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USOIL: Intraday viewUSOIL has rallied after the dip that started last Friday bottomed against support. Like I explained in my futures chart, shorts could get trapped if price were to move above the level I labeled in it, and, moving above Friday's close, would warrant a long trade too. The long trade idea is working, and now we're faced with a few possibilities going into the OPEC meeting. Two things can happen: If price doesn't gain momentum and break above 48 within the next 3 hours, we could see it drop back to support at 46 give or take. This would warrant a buy as well, risking a new daily low perhaps. On the other hand, if price moves above 48 soon, and stays there on close, then we can probably get a breakout trade, a 'Time at mode' signal in the daily timeframe, taking off after the OPEC meeting is out of the way (this is probable, but I'd rather buy more on dips). If you're flat, wait for a dip to enter against 46 give or take, or, wait for the breakout trade signal...or short $USDCAD at market with a half position, and stops above at least 1.35125 (or higher) and be willing to add after today's close, if we get a retracement over 1.3450 with the same stop. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
20
Ethereum: how altcoin bull markets usually die...Ethereum looks really bad, and without any fundamental catalyst, the best trade here is "no trade". I think it's due for a long term decline, based on the 3-week timeframe signals, we could see some buying when we hit the 0.0075 mark, give or take. It appears as if it's simply drifting down, on low activity, due to lack of any developments, and investors giving up, and simply accepting any fill to get out of this market. Fills are rare, as you can see in the volume graph, so, it creates this slow drift to the downside, with smaller and smaller bar ranges. I hope no one is long this here, and if you do, I'd assume you're insider cause, as of today, there's no reason to buy it. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
4
TSLA: Correction potentially overI'm long TSLA from here, risk is $19.83 per share. I expect a short squeeze rally to come after the merger news come out. If price drops lower, I'd look to buy near $150, but I doubt it'll happen. Long term, buying in this wide range, between 150 and 200 is possibly a great trade. Technically wise, price appears to have formed a falling wedge, maybe the last wave of a correction before more upside. If that's the case we'll see a very rapid rally back to the $270 mark in 1/4 of the time it took to fall down from it. Additionally, we're up for the day here after testing a low volume support level from the weekly, so we have a low risk long opportunity in play. Refer to Tim West's TSLA Elliott Wave count for more information. (keep in mind this is my interpretation of the chart. If you have any doubts about the wave count, contact Tim. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by IvanLabrie
35
BTCCNY: Daily viewBTCCNY has a longer term uptrend, but here I'm looking at the daily linear regression channels we can draw on each swing. If you extend the lines, after a high pivot happens, you can see where price can bounce, to maintain the uptrend progress. The pink arrows show this, and the channel changes with any high pivot that is broken on retest. I think we have a chance to get action like the green pathway implies, but I'm open to a larger consolidation or even a pullback lower, so I'll react to whatever happens next. For the time being I know where to place my stop if I get a buy agains the support zone between 4953 and 5102: 4805.26. This is a weekly level though, and we also need to wait for one more week to determine if the uptrend speed is sufficient to keep this pace, else we'll see a correction for some time. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
19
USOIL: Hold longs!USOIL is tracing a daily uptrend, and broke above the recent downtrend's linear regression channel. If we hold the current uptrend pace, we can expect the top key level resistances to be hit in a day or two. I'd assume we'll stall while holding support above the monthly downtrend mode in blue, so, I'll be monitoring the uptrend progress to add to it if viable, and to time our exit. I think it's possible we get an OPEC production cut agreement, which could squeeze most shorts, who don't believe it is possible, and the overall bearish retail traders. Trump could play out as a wild card here as well, so it's worth it to keep some long exposure to energy, oil and gas in particular. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
19
XAGUSD: 2-month timeframe and weekly timeframe analysisWe have an interesting juncture in Silver here. Next week, if we don't hit 16.075 on close, bear momentum validation will have failed, giving us a buy signal. This happens to match the time expiration of the recent 9 week downtrend signal, which has already exhausted it downside potential ahead of time. If we don't hit 14.881, the long term chart has a potential buy on any drop below 16.412, so it becomes increasingly interesting to go long Silver with this confluence of technical setups in multiple timeframes. Now, the uptrend signals in lower timeframes, might lead to longer term selling by big players, and if that's the case, we could be seeing longer term downtrend continuation, but that remains yet to be seen. What we could glean so far from activity, is that commercials are long term bearish, and whenever they tip the scale too much towards net short positions, silver and gold break down massively, crushing the gold bugs hearts. I think it's not possible to have a long term reversal, before all of them give up, but it hasn't happened yet, and it's unthinkable almost, to see people give up on gold and silver, so I always remain skeptical with long term buys in metals for this reason. Good luck riding the shorter term waves here, Cheers. Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
3
EURUSD: Small long active, adding if we get strengthI think we can get a significant retracement in the Euro until December at least, so I'm currently long from 1.0534, risking a drop to 1.0397, and will look to manage the position and add to it on strength. The key levels here illustrate where to monitor for a reaction on retests, and can give you an idea of what to expect. After today's close, if we get a smaller range day, we could look to add to longs on strength, or alternatively, wait for 3 daily bars to confirm the bearish momentum has faded. I'll be monitoring it and updating this chart once I add to longs. Once the rally is done, I think we will be able to resume the long positions in the dollar, against the SEK and JPY in particular, but possibly against the Euro as well. We'll have to wait and see, but for now, my preferred shorts are SEK and JPY, once viable. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
BTCCNY: Weekly uptrend updateI highlighted the weekly support buy zones we have had in the past, as well as the curretly active one. The 8h setup I pointed at might not work with a tight stop, but it's still good to hold longs from 4950-5100 overall. Just make sure your risk, if adding new positions is 1-2% max, if price were to go against you and hit 4805.26. It really shouldn't, to conserve the uptrend speed and achieve 5710.74 on time. If we don't hit this level before December 12th, then Bitcoin might endure a correction which could be a pullback, or simply lack of activity and a slow sideways drift again, before more upside is attainable. Fundamentals would have to get in line, but for now, technicals give us comfort in long positions. Watch the linear regression channel support, watch the moving average on chart, we shouldn't see a close below them, and we should hit the target we have here on time. Also, watch the speed line on chart, which indicates the minimum required pace the uptrend has to keep to remain valid, all of these tools tell us when to expect a correction. The only thing is that which we can't know in advance what the price behavior will be after it starts, so, we'll have to react and not predict too far in the future. Long term target remains above 7000, based on weekly signals, and there's a longer term timeframe signal pointing way higher as well, so, there's no need to fear long trades, as long as we time the entry correctly, they will reward us handsomely. Good luck, Ivan Labrie. Disclosure: I hold long positions with no leverage, nor stop losses, that equate to 55% of my account value currently, all in profit, except for the last entry at break even or minor loss. I have been buying and selling dips, to book profits and allow me to keep risk free holds.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
GBPUSD: Time at mode uptrend might give us a great short soonGBPUSD has an interesting chart here, with very clear resistance levels and a stop loss level for short trades. We will be looking to short the top of the current uptrend, to rejoin the long term decline in the Pound. I think the uptrend is doomed from the get go, being a pullback in a downtrend, so, I will look to fade the rally when safe. The chart shows a potential signal that could take price to the vicinity of 1.2830, but, there is a massive supply level at 1.2767 that could make the uptrend fail. Look for shorts above 1.2767 ideally, you can take a long term position and spread the selling over multiple days, using the stop on chart. If the analysis is correct, we'll get more confirmation for a precise technical short entry soon, for now, wait for updates here, and watch it. Going long isn't reccomended, although this will probably rally while EURUSD retraces. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
4
NZDUSD: Sell the top of the rallyNZDUSD has an interesting setup here. RgMov has now changed direction showing the trend is potentially down, so it might be safer to sell it at the top of the ongoing correction, to rejoin the recently started downtrend. This makes me think gold and the Euro will behave similarly, which is what I had originally thought. The dollar long term uptrend might have resumed before our eyes, and we're seeing the first correction in daily scale, so don't miss it! I'll be looking to short against a key level, once price action favors it, so, for the time being I'm standing aside and watching. We have enough trades to go long during the dollar correction. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
BTCCNY: 8h RgMov trade setupThe 8h chart shows a nice buy opportunity on a break of the last bar's high after the close. The RgMov indicator shows the trend is up, so buying pullbacks is always a good idea. I'm adding a 25% position here, and adding 25% more on a break of this bar's high, targetting a retest of the 5350+- zone. There's also a chance that we break the highs, triggering a short squeeze rally, after forced liquidation of the short sellers. I labeled previous buy setups like this one on chart, to give you an idea of the effectiveness of the method in this timeframe. If you're interested in learning more about how I trade, don't hesitate and send me a pm for more information. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
4