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Rgmov

EURUSD: Short term viewWe're examining the 30 minute timeframe, showing data from last week here. We have a line showing the open to open trayectory of each day, with prices above this line, labeled in green, and below it, red. This shows us how each day's activity impacted sentiment, despite making a mostly sideways path, eventually closing up for the week. We had a dramatic shift in sentiment, between Thursday and Friday, with the bulls emerging as clear victors. I anticipate a rapid acceleration of price, hitting the target on chart initially, before any kind of retracement is likely. So, as a short term trade, additional to the longer term entry we took on Friday, we can add to longs on a break of 1.12506, with stop at Friday's close minus 1 tick, aiming for 1.13164 to exit. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
EURUSD: Euro and inverted Euro, how to avoid bias and some tipsIn this chart, I'm looking at the Euro and an inverted Euro chart, to help me determine if I have a bias when trading it. Seeing the bottom chart, I feel it is a long here, specially since we're breaking out above an inside trendline. You can refer to my analysis in related ideas. I also see a short in the inverted chart, with Friday's action being quite decisive for me, when seeing this chart presented in this way. What do you see in these two? Ask yourselves this question also: what is the stupidest trade to take right now? Of all the instruments you follow...what would be the trading idea, that would make you laugh and mock whoever presented it to you? Let me know what you think, we can benefit from asking ourselves questions, and others, and thus, enrich our trading view. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
GBPUSD: Fighting my biasI don't want to long the dollar right now, and many of my trades are centered around strength of commodities, oil, equities, so a dollar long, pretty much would rain on my parade. Now, I also don't want to be exposed to strongly correlated trades only, and not diversify, and I definitely don't want to trade with blinders on, and avoid taking good trades due to my personal biases, whatever they might be. So, I play Devil's advocate for a bit here, and try to decipher the GBPUSD chart. I'm looking at the GBPUSD and inverted GBPUSD weekly chart here. It appears like relative strength has been bad for the Pound and recent news about the Brexit 'implementation' have hurt Pound bulls considerably, making the bullish technical setups we had fail. I see we have a weekly time at mode signal in play, a weekly range expansion bar, and a huge downside (or upside target in the case of the inverted Pound chart). I'm sure this is a stupid trade, so probably, it a good one to take. What are your thoughts? Leave your comments behind. Good luck if you follow my idea. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
4
ZC: Corn has a new potential uptrend signal hereLet's add to longs at market open, there's a chance a second 'Time at mode' signal confirms on close here. Move all stops to Sept. 12th's low, and open a 1% risk long, if we don't retest the new entry stop on close, we can expect a rally to 364'6 by or before October 25th. We should see a strong rally from here, and at least 3-4% more upside, before a pause in it. This is an example of the type of work we do with my signals group, so if you're interested in a free 1 week trial, message me. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
CBOT:ZC1!
by IvanLabrie
USDCNH: Potential long term topWith oil rallying, and China soon to be accepted by the IMF, to include the Yuan in the SDR currency basket, the technicals in this chart suddenly look very good to me. You could go short here, with stops above yesterday's high to begin with. The currencies not affected by today's fear spike due to Deutsche Bank's shock were: the Euro (surprisingly!), XAU, XAG, CHF, CNH, so, we know these are relatively stronger (same as oil and other commodities). Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
3
EURUSD: Alternative scenario, what if DB isn't a Lehman moment?Go long EURUSD above yesterday's close here, stop at today's low. The sentiment has reached a negative extreme for the Euro and European banks, so it is possible that, as tim West rationalized, Deutsche Bank isn't a Lehman moment like everyone and their mother think. Risk 1% here, to make a very nice return if we're right, and everybody else is wrong. If not, tough luck, 1% won't kiss us. Technicals: RgMov uptrend Brexit Key level of fundamental support held Triangle here, but it can break up very soon. Inside trendline above price, big trendline above it. People would be shocked with rallying EURUSD. Monthly mode in EURUSD, time at mode signal could kick off, and follow the rally in commodities. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
Germany: 43 cent per share risk shortThis is a very, very tight stop loss short setup in the monthly EWG chart. If it confirms (which it might, due to the Deutsche Bank impending collapse), we could get confirmation during October. We'd need price to stay clear from the 26.10 mark for the whole month, so we could use a stop at 26.11 without a problem here, or just trade it with options instead and exit if 26.11 is breached. Interestingly enough, the SPX chart has a big uptrend that confirms if during October, we don't retest 2100, so, maybe we have a huge pair trade there: one fires an uptrend, the other a downtrend? That would be a tremendous trade... Good luck, hopefully they sort this DB problem without triggering a systemic crash, and if they do, we will be prepared. Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:EWGShort
by IvanLabrie
XAGUSD: Weekly uptrend and quarterly analysisThe weekly chart is largely bullish, and we also count with the quarterly 'Time at mode' signal that implies that price can reach 32.316 by July 31st 2017 or sooner, after the downtrend that started on April 2013 expired. I am long, and placed a tight stop as signaled on chart. If we get this right, it's a massive home run trade, so don't miss it. If you're not in yet, it's not too late to join. Risk 0.5-1%. The idea is that Silver held the uptrend speed line in the weekly, and we had massive buying volume when doing so, and a weekly oversold buy signal, courtesy of the RgMov trend analysis indicator. Now, with a 10 week level on close, the market is ready to launch higher from here after next week action confirms it. The fundamental backdrop further confirms this idea, but we'll have to wait and see. Like any trade this can fail, but if it works, the reward is well worth the risk. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
Commodities: Oil leading the pack and an interesting spreadWe have an interesting setup here, with oil suddenly breaking up above weekly resistance, and outperforming precious metals, I think we might see a shift in positioning towards oil, and a few laggards that show an increase in commercial long positions for some time according to the commitment of traders report. I'm watching oats, rough rice, soybeans, corn and wheat here. Powerful trends look to either stall, or shift down, like the ones in silver, gold, orange juice, sugar, coffee...If everyone already bought and is in positions, who is left there to buy and bid it higher? Right now, my focus is seeing which commodities moved up for the day yesterday, and then examine the individual setups. I'll post the ones worthy of attention, but meant to publish this as a heads up. You can read the tickers and the color code on the top left corner. Feel free to leave comments below. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
2
SPX500: Confirmed time at mode signalWe have a confirmed daily uptrend signal in SPX, so we can expect a move to reach the target on chart within the next 7 bars after today's close. I want to see if today's low stays above the former resistance levels we broke, and if we cross the resistances above as well. It might take a couple days to do so, logically, but I think odds are really big that we get a sizeable rally in all equities for a while. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500Long
by IvanLabrie
6
USOIL: Sideways for 1-3 months or moreBullish bias on this one, we can accumulate longs at the bottom of the range. Considering the high cost of holding longs in Oil, you could play short term swings as well, but I'd reccomend closing longs partially at the top of the range only, in case we do get the breakout of the monthly resistance to the upside. This could lead to significant gains in oil prices during this year, or next year. Right now, the scenario is as follows: sellers stepped in on Friday, we have OPEC news on the 27th, but fundamentals favor dollar weakness going into year end (and maybe even longer term than that, judging by the Fed's inability to hike rates, and maybe even consider negative rates in the future). Technicals tell me to wait for 3 more bars, and then enter longs if there is a loss of bearish momentum. I'd buy above the day open on day #3, risking a drop to 42.69, and then adding on close, if day #4 moves above the previous day close. If 42.69 is hit, that poses a more serious threat to the bottom of the range being the 42.30-42.70 zone, but in the big scheme of things, it could pave the way for an oversold dip to manifest itself, giving us a buy signal on strength. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
2