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Ridethepig

Signs of homemade inflation a few months away...For those who have been following our previous idea (see related posts) you will already know we have been tracking this leg to the upside since 1200. We are finally starting to run out of steam for this initial leg and it is time to start looking for positions on the retrace. => Inflation will begin to return in parts of the world later in the year (homemade) ...assuming we can clear risks on the US & China trade front then the stage looks set for a test as low as 1225 before any further meaningful upside ... would expect this to begin happening with an earnings recession towards Q3/Q4 this year. Good luck to those on the sell side here, we are being aggressive with the trigger in attempt to outsmart the beginning of a very large leg ahead of inflation data next week from the US.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig
NZD shorts against JPY longs in a rising-rate worldWe have a few very important announcements coming during the European session today... Here we are starting to become more selective with AUD and NZD, both against JPY should see further downside as the rising-rate environment remains intact. => The RBNZ disappointed markets earlier in the week sending yields higher across the curve. NZD caught a bid for these flows, however we see this knee jerk reaction to be over and an opportunity to load shorts. => Any possibility of hikes from RBNZ has been pushed back well into 2021 and given the length of time between now and then, we have plenty of room to continue playing the downside in NZD. On the technical side of things a test of the two support levels seems a done deal and for those looking to add AUDJPY shorts to the basket too we have attached the related idea with our key levels. Initial targets found at 74.2 with our second target 72.7 within reach. Please continue your support with a thumbs up or comment and thanks for helping us continue to grow further. Best of luck.
Short
by ridethepig
Sterling Capitulation? ... a live example of the offside trap...we have a very interesting idea on the menu today for everyone. This is a very advanced environment and would recommend only those who are experienced to trade this swing position. => We are approaching steel resistance once more and it is time to get active on the sell-side in the UK. We have fresh headlines this morning from the political side attempting to continue selling the dream of a second referendum and attempt to remove no-deal from the equation. => Unfortunately for those in the UK this is nothing but political fairy-dust and we are set for a massacre ceteris paribus. Markets are positioned on the wrong side and we will need to see a meaningful correction here as reality kicks in and models begin pricing in a no-deal exit once more. => We are starting to build a position on the sell-side here, it requires nerves of steel and patience as the noise levels from the mainstream media are guaranteed to be extreme. => From a technical perspective, after the neutral session yesterday we saw Asia rally clearing the 200MA and trend line from September, this has 'opened' the door for a cluster of stops at 1.317 which is in the crosshairs. So how are we going to trade this ? => Well we are wanting to trade the exhaustion here when bulls start getting ahead of themselves and like football, begin to trap them offside . We see signs of a fresh top starting to form already and expect the stage to be set over the weekend via the political heads from the UK. => Support moves to 1.309 and 1.301, below here unlocks 1.294 and 1.288. Removal of this will trigger the capitulation which is what we are trying to trade here and unlock 1.23. Best of luck to all those who are trying to position for Brexit or who are already in this live.
Short
by ridethepig
4
EURCHF poised to push higher...Here we are remaining with our long bias, a view that has been with us since 2018. => Fundamentally, the SNB increasing in deposits suggests that the SNB have likely been keeping the EURCHF supported whilst volatility was on the move. President Jordan notably mentioned that the SNB is growing more concerned with market vol and the impact it is having on the CHF. => Here we can see the divergence implied from the options market and would suggest that EURCHF has room to correct higher. Those following our ideas already know we see the EURUSD breaking down and this will increase European volatility but we don't see this being enough to put upward pressure on CHF. I would also encourage you to check the USDCHF idea attached for a more detailed technical breakdown on CHF. Thanks and best of luck.
Long
by ridethepig
Value areas spotted in USDCADUSDCAD bears stepped in again at the 32.8% retracement of the fall from December implying that this is the first leg of a new flow to the downside. This implies that the time has come to start looking for value areas to book partial profits in this first wave down. Drawing a fib for the entire 2018 rally we can see 1.3127 (32.8%) is likely to offer some support. Removal of this is needed to reassert any downside bias and negate the possibility of a temporary bottom forming. If we break below 1.3127 (not expected this quarter) here can unlock the door for a move back towards the January lows at 1.3180. To the upside, resistance is initially seen at 1.333 and 1.337. Beyond here is necessary in Q1 to turn our broader outlook from sell to neutral. Our view remains that we will start to see some relief in the coming days as bears unwind their shorts and take profits off the table after a monstrous move this quarter. To put simply we have 1.336 capping the upside and support at 1.312 ... so a wide range with opportunities on the both sides if you can stay sharp. Best of luck all.
by ridethepig
2
Choppy waters ahead (AUDUSD)After the flash crash we have started to form another minor top which is attracting selling interest. Yields are in play again (see related ideas) and we see scope for another leg lower. The December highs will cap any upside as large funds are sitting there. Expect a test of the 61.8% at .6905 will attract some buyers. We now know AUDUSD has traded briefly under 0.70 in 3 of the past 5 years. So we should form a short-term base. Simply put we are set for some choppy waters, and this leg highlighted will offer inside range trading with opportunities on both sides. Good luck to those in this or looking for positions.
by ridethepig
1
Risk [off] coming soon...=> After completing the ABCDE triangle formation we widely expected with the flash crash we are almost ready to turn down once more. Markets have retraced almost 61.8% of the leg and here expecting 110 to cap any further upside. => This key resistance will attract selling interest and act as a barrier for any meaningful correction. => To the downside we can see support initially at 109.4 followed by 108.8... Anything further would unlock 107.9 very fast after the ladder was cleaned. => After the weak inflation data from Japan we may continue to chop around for the next week before resuming lower. Timing wise this will coincide with earnings season finishing and risk entering back into our theatres. => Best of luck to all those who are trading USDJPY..I know most are sidelined for now after the monster move we caught a few weeks ago (see attached ideas).
Short
by ridethepig
1
An update to our EURUSD roadmap after ECB yesterdayWhat are we updating here? => After a dovish ECB we can see the removal of some large macro support at 1.133 which implies the prospect of a fresh leg lower. => After the sharp fall yesterday we managed to close below the November uptrend and Early January low to raise the odds of this consolidation range resolving lower. => Here we are actively looking for areas of interest, and below we see support at 1.1269 ahead of a move back towards the 2018 low at 1.1215. If both are taken we unlock the scope for a retest of the 61.8% retracement at 1.118. => It is important to note that in our 'bigger picture' we see EURUSD moving higher later in the year so these areas are all going to encounter support and should hold as long as expectations for rate differentials narrowing remain intact. => Should we break below we would see a resumption of the bear trend that started in 2018 and the next key support comes in at 1.1143. => Resistance is initially seen at 1.1339 and 1.1425. Above here is necessary to see the market start to trade back within a range and improve odds of any meaningful upside. => Best of luck to those who are trading the ECB flows, attached you can find our macro maps and ideas for the coming quarters in Europe.
by ridethepig
2