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Ridethepig

ridethepig | USD with the trump card!Will try to keep this one short and sweet.... a strong move from buyers here is decisive, sellers have given up their parry and have really been outplayed ... you should never be a slave to one side !!! The tempo is clearly in favour of bulls. The immediate threat is 114 with 118 above. Consider that above 118 there is very little in terms of resistance and will allow bulls to control all the way up till 150. A tactical fines, once thought that risk-off flows would be preventive, has been uncovered that USD is the ultimate haven and JPY is at a disadvantage. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming...
Long
by ridethepig
..an attempt to showcase the flatteningFlattening for the close. Getting a couple of questions re; flattening after the hints in previous idea, for those following 10s30s you will notice the test of 55/54bps is underway. ↳ The latest breakdown is implying we are at the minimum here in an ABC expectation leg towards support ↳ Inflation readings will be key to drive this one, this is signalling a dangerous environment for equities and risk in general going into September. ↳ To the other side, buyers will need to break through 11th May highs to call for reassessment in the flattening view.
TVC:US30YShort
by ridethepig
3
Further downside unlocked for GoldGold - The pendulum has swung in both directions clearing all of the soft hands. In July 2020 we were talking about the highs cooking for a couple of years as the price was not quite ready to explode in the ways that some thought (towards 5,000-10,000 or etc). Sure we saw a lot of institutional interest and activity levels are still high with risk leaving a damp smell in the air, however, the chart suggests that we have further downside to come. Technicals can extend as low as 1518 and still maintain the multi-year trend higher. I am actively looking to load more gold but at a lot lower levels, and timing wise most likely not until we have seen liquidations in in Q1 2022. Until then, my near term bearish setup is in play with all eyes on 1518 - 1509. Invalidation in the view comes with a breach of 'b' in this corrective fourth wave.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig
14
EURJPY itching to resume bull trendUpdates coming here after the Jackson week Bearish JPY and looking to play versus EUR . Actively adding here as the l/term uptrend is set to resume, we can look to target fresh highs here at 134.1x and continue to expect JPY to underperform in Q3 and Q4. Indeed the break is signalling in advance that the direction is still up. Price action above 129 is proving interesting, the break of 'B' will define whether there is a chance of another pullback or the move is direct and imply the base has materialised.
Long
by ridethepig
2
The "unlocking" of 150 for USDJPYSequences and corrections illustrating waves for those who are not holding any live positions from below the long-term swing is becoming increasingly expensive, invalidation is clearly defined below the 'B' at 101.4x, while taking October 2018 highs 'D' should be enough to "trip the fuse" and trigger momentum towards 125 and 149.3x a multi-decade ABC corrective pattern is at stake; this 'C' is a pragmatic demonstration of the lust to expand with a typical 5-3-5 sequence. Buyers had the move and played an exchange with the trap, which despite the length of the combination via covid in 2020, can be expressed in no other terms than; Buyers aiming to setup the ideal position (the cheapest tickets against sellers in an isolated ABC corrective sequence - see 2020 Macro Map ). I managed to carry out the deeply laid trap, (although Fed did refute a number of times) since Powell was finally handicapped via Jackson this week, I thought perhaps it is time for an update of my chart. Moreover, I know no other ending in which this precise swing for the "ABC" is more clearly illustrated than in what follows. This have proceeded as expected so far; Japanisation was already in play and the key idea was Yen dislocation. That has happened up till now and was done solely via risk however with the monetary side entering into play and tapering starting in most likely November, the path has been cleared for the king (dollhair) to receive inflows.
Long
by ridethepig
4
US Micro-Cap Breaking Out?Here in this position, it is clear that intensive work has gone into supporting the entire global recovery. Moreover, we could already count the resilience in credit as ideal results from the covid siege. But now I want to focus on the US and small caps in particular are getting to work and the advance is leading to a more palpable exhaustion leg and opening some of the wildest trades for 2022 and beyond. You can see this is not the same position in China or Hong Kong. In the short and immediate term, we are witnessing capital rushing to park in US assets as the ONLY alternative. The pressure to park capital in 'safe assets' which are not threatened by the nanny state in the Far-East, Middle-East, Russia and now to a lesser extent Europe while it remains hijacked via Schwab. This more or less exhausts the options that we have and has clearly pinned both the Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp: Sure the "migration of capital" from East to West is underway but the threat of US losing its hegemony is a multi-decade process. I will be looking to fade the highs in US Microcaps from October time to ride profit taking into Q1 2022 before we start chapter two. Interested to gage the interest levels for ETFs here, if there is enough we can start to establish some levels, calls, and invalidation zones for IWC together in the comments.
AMEX:IWCLong
by ridethepig
1
USDMXN updates after JacksonThe positional struggle, or put simple the slow siege from sellers back to the base is finally exhausting. Powell has attacked with a move several times the strength of the surrounding defence. USD will now maintain the pressure and birth of fresh strength will unlock the next leg higher in USDMXN. Since 2018 we have been tracking the explosion higher. The break of the ABCDE triangle with Covid has already been analysed several times, much rather talk about the significance of the next move. Well, it renders the precedent and totally immobility of MXN, Powell confirming the USD offer is starting to expire means breaking strong support is no longer possible. On the technicals we must be clear, the 18 handle contains not a little resentment but rather the ambitious dreams of forcing another move similar to what we saw in 2020, allowing our opponent into a false sense of security with a trap before capitulating as far as the eyes can see. The resistance to the topside is now mostly dead and buried. For those looking to buy, the goal above comes in to play at 22.3x and 22.9x as a ideal extension.
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | CNH Market Commentary 22.08.2021Buyers position marks (5) as a soft and temporary floor. Other events can cause the base to appear a lot stronger than it does, so the transfer of the attack from one direction to the other can be subtle, although not a matter of pure chance. It has been a relatively straight forward flow, but one that has not seen much light thrown on the subject thanks to noisy explanations. As can be seen in the charts below, @ridethepig was concerned at the highs. The said possibility of a temporary floor is much rather a natural profit taking move in the struggle against sentiment. A considered judgement about the perverse signally from PBOC and Xi ought to look something like; base at 6.35xx is strong support (after the powerful legs lower it is very sensitive). That is the real truth, we are inside a multi-year decline that could go a lot. lot lower, for now, we shall have to content ourselves with limiting adding short positions till we are back above (4) highs at 6.587x for another test of the lows in our current range (6.58x - 6.40x).
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | US10Y testing resistanceA timely update to the US10Y Yields chart as we approach key areas. The 1.35% pivot level in the very short term is our line in the sand and will define which battlefield we will play Q3 on. ↳ The waterfall lows from 2020 started the next five wave impulsive sequence to the topside, it will take years for the moves to unfold but critical to understand our long term direction (higher yields). ↳ Typically we will see ebb and flow, particularly in summer months. Now with 1.35% & 1.45% the key resistance areas defined and ready to monitor, all we need to track is for a sustained breach above as will imply buyers are in control and demand reassessment in the view that a base is already in . ↳ Here actively tracking for one more leg lower towards 1.00%, it should be enough to unlock the pressure valve in USD one more time before we see the next leg lower in global equity markets in October (more on this over the coming weeks). [/chart
TVC:US10YShort
by ridethepig
1
Copper into JacksonCopper: Market Commentary 23.08.2021 A couple of points to note here; we ticked the 161.8% extension which was our third wave target in our previous copper chart at the beginning of 2021. It always comes down to the same situation; an impulsive complex which can be called sound, but which has one sickly component. As we head into Jackson, according to the long term wave count we have the following two charts which distinguish the five wave sequence: So now buyers are a point up after sweeping the highs, they are in a position to take profits over the coming months and quarters and bring together their own herd again at 3.33x lowest play the fifth wave inside of our major third wave. So far we have done a good job of shepherding the flows in copper as all has been predicable on the technical side; here looking for 3.33x before a slingshot towards 5.50xx in 2023.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by ridethepig
1
Shorts covering quicklyThe evolutionary break of 1.260x unlocked the floodgates and buyers successfully captured the higher high. But the revolutionary attack would not be complete without capitulation and be as follows: 1. Taking 1.295x (there is no question of having broken above July 19th highs, since sellers have given up a lot of ground for it, will unlock a test of 1.331x as a minimum flow 2. Using 1.317x for reference. The idea behind this attack, as clear from this example, consists of forcibly clearing a way through the defences to unlock a momentum move. Here sellers themselves have to cover their positions, so that triggers the cascading and comradeship. All we need to concentrate our forces on, is attacking if above 1.295x, till then we can continue sitting on our hands in a neutral position if not already loaded from below. Amongst other things, we also need to consider the forcible breakdown in Oil to $57 which will can add fuel to the attack.
Long
by ridethepig
1
Buyers to move. Is the triangle almost complete?For the flows here, buyers are clearly in control and have been over multiple decades - although since 2016 we have been inside a compression range which looks set to blow later in 2022. Strong support comes into play at 23,500 which should be enough to cap the outflows before continuation in a bull market towards a measure 40,000 breakout target. ↳ To the downside sellers are itching to test 23,500 and it looks within reach. It is dangerous to step in till we complete the moves, because the eye of the law is on it. ↳ After 23,500 comes the slingshot attempt towards 40,000, which will likely be a Q222 story, as will also reinstate the secular bull market and allow gains in confidence to play an important part in capital migration from West to East. ↳ To sum up, there is the following zig zag in play; 25,000 (current levels) -> 23,500 (strong support) -> 40,000 (strong resistance) Of course on the fundamental side, the rocking of the cradle from the nanny state continues and we are entering into the final chapters of the handover. Naturally when choosing a map in equities you should take into account its elasticity with the currency and the threats it can deliver, highly recommend tracking the Chinese Yuan over the coming weeks and months for any signs of distress as we enter into strong support levels.
HKEX:HSI1!Long
by ridethepig
3
is everything rainbows, roses, and unicorns for India?The great mobility of capital in India has been known for some time. In the endgame however, valuations becoming overstretched, although a mere extra, is one of the principal actors. So we must consider unicorns to be developed as as necessary step in this battlefront and it is no surprises from a timing perspective. So we have the following charts: Nifty slowly approached the 12,000 level, and when arrived it brought together all kinds of unloading, more than enough for a hearty breakfast. Once more we consulted, this time with the price at 8,500, and this picture was intended to convey how after the penetration, we should typically look for a slingshot towards the highs in a 5th wave. Here we now have the proper moment to get into contact with the corrective swing. I am looking for an August/September temporary high that could last into Q1 2022, and so we can become a bit more enterprising with the next moves. Here eyeballing a correction from current levels, 16,500, towards the 12,500 support over the coming months and quarters. This is demonstrating profit taking as the big beasts and sharks book gains for the year, and bringing your portfolio to safety rather than anything else.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by ridethepig
9
USDJPY Market Commentary 12.08.2021A clean and simple setup forming inside the 110 handle here. Eyeballing a leg lower towards 109.2x with Yields leading. This is the 4th attempt from bulls to reclaim the 110 handle and take out 111 stops since July. The LT outlook is Strong Buy as depicted in the chart below, but the ST trend is telling us a very different picture, that we are not quite ready to complete the breakup yet. Expecting more ping-pong play within the range here, a test of will be more than happy with 109.2x, extensions below are possible but with JPY in structural decline, unlikely in my view. From a flows perspective, a break would be a weak move, though it involves a sharp threat of 111 then 115. The error is that buyers are over-extended and in the height of summer, it would have been much better doing something like protecting 108 and building a floor, on the other hand, sellers ready to march. 110 should be lost.
Short
by ridethepig
10
ridethepig | USDCAD Market Commentary 12.08.2021Looking for continuation to the downside here in USDCAD with an initial target of 1.230x, extended targets at 1.200x and stop loss at 1.260x. Also actively looking at deploying additional positions EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDSEK with the latent USD softness. This has potential for follow through in August. ↳ Technically we are approaching key resistance levels, with support already breached, the developments imply we are not oversold. here is a lot of room to attack below, expecting an accelerated move in the coming sessions/days.
Short
by ridethepig
6
the last mileHere we are tracking the ending of a 'C' leg in the 4th wave retrace (invalidation for sellers comes into play with 50,130 because it will mean the move is impulsive rather than corrective). Expecting sellers to step in here with risk storming the base for August, the next leg down would mean the lows are no longer protected via the meme prince. Elon now uncovered and exposed if we breakdown, we may witness the nuts being squeezed. In case of any doubts recommend reviewing the macro chart as flows are a lot clearer. A breakout on the log chart unlocked the impulsive 3rd leg where we ticked $50-60,000 which constitutes the necessary target. We are now on our way back to the original blockade via increased regulatory pressures.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by ridethepig
16
'Giant Panda' leaving a miasmaFurther downside possible, but looks short-lived while above 200MA and importantly 0.703x. A lot of noise from the region, with PBOC lifting the bid temporarily and clearing the way for the test of 0.703x. This is an important area structurally as those with a background in waves are tracking for the beginning of an impulsive wave 3 inside a major. Here looking to add bullish exposure between 0.723x and 0.703x, expecting 200MA to hold but a sharp spike is still open via inflation today...the cheaper the better if you ask me. Confidence in the view will increase above the (a) at 0.753x and indicate a strong base is forming. As always, start counter trend positions as a hedge, and then when it really starts working, swing for the home run.
Long
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | The base is fixedA quick round of illustrations to review the swings in euro... The idea of the swing; we are mapping bids and offers, no more no less. Two battlefields, the wings are what we attack on and the centre is where we begin to clear (into thrusts and etc). Lets start with the Yearly chart for our macro direction: Very clear the base has been attacked previously many times, lulling sellers into capturing before trapping them on the return. Eurobonds / debt mutualisation has fixed the base in 2020, covid was for Angela Merkel what Britain was for Alexander Hamilton. Now lets check the Monthly in Euro first and then Dollar: Both are very clear with direction and the developments that have arisen. The new weakness in dollar should be energetically got at while the exploitation of the risk on continues until all that is left in the endgame. We still have another few months of riding the pig and marching triumphantly forward before we need to review charts. On the Daily, 1.176x - 1.173x is acting as strong support. Buyers could overcome all their difficulties with a break of the volatility triangle/compression. Under no circumstances should buyers surrender while the lows are still holding. You can see how much damage is there to be done, clearly an expensive area to be selling into, while a cheap and open file to be buying into. To the topside, targets coming into play at 1.198x, 1.225x and 1.250x. Thanks all for keeping the feedback coming !!
Long
by ridethepig
7
Oil Strategy WeeklyThe main driver here appears to be the unwind in cyclicals and commodities as we see the brakes pulled in the inflation trade. In this sense, Oil itself tends to be rather immobile. And yet (for OPEC+ still has some vitality although diminishing) it is not rare to find the trigger for this will come in the display of an increase of considerable activity on the supply side!! From the previous posts and charts, the maps of elasticity are all very clear and we can see ourselves when its time to track for the appropriate shifts in policy. a) the journey towards the lows via contraction in globalisation b) from the monthly chart c) the positional yearly flows and blockade at 75 In this simplest of all positions, the blockading of cyclicals and commodities via inflation taking a short holiday; of course the storm will pass and we will see further exploitation of CPI and etc but all of that is not relevant for today's chart. Our highs appear to be set, time for the traditional bow to our boss at 75, greet our colleagues at 70 and head out fresh and rested for a trip towards 68 and 57. The seats are still warm, you have seen the flows here performed again and again. We are trading elasticity, and the effect on demand and supply as such. No more, no less.
Editors' picks
TVC:USOILShort
by ridethepig
40
GBPUSD Strategy WeeklyA very similar example here in GBPUSD: Sellers surrendering control; buyers are seeking to restrict the flows with a very bullish close above 1.390x. Both sides are now locked and loaded; Sellers are so compacted from the five months of consolidation (securing a breach of the top of the range is what we are tracking here). After the Daily and Weekly close above 6th July highs, the HH is in, and technical damage should have been done. Sellers have their blockades up at 1.402x/1.403x which is the next target (a poor entry and risk to reward if you are not already in from last week). I mean taking 1.402x/403x would make it very difficult for sellers to defend and also open an attack to the 1.425x highs. On the other hand, a breakdown of the range from sellers would mark a very aggressive high. Finding the correct side in these flows is of utmost importance. To recap as quickly as possible.... We are tracking for continuing pressure on the 'early' sellers, another squeeze with a final move back towards the 1.425x highs later in the year, before we see a lot of profit taking and capital flight back to USD in 2022.
Long
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals📌 REGN pipeline (with particular focus on the early stages) CEMIPLIMAB, REGN3767, REGN1979, REGN4018, REGN5458, REGN5459, REGN5678, REGN5093, REGN5713-5714-5715 and REGN-COV2 all have a lot of potential with particular focus around oncology. As can be see with GILD, the covid positioning has already moved on a lot: we are ready to play chapter II and REGN is a name worth considering for those looking to add single stock opps to their portfolio. Buyers are clearly exercising control here on the Monthly chart at $600. To the topside there is very little in-between here and $1,000 as the next big level. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
NASDAQ:REGNLong
by ridethepig
Double Bottom & SupportWith the 'surprising' threat on Dollar, it is rather easy to spot the flows here than one expects at first glance. The lust to expand in euro is perhaps the clearest of demonstrations of how things will follow for Pound and where the advance on this wing is not coming on the dollar side and those caught off-guard will be punished as we enter into summer months. The chain here demands little preparation, a breakout above 1.380x will send indications that the floor has arisen and put us back into the battlefield between our highs (1.422x) and lows (1.378x). This move from sellers is being nipped in the bud, the theoretical targets above are 1.403/1x which is our mid-point in the map, and, of course, the 1.422x highs. Prefer to be a buyer at these levels as long as 1.378x is holding.
Long
by ridethepig
8