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USDJPY: Weekly analysis - Trend up possiblyThis is a weekly breakdown of the patterns in $USDJPY, showing the power of Tim West's methodology in action. I'm back in the long side here, bought at 110.611, and will let it run until we retest the supply at the top of the range at least. If we do get there it will be interesting to see how it navigates through it, or, if it tops and goes back down. The market has some upside left, to the tune of 10%+, so it is likely that investors will use the yen to get some free money to invest in US assets. We have record outflows from japanese bonds and stocks, and it is likely that this correlates with the move back into the US for foreign investors. Cheers, Ivam Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
5
BTCUSD: Maybe still sideways, back to support soonI'm holding my long term positions, I reduced my exposure lately, and will be looking to buy more BTC after this potential move down ends. Looks like we're about to witness a new wave of fundamental chaos, with talks about Bcoin, a new alternative to Core, which apparently some miners are looking to peddle, and which already received some positive talk from the usual suspects. I suppose some if not all miners benefit from maintaining the status quo, so they started falsely supporting protocol changes, which they will never back with hashrate, to avoid Segwit taking their mining efficiency tweaks. If that's the case, the market will remain sideways until these miners are exposed with sound evidence, or someone releases their hacks to improve mining efficiency covertly for instance. I'll focus on the long term, and hold my 2-month timeframe positions, but I'm out of daily trades. I did open a margin long in ETHBTC as a hedge, so, that should suffice for now. I'll update my clients once I think the bottom's in, and after any meaningful change in the analysis. For now, I'll keep my posts here to a minimum. I think I have proved Time at Mode's efficiency in this market sufficiently for now, together with Tim West's prior work on Bitcoin and ETH. If you have any questions, let me know in the comments section. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by IvanLabrie
9
RSX: Time@Mode case study - Weekly uptrend, new signal soonThe Russian stock market index ETF is acting strongly. I think we can expect continuation of the uptrend within a couple weeks. So, try to go long on dips if not already in. I'm long using $EEM personally, but, both are good now. Longer term, the trend could evolve into a monthly rally, so I wouldn't want to miss it early on. You can see how the trends acted and were predictable using the 'Time at mode' methodology in this timeframe. The last signal time expired, so we are waiting for a new 14 week or longer uptrend signal to form here. Potentially, it can rally following the yellow arrow on chart, if it does indeed trigger a new uptrend signal. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
RLong
by IvanLabrie
BMA: Holding longsThe trend is very strong in the monthly timeframe. Every single signal has worked, telling us before hand what the market would do, with actionable setups and extremely perfect accuracy. BMA is a good performer, with still a modest valuation, and expected to deliver in the coming months, specially if the government's infrastructure plans pan out favorably, since they are going to benefit from it, being the largest bank outside of Buenos Aires. You can read more about it here: xbma.org The daily chart offers a good low risk entry here, in case you missed it at lower levels. I'll add the ADR chart in the comments. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BCBA:BMALong
by IvanLabrie
Gold: Long term buy planWe can buy gold in this manner. It's better to buy on down days, ideally between 1210 and 1202, but it will be harder to go that low. Buying under 1222 is ok overall, but better to only buy on each day when the market is down enough and hits support. Buy for 2 weeks at least, or maybe until April 21st. After this date, the market can break the top and go way higher. I don't think it can break out before April 3rd, at the very least, simply not likely. Takes time to absorb the selling to break the resistance from old resistance levels. This is a good asset to own in your portfolio, together with silver and a few currencies, as part of a diversified long term investment plan. A 10-30% position is optimal here. You'd start buying 2.27oz per day, for 11 days, but you could buy more if you can buy at lower levels, just aim to risk 0.25-0.5-1% if stopped out after you buy the whole position. You might end up holding a much larger position if adding more buys at lower prices. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
21
USDSEK: UpdateIf anyone followed my last update in my previous $USDSEK post, you are back in the long and in profit. Keep an eye on resistance here to see if we break through, and march to 9. If we do break the top of the range, we could trend higher, for a long time, otherwise we might form some kind of sideways pattern, or a triangle. I labeled some of the signals from the 'Time at Mode' method on chart. You can see how it perfectly describes the rally from support, and the retracement and eventual bearish failure after the rally off the top of the Brexit range. Cheers, Ivan Labrie/
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
ZECXBT: Bottom spottedI think there's good odds that is the end of the ZECXBT pullback, so I expect a sharp rally starting tomorrow. I've been accumulating for some time, and my average entry is quite good, and currently in profit, so I am willing to let it run to see if we trigger a new uptrend, in which case I would be adding shorter term trades, aiming to capture the potential upside the chart implies here. From the fiat chart, we also get good signals, showing strong hands are holding the market up. It's just awaiting a catalyst to take off, so, I will continue to hold and rebalance my positions for now. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
14
ZEC/DASH+XMR: Probably good to swap your XMR and DASH for ZECLooks like a turning point here in the ratio chart of these coins pitted against ZEC. ZECEUR and ZECXBT hit a huge support level which is an ideal long entry, so, if interested in riding the potential uptrend continuation play in it, consider taking at least partial profits from any holdings in DASH or XMR that you may have, to invest in ZEC. It is relatively stronger now, and also cheaper, so, it might catch up to these two other similar assets. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
20
Zcash: Potentially catching up with DASH and XMRI think ZEC will be an interesting investment, but it's not safe to just enter a big position at market. I'll leave the specifics of the entry and trading strategy for my private signals group. I wanted to share my expectations here, keep an eye on it, don't miss out on the potential upside. Fundamentals are interesting, with the involvement of Zec developers with the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance project, potential for Alphabay to incorporate it as a payment method, and interesting price action, I think this is a solid long term bottom in this currency. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
KRAKEN:ZECUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
8
BTCUSD: At the ETF key levelI think we can see sideways action in Bitcoin here, which could imply upside for altcoins while it lasts perhaps. I would want to see it hold for one day above the key level, to aim for higher levels. Otherwise we might either form a daily mode around here before breaking the resistance, or go back down to support, to then rebound higher. The theme is that the long term trend is intact, and it's bullish, so, you should strive to buy oversold dips into support, but not get enamored with positions that exceed your long term allocation of 20% of the crypto account. It's a good time to reduce exposure, and getting rid of margin longs for sure. If anything, lend to margin traders yourself. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by IvanLabrie
7
BTCUSD: Trend is up in the long term, but fundamentals are riskyI'm watching weekly CCI here. Maybe we go into a triangle here, until the risks are out of the way. This is what I see as most probable. Not a huge drop, like most think, but it can also happen. For that reason, to prevent losing my huge profits I got in the past two years, I have reduced my position to 20%, which I never sell. I also hold 20% in ETH spot. I am hedged via a margin position too, and waiting to exit the hedge and look to trade BTC once the dust settles. For now, take a break gents, relax, watch oversold readings in CCI in the weekly. Don't oversize trades, don't use leverage if possible. It's a two edged blade. If we don't hold support at 880-920, we could see a significant decline back to lower support levels. I don't it'll happen, but better be prepared in case it does (here's when the margin positions help with hedging our risk). Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
2
BTCUSD: Potential bottom after a bearish sentiment extremeI think BTC has bottomed here. I resumed my spot long position at roughly 864 euros earlier. I only had a 20% long position, and the rest in cash and ZEC, MLN and ETH. My clients and me have been riding the uptrend with great success, and reducing risk during market corrections. It's not yet clear if the trend will resume yet, but, this was a good low risk level to try and join it once more. Keep in mind I keep a core long term position open at all times, which I never sell, and the same is true of ETH, and maybe ZEC too soon. If interested in learning more, or gaining access to my private signals group, contact me via pm. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
13
GBPJPY: If it breaks the weekly mode, it can soarI'm long $GBPJPY, as part of my FX portfolio, I think we might see an increase in FDI in Great Britain, after the Brexit vote. The Yen lets foreign investors acquire free money to invest in US and UK assets. The chart is interesting here, so it's probably a good pair to trade on the long side. The spread in the UK stock market compared to the European one is interesting as well. I like the potential short squeeze in the Pound to further boost this trade once commercial shorts unwind. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
GBPUSD: Intraday trend analysisGBPUSD appears to have an 8h timeframe trend here. There's risk of this becoming a 'Brexit flash crash #2' situation, considering how the intraday trend time and price target imply a potential turning point when the news come out. My reccomendation is, either to stand aside. I think the market will frustrate the most people, and not start a big trend, neither up or down, simply, staying in a larger triangle/sideways pattern consolidation. If the market is range bound, fading the range extremes will prove to be profitable. I have my doubts about the dollar, since it appears to have a major topping pattern, but I reccommend caution here, perhaps it's best to trade after the news effects are known, so it might be feasible to trade technical short term trends, both up and down in FX, for a good while. If this indeed breaks up, then we could see a trend gain traction in the long term, which would be beneficial for emerging markets, and also give us more interesting trading opportunities. Let's wait and see. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
6
ARSUSD: Hold pesos, term deposits yield 17% per yearI'd hold pesos now, personally. As part of my currency holdings. I wouldn't be in USD if possible, and would prefer other assets, like foreign currencies, EEM shares vs SPY shorts, TLT longs, gold/silver/bitcoin/ethereum, undervalued selected stocks, TSLA shares, VLKAY shares, perhaps the new COIN etf shares once they are released, Argentinian stocks on corrections or dips, names like BMA, CRES, IRSA are my favorites. I'm out of them, but looking to rebuy on dips. People are terrified, they fear a crisis, they fear the local currency and stocks, they fear Trump...Many are closing businesses they recently opened, out of fear of the government's actions but I think it's a sentiment extreme and should be faded. I remain optimistic. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
SPX: Breakdown of the downtrend, and longer term signalsSPX is getting extremely interesting, now that VIX has spiked for more than 5 points on the current market decline. I'm monitoring the decline to catch the exact bottom in the market, which I think can end up matching the bottom in oil, and the energy sector, and a great chance to add to my EEM longs too, and acquire more latin american stocks. I updated my time at mode analysis for SPX in the yearly timeframe, and there's a target at 2987usd, so, we might end up seeing that after the correction bottoms. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500Long
by IvanLabrie
5
DXY: Potentially a short hereYou can try averaging into a short position during the next 3 days, risking 3 average ranges from the last closing price, or, risk taking a tighter stop trade, ideally above 101.75 (but you could start with a half position at market). The dollar appears to be at a significant intermediate term top, but it could also remain sideways. It's worth a try in this particular juncture. Long $EEM, long Canadian dollar, Aussie, Pound, Euro, are probably good ideas. Short oil as a pair against CAD...quite a few proxies for this. These trades serve as a nice hedge to long US equities exposure too, at the same time. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DXYShort
by IvanLabrie
2
How to use RangeMovement (RgMov) to trade the trendFor the subscribers to Key Hidden Levels: Background info on the chart: Green arrows with lines to the right are "earnings releases" which I call "key hidden levels". The "volume profile" begins from the Presidential Election. The red line near the bottom is the RgMov indicator (Range-Movement). TREND: Determine the trend. The trend is when RgMov is hitting 44-bar highs or lows. RgMov is comparable to a running line showing how easy the market moves in either direction. RgMov is a running line of the market's movements which push up through resistance or down through support. From a sentiment perspective, rising prices increases bullish sentiment for a market, obviously. People get bullish when resistance gets taken out each day. I found it makes sense to let RgMov tell you the trend (44 bar high = uptrend or 44 bar low =downtrend ) and then on a lower time scale such as 11 bars, find entries against the trend to enter the market. Note the green box at the bottom of the CCI(11) oscillator at the bottom of the chart. The idea is to buy on the 11-day (1/4 of the time) time frame when CCI gets oversold at -100 and exit when +100. I also recommend buying a cross above a previous day high when the market is oversold. You can also exit any way you want: such as using trailing stops under a previous day low or under a 10 day moving average of the lows. There are many ways to exit and you can split your exit across a variety of methods. The profits from doing this rack up over time. We just need to stay disciplined. We chase other methods when there are times when this isn't making money. But if you learn it, apply it, and commit to it, over time you will see the light.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by timwest
4
EURUSD: Intermediate term viewI think we can see a sharp rally back to the 2-month timeframe downtrend mode, as explained in my long term view chart. We can look to add on dips to 1.0564, with stops at 1.0505, or simply, add after each time the market moves 1 average range in profit, on setbacks. Note the triangle I highlight, constructed using the highest low before the election, the lowest high at the bottom, and the recent highest low before this last selloff in the Euro, which formed the 'Right shoulder' of our bottoming pattern. These trendlines are quite significant, so keep an eye on them for the breakout. It's viable to keep stops far from the action now, to give this setup enough time to pan out, but if you're actively trading, you can also trade around the core position, in the short term. I leave that up to your discretion, just consider the main bias here is long. We need to see 1.07396 hit within 3 days, ideally, which will probably be followed by stagnation, until we can break the 'neckline' here (happens to align with an ECB key resistance level (labeled by the green line near the recent highs.). Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2