BTCCNY: Weekly uptrend signalBTC is about to confirm a weekly uptrend here, after this week's close. Unless something strange happens and price suddenly drops under 4310 cny, we can expect the signal to trigger an uptrend to 7047.01 give or take, to be reached within the next 8 weeks. I reccomend holding a 15% spot long position, if not already in, you may go long gradually as price drops next.
If not long, or, if you booked some profits like we did, higher, we can enter longs again, if we get a dip to support, between 4600-4700, risking a drop under 4500. The uptrend would still be valid if price retested 4310, but it would make this intermediate term long fail, and postpone the start of this sharp rally we foresee here.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Rgmov
USDJPY. Short, intermediate and long term projectionThe USDJPY pair is tracing a strong long term reversal in my opinion, and here we have an opportunity to join the trend with minimal risk. You can go long at market, using the long term stops on chart, close to 101.2, or, take a buy stop order at 104.703 (good for the day), speculating that Kuroda's speech will take care of triggering this daily uptrend, with stop at 103.789.
Targets are on chart, good luck if you follow me on this trade.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
December 2017 Oil: Interesting time/price target spottedI'm looking to go long the December 2017 contract if we hit the target specified on chart. I'm not detailing the money management or the trade plan here, I reserve that to my clients, but we could certainly see a bounce very soon, but we need a flush of weak longs to achieve sufficient negative sentiment for a bottom.
I was expecting a faster rally, but that thesis changed when we dropped under the short term uptrend speed line, creating a failure in the daily uptrend, which prompts me to think price will go down until we hit the target on chart, then reversing course and resuming the long term uptrend, eventually reaching the targets on chart.
Keep an eye on this chart, you will soon get a low risk long opportunity if you're vigilant.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
CEF: Options expiration support heldGo long on a breakouf of Friday's high, stop at Friday's low minus 1 tick.
If we break above 13.73, we could see long term uptrend continuation.
CEF is a good addition to your portfolio, you can read more about it here: www.centralfund.com
It's a closed-end fund, which offers a good alternative for low-cost investment ownership of gold and silver bullion.
CEF is 31.13% up, YTD, and 6.53% up relative to S&P500, YTD.
I'd favor it over GLD and SLV.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
WDC: 2nd chance to join the uptrendAs you can see in my previous publication, we had a great opportunity to enter longs starting the year. Now we have a similarly great opportunity at the end of this correction here, and close to earnings support.
The risk is the earnings report still pending, so start by buying a 0.25-0.5% exposure long, with $5.61 downside risk from here. I wouldn't use a stop loss.
Then you can complete the position over the course of a few days, with more information after the new Key Earnings Level is formed here.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
GBPUSD: Fundamentally weak, structural shortWe had covered our previous short for great profits last Friday, and we're now looking to rejoin this downtrend.
It's safe to short any rally, or to short if daily prices go to 1.24795 or higher.
To make sure we're in, we can divide our entry in 2 or 3 parts, and just take a smaller entry at market open, splitting risk equally between these positions*. It appears like we can expect the Pound to selloff further, so, any sign of strength is a short for us, given the pending 'time at mode' price target on chart.
I added 4 predictions, based on the key levels and speed lines, as well as the price action. If we gap down, we could expect the red path, if no gap, the black one. If we gap up, the green path wouldn't suprise me. I'd have to see what the positioning looks like for retail traders after this shock. I'd guess all longs have been stopped out by now. Before this, we had like 85% longs according to FXCM's SSI tool. A sideways path would frustrate everyone, until they'd start looking for longs again, and then, we get the big drop again.
This is just a guess, but, you can estimate the reaction when we approach the speed lines and support and resistance levels on chart. If you want to learn more about these methods, contact me privately.
Good luck,
Ivan.
PS: I'd reccomend using the weekly stop for all entries.
EURUSD: Long the short term pullbackEURUSD landed on the weekly uptrend support, from where most rallies took off. We can enter longs here, we might get back to the top of the Brexit range, unless the dollar gets a major fundamental boost by December. This could be a very good intermediate term trade if we're not stopped out.
Go long on a break above yesterday's close.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
PAAS: Go long on strengthWe have a nice chance to enter longs in $PAAS here, if we break above Friday's high, we'll have a chance to retest the resistance above, as the arrow indicates. Risk is a new low, so the stop is really tight.
$PAAS has some of the biggest mines, and low operating costs, although still not profitable, so, it's not suitable for longer term investment unless you size it below 5% of your account. Here, the tight stop is ideal for a swing trade, but not for long term trades, and since I think it's likely to have sideways price action in metals, for some time, this is the type of trade I'd like to take in the sector.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Short book: HYG - Topping patternToday we added a couple shorts, I'm posting the trades we currently have open but not providing entry/stop suggestions. Only trade them if you have a trading strategy, or, ask me if you're interested in learning more about the one we use (Tim West's 'Key Hidden Levels' and 'Time at mode').
We have some worrying bearish signals, so it's a good idea to have a market neutral position, picking stocks to short, while still looking for longs in undervalued companies.
See related ideas for the rest of the trades we took. You may still be able to join them or wait for a secondary entry when/if we decide to add to them.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Short book: MU - Topped for now, short towards the 13 handleToday we added a couple shorts, I'm posting the trades we currently have open but not providing entry/stop suggestions. Only trade them if you have a trading strategy, or, ask me if you're interested in learning more about the one we use (Tim West's 'Key Hidden Levels' and 'Time at mode').
We have some worrying bearish signals, so it's a good idea to have a market neutral position, picking stocks to short, while still looking for longs in undervalued companies.
See related ideas for the rest of the trades we took. You may still be able to join them or wait for a secondary entry when/if we decide to add to them.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
PBF: Potential start of the up move herePBF has a solid setup here, it's bound to breakout above the highs soon, so we can start buying gradually until it shoots up.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
USDSEK: Long term explosion pattern triggeredWe can enter longs safely here in USDSEK, this is potentially the final chance to catch this massive uptrend.
For the long term position, a wide stop is important but we can take a swing trade risking a stop at a new daily low under today's loww as well, additionally, but you will have to trail stops more aggressively with this 2ndary position.
Risk a total of 1-2% on the whole thing.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
AUDUSD: UpdateIn my previous publication I had signaled a good spot to go long AUDUSD, based on the support level that was tested, after breaking out of a linear regression channel, and landing on a VIX generated support zone.
Commercial traders have been a reliable source of information so far, and you can read my analysis on the subject in the previous post. I have part of my position still running, and I'm looking to take short term trades on the way up.
For now, AUDUSD has broken above all resistance levels, except for the top of the Brexit range. Ideally, we need tomorrow's bar to stay above this level on close, confirming the breakout of the range, and then proceeding to rally above the next level, the top of the first rate cut date's range, which triggered a massive decline in the Aussie back in May.
I'll add the short term view in the comments below.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
XPDUSD: Monitoring the declinePalladium has an interesting chart, and bullish potential. Right now there's an active 'Time at mode' signal which points to a 7 bar decline which is already active. The time and price target implies that we will see 600.556 hit by November 3rd or sooner. If that doesn't happen, we get a bullish signal.
There's already a bearish failure, since bears didn't manage to replicate the range of the decline that happened 3 days ago, so it's likely to see a reversal here.
Keep an eye on it. I'll update it once it's safe to go long.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
ABMD: Reenter longs at maket, potential for 24%+ upsideABMD has expanded the monthly range down and is at a very strong support zone here, hitting a high volume level, close to earnings support and the yearly SMA.
We can enter longs risking $14 downside, and aiming for $30+ upside.
Each time we expanded the monthly range down, we had higher prices in the next 3 months, on close, from the monthly close (which now is only 2 sessions away), 9 out of 10 times since the 2009 low.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
NEM: Strong fundamentals, solid uptrend in placecNEM has a nice setup here, I just swapped my $ABX shares for $NEM here. Risk is $2.53 per share here, and upside is modest, until we break the earnings resistance above, but the entry is pretty safe now.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
ABTL: Potential weekly uptrend, heavily accumulated stockThis stock is an example of a great mid cap stock to own. Valuation is just right around here, and there's a chance to confirm a weekly 'Time at mode' uptrend signal, which would imply seeing upside to the 22 handle or so.
Technicals show a strong accumulation base, with the RgMov trend analysis indicator surging, showing hidden strength in the background.
Downside risk is only $1.46 from entry, if buying at market open next week, giving us a 3.29:1 trade, not too shabby.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
BTCCNY: trading plan updateDear followers, we have a good and fundamentally backed uptrend here, both boosted by the Winklevoss ETF, and Chinese investors fleeing from China as the PBOC might go with stricter controls in the near future.
Price action, and fundamental key levels favor the advance, as well as the 'Time at mode' and RgMov signals discussed before.
We can add to longs once again, in roughly 7 hours and 40 minutes from now if we get a dip, using a stop at 4400.
We will risk 1-3% on it, and move all current stops higher to that price as well after this time elapses.
I'll update the chart with further instructions later.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
FTSE100: Breakout to the upside inminent, wait for fundamentalsWe're at a make or break level in the Footsie, it has to break to the upside soon, or else we'll see a pullback and lower prices, or a stall in the uptrend and simply more sideways activity.
Right now, you should be flat, but breakouts to the upside can be bought with tight stops. Until fundamentals are out of the way, breakouts might not last, on either direction, so it's probably better to stay put and do nothing for the time being.
Sometimes no trade, is the best trade.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
SCTY: Breakout is comingWe can long SCTY here, I think we can expect a breakout very soon.
Risk 0.5-1% on the position.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
BTCCNY: Go long in 4 hoursWe can enter long positions in BTCCNY, with stop at 4157.42, in roughly 4 hours from now.
Risking 0.5-1%-2% is fine here. If we quickly go back above the green line on chart, we can expect a sizeable move to the upside. This could be a nice stop hunting decline for sure.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
BTCCNY: Analysis update - Uptrend's solid, need further proofI'm currently holding 15% of my capital in non-leveraged long positions in BTC after closing my leveraged longs for a nice 2.5:1 profit, or 10.375:1 if you factor in the floating drawdown while holding it.
I reccomend holding if you're long, you can book some leveraged positions, but don't sell BTC you own, unless it exceeds 80% of your Bitcoin trading capital. Between 15% to 80% of it, exposes you enough to profit from the rally, without having too much risk.
We have a great rally here, we broke the Brexit resistance, we broke above the previous downtrend mode, the level where bears and bulls battled for an extended period of distribution, where eventually the bears won, pushing prices down sharply. The drop, on the back of fundamentals, didn't cause major technical damage, so it was clear the trend is largely still up. We did buy BTC a few times so far, but mostly swing trades. We can now hold for longer term, since we have more confirmation that the trend will resume to the upside, showing new highs in the weekly/monthly.
If you're not long, you can gradually build a 15 to 80% of your capital position here, buying it over the course of a week or a month. If trading with leverage you need to wait for the next shorter term setup, but right now, it's possible that market makers want to scare off retail longs, so we can get a retracement during illiquid periods. Just focus on this: we want to see a daily low, or a 3 day timeframe LOW, sit above the 4402 mark, ON CLOSE. I can't stress this enough. Once we see this, we'll know with certainty that odds favor bulls, and that we can see prices well above the previous high in the future.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
AUDUSD: Add to long term longs, nice short term opportunityAUDUSD has a very bullish long term, intermediate term, and short term chart.
We can add to our core positions, if we make a new daily high. We can also take a short term trade once that happens, with a tight stop at the previous daily bar's close. Target is roughly 0.77 for the short term position, and over 0.8350 for the long term entries.
Long term positions were entered earlier, and recently averaged at lower levels, refer to my previous publications.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
