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Rgmov

GBPUSD: Now we have confirmation for my stupid short idea...The technical chart has confirmed a weekly downtrend in the Pound as I expected, and despite being trailed out in profit, I'm looking to reenter shorts with force at market open, with a significant position size, aiming to risk 0.5-1% if the idea fails. In this news article, it's hinted that May will talk about a Hard Brexit in her Tuesday speech, which would give the bears some ammo to drive the pair down with momentum: www.bloomberg.com The fundamentals are strong for the dollar, and on a relative strength basis, the US dollar has the upper hand, both fundamentally and technically, which favors bearish trades in the $GBPUSD pair. Downside targets are signaled on chart. We have: 11 week 'Time at Mode' downtrend signal, confirmed on close last Friday, target is 1.13436 initially, to be hit before March 24th ideally. 13 day downtrend, continuation of the decline after the US dollar interest rate hike on December which kicked the decline off. After recently breaking down under the Presidential election key level and retesting it at the recent top, the Pound accelerated down, flashing the technical signal in my previous publication. It retested resistance and confirmed a daily downtrend on Friday. Targets are 1.18864 and 1.17693, to be achieved by Jan 31st or sooner. Keep an eye on these levels for a potential reaction in price. Also watch the strange flash crash day key levels, and the high and low of that day, since it may prove to be significant once again, although it's still a mystery what caused that event. A move above 1.21717 would invalidate the daily signal, and above 1.23854 the weekly signal would be rendered a failure, and immediate upside implied on a breakout of this resistance. Upside for such an event would be huge, since it would squeeze bears big time, sending the Pound up to 1.34406. I labeled this on chart, but it would be a shocking turn of events, and a lower probability. I'm open to going long if we break above this weekly zone, since the squeeze would result in a profitable trade, offsetting loss from bearish trades. Good luck! Ivan Labrie
Short
by IvanLabrie
27
BTCCNY: Intraday viewBTCCNY's correction appears to have ended, at least for now. We need to determine if it'll hold here, or break lower before finally resuming the long term advance. I'll monitor price action to manage my position size accordingly. I'm currently long, after trimming down to 20% exposure before the PBOC news fueled 37% decline, and added 60% gradually, over 3 days. Keep an eye on RgMov and volume and ATR here, for now, things are quiet, but this won't last. I expect to see a retest of 7498.90 in the short term, but what happens after that is yet to be seen, so, I'll look to reduce my long exposure back to 20% once we hit this target, or at least place a trailing stop loss, to reduce risk on part of my position. Remember to always hold 15-30% that you never sell, spot, no leverage, and no stop loss. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
14
BTCCNY: PBOC key level, and daily buy signalWe have an interesting key level where price might gravitate around for a while, at 7498.90. I would expect this to be the bottom, and if we don't go any lower, but instead, make a new daily high today, or in the next few days, we'll get a bullish continuation signal in the daily timeframe. Since the timeframe in control is mostly the weekly, I won't use the tight stop loss this setup offers, but instead use my position sizing algorithm to determine how many coins to own at any given time, without using a stop. The only time I'd reccomend using a stop loss is if you want the market to take you out, at least with part of your positions, if, for instance you expect some kind of retracement but aren't sure when it can happen. This advice will prove specially useful with Bitcoin and Ethereum, since they are quite volatile. Tight stops will never work in these markets. I'm long with 65% of my capital, and I'll be adding the final 15% position today. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
7
KSS: Good level to add to longs, or get in if flatI think we have good odds here. Risking a drop to 34.57 is conservative, you could also wager on price not going under 39.50 but I'd rather have more margin of error initially. I'm long from higher and doubled my position here since I think it's a low risk spot for the post earnings momentum to end. Within the next 3-5 days we should see price move higher. The estimated earnings level lies at 46.61, it's not yet confirmed but it should be close to where the last earnings release key level will be. A 2.8% to 5.6% position is fine for the first entry, to then add as you can reduce the stop loss distance with more confirmation of upside. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:KSSLong
by IvanLabrie
BTCCNY: Long term uptrend en routeThis is what the long term picture looks like for Bitcoin right now. We have now hit the Range Expansion validation target, which confirms that bullish momentum is intact, increasing our confidence in the forecast on chart. There are two targets, one with a high probability of being attained, of more than 60%, and one with lower probability, but still more than 50% chance, and a high probability reversal level on both cases. Once we hit the targets on chart, we could see price stall, or reverse back down to 2955.01 as a worst case scenario. We will be able to determine which will happen, once we reach those levels. If we see price stall, then bullish continuation is more probable, and with detailed multi timeframe analysis, we will be able to add to longs safely on each short term and intermediate term setup that the trend might give us. Don't pass on these low risk opportunities I present to you. I have been covering this extensively, so that people can see how well the trading methodology I learned from my mentor, Tim West, works in Bitcoin. I won't necessarily cover it in such detail in the future, this will probably be my last chart for the year. Next year, I might post updates to it, but not post so many trade setups for my followers. If you're interested in receiving all my trade ideas, contact me for access to my trading signals or private tuition course. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
4
INTC/AMD and/or INTC/NVDAI think a rotation is in order here. INTC hasn't underperformed this two, and specially AMD like this in a long time. All timeframes look like this might be a bottom in the ratio, so, I'd reccomend swapping your $AMD for $INTC if you have any, and/or take the pair trade. As you know, I'm 10% long $INTC, and also shorting $NVDA, but I have no $AMD position. The $NVDA one will suffice, but I wanted to point this out to investors who might be holding $AMD, sell it while it's hot. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by IvanLabrie
2
ETH: Gradually building a 20% account positionI'm buying Ethereum gradually with BTC over two weeks. I think we'll form a strong base and rally once again, after having bottomed at the low volume support in the weekly chart here, in the fiat chart. RgMov shows an uptrend, we got oversold, broke the recent downtrend linear regression channel not only made a new weekly high but also expanded the weekly range. If we break above the uptrend mode, we'll be in good shape to rally over the 100 handle here in the long term, so, don't miss out on accumulating longs here, specially if you missed the first rally before the giant sideways consolidation phase. If you have insights regarding fundamentals for this move, or any comments, leave them below. Good luck and happy new year! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
11
BTCCNY: 3 day timeframe sentiment analysisIn this chart I show you how RgMov tells me how far corrections in an uptrend can go. In the case of Bitcoin, declines of 20% in RgMov, set up a great buy after sentiment peaks before the market runs out of sellers, and thus, turns into fertile ground for a reversal to the upside. Since 2015's low in RgMov, the trend has been largely up, making any sizeable decline, an interesting buy. My posts have been mostly buy trades due to this fact, since I knew we would see prices climb back to all time highs over time. If you have been following my trades lately, you should be in good profit, and like me, holding a core long term position, of coins we own, and some cash to be able to add up to 80% account when needed. We often rebalance the position, switching back and forth between max and minimum exposure, but always keeping some, at least since the Bitfinex hack lows happened, when it was clear the long term charts were 100% bullish. Good luck and hope these observations help you. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
3
NZDUSD: Once again, retracing for more shortsNZDUSD can be bought, it was a long against the trend a day or two ago, and if it stays above the 'Bullish if above level' you can hold longs in it and aim higher. If it breas the resistance above (the low of the Brexit day) it could go and test the 'Brexit key level' which is the level sitting at 0.71342. I don't think it can go into a full blown uptrend, but rather, start a significant retracement in a longer term and a much stronger and sharper downtrend. So this is probably just the beginning. You can either long here, buy dips, or if you're long, hold, look to add on dips and move stops to 0.69196. Risk 0.5-1% per trade entry, and aim to trail stops after we advance above resistance, and start thinking of shorting this market at 0.71342 with a wide stop. The preferred method would be to use no stop, and enter over 5 days after hitting this level, as long as we don't close above it, and then trade with a LOW above that range. Seeing new lows after we arrive there would confirm the downside is inminent, but we still need to see if we can in fact break that level. As you know, I'm long precious metals for a couple days now, that's why I didn't buy this pair which is highly correlated with gold anyway. I'm also long TLT as a hedge to my equity trades, which is also correlated to this risk off theme. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
BTCCNY: Weekly updateI'm envisioning a rapid acceleration in BTC as we ramp up over the all time high. Many have been awaiting this fo ages, most haven't believed the rally to date, and still don't, I'd assume most think it'll make some kind of double top and drop, judging by the amount of top pickers getting stopped. What is the current concensus? We have some whackos showing up and calling way higher prices again, but I'm not too worried since we have a legit trend this time, and solid price action for now. I'll hold my long term position and will be ready to add to longs if we get a viable short term or intermediate term trend continuation setup. My signals clients will receive the alerts first hand, and all the updates for this and Ethereum. I'll post updates and new charts here, but I won't make such a detailed coverage as last year, where I pretty much gave a lot of stuff away. If anyone has been following me, they should have made a considerable amount of money with Bitcoin. If you did, leave your comments below, I'd be glad to hear what everyone thinks now too, since we're in almost uncharted waters! Happy new year! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
48
BTC and ETH: Time for ETH to catch upI think we can get a retrace or sideways range in BTC, or simply a way faster rally in ETHUSD compared to BTCUSD, which would bring the ETHBTC pair up more than 100% probably. I'm in a position with avg entry at 0.00805 in ETHBTC, and looking to add at 0.0083 and 0.008 next. I aim to have a 15% exposure in ETH, as well as a 15% in BTC while this rally lasts, then to revert back to BTC after we top in Ethereum. The fundamentals are still uncertain but after the next update is out, we could see renewed interest in investing in this instrument. For now, it's not too popular, but it has good liquidity again, and some interesting moves, as well as a fantastic spread, so it is worth a try here. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
USD longs: P&L and max drawdown YTDLet's take a look at the most interesting USD long ideas. I favor the following pairs: USDMXN USDNOK USDSEK USDEUR USDGBP USDCNH USDJPY USDTRY These have strong trends, and fundamental reasons to continue trending higher and steadily. We can take trades in the basket I present here, but we don't need constant exposure to all the pairs. Being selective with the FX positions, and the combined size will be vital to achieve profitability in the long run. If you're trading the same idea, with the same sizes, technical entries, and stops, you're basically multiplying your risk. I have come to determine that a swing trading and position trading strategy is more suitable with my personality, and also, a good way of riding trends without having big risks initially, but, on the contrary, increasing exposure gradually while the trades prove us right. Right now, we see that USDMXN, USDGBP and USDTRY are the most volatile, and the ones with the biggest advance YTD, with more than 20% progress. USDJPY and USDNOK are down for the year, but had a massive recovery after the presidential elections in the US. In fact, on a time vs price basis, USDMXN, USDGBP and USDJPY sport the sharpest advances in all of these pairs. So, I'd say that the trend is bullish without a doubt, despite being in the red on some pairs, for the year. We can also observe the type of consolidations and volatility, to determine which pairs we want to approach in which way, this will be critical in ensuring your chosen trading strategy is suitable for trading each pair, or when to favor a specific trading style, on which pair, and when to simply stay put until conditions are favorable. This type of observation will be vital for FX traders. It also puts thing in perspective, and is the type of analysis that some instutions or hedge funds might do, when looking at assets, performance, volatility, drawdown YTD, on a monthly, quarterly, weekly, daily basis, etc. We can see that, the top dogs are: USDMXN and USDGBP, on a p&l YTD and max drawdown basis, with 20.59% and 20.03% advance, and a small drawdown of less than 1% and 1.85% respectively. So, we might see that these pairs see a continuation of the advance going into year end. Hope you find this helpful, if you have questions or comments leave them below. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
8
Global update: I'm out of most equity positions for nowExcept for $NVDA short and $RVLT long. You can see how these fared against $SPY this year. I'm anticipating a breakdown in $NVDA, and maybe some kind of correction in $SPY, which would give us a lot of great opportunities next year, so, for now, I take my modest profits in equities home for the year and let these two running. I'm in BTCCNY, RVLT, NVDA short, USDSEK, USDTRY, USDNOK, EURUSD short, USDJPY for the time being, and will look to reenter my other positions next year. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by IvanLabrie
4
Short term risk off move starting?I think we'll see some kind of retracement in the massive trends we had in place accross the board. Overall, I'm looking to buy weakness in the dollar in the long term, and looking for good value stocks, shorting overvalued stocks if needed, but rarely, and navigating the main trends in commodities. Metals look poised to rally with bonds here, at least in the short term, so having some exposure there might be a good idea. Either that, or hedging your equity exposure for the time being. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
2
XAGUSD: Silver might initiate a retracement soonIf you want, you can take the long side, but I anticipate it will be disappointing, IF it bottoms here for a couple weeks. It's possible a retracement in a downtrend starts, but it's not 100% clear just yet. If over the next 5 days we don't make any new daily low, it'll be confirmed, and might produce a similar price action to the previous retracements. Taking the long side, you can buy gradually over 5 days, starting today, with a stop under today's low, aiming to risk a total of 0.5-1% once you have a full position after this time passes. Good luck, and Merry Christmas. Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAGUSD
by IvanLabrie
5
USOIL: Uptrend failure is possibleOil's uptrend has been relentless but the advance slowed down to a grind lately, approaching areas of key resistance, where usually supply swamps demand to date. Fundamentals favor the downside here, and I think it's logical to expect a sell off, as OPEC's deal fails to surmount the sale of the US' Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) that was recently announced, as well as a pro-US shale, pro-exploration in Alaska, etc. President Trump. This also happens to hurt Russia and their currency, which would be something I'd expect to see favored by the US, to slow down Russia's momentum strategically, at this crucial point in time. But hey 'Didn't Trump praise Putin?', well yes, but: www.zerohedge.com Despite what the narrative and the rhetoric is, actions of the different actors speak louder, the thing is being able to figure out when fundamentals and logic start to matter more than momentum and social mood. Let's keep an eye on oil around here, if it doesn't hit the target I labeled on chart in time, it's likely to sell off. A move under support, will see oil drop to the levels below as signaled on the chart. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILShort
by IvanLabrie
8
USDSEK: UpdateWe have reentered longs on this dip back to the FOMC/Rate hike key level support. I'm buying a position gradually for a couple more days, so far, I have fills at 9.1643 and 9.2085, which will constitute my reentry to ride the long term uptrend here. My trading plan lets me increase position size and reduce stops gradually, until the trend takes me out if it starts retracing, after which I wait to reenter at the end of the corrections. Risking a drop under today's low is probably good, but also a bit aggressive for now. If it were to get oversold, we would have a bit less risk with tight stops, so for now, I risk 3 average ranges down from my avg. entry price. I'll gradually add, and eventually trail stops up in profit, and continue to add as per the plan if the trend remains up. When markets are trending strongly, we can make a lot of money, so, make sure to not miss the moves here. See related ideas for more information on this pair's signals. If interested in learning more, contact me via pm here. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
7
BTCCNY: Intraday update, short term dip during ChristmasChinese traders typically perpetrate some strange moves during public holidays, and today is no exception, we already saw a sharp decline after yesterday's strong advance. This dip is a short term buying opportunity, so, thank you OKCoin. Let's buy over the next 3 days, gradually. I already bought 15% at 6375 and will add 15% more around here, and looking to add the remainder of my position if we go lower ideally. The buy zone is highlighted in green on chart. I don't reccomend setting stop loss orders, simply size the trade to reach a maximum of 80% of your capital once your position is full. That should keep you out of harm 99% of the time. That said, we don't want to see price drop under 6102.29, if it does, it could go a tad lower and test weekly support levels below. If we don't hit 7047 before the week closes, we might see price go sideways, but, for now, we need to focus on the present, which is screaming buy (gradually). Good luck and Merry Christmas, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
17