannicking lately, this increased to monstrous levels with the upcoming parliamentary elections, and now the talk of thermonuclear war. Recently I read an anecdote from Mike Epstein, at Tom McClellan's twitter feed. The key point, was that, the market will probably bounce if nuclear war doesn't start...and if it does, who cares if we lose on this trade, right? :/ Here's a link to the tweet, I suck at narrating stuff: twitter.com Anyway, Argentina is in a very strong uptrend, and the recent pullback is a terrific uptrend for the very significant growth potential it has, discounting political risk and currency risk, if the government eventually delivers. I'm betting they won't disappoint investors. Best of luck to all of us... Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:ARGTLong
by IvanLabrie
16
AUDUSD: Monthly uptrend finally confirmed - Buy the dip$AUDUSD took ages, but finally confirmed the monthly rally we were anticipating. I already rode it up from the bottom practically, but took profits today at 0.8040. I will try to rejoin this once we get a short term entry signal or if we hit monthly support below. For now, I'll wait and watch. The good thing is this is a big monthly trend and the target is significant, so we can get a lot of great daily trend signals on the way up, and countless add on trades too. Great time to trade Forex, after an excruciating sideways period of like 16 months. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
7
Wheat: Bottom of the pullback spottedI think there's a significant probability that the bottom of the recent correction in Wheat is in. I'm holding longs and now added my final entry a tad lower than this. I expect a rally back over the recent highs very soon. The crops this year suffered due to a significant drought in the regions where wheat is produced in the US. I think it is likely that this situation continues, and we get a strong rally from here onwards. Shout out to Tim West, who correctly diagnosed this situation with prescience in the KHL chatroom. Promising trade here, potentially similar in scale to the rally that took place in 1988. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:WEATLong
by IvanLabrie
5
XBTEUR: UpdateBitcoin is very close to start trending up again, as I expected originally...a correction until August 1st. I specially like all the negativity and manipulation that forced people out of their positions, into altcoins as a hedge, in cash on the sidelines. Many wanted to buy back on dips after the surge off the lows after Bitmain started supporting Segwit in all their pools, but couldn't. Dips never came, and when they did come, it was after the market had surged above the weekly accumulation zone (white boxes). Sentiment then reached a peak, and I believe many bought the top, and were liquidated after the next dip started. The buy the dip crowd didn't buy, many reverted to shorting due to a 'triangle breakout' to the downside. These short term traders briefly were in profit, but if they didn't cover, the market has already liquidated them or is about to squeeze them out. Now massive shorts are open, and I think the market is ready to burst higher, squeezing everyone and ther mother out of short trades, sending price to my bullish targets rather quickly. I'm holding all my crypto funds in $BTC as we speak, with a cost basis below 2000 for the last batch. I'll be looking to add after closing my short term margin longs in profit twice. My clients and me were in a drawdown briefly, but we have now recovered. The weekly targets make me think Bitcoin will form a top by November, which aligns with the fundamentals as well, since that is the time required to proceed with a hard fork to increase block capacity, as part of the New York Agreement, which is the main reason, together with the BIP148 soft coup attempt, which cleverly forced the miners' hands into letting $BTC scale via Segwit, and sacrifice their beloved ASICBOOST. This comes with a price I'm sure, and it will be revealed to us, what their end game is in due time. I have a few theories, but need more data to confirm or disprove them. The Bitcoin Cash hard fork, which is in reality, an altcoin until proven otherwise, is the key here. I will hold mine, once I receive the airdrop, as an insurance policy...I doubt -at least for now- that they manage to pull hash rate from $BTC in any significant manner but it's wise to be prepared for the worst by year end. This would be quite logical, and would match my long term technical forecasts making it a high probability scenario. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
63
RGLD: Strong trend, interesting upside on the horizon$RGLD is a royalty company that invests, acquires and manage precious metals royalties and streams. The very strong technical chart suggests it's an ideal play to capture upside in gold while keeping risk low. Their margins are typically much larger than explorers and producers, which allows them to thrive even during gold bear markets, which explains the drastically lower volatility compared to the gold chart. Now that gold looks to be poised for a major move, I think $RGLD gives us great opportunity and surely deserves a look here. I labeled some technical signals on the quarterly and monthly timeframes. The long term trend is already up, and targets point to prices over $200 in the not so distant future. Best of luck if investing in shares of this company. Have a nice weekend. Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:RGLDLong
by IvanLabrie
4
SPY: Update and long term forecastWe're long $SPY, from yesterday's lows, aiming to ride the long term uptrend for as long as possible from here onwards. The signal we had was one of a major market bottom, so there is a significant chance that we don't see drawdown going forward, and just a steady trend. The weekly trends show very interesting signals, with confluence of a downtrend's time running out, while a new weekly uptrend signal can confirm next week, and while longer term trends are at play, implying upside can be quite steady and significant for a long time. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:SPYLong
by IvanLabrie
4
BPAT: Highest yielding bank in ArgentinaI'm swapping my $GGAL, $BMA, $BHIP, $FRAN for more shares in $BPAT. I had already acquired a few positions a month ago, and looking to add today, and on Friday. I think the chart looks great for a strong breakout, and considering all the other banks yield less than 7%, while this one yields close to 10% it is easy to see the appeal here. For now, it isn't trading at NYSE, only in Brazil's stock exchange as an ADR, and locally in the BCBA. Huge upside potential, and maybe an acquisition target for $BMA. As a sidenote, see related ideas, I had pointed out Argentina's appeal for foreign investors, currently, Argentina is the strongest performer globally, YTD, when it comes to broad stock market indices. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
BCBA:BPATLong
by IvanLabrie
BTCUSD: Bottom's in - Expecting Segwit activation and no splitI updated my last publlication when I went long again. I have a full position now, in all my crypto portfolio. Waiting to add after we get further confirmation, and after being in some profit, on each and every single trend continuation signal on the way up. Sentiment and technicals gave me a good signal today, so I closed my $ETCETH and $ETCXBT longs, and kept my $ETH as a longer term stake. Made out with 2% with it, which helps alleviate some of the loss. Hopefully, people following me have a reduced drawdown, and are in good shape to continue following this powerful trend. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
186
ETHEUR: Potential uptrend continuation soonThe ETHBTC chart implies we need to wait until July 27-29th at least, but the fiat chart shows time can be a bit shorter for the start of the rally. There's still a chance to go lower during this time, so, I won't take action until it is clear we hold here for longer. I like how sentiment is quite negative on $ETH lately, and how people are scared about risks in $BTC as well. We can get a good uptrend continuation signal in the weekly timeframe soon, to rejoin the monthly rally, which is active until we hit that red vertical line on chart. Then we could see a larger correction back down, in a crash of epic proportions, or, simply, a slow and lengthy grind, to extend until 10 months later than that. In the short term, my reccomendation is to stay on the sidelines, but prepare to add cash injections to your crypto accounts once more, to buy into the $BTC and $ETH comeback close to the end of the month. I will get instant flak, for this chart, I'm pretty sure people will find the targets insane, but it is what the chart shows as possible/logical. Fundamentals seem alright to me, but once approaching this zone, I would be scared of a bullish sentiment extreme and a rapid 'bubble burst'. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
73
XBTEUR: Update, contracting/expanding triangle and sentimentI think we are seeing a massive sentiment extreme here, indicating a short term bottom in cryptocurrencies accross the board. We needed to see sentiment turn from extremely positive to extremely negative, to generate a new buy signal to resume the trend, so this is expected and good for longs. I'm watching here to add to $BTC longs, since I only hold 10% I entered at 2050 EUR on June 15th, after being in cash for a while. Since then, I traded a few times, but overall, we carry some losing trades, despite making some good gains on a few ones as well. If you're mainly following a trend, there will be periods of loss during consolidations. The good thing, is our portfolio is 'less down' than just holding $BTC. After the consolidation phase ends, we will outperform simply holding $BTC again, which is the goal of my trading as an active manager. That being said, keep an eye out for the next two days here, if we do hold, we can be sure of a return to the 2170-2293 levels again, and possibly, people will turn bullish after breaking the triangle trendline up, by then...to quickly see their trade fail, and then break down, people in despair again, and some shorting again...to then see their trade fail once more after fundamental risks disappear, IF they do resolve favorably. I think it is likely that miners finally give up on their precious ASICBOOST advantage, in lieu of higher $BTC prices, since they are backs against the wall, with a dagger pointed at their throat right now, thanks to the BIP148/UASF countdown. No one wants a split, it doesn't benefit anyone I think. They might try to stall it, meanwhile, and I guess whoever mines the UASF chain, will benefit from it the most after it is the dominant one and other variants are abandoned, so, it does make sense for them to not reveal their stack of cards before August 1st. Cheers, Ivan Labrie, crypto bull, despite mobs with tar, feathers, pitchforks and torches in the streets looking for me.
Long
by IvanLabrie
6
BTCUSD: Wait for the decline to endThe daily $BTCUSD charts shows a 20 day downtrend signal is active, and the target is as low as 1790.02 by July 29th. If we don't hit this level on time, or if we hit it too soon, it might be a terrific chance to add to longs by then. I think this aligns quite well with the timing for fundamental events. It is likely that Segwit2x is supported and Segwit locked in by that date, before the August 1st deadline is reached, thus preventing a chain split and rescuing the Bitcoin bulls, albeit in the intermediate term -before the 3 month period ends, and the hard fork becomes mandatory. If that is the case, I can already anticipate the hard fork busting the bubble, which I think, might see $BTCUSD hit close to $6009 at the very top, before correcting/consolidating for 2 years, a la 2013 peak. This might happen by November, which matches the Segwit2x hard fork schedule, if it comes to pass as described. I'm long $BTC, and looking to add once this downtrend signal fails, or even if we hit the target. It might be wise to hedge your $BTC exposure in the meantime, for instance, being long $ETCBTC, or outright short $BTCUSD (I favor the former over the latter, since it is a possibility that this support holds and the short sellers 'fall short' of their expectations in time).The hedge is optional though, since ultimately, long term charts are bullish for $BTC. Sentiment being extremely negative isn't particularly exciting for shorts in $BTC either, I think this pressure on price will be short lived, so, better wait the reccomended time to add violently to longs. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by IvanLabrie
71
AMZN: Short it here, antitrust law discussion might affect itI think it's a good time to revisit the idea of shorting bubbly large caps, in particular ones with a good fundamental backdrop, to both profit from the decline in them, if it comes to pass, and hedge our risk in other long positions we hold in our portfolio. I'm focusing on $AMZN here, which has the lowest risk from my perspective. For a great breadown on it, check out Tim West's post in related ideas. The weekly upside is exhausted and implies a slow period, either a correction or consolidation for a few more weeks still. The recent run up, on the back of dovish comments from Janet Yellen, give us ample opportunity here. So, in general, I don't advocate shorting stocks, mostly because of sentiment, and the bullish signals and valuations of many companies, but other stocks do justify the concern, to name a few, $NFLX, $AMZN, $AAPL, $GOOG, $MSFT, $NVDA, $WYNN, $WST, $HD, $BBY, $MU...The recent talk of net neutrality, and now antitrust laws, might stifle some volatility in internet related stocks, and specially big behemoths like $AMZN. As a counter argument to this, sentiment remains negative for the most part, which could imply further upside to be tapped soon, according to the AAII sentiment survey data: www.aaii.com The government and the fed can pull the plug though, ultimately, and if $AMZN does trigger a reformulation of the antitrust laws, it is in for a heck of a drop. In the long run, we will have losers, but it's always good to take a valid trade opportunity, as scary as it may seem, specially if it helps balance our portfolio risk, and help bring us down into reality again after being right in most things. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by IvanLabrie