Richemont
#CFR Richemont Roars Back: Ready to 'Rumble' Up the Charts!Richemont (JSE:CFR) Breaking the significant down trending channel which has held price lower since July in a very controlled 'Fashion' (excuse the pun). The level we bounced from is the 50% fib retracement from the May 22 lows and May 23 highs. RSI and MACD has been building divergence for weeks where the indicators made higher lows which was not confirmed by price..
Putting this all together, I think we have a good trading opportunity to get long CFR here with a stop loss below recent lows at R2158, with targets at approx. R2500 R2600 and R2700 (200day ma).
Richemont breakaway gap for the downsideInverse C&H has formed on Richemont.
Before the handle formed, it made a Breakaway gap.
This is where the price stopped its current uptrend, broke below where there is liquidity that didn't fill, and then continued down.
Now gaps close 70% of the time, so we could get a spike up before the downside. But that would be for a conservative trader.
Other indicators show downside to come.
7=21
Price>200
RSI <50
Target R2,299
ABOUT THE COMPANY:
Origins:
Richemont was created in 1988 by South African businessman Johann Rupert. Its creation represented the spin-off of international assets owned by Rembrandt Group Limited of South Africa.
Headquarters:
The company's global headquarters is located in Bellevue, Switzerland.
Luxury Brands Portfolio:
Richemont owns several of the world's leading luxury goods companies, with particular strengths in jewelry, luxury watches, and premium accessories.
Their portfolio includes brands such as Cartier, Dunhill, Montblanc, and Van Cleef & Arpels.
Watch Expertise:
The company is known for its Swiss watchmaking brands like Jaeger-LeCoultre, Piaget, IWC, Baume et Mercier, Vacheron Constantin, Officine Panerai, and Roger Dubuis.
Global Reach:
Richemont operates in over 35 countries globally and sells its products in over 100 countries.
Richemont showing strong upside after unusual patternRising Wedge formed on Richemont with a prior uptrend.
And believe it, it's broken up. This is normally a reversal pattern that breaks down.
However, since the share distribution, the demand has been sky high pushing the price up.
7>21>200
RSI>70
Target R4,142
All the great elements of a rising trend.
Richemont shooting up since share distribution to R4,142 Rising Wedge has formed on Daily.
Normally you expect the price to break down as it's generally a bearish pattern.
However, as the trend is up, the wedge is up and the gap is up - signals strong upside.
The price has broken up, and we could get a bit of downside before the next move up.
7>21>200
RSI>70
Target R4,142
FUNDAMENTALS:
It seems like since the share distribution 1:10, investors are seeing the share as a valuable one to hold in long term portfolios, which is why they're buying the share up.
R3,400 is more attractive than a R340.00 share clearly.
We'll have to see how this one plays out
FUNDAMENTALS-Share Consolidation (Reverse Stock Split) RichemontOn 19 April 2023, Richemont went through a Share Consolidation (Reverse Stock Split).
That's why we saw the price move from R300 up to R3,027 (909%).
But before you get excited with whether you could have profited big time we need to remember what a Reverse Stock Split is...
What is a Reverse Split (Share consolidation)?
• The opposite of a stock split where
• When the company makes a corporate action to
• Reduce the number of its outstanding shares to its shareholders
• Which simultaneously increases the share price
• The shareholder will still have the same value proportional.
What happens to the par value of the share price?
A decrease in the number of shares means that the share price will go up!
Why would a company do a reverse spit?
The company might be under the impression that shareholders think the share price is too low.
So, they’ll cut the number of shares and increase the shareholder which will give the impression of the share price higher and more valuable.
EXAMPLE: With Richemont – 19 April 2023
SPECIFICS:
Share consolidation: Reverse Stock Split 10:1.
BEFORE: The share price was R300.00
AFTER: The share price is R3,027
No. SHARES OWNED: 100
AFTER CONSOLIDATION:
For every 10 shares you owned before, you now own 1 share.
So your 100 shares would be consolidated into 10 shares.
OVERALL VALUE:
BEFORE: 100 shares X R300 = R30,000
AFTER: 10 shares X R3,027 = R30,270
In this case, the value of the investment has indeed increased after the share consolidation but only marginally.
What just happened to Richemont? 911%!REMINDER: Compagnie Financière Richemont (CFR) is a Swiss luxury goods company that has a subsidiary in South Africa.
The subsidiary's depositary receipts and warrant receipts were previously listed and traded on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE).
However, starting from April 19th, 2023, these financial instruments will be suspended from trading on the JSE and relevant A shares and relevant A warrants will instead be listed on the exchange.
Hold your horses!
The 912% increase in Compagnie Financière Richemont (CFR) share price likely resulted from the conversion of financial instruments related to the company's South African subsidiary.
The company announced a deadline for the conversion of depositary receipts and warrant receipts, which resulted in the suspension of trading on the Johannesburg stock exchange and the listing of relevant shares and warrants on the exchange.
This process likely had a positive impact on the company's share price and resulted in the significant increase.
Richemont hit our first profit target at R205.65 Profit target 1 Reached for Richemont at R205.65
There is still a strong Bullish bias, but we'll have to wait for the next pattern to form.
The JSE Santa Claus Rally is premature but we are loving every second of it.
Let's hope it continues after a trying couple of months.
Double Top on RichemontA double top pattern has formed on JSE:CFR and it looks like it might be continuing downward. If it breaks through the low formed on 20 December 2021, the pattern will be confirmed and I think we could see a move downwards towards the 19000 support level. If it fails to break through the level, we could also see a bounce upwards.
Richemont finally breaks out of consolidation areaJSE:CFR has been trading sideways in a consolidation area since early Jan and it has really struggled to break through the resistance around 15000. With yesterday's price action it broke out of the top of the "buy-box" and it is looking promising for an upward move. This is a new all-time high, so, with no existing resistance in sight, if it continues upward, I would be surprised if it goes all the way to the 16000 level.
CFR - Backtest of doom?Looking at the Richemont, we may derive the following from the weekly chart:
1. CFR is at a notable resistance level where price has slowly started to reject the previous trend line. (The backtest)
2. We are seeing a correction pattern in play.
3. I am favouring a move to downside in the near future.
4. If the backtest holds, bears will bring the price down.
5. As always - maintain your risk management.
Let's see what happens.
Note: The views provided herein do not constitute financial advice.