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Inflation & Agricultural Prices - On the Rise Again Inflation is expected to rise again because the prices of staples such as wheat, rice, corn, and soybean meal have been increasing over the last two months. Additionally, we've seen a 20% increase in soybean meal prices since the low in February. Chicago SRW Wheat Futures & Options Ticker: ZW Minimum fluctuation: 1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50 Soybean Meal Futures & Options Ticker: ZM Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per short ton = $10.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by konhow
7
What does El Niño’s return mean for commodities?The El Niño weather phenomenon is back on the radar. A new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts that there is a 90% probability of the El Niño event continuing during the second half of 2023. What is the El Niño phenomenon? The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon with origins in abnormal variations in surface water temperatures in the Central and Eastern Pacific (Latin American coast). It comprises two opposing phenomena (La Niña and El Niño) that historically occur every 2 to 3 years. La Niña brings colder, wetter weather (lasts between 1-3 years), while El Niño brings warmer, drier weather (lasts between 9-12 months). Typical impacts of El Niño When El Niño starts picking up, trade winds slow down and the warm water near Asia starts moving back eastward across the Pacific, reaching the coast of South America. The drift in warm water also moves evaporation and rain such that southeast Asia and Australia tend to get drier while Peru and Ecuador tend to see more precipitation. El Niño typically picks up over the summer and shows its strongest effects over the winter in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the characteristics of the El Niño vary according to its timing and amplitude. World sees hottest July on record El Niño weather disturbances, which affect the entire Indo-Pacific region, lead to heatwaves and droughts. This is why the developing El Niño is likely to amplify the negative effects of climate change in Asia-Pacific, South and East Africa and the Americas. So, it comes as no surprise that large parts of the Northern Hemisphere have witnessed intense heat and devastating rainfall in the first half of 2023. July is expected to be the hottest month on record1; China set a new national daily temperature record in July and was hit by record-breaking rainfall at the start of August2. Large parts of the USA were also gripped by extensive heatwaves, with high temperatures in numerous places3. Canada experienced its worst wildfire season on record, as did parts of the Mediterranean. Implications for agricultural commodities The growing of agricultural products is sensitive to weather patterns. For some crops, El Niño could boost production, while for others it could damage production. Should the weather event intensify, it could be a significant catalyst for price gains in cocoa, soybean oil, sugar and grains. Meanwhile it could be price negative for cotton and coffee. We analysed prices of agricultural commodities over the past 11 episodes of El Niño’s, dating back to the 1960s. In 8 of the last 11 occurrences, wheat, soybean oil and cocoa traded higher by an average of 14%, 6% and 16% respectively, 6 months after the El Niño started. In 9 out of the past 11 occurrences, soybean oil and cocoa traded higher. Soybean oil benefits from tight palm oil supply In the past, El Niño has impacted the supply of agricultural commodities such as palm oil, sugar, wheat, cocoa, and rice. Based on the local weather agency Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi (BMKG)’s reporting, approximately 40 percent of Indonesia’s oil palm area experienced below-normal precipitation in June 20234. The BMKG also indicated that El Niño weather patterns are at weak-to-medium intensity and are expected to peak in August to September 2023. The shortage of palm oil tends to have a knock-on effect on demand for close substitutes such as soybean oil. This comes at a time when the escalation of attacks between Russia and Ukraine is also raising concerns on the supply of edible oils from the Black Sea region. Escalating tensions and the blockade of the Black Sea shipping routes are likely to aggravate the global edible oil and grain supply situation. Rice supply at the mercy of El Niño Dry weather has been threatening crops in the world’s second largest rice exporter, Thailand, with the country facing widespread drought conditions from early 2024. The government has already asked farmers to restrict their planting to just one crop this year. While monsoon rains have brought some relief to rice fields in parts of India (the world’s largest exporter), the country banned exports of non-basmati white rice5. Tightness in the rice market could have a knock-on impact on other staple substitutes, such as wheat. Cocoa benefits from tight supply The return of El Niño conditions is also supporting cocoa because the weather phenomenon tends to bring hot and dry conditions to West Africa. Cocoa growing is concentrated in Africa, with approximately 70% of production in the continent. Historically, El Niño has led to production shortfalls as the weather phenomenon leads to drier spells in Africa during key growing periods. This year, farmers in Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria have reported signs of black pod disease, which causes cocoa pods to turn black and rot. That could also affect the quality or curb the output of beans. The cocoa market is expected to be in a third year of deficit in the 2023-24 season which should keep cocoa prices well supported. Conclusion While an El Niño event is not guaranteed (it has less than a hundred percent probability), and the strength or the duration of the event remain uncertain, it comes on the heels of war which has caused significant disruption to the flow of grains and oilseeds. Inventories of many agricultural commodities (wheat, corn, soybean oil and cocoa) are trading below their 5-year averages, making it harder to absorb a production shock6. El Niño could, therefore, be price supportive for these agricultural commodities. Sources 1 Source World Meteorological Organization. 2 Source China Meteorological Administration. 3 Source US National Weather Service. 4 Source United States Department of Agriculture, as of 3 August 2023. 5 Source Indian Ministry of Consumer Affairs as of 21 July 2023. 6 Source United States Department of Agriculture, as of 31 July 2023. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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by aneekaguptaWTE
ZR1! Potential For Bearish DropLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZR1! is bearish due to the current price crossing below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 18.045, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 18.375, where the recent high is. Take profit will be at 17.285, where the previous swing low is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
CBOT:ZR1!Short
by VantageMarkets
ZR1! Potential for Bullish RiseLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZR1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Price is also along a bullish trend line. Looking for a buy entry at 18.050, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line and recent high is to ride the bullish momentum. Stop loss will be at 17.600, slightly below where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 18.530, where the previous swing high is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
CBOT:ZR1!Long
by VantageMarkets
Rice Futures ( ZR1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Rice Futures ( ZR1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 18.530 Pivot: 17.620 Support: 16.630 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZR1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 18.530, where the recent high is. Alternative scenario: Price could head back down to retest the pivot at 17.620, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZR1!Long
by Genesiv
Why Rice Prices Determine the Direction of Interest Rates?Recently, I received questions asking my opinion on their borrowing cost, if they should go for fixed or float rates. We somehow know there is inflation, but not exactly sure how long it will last and how bad it will get. Because higher inflation leads to higher interest rates. While I cannot advise them as I do not have a banking license to do so. However, I can point them to the commodity markets, I hope by doing so, it can help them to understand and read into the direction of interest rates with greater clarity. Background on edible commodities: Rice is a staple in the diets of more than half of the world’s population, especially in Latin America, Asia, and the Middle East. Annual production of milled rice tops 480 million metric tons, which makes it the third most-produced grain in the world after corn and wheat. An increase in rice prices or edible commodities, it will really add pressure to the existing global inflationary pressure. Hardship will be more intense especially compare to other commodities like crude oil. In short, people can still live with some inconvenience without cars, but not without food. Therefore, when food prices become much more expensive, the central banks immediate and urgent measures is to counter it by rising interest rates. Content: . Why edible commodities determine the direction of interest rates? . Technical studies . How to hedge or buy them? Rice Market: 91 Metric Tons $0.005 = US$10 Example - $0.01 = US$20 $18.00 = 1800 x US$20 = US$18,000 From $18 to $19 = US$10,000 If you are trading this market for the short-term, do remember to use live data than delay ones. Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CBOT:ZR1!Education
by konhow
Where's the Rice. Rice is an integral part of life in many countries, particularly the ASEAN region. It also plays a key role in the economies in the some of world's most populated regions. Countries like Malaysia have seen annual growth in exports of 6.3% annually over the last decade. Rice exporting leaders in the region, Thailand and Vietnam, have also maintained small growth in exports. Statistics show that the consumption of rice within the ASEAN region is also increasing. According to Ricepedia, 640 million tons of rice is grown in Asia, 90% of the global supply. In 2010/2011 China imported 540,000 metric tons and exported 500,000 metric tons of rice. Ten years later imports swelled to 800,000 metric tons while exports doubled to 100,800 metric tons of rice. I think getting invested in rice after its next big dip, whenever that is, may be a good idea. Being interested in the business of food I wanted to have a look at how Rice's price action has looked in years past. I did a little bit of wave analysis here. Let me know where you think we are. I drew the weekly Fib range retracement and found that a good trade on the larger time frame has taken place with the optimal entry fibs hit and target met. To get a better understanding of how price moved in the past I noted key Market Structure Breaks on this chart here. They help me find potential OBs and FVGs and potential areas of confluence. Here is the same wave count but shown on the weekly time frame. Overall I'm interested in the food sector as an area of investment. Rice was one of the first things that came to mind. Looking forward to doing more research on this. Let me know what you think!
CBOT:ZR1!
by CViewsTH
1
COMMODITIES - RICE ZR1 - Breakout ImminentLine of Least Resistance determined by Underlying Conditions in my Global Macro Campaign. Price Action Behavior suggests short attack taking advantage of sellers at previous breakout, to accumulate for next wave... which is building up quickly. I will know if my suspicions are correct at the median line. US-China tensions will make the supply scarce, and NATO + allies' free trade agreements are under pressure due to pandemic handling. I speculate a global shift towards domestic production, if not military tensions... Nations will most certainly need to stockpile food! Other Commodities of interest: Coffee: Wheat: Soybeans: Corn: GLHF - DPT
CBOT:ZR1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
Daawat (Long Term Strategy)Hi Everyone, Here is an interesting pattern update on Daawat , we can see Daawat has formed an Ascending Triangle . These patterns trend may be either bullish or bearish Two Scenarios for this pattern: 1. We need to see a price break above 55-56 with a volume accumulation and this confirms the next new high in the near future. The trend will continue to be bullish 2. Price Break below 46-48 with OBV going down along with selling pressure which tends to be bearish and should stay away Fundamentals: 1. Daawat is the No. 2 branded basmati segment in India and also has a global presence 2. Their majority of the revenue is from basmati rice selling both B2b and B2c. As we can see recently, the management is adapting to consumer needs and they are entering new segments within the rice category and trying out the needs of consumers with different range of products. Management expects the company to grow faster than the sector 3. If my guess is not wrong, they might become the next big FMCG company in the Rice industry through their forward integration strategies and this is the biggest tailwind for this company. 4. Covid-19 has given the company great tailwinds and the quarterly results speak for itself 4. Company has good cash flow along with reducing debt levels which is a good sign for long term For Investors: 1. It is always good to analyze the Fundamentals and buy the share, but it is always good to buy if all the odds are in your favor. 2. Fundamentals looking good, Technical set up looking good (Please see the Two scenarios), Long term outlook looking good 3. Company is a branded segment and No.2 in India and Basmathi segment 4. It is good to accumulate the share if it crosses above 55 and buy the dips during the US elections Initiating a Longterm Buy above 55 for a target of 70-80 in 6 months to 1 year Initiating to stayaway from stock below 46 Thank you and hope you are enjoying the analysis. Please do follow me for more updates, please like and comment :) Disclaimer: This is an educational Advice not a financial advice
NSE:LTFOODSLong
by skiranp
RICE FUTURES (ZR1!) Monthly, Weekly & DailyTrades made when the monthly, weekly and daily arrows are pointing in the same direction are the most profitable. Dates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low. The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates. One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades: For best results trade in the direction of the trend. The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30. When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered. When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered. This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts. This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
CBOT:ZR1!
by Dinjin