RHM
Stock of the Month: Vertex (VRTX)Our portfolio is up by more than 15% in the month of November. We are strictly following Mark Minervini's Trading Methodology. Here is a quick summary:
Mark Minervini's trading methodology, often encapsulated in his SEPA (Specific Entry Point Analysis) system, is a comprehensive approach to trading that emphasizes the importance of timing, risk management, and stock selection. Here’s a concise summary:
Trend Template: Minervini looks for stocks in a strong uptrend, using specific criteria for moving averages and price action to determine the health of the trend.
Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP): He identifies stocks undergoing a VCP, a series of tightening price consolidations which often precede a significant breakout.
Risk Management: He sets strict stop-loss orders to limit potential losses, often using a maximum risk threshold per trade to manage overall portfolio risk.
Buy Points: Minervini waits for a proper pivot point before entering a trade, ensuring the stock is moving on high volume out of a sound base pattern.
Leadership: Preference is given to market leaders, stocks that outperform the market with strong earnings growth, sales, return on equity, and profit margins.
Market Direction: He trades in harmony with the overall market direction, increasing exposure during bull markets and preserving capital during bear markets.
By focusing on these key principles, Minervini aims to capture significant trends, minimize losses, and compound gains efficiently. Remember, this strategy requires discipline, continuous learning, and the ability to adapt to changing market conditions.
Stock of the Month November: Vertex
Detailed Technical Analysis
Price and Moving Averages : The price of VRTX has recently experienced a bullish breakout. It is trading above all key moving averages (MA), including the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day MAs, which are aligned in ascending order—a bullish signal known as a 'golden cross'. The 50-day MA is often used as a short-term trend indicator, and its position above the longer-term MAs suggests a strong upward trend.
Volume : There's a noticeable increase in volume accompanying the price rise, which is a positive sign as it indicates strong buying interest.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD line is above the signal line and above zero, which is bullish. The histogram is showing increasing momentum to the upside.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is above 70, which typically indicates overbought conditions. However, in strong trends, the RSI can remain overbought for extended periods.
IBD Ratings: The IBD (Investor's Business Daily) ratings show a high relative strength rating of 93, suggesting that the stock is outperforming 93% of all other stocks in terms of price performance.
Bollinger Bands: The price has moved towards the upper Bollinger Band, which could signal that the stock is overextended in the short term.
Support and Resistance: The chart shows previous resistance around the $360 level, which appears to have been decisively breached and may now serve as support.
Candlestick Analysis: The recent candlesticks show strong bullish bodies, which confirms the buyers' control.
Price Targets: If you're using chart patterns for price targets, the recent breakout suggests a continuation of the uptrend.
Potential Risks: The overbought RSI readings could indicate a potential pullback or consolidation in the near term. Additionally, the elevated volume on up days should be monitored to ensure it doesn't start declining, which could signal a weakening trend.
Here is a link top our updated portfolio:
www.tradingview.com
Momentum, Growth and Innovation: RHMWe have just added a new position (RHM) to our 'Growth, Momentum and Innovation' portfolio with 11% of total equity.
Here is the link to our updated portfolio, which is up > 18% in the last month:
www.tradingview.com
Technical Analysis According to Minervini’s Principles
Trend: Rheinmetall's stock should be evaluated against the major moving averages. Minervini looks for stocks trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages to indicate an overall uptrend. If RHM is above these averages and they are sloped upwards, it aligns with Minervini’s criteria for a bullish trend.
Price Action: Minervini favors tight price action and volatility contraction. It's key to look for lower volatility and tighter price consolidation before the breakout. This can be seen in the narrowing of the Bollinger Bands or a decrease in daily price range. If your entry corresponds with a breakout from such a consolidation with a definitive move above resistance, this is in line with Minervini’s strategy.
Volume: Volume is critical in confirming breakouts. For Minervini, an ideal entry is accompanied by a significant increase in volume, indicating strong institutional buying. If the entry day shows higher volume compared to previous days, particularly if it is 40-50% above the average, it validates the trade entry.
Relative Strength: Minervini often emphasizes the importance of relative strength, especially in a weak market. If RHM is outperforming the market and its peers, that would be a positive sign.
Entry Point: A proper entry is at the breakout from a sound base pattern. If RHM is breaking out from such a base, ideally after a period of price contraction, and doing so on higher volume, it would be considered a good entry point.
Risk Management: Setting a stop loss is crucial. Minervini typically sets stop losses just below the breakout point or a recent swing low to minimize potential losses.
Background Information on Rheinmetall AG
Rheinmetall AG is a significant player in the automotive and defense industries. They are known for:
Defense: Producing military vehicles, weapons, ammunition, and electronics. They are often involved in large contracts with governments around the world.
Automotive: Supplying engine systems, pumps, pistons, and other automotive parts to the commercial vehicle and passenger car markets.
Market Position: As a leading defense contractor and automotive supplier, Rheinmetall has a strong market position in Europe and significant international presence.
Rheinmetall: Locked and Loaded 💥After briefly dipping below the turquoise target range of €245.60 to €228.40, Rheinmetall's stock price has rebounded into this zone. We now believe it has set the low for the magenta wave (iv at this point. Consequently, a substantial increase to €320 is anticipated.
The 1. Chapter of Rheinmetall2 areas marked (green rectangle) where i plan to buy for the long term. Not sure if those area will be reached with the current sentiment but i dont want to buy without a retrace.
+ aswell on a retake of the blue line as shown with the blue arrow
Targets:
Closing 20% of the position every 25% of stock increase
Fundamentals:
- Increase of military budget Germany + other NATO Nations
- War in the Ukraine
Rheinmetall bullish ascending triangleThe ascending triangle points to a potential increase in the value of Rheinmetall's stock. These indicators include a bullish trend in the stock's price over the past several months, positive momentum, and strong support levels. Additionally, historical data shows that Rheinmetall's stock tends to perform well during times of military threats or escalations, which may indicate that current global events could be contributing to the stock's upward trend.
Hopefully, the war in Ukraine will come to an end, but Rheinmetall is still looking strong, possibly indicating an upcoming real-world event.
It is important to note that technical analysis is not a guarantee of future performance and should be considered alongside other forms of analysis such as fundamental and news analysis. Additionally, it is also important to consider the company's overall financial health and any recent company-specific news or announcements.