GU WEEKLY breakdown .Going into next week we want to see this strong bullish move to the upside finish off and begin to look for reversals around 1.31864.
EMas have potential cross at this level previously making it a very strong bearing play along the 1.31885-1.32000.
any "noise" in this area will most likely trigger hard sells all across the board.
not to mention news for next week is medium- high impact mostly on USD .
Cheers and happy trading!
Richofpips
Dollar StrengthAs we were looking for decline on the DXY , bulls took over control. Here we go with my weekly analysis on the U.S. Dollar Index;
A (orange)( closed ) : Price clearly bounced on our bullish trendline. Blue area as been broken in the beginning of the week, my bearish bias was completely canceled. No break and no resistance, this direction bias is now closed.
A (blue) : Previously our plan C, I see the DXY showing some significant strength signs;
Blue area as been broken which was our resistance. Next area to watch for a break through is the yellow one.
Price bounced on the bullish trendline.
A nice reverse head and shoulder is forming, looking for a break of the neckline.
Price found support right at the retest level after the trend line breakout, red area.
Support found on both 50(aqua) and 200(gray) exponential moving averages after a bullish crossover.
A nice regular bullish divergence also indicates a nice trend reversal, highlighted by the purple arrows on data and indicator window.
Target is 96.00, optimal trade entry area for shorting.
B (red) : Fake bullish move to the yellow area and by dropping back resulting as a price ranging.
Only price action can determine those bias, even none of them could occur.
Bias as changed for now but still bearish overall, I am currently looking for bullish move on this index, driving all USD based pairs.
Dollar strengh = USDXXX UP / XXXUSD DOWN
Dollar weak = XXXUSD UP / USDXXX DOWN
Dollar Weakness continuationDecline situation in my previous DXY analysis was a success. There is the continuation of my DXY analysis;
A (orange) - Still looking for bears to take control. As long as we remain under the blue area, that will be our main resistance area for the week. Currently bouncing on a higher timeframe bullish trend line, I am looking for a break and a nice retest for confirmation. We might al Long term more down moves.
B (red) - Still looking for bears to take control. Same technical moves from plan (A). Long term big consolidation range within S&R area and further down moves.
C (blue) - As we might be into fake bearish move as mentioned in my previous analysis, we might starting the next trading week with fake bearish moves. Breaking throughout the blue resistance area and pushing the Dollar further up to reach and bounce off the bearish trend line , also on the highlighted S&R line. Pulling out the fibs on the weekly, this projection could give us an optimal trade entry based on the retracement.
88.4 is my long term bias for the US Dollar . Price action can only determine which situation could occur and even, none of them. This will help on the direction of all USD cross pairs.
Dollar strengh = USDXXX UP / XXXUSD DOWN
Dollar weak = XXXUSD UP / USDXXX DOWN
Dollar Weakness projectionBouncing off the previous high support area - which is now resistance, we might see the INDEX:DXY on a decline situation. Depending on price action, I made up a few price projection:
A (orange) - Starting the next trading week with fake bullish moves and look for shorts. New York sessions from Monday/Tuesday will tell a lot more. Price back too support, look for consolidation/accumulation and downside breakout. Long term more down moves.
B (red) - Starting the next trading week with the same as the same scenario as A; Shorts from London/New York sessions all week.
Long term big consolidation range within S&R area and further down moves.
C (blue) - Starting the next trading week with fake bearish moves trapping all retails into short positions and pushing the INDEX:DXY further up to reach and bounce off the bearish trend line, also on the highlighted S&R line. Pulling out the fibs on the weekly, this projection could give us an optimal trade entry based on the retracement.
88.4 is my long term bias for the INDEX:DXY . Price action can only determine which situation could occur and even, none of them. This will help on the direction of all USD cross pairs.