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SPY: Update - Bottom was inHow are people still bearish on SPY? I'm glad I didn't close my equity longs, although I did have a stop out at break even on my SPX position overnight. The way SPX bottomed against the BIG$ support level obtained from VIX showed us there was going to be a rally once again. The reaction to Trump's increasing odds, and finally victory in the elections was absolutely extreme, 'despair' like my mentor, Tim West described it in his yearly forecast chart. This sentiment extreme sets the stage for a rally, and we already had such rally. Now, if this keeps going there's a chance that it confirms my 2-month timeframe uptrend signal, with a target at 249. The signal was confirmed by the end of October, and the retest of support simply gave a low risk buy opportunity which we seized. We'll be examining this closely in the near future. Hopefully Trump manages to help the economy pick up steam with his plans, and doesn't implement his ridiculous ideas like the 'Mexican wall' to name a few. Positives are many, unknowns too, but I believe the market is full of opportunity right now, with blood on the streets. Good luck, to all. Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:SPYLong
by IvanLabrie
4
XAUUSD: The bottom in gold is nearWe might get some more downside next week, but I think we'll see a sizeable bottom in gold very soon. Only a matter of days. If you want to go long, wait for prices under 1200, I think this would be enough to wipe out all bulls and hit a sentiment extreme, causing a bottom. I expect commercial hedgers to go flat, or net long again when this happens as well. That would be a great confirmation for the long. Risk can be a drop under 1117.87 in the monthly, but we can get tighter stops from daily charts once we have the right price action to enter. Good luck, be careful, I'd rather not buy gold yet. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
BTCCNY: News key level updateWe have a new key level, courtesy of Bitmain's CEO, who decided to tweet about his support and potential funding of Bitcoin Unlimited, an alternative to Bitcoin Core development, which could cause a situation where there are multiple Bitcoin block chains, dividing the community. Naturally, this scared some bulls off, and we had a selloff, but I think it's just manipulation, like most news from China turn out to be. Probably colluded with some other groups, like OkCoin, or other exchanges (like BitFinex), they caused margin traders positions to be liquidated, due to the amplitude of the move during low liquidity periods. I'm long, as depicted in my BTC publications, and used this chance to add to my position, increasing it from 30% to 80% account. I'll trim once we have a sizeable rally, and hold only my core 30% position until we hit my long term targets. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
8
XAUUSD: 2-month downtrend analysisThe 2-month bars in gold show a very clear downtrend, and its dynamics. The 'Time at mode' technique shows us that bears drove the price down, after a distribution period of 16 months at the top, followed by a very sharp decline, which met the prognosticated target quickly, before stalling for another 18 months. The next decline wasn't as sharp, and we noticed that when the forecasted downtrend duration had ended, a massive rally started in gold. This happened to coincide with a spike in VIX, which as Tim West points out in his Silver charts, is a bullish signal for a bottom in metals. These two signals confirmed we had a bottom in place and higher prices could be expected from there onwards. The range highlighted in orange, created a secondary downtrend signal, while the second one in red was active, which had a smaller target range than the previous one. This points out to a potential terminal wedge ending here, an Elliott Wave formation indicating a bottom. Additionally, the 9 bar decline in red, which expired right at the bottom, failed to reach its target, so, it forecasted a rally back to the mode, the most frequent price range in the distribution period leading to the decline, which already happened. Now that these signals panned out, we are left with an unclear outcome, nothing can be gleaned from this timeframe, other than looking at the price ranges on the advance, which have become smaller, failing to confirm the momentum of the first big range bar at the bottom. To break the resistance zone between 1270 and 1322, price will have to absorb considerable supply from long term sellers, and to do that, it needs time, so my forecast here is for gold to remain sideways, possibly until hitting the uptrend or downtrend speed lines in red. We can look to play this range, following the smaller timeframe signals, like the one shared by Tim West recently, check it out in related ideas. Just don't get overexcited, expecting gold to go to 1500, cause it probably won't for at least a couple more months or more. 2 more months with prices not going under the lowest low here, would confirm the trend is now up too, but December's close would have to sit above 1263.37. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
USDARS: Next up leg startingI think it's fairly certain to see more upside in USDARS right away. If you own pesos and live in Argentina,it's wise to sell them for silver/gold/dollars periodically. Now is a good time. I reccomend splitting with a bigger weight on USD bills, due to gold and silver volatility. Right now, the trade favors dollar strength, so you'd increase your dollar holdings next. You can rebalance this portfolio periodically, or even go back to pesos, and use term deposits to earn interest while the Peso strengthtens (usually down legs last a 1-3 months). Good luck, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
BTCCNY: Update - Weekly trend intactBTCCNY is breaking above the recent key resistance generated by the news related to Chinese capital controls. It seems that the news were discarded as a rumor, and now investors have absorbed the selling, and are ready to bid prices higher. I'm holding a 30% long position now, since I doubled at 4918 and tightened my stop loss to 4870. My average entry is lower, so I'm holding a risk free trade, with a profit if stopped out. Target is 6555 at least, the retest of the Black Market Reloaded closing key level, or the weekly 'Time at mode' target at 7047.01. This could evolve into a longer term bimonthly uptrend as well, which is currently active, and implying way higher prices, so I will simply hold my position for as long as possible, only closing half of it at my weekly target zone, and trading around the core 15% long term long position from here onwards. You can see how the key levels and the 'Time at mode' analysis have been useful in trading this market, and predicting the turns, where to enter, where to add, where to place stops, etc. Review my previous publications for more information. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
11
EURUSD: Monitoring the declineEURUSD didn't hold the ECB key level support, and closed below it. If today's bar plots a daily HIGH above the 1.7490 mark on close, we might still have a chance to enter longs tomorrow, on a break of today's high, and stop under today's low. Right now, I'd reccomend waiting one session, and monitoring the activity as I describe. This chart depicts the ECB key levels, in light blue, solid lines, for the 2015 levels, and purple for 2016 levels. Thinner lines, are less significant reactions, which have lower probability of affecting price action. The dashed lines show the Brexit, Jackson Hole and US presidential election key levels, which coincide with the biggest VIX spikes this year. There is a weekly range expansion decline, so we have to remain vigilant. If price doesn't hit 1.05454 before December 5th, we have bigger odds of a reversal to the upside. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
XAUUSD: Timing a bottom in commodities...I think we could be about to see a turn in commodities again, but I'm still not entirely sure about gold. We can either rally from here, and don't make any new daily low, or break down, stop everyone out, and test the zone between 1200 and 1180, before turning up again. This would depend on how equities behave, and what the flow of fundamental events is this week, something I can't yet decipher the outcome of. You can buy a half position, if we break above yesterday's high, and if stopped out at yesterday's low, wait to reenter longs lower, or simply stand aside, and wait for a clearer signal, once we break above the previous 3 days' range. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
SPX: Text book time at mode signalsThe weekly signals are very clear and have been very precise in determining the direction, time duration of moves and the precise turning point when each move was exhausted so far. You can see that we took off, from 2016's low, formed an accumulation range, from that level we had a breakout, which as per the 'Time at mode' trend analysis logic, predicts a target for both time and price. Once the target got hit, the market can either form a new accumulation range, higher, for an equivalent time duration, or if it doesn't have enough steam to trend in this way, it returns to the signal mode, or accumulation range from where we previously broke out from. The trip back to it usually takes the same time that the uptrend duration had, as a possible time duration for the rally. The SPX chart is crystal clear in this regard, and we can see that it obeyed all the 'Time at mode' rules with precision, giving us great trades if we're brave enough to take them, even while going against the majority of traders. Now, that we have landed on support, we had a massive bull run, that managed to break above the 'distribution range' from where the decline took off, crushing and trapping all bears, margin shorts, and traders who were sitting on the sidelines, sitting in piles of cash until the elections, or before, due to 'poor valuation multiples', bad weather, crude oil's decline, ISIS, Trump, Brexit, Deutsche Bank fear, etc. All this negativity reached the zenith here, and we had enough 'despair' to form a bottom. Since we broke above the downtrend mode, the aforementioned distribution range, prices can now proceed to fulfill the downtrend's range target, but to the upside, giving us an intermediate term target at 2228, where I expect prices to stall for some time. If we don't stall, we'll see a continued rally, possibly hitting 2500 in the longer term. For this to happen we need another big fundamental catalyst, else we'll stall once the target is hit, which is the more logical outcome here. Conclusion: stay long, specially if you bought below 2100. There will be plenty of opportunities in undervalued companies too, so don't miss mine and Tim West publications, contact me for information on the signals service, or mentoring, and don't forget to check out the Key Hidden Levels chatroom for some free market commentary every day. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500Long
by IvanLabrie
2
NZDUSD: Potential turning pointNZDUSD is at a good support zone, and could turn up from here, following gold, which is very oversold. I'm waiting to enter long here, I'd like to see how today's bar acts, to buy into strength going forward. You shouldn't rush into gold or NZDUSD longs right away, but, should monitor how today behaves first. The negative news surrounding New Zealand serve as an extra ingredient, to give us enough bearish sentiment for a bottom in here: www.bloomberg.com Live cattle and milk futures remain bullish, and gold might be about to bottom after stopping out longs and making perma-bulls give up, hopefully, very soon. If you want to learn more about the trade entry, and risk management, contact me via pm. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
4
INTC: Great correction to buy more or enter for the first timeINTC gave us a nice correction after the earnings report, sending it close to support at 34.90 and also landing on the lower deviation of a linear regression channel that I started from 2016's low, and anchored the other end to the highest high on October 10th. The new Key Earnings Level should act as a magnet propelling prices back up to 36.50 quickly. Once we break above it, and start moving up again, price will resume the long term uptrend. Check related ideas for more information regarding the trend duration, targets and more. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by IvanLabrie
1
EURUSD: Neutral long term stance, potentially bearish long termIn this chart I show you the time at mode signal active on chart. Currently, there's a 6 month timeframe downtrend that demands price to hit 0.91505 by May-July 2019, or sooner, and a 2 month signal that is very close to confirming. Confirmation for this signal can come if we hit 1,07422 during October, or if November-December closes with a high that is lower than 1.10971. There's a kicker here though, the RgMov indicator -which plots a visual representation of investor sentiment, obtained using a proprietary calculation developed by my mentor, Tim West- is showing a deeper decline than the one observed on the previous bottom, which could be a bullish signal, if we get further confirmation, or simply an increase in bearish sentiment. If we don't see 0.95047 hit during the next 2 months, this would constitute a bullish signal on close, and I could envision this happening if the Fed disappoints the bears by not hiking interest rates on the December FOMC meeting. For now, I'm flat EURUSD, but I have long positions in USDSEK, USDJPY, USDCHF and USDNOK. I'll be monitoring the progress in the dollar to either hold my trades anticipating the lofty long term targets seen here, or, look to flip long if we get reasons to do so. The best thing is that we will get a big long term signal within 2 months. Stay tuned for updates. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
USDMXN: Fading the irrational rally, viva Mexico!This morning I bought an $MXF stake at the open, and shorted USDMXN at 20.0022. I think we might be in the presence of an 'ending diagonal triangle', or terminal wedge, in Elliott Wave parlance, in particular according to the Neowave rules. If that's the case, we will a see brutal rally in the Peso, sending USDMXN down to 16.43 in approximately the time the arrow indicates on chart. My clients are long MXF but not in the USDMXN trade, it is a higher risk trade, so only take it if you have higher risk tolerance and don't risk over 1% on it. The initial move in equities and the peso made absolutely no sense in my opinion after discussing it with Tim West. We've been buying on weakness today, along with my clients and the people over at the Key Hidden Levels chatroom -and with great results if I may add-. Apparently Carl Icahn tagged along, buying a neat 1 billion worth of stocks today. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
7
AUDUSD: Breaking above the rate cut key levelAUDUSD is set to start accelerating as the massive long term accumulation pattern leads to a rally of monthly scale here. If not long, jump in now with 0.5% risk. Your downside risk is 60 pips give or take, for aggressive traders, and a drop back to 0.76 for more conservative long term positions. Once we move above 0.7350, we'll have further confirmation that the long term rally I predict is underway and we can expect prices close to 0.84 to get hit. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie