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$SUSHIUSDT: Potential uptrend signal hereIf we get a breakout, we can go long $SUSHIUSDT here, with a decent reward to risk, signal could trigger during tomorrow onwards. I'll update it once it kicks in. Strictly technical trade here, I don't think it's justified to expect a longer term move in altcoins here, $BTCUSD's 2 week timeframe signal is a much better candidate for that, but we could get a short term rapid rally here, and the stop loss is tight, once it is active. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
$XLF: Long financials now...We have a tremendous signal to go long financial names now, as the yield curve is set to steepen once again and yields are rising on the back of the last FOMC meeting outcome, and the reopening momentum generated by the evolution of the Delta variant, and news of an antiviral pill from Merck that can cause a 50% reduction of fatalities and hospitalizations that recently surfaced. Charts are very constructive, as the $USB one I pointed out. I'm currently long a variety of value/financials/energy names as well as crude oil futures options for a while now, since AAII readings sunk below 25% recently. Now the broad market chart looks like a bottom is forming, and today a buy signal popped in $XLF, so the time is now! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:XLFLong
by IvanLabrie
5
$DXY: Weekly trend signal...This signal can end up nullifying a quarterly chart uptrend signal in $EURUSD, certainly interesting, massive coiled spring here. I'm keen on going long the dollar against weak currency pairs here. The $DXY trade itself isn't bad at all either. Market is in risk off mode so far, we had rising $VIX and $DXY while everything else was falling. Risk is 1.1% ish down from here, so size your positions according to your max risk tolerance. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DXYLong
by IvanLabrie
1
#SPLK: Catching up to the likes of $DDOGI'm long $SPLK here, for a good while in fact, but the long term signals in this chart only popped recently. There's big potential upside here, as the company transitions into a more cloud based business model. Daily chart had flashed a bottom signal which we collectively picked at the Key Hidden Levels chatroom, and I've been trading on the long side since. Weekly trends were in place, now daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly are bullish here. We can expect substantial upside into EOY/Q1 2022 in my opinion, in general in the market, and in this stock in particular. Highly recommend considering investing, if not already in. $301-320 is a great confluence area for a massive target long term. Moving below $138-118 would threaten the outlook, take that as your worst case risk for position sizing if trading it long term. Daily charts offer multiple trade setups where you can use tighter stops, taking in consideration the longer term view to filter the direction of your trades (in this case, long every long signal, maybe trail stops on the way up, or simply be ready to reenter after trade signals pan out, and new ones form over time, this has lower volatility, since you don't hold through drawdowns, and is better suited for more active traders but it is also challenging on its own as you need to monitor it frequently and be skilled at short term trading) If not, hodl as long as not below $118. Sell calls OTM out one month periodically. (bank the call short if prices make new highs after consolidating, very simply put) Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
SLong
by IvanLabrie
3
SPY: Bottom of the correction here...I'm calling a bottom for this correction here, the market held support from Q2 earnings season, it is still trending up in the long term, even if in the short term we had a correction due to selling due to overreacting and misreading Fed minutes, into an illiquid market. I liked @timwest's analogy today: 'If you sell into an illiquid market, it's like diving into an empty pool, it's gonna hurt'. I'm still holding my long positions and banked a couple shorts today, although I'm shorting overvalued names that are reversing, since certain sectors are likely to fare worse than others, rotation is the name of the game. The broad market chugs along, but individual names bring a lot more opportunity if you know where to look. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:SPYLong
by IvanLabrie
5
#BTCUSD: Bear market still ongoing...The daily trend had a bullish signal which I sadly overlooked and missed the move here, I still sit in cash, luckily I did cover my shorts near the very bottom. There is an interesting scenario setting up, everyone is once again complacent and bullish to the extreme, people are trading JPGs for millions, no one gives a damn about regulatory risks and everyone is back to believing in the Super Cycle nonsense. The daily chart suggests we could short under a daily low, specially after August 10th, when the current uptrend signal expires. Risk a move into new highs after that happens, and ride the next leg down with some luck. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by IvanLabrie
13
$BTCUSD: bear market thesisBy now, price has wiped out the 2 month timeframe range expansion stop loss area, basically retesting the yearly open price. People are now buying into YET another 'technical analysis' excuse for NOT selling and or buying into it on margin once again. This will keep going until the market bottoms. The reason bear markets are so annoying to trade is this, people keep buying on the way down, this is textbook as per Livermore: 'manipulators unload their stash after the top on the way down'. Fundamentals have forced chinese miners to unload coins to relocate their mining operations outside of China, this won't end anytime soon I suppose, and people have been destroyed trying to buy all the different technical excuses to date (moving averages of different periods, Wyckoff spring, wedge breakout retest, double, triple bottoms, etc.) You name it, people remain bullish on the way down, which is completely negative for price in the long term, this is called confidence in loss, and it is a sign of continuation to the downside over time, complacency at its finest. Without the GBTC premium, arbitrage players no longer were absorbing all new mined coins, and helping reduce available supply at exchanges, thus increasing the slippage on new big OTC purchases, which helped cause the bubble from 10k to 64k. The 'corporate treasury' trend is also over, since the last batch of institutional OTC buyers got destroyed after the Canada ETF came out and the GBTC premium disappeared. This was until then, a perfect self reinforced trend as described by George Soros in his book: 'Alchemy of finance'. Watch for reaction to the area below, keep an eye on sentiment, wait for maybe some big cue like Michael Saylor being forced out of his $BTC bag, and then we can go long. Trading the decline will be tremendously hard and annoying, it just isn't worth it. Stay safe out there, Cheers. Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by IvanLabrie
63
#ETSY: Big reversal, basing after the previous decline endedThe weekly Time@Mode trend signal here expired, signaling a potential reversal in the making. Price action was seen basing for weeks on end since the initial rapid decline stopped. Looks like price can stage a comeback and land on $214 or higher, or even new highs in the coming months. I'm long from around here, aiming for the blue arrow target, but potentially riding this one for longer if warranted. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:ETSYLong
by IvanLabrie
1
#NFLX: Long term trend resuming? Daily and weekly are bullishThe way I see things we are about to have a face melting beta rally, with growth outperforming value again for the rest of the year and into Q1-Q2 2022 at least. $NFLX might be a good position to have, quite unloved for a long time, lagging the mega cap rally, and coming out of a nice base, weekly uptrend formed after the 9 week down trend signal expired last week. I like the Spielberg partnership news, and the way things are going with the new delta variant and rising cases I suspect people will do a whole lot more of sitting and streaming at home for much longer. One thing $NFLX was lacking was new content, now they are once again able to film new stuff, and might actually generate some growth again. Best of luck, Cheers. Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by IvanLabrie
6
#EURCAD: Bottom's inI suspect the $EURCAD cross pair is reversing in the weekly timeframe here, we might see a substantial rally as oil could be peaking here, and the $Euro is oversold. The setup calls for a potential rally to 1.53, with risk down to 1.47 if the trade fails. Ideally you try to get in on dips after the market is open, keep an eye on price action for an entry. Alternatively you can average in during the day to not be left out in case there's no retrace. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
3
BTCUSD: Critical decision timeWe either started a bear market here, since the break down from the lower high (and the 2nd and smaller rising wedge concluded) OR we are at a nice retracement to rejoin the bullish trend which is still active, which could culminate with a rally topping short of 100k, by May 2022. I can confirm which is more likely over the coming days and weeks, and will give my clients the cue to buy when it is low risk, if the bull case is more probable. We sit in cash for now, since we sidestepped the decline from 54200 roughly. Altcoins have topped against #BTC as I explained in my dominance and $ETHBTC post, so the best bet is to rotate away from them if you didn't already do it, and probably a good time to hunt for short ALTBTC ops, whatever the trend direction may be. In both scenarios, altcoins lose. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
59
GME: Ready to move again...It looks like $GME is ready to break out from this range it was coiling in and massively rally towards $2360 per share by late August. I'd give this a 65% probability of happening, vs risk of losing 30% if it fails to rally. That's a 33 to 1 reward to risk which makes the trade totally worth it. Try not to risk over 5% in the position if you take it, in my case I'm buying 3.3% to risk 1% if wrong. That's enough for my risk appetite. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:GMELong
by IvanLabrie
24
QQQ: Uptrend in motionI am not a firm believer on inflation being transitory, and am pretty sure we are in the very last innings of a long term rally in equities that started from the 2009 lows. The yearly #SPX chart suggests this tops this year, which could be at any point of the year, and logically not later than EOY. The big question is when will the Fed hike interest rates, and what will happen with their bond purchase program. Stimulus is likely to increase, judging by the current turn of events and the administration at the helm. It's probably wise to be a bull in bonds, precious metals and equities for the time being, but I would be careful once we reach the end of the year. Mid term signal here indicates a rapid and steady rally in equities until late August, before the next consolidation period starts in the weekly timeframe. I focus on where will the rotations of big money will take place, and also monitor fundamental and technical developments across sectors and different stocks to figure out what names to hold in my portfolio. It's still highly interesting to analyze the action in $QQQ and $SPY overall. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by IvanLabrie
1
BTCUSD: Market likely topped with stocks hereI was considering the action before a long term top, with the action we saw lately in equities and the bubble in altcoins, it is very hard to stay long #Bitcoin here. I don't think it's safe to hold long exposure for the time being, and there is a distinct chance this was a long term top. Buying the dip near 50k was rewarding but it is probably time to bank those gains and move on for some time. This could easily crash towards 43k, where a potential support area lies. Some people have orders around there due to a confluence of technical methods showing it as a buy. If long term trend is up, I'd suppose this area isn't hit, if it is hit, I would find it VERY strange if it bounces after pleasing people. For the time being I will monitor this closely, but don't want to rush back into crypto until it is clear this breaks up and not down. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
102
Dominance: Uptrend can start from hereI think the alt season period we saw lately is over, it was a massive run since Dominance had peaked when Bitcoin was 1 week from peaking at 42k. The wealth generated in altcoins could be diverted towards Bitcoin here and help it recover from these levels. Certainly if I was an altcoin whale holding massive amounts of Ethereum in profit, I would rotate it into Bitcoin for a low risk play here, downside risk is dramatically different in both assets. The EIP1559 front run rally could be over here. Keep an eye on this trade! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DLong
by IvanLabrie
19
BTCUSD: Buy the dip opportunity to rejoin the long term trendI think this is a prime buying opportunity in the long term in #Bitcoin here, in case you were in cash here, or hedged. I am long already, after hedging part of the last decline as per my previous publication. See the Dominance chart in related ideas for more thoughts regarding altcoins here. I think a combination of institutional buying and rotation from altcoins into Bitcoins by OG traders and miners is likely next, and that we are seeing a very oversold dip similar to the one we saw back in September 2020. I have added a couple fundamental key levels to the chart as reference, in this case levels associated to potential OTC buyers activity (Coinbase Bitcoin outflows, probably going into custody wallets after OTC trades). We also had huge USDT inflows into exchanges recently, which aligns with my train of thought, and miners have been net buyers of Bitcoin lately, rather than sellers. We had some massive margin liquidations and now an increase in shorts at the bottom, which suggests we both got rid of leveraged longs after funding reset back to negative and open interest dropped big time, and we also managed to trap sellers who both sold their precious Bitcoin at the bottom and sold short to make things worse, potentially. Best of luck, hopefully I'm correct in my analysis here. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
23