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Ridethepig

ridethepig | Silver finding a floor?📍 Consider the following chart, which arose after the waterfall alerts triggered : As the main map, sellers now chose the ABC sequence, with profit taking already being done and sharp buyers also deciding to step in with an early attack. Continue looking to play longs to shake the reluctant sellers stops at the considered centre. It is no revolutionary idea, simply corresponding with the latest moves in Gold: Use 23.5x to build into, it does not look promising for sellers after the defence and their stops are clearly located at 26.0x and 28.9x. In other words: Buyers know their positioning is now weak and the base is secure. Of course other events can cause on base to appear softer than usual, so the transfer of newsflow around vaccines back towards a collapse in public sector confidence, is rather a natural weapon these days. As usual....Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by ridethepig
15
Silver - Continuation @ridethepig Silver Market Commentary 16.12.2020 => It was no struggle for buyers to take out the diagonal resistance. Then, what comes next is a paralysing advance. Should some sellers wish to continue holding once the initial targets are hit then we can see capitulation. This is a typical continuation flow with Fed which can be played here. The bid will advance from here and cannot be prevented in the short-term. This will now move with Gold and show bare the base of the retracement. The correct manoeuvre here consists of holding and working longs, enough to allow 26.0x (+10%) and 28.9x (+23%) above. Swing the bat and go massive when the positions starts working. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | India marking a major highA flawless call in Nifty (Indian Equities) from the highs before Covid to the lows and back up in the opposing direction. We should all have made a killing on India, the pseudo-classical school always considers technical analysis as inferior, however this is not the case. As a main theme, INR buyers now choose to load for 68-66 which is the new base for 2021. The decade ahead looks positive for India and they will start playing a considerably louder position in geo-politics for the coming years. We are talking about a -8% devaluation from current levels. You can ask, what about pips? Well... pips are for pipsqueak's ... this is macro trading, rather than struggling daily this judgement carries strength in the MT and LT and ought to sound something like "watching paint dry". That is the real truth which my models have discovered about this leg lower in USDINR. You will find further considerations of the Indian macro picture in the end of year wrap up and the 2021 maps coming in the following weeks. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | NOK for the Yearly Close📌 NOK for the Yearly Close Now comes the traditional complex NOK and SEK map complex. I have mentioned a number of times SEK was in a very good position for sellers, now NOK is joining the disco because it is unlikely that dollar can manage to force the defence. A very amusing chart, for those with a background in waves we are playing the breakdown on a 5 wave multi-decade flow ending. Here we are dealing with a remarkable position for sellers, a staggering -12% downside to go to the nearest support ....meaning the manoeuvre is intended to put pressure on our opponent as one might suppose with capitulation. Invalidation can be defined above the latent outside reversal. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | BRL for the Yearly Close📌 BRL for the Yearly Close This diagram illustrates the LT map for those in BRL and tracking Brazil for good opportunities into 2021. According to my INR maps, again a very similar cycle count which is decisive for profit taking: The BRL now has the attacking position at the highs after completing a multi decade 5 wave cycle from 1.50 towards 6.00. But here is the weakness, we are already seeing profit taking as the USD enters into a structural decline, we have yet to mention the advantage Brazil has with particular focus on the agriculture side. The correct ways to play this in equities also come from companies like $ALTA which was one of the first gold mining companies to capture the 2020 flows in Brazil. It is reaching an initial target to that in the expectations, now add BRL appreciation to the mix and you can see how we arrive at the 600% targets: A very good luck to those looking for opps in Brazil, the currency is not afraid of the flank attack and note anyway that you can capture value on Brazilian exports into countries like USD and MXN. Just note how nearest support at 4.63x is -10% from here and the extension below at 3.9xx is -23% from current levels, both are in play for 2021. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
5
BRLMXN | 2021 Grand Slam Trade📌 Another classical procedure can be witnessed here, the combination of fundamentals and technicals, of BRL and MXN, and a live example of an instrument finding a floor for the long run. This advance would (and of course I am considering) be worth attacking and having some involvement rather than laying bare the base of Brazil and Mexico. The correct play is to wait patiently for a confirmed break and hold long enough for the Peso to flee. Be long Brazil, stay long the Real and play the break as follows: Firstly, the BRL diagram which is showing as with a few other currencies signs of bottoming versus USD, and the following two macro formations of Brazilian inflows and Mexican outflows. These drivers are going to dictate the pace and will allow a breakout on BRLMXN for a +50% move. This is not talking in pips, pips are for pipsqueak's... this is a macro swing, a full blown % move which starts as a hedge and when it begins to work with the break it means we can go HARD. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | Gold in CNY📌 The lows in Gold are an elegant threat for another leg higher towards the highs; name wave 5 which is the one that we have been tracking since the previous diagram: I love it when an idea comes together. We arrived at the destination for our retrace and have started to form a base. Sellers are vacating! Moreover, buyers are now keeping their eye on the momentum gambits, these are particularly for their fancy. A change of scenery from the channel would be enough to do the technical damage, there is hope for the combination and recommend keeping some powder back to go massive when it start working. This is exactly the same way we played it with the 3rd wave up... try with one or two positions in the opening, no more. Once you break the block add another; and another; and eventually you build an entire account which gets new and decisive in its own way. Anything but selling the premium! So the XAUUSD annotation: Also much clearer is the flow in XAUUSD which, since the prospect of dollar getting devalued, makes it a lot easier and more important to track. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
FX_IDC:XAUCNYLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | SHCOMP for the Yearly Close📌 Another round of updates for the Yearly close on the MT and LT maps, sellers may still be in control but buyers are flirting with that breakup. This will occupy the battlefield and unlock a test of 4,500 for 2021. What is wrong with the bull case is exhausting to list; the exchange of capital from public to private assets is developing sooner than I expected. After Trump lost it is opening the window and front door for capital outflows. I am not interested in personalities with politics, when you have been in this business for too long you either understand or learn to never trust politicians on either side. Biden implementing the typical "vote me in and i'll get the guy who caused this" manoeuvre is carrots on a stick. Economic cycles are more powerful than politics. As we have seen, monetary policy has been employed and constitutes an excellent weapon for this 'reset'. After PBOC 'whatever it takes' moment, we managed to trade more or less to the tick on the lows as the exchange was easy to track: Now once we approached the highs we began to track for signs of a possible top. On the one hand, the ABC is very strong and must absolutely continue holding for sellers to have a valid setup. However, an immediate attack on the highs looks somewhat easier now as we ran out of time on the U.S. political front. So, the correct moves for 2021 is now the freeing impulsive swing rather than the previous retracement: But we must quite specifically keep an eye on continuation of sharp speculators outguessing government defaults cooking and the early game has started. Possibly the occupation of 4,500 and beyond. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
SLong
by ridethepig
3
Gold finding a floor - finally?📌 @ridethepig Gold Market Commentary 16.12.2020 The moves in Gold have been excellent to track this year because of the tendency to put turning points around the Central Banks. This of course seems very appropriate. The 'infamous' loading zone has allowed us to pick the low hanging fruit, now things are going to start getting a bit trickier from a positioning perspective. I am certainly holding longs and will become a player of the momentum break today above $1,875. How far Fed is from reality and certainly equity markets too is remarkable, carrying out a quick review of the flows we are way out of the $1,803 support which is the one we were tracking earlier in the year. In any case, it is clear that the direction is long and with the Fed support essential - we should not suffer in the least. Buyers are aiming for $1,960 and $2,075 extension targets. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
23
ridethepig | TRY for the Yearly Close📌 Turkish Lira for the Yearly Close The strong points of the rally which we went into more detail was an absolute momentum move; the flow was a force to be reckoned with and undermined all sides of the Turkish banking system, collapsing like a house of cards. After 2019 the helplessness of Turkey's Erdogan was quite something. My dear readers, populists and dictators are absolutely incapable of standing aside, and this one is not of any particularly inclined intelligence either. Markets are going to do this for us and leave him aside after we clear covid flows. I personally think a lot of profit taking will be done here in USDTRY, after such a monster move it is favourable for a retest of 6.00 and Turkey can begin to look attractive for the coming years. There is no such hurry with this move, firstly next week is a panic cycle, followed by 11th Jan which should attract a lot of opportunities to load. Make use of the retracement and profit taking as a basis for our operations, we are miles ahead of the crowd as usual with 6.0 in the crosshairs I am starting to build an allocation as TRY looks cheap to me up here. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | CNY for the Yearly Close📌 CNY for the Yearly Close... In the usual tradition, this topping formation appeared to fit the bill! The correct way to play it was for sellers to proceed; dollar weakness was knocking while CNY was quite tenable. It is now obvious that the above mentioned development has been less time consuming that the initial legs higher: This means the position we are tracking into the yearly close appears quite harmless but is very alarming. Sellers are now threatening to occupy the lows, in addition it has been quite comfortable for them with Trump unable to say much, the Biden Whitehouse will ensure dollar devaluation with extreme care. This year has clearly been the year of the yuan. In order to chase the moves lower; let's look for some targets and areas to unload liquidity - I am tracking 6.242x for the minor targets and 6.040x for the major targets in 2021. This obviously recognises the charming continuations, sellers should look for any weak rallies to scale into towards year-end. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | KRW for the Yearly Close📌 KRW for the Yearly Close This brings into an important consideration for review the long-term KRW chart, the plan chosen by sellers has been able to lure in late unaware buyers at the highs because of the simple nature of the impulse employed. By trapping the highs and aiming for the negative break in the yearly close, it is a very bearish sign. Moves like these, do not happen often and are noteworthy. Another Yearly outside candle which as a matter of fact, should fix itself towards 900. What is important for us to track here is the 'pressure' break which is being played after the Fed capitulation. So it is worth considering adding to shorts as this looks set to continue in 2021. 📌 Nevertheless, I will continue to go through the technicals across the board, before we dig into macro details together towards the end of year for a final talk shop. Thanks for keeping all the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Gold for ECB & FED comboA timely update here after a conversation with @zhaoyu01...I will try to keep this one short as by now we all know what is in play. On the inflation front it is clear what we have cooking. Sharp speculators in bonds are miles ahead as usual and signalling loudly that we have inflation coming to our theatres very soon: One of the best assets in 2019/2020 has been Gold to trade, the expression of risk makes for a clear picture. $1,803 strong support marked the lows, providing a jewel in our treasure chest and after the latest Brexit news it is all crystal clear to see: Now to put the 🍒 on top we have a ECB / FED combination coming. Purely as a matter of policy we can observe another round of traditional overdraft extensions in attempt of avoiding any vulnerabilities in stonks. The technicals are consistent throughout. We completed the retrace ahead of elections via profit taking and counter-play. The outpost now comes into play at $1,960 before unlocking fresh highs at $2,075. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
24
ridethepig | SEK for the Yearly Close📌 SEK for the Yearly Close In general the following flows are working flawlessly, sellers have recaptured the control and are bringing about a lot of pressure on the main macro targets issued at the beginning of 2020. One indication of the weakness is clearly the USD devaluation, and is represented by the attacking side rushing to SEK. Introducing some layers to time for this just as an example for reference points using Gann, it is strategically interesting to see Feb 2022 as it is also a panic cycle in the dollar according to my models. The buyers are hanging by a thread, they are having trouble trying to pay their debts and will have to convince the creditors. At the point when this was made, Fed was seen as a deer in the headlights via Covid capitulation / flip flop and, with what immense trouble they will have now in achieving credibility after funding the Whitehouse policies in broad daylight!! Watch for the lows next week, its not quite so easy for buyers to dispose of the momentum here: if this happens we may enter into waterfall mode. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | Aussie for the Yearly Close📌 AUD for the Yearly Close It seems a good choice of the moment to also progress with the Commodity Currencies next, the characteristic of the next macro themes are going to be coming from shortages on supply side and we can dissect how to configure that into currencies and in accordance with the previous diagrams. AUD has freed some space above for the coming months and quarters, the 0.813x initial target is interesting to note how the opportunity for capitulation of sellers arises, the breach will unlock the 'inverse' of a waterfall concept that we are now discussing in USD; With enormous complications for commodities coming, after a few more mistakes from politicians, AUD will be one of the main winners in the moves. In the next flows, 0.950x and 1.097x are clear extensions but until we can crack through the 0.813x soft resistance are only considered skeletons in the closet for now. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | Dollar for the Yearly Close📌 Dollar for the Yearly Close Now comes the dollar complex which we have covered several times - the artificial devaluation which we were tracking in 2019 has arisen: Dollar bears now have a good position, because it is looking highly unlikely that Trump can pull this off now and manage to force a stop to the artificial devaluation. This somewhat clumsy move of a Biden/Harris WhiteHouse alongside a GA senate flip which looks cooked to come in January - will expose badly the USD and nothing will be able to prevent it from hanging on. The struggle to control a private debt problem by issuing more private debt is a serious mode for the birds. ...Monetary policy, or better said, Keynesian economics has the difficult task of proving its worth now: For USD the chance of setting up a counter attack of the highs is diminishing on all wings. As we are seeing, frequently the 90.0x handle has been difficult to crack, so it is clear that we need to pay attention to a breakdown here as it unlocks the possible momentum force towards the nearest support at 77.8x. Another extremely violent example of capital outflows looks around the corner for the U.S in 2021. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | Euro for the Yearly Close📌 EURUSD - Yearly Buyers how hold a solid position, since the previous two outside candles over the past 30 years were essentially sellers biting into granite (the protected support). The solidity of an outside candle which show in itself the fact that 'eurobonds' are a game changer and troubled sellers cannot open the lows. Eurobonds Positional Play The breakdown: The move would have been premature on account of the MT and LT charts in euro and in dollar: In order to liberate the euro, we must see Biden get the official ✅which will leave the dollar unprotected from devaluation. Note how the same 1.135x which was the birth of the single currency was also our loading zone for the debt mutualisation. The fact that it is back to square one was not really considered by anybody. But the next targets in the yearly crosshairs come in at 1.400x and 1.600x. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 10.12.2020📍 This chart demonstrates how sellers are now stepping in to defend the previous support which becomes resistance and how those buyers stepping against the current should be punished. The lust for continuation down is greater than many expect at first glance. With the retreat already underway, sellers are threatening for another -10% leg lower towards the $16,200 minor support structure. Buyers have managed to bottle up a lot of momentum in the initial covid leg and at the same time governments are getting more aggressive on the digital currency side. Here we can see how the long road turned to joy after a breakout on the log chart: The swing down, demands protection of $18,500 with sufficient preparation already done at the highs, play with that in mind. Because of the battlefield being so open, the attack on the lows should be clean and fast. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by ridethepig
14
ridethepig | CHF Market Commentary 03.12.2020Another interesting play where buyers can win the flow. So, the idea to outguess a temporary floor in USDCHF is correct as we are approach very 'rich' levels for sellers. If buyers are going to have a late breakfast 0.890x is the level to load. Another few pips down and it would be difficult to defend because of the horizontal support. For those that remember the previous attempt we are tracking exactly the same attack. As we all know, the philosophy of a minor swing, is only for the evaluation of any possible situation with the major swing involved. And for this particularly we have the next leg higher in dollar cooking with some devaluation from SNB to put the icing on the cake: An interesting move, EURCHF ⬆️ and USDCHF ⬆️ up a lot more... The flow is worth considering, it is not a pitless market, very often we can close our eye to some dollar devaluation but we sellers are out of energy and we need to smooth things over. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | AUDNZD Market Commentary 09.12.2020📌 Buyers attacking and maintaining the pressure! Since the initial weakness we spotted at the lows, we have seen the birth of an impulsive leg higher: Of course this is very promising, buyers have much rather played the breakup and we got our momentum gambit! Well, for those wondering what rendered the base as valid, I would point you in the direction of the NZ10Y chart which was calling for the end of NZD strength as soon as we approach the 1.00% target. We must be clear that in AUDNZD 1.055x contains a lot of interest, the ambitious dream of forcing a straight leg towards 1.075x and forcing our opponent into complete capitulation is far from fiction. We can now attack the breakout and force the aggression. The continuation might be 1.055x -> 1.062x -> 1.075x which keeps NZD under pressure. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | NatGas Finding a Floor📍 Natural Gas The proud floor - such is the name sometimes given to support - is a useful weapon in the hand of buyers. And yet for a time, I toyed with the idea - a seasonality one, I must admit. We cannot simply dismiss the deep examination; namely the elements and the strategies involved in trapping our opponent. For example, the fake breakdown and slingshot restraint. I have decided that the advantage is with buyers and can be seen in the elements: Buyers are coming in and preventing the loss of 2.5 and slowing down the said decline. The reason is clear, demand is ticking up and cancelling out the artificial dollar devaluation. We will use the fake breakdown as our invalidation level, as long as we are ticking above 2.38x we can continue to work longs. It is scarcely possible to set down on paper all the various maps in which the end game of a cycle can be unpleasant. But I will try to mention briefly all of the most important ones. A round of chart updates will continue over the coming sessions and days. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
NLong
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 09.12.2020📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Commentary GBPUSD This linkage between the retracement and the impulsive wave is classical, believed only in absolute directional moves; ....sellers of UK assets are a forced to be reckoned with and such a move in 80 cases out of 100 will be considered worth playing. I am dropping the figure from 1.350x to 1.345x because I expect sellers to aggressively defend the resistance move. The strength of the USD should in no way be underestimated. And suddenly we are reaching the nucleus of the retracement. Clarification of the manoeuvre.... The majority are thinking that a dinner for two tonight between Johnson and VDL will consist of progress, instead I think the can will be once again kicked and create some kind of diversion. At the same time, we are going to use technicals here to show the nucleus. I shall choose a typical ABC retracement as an example of the flows to link and fade. In this case 1.345x is being blocked from the previous orderblock which we traded live: The threat of another leg lower interrupting all lines of communication between GBP buyers on one hand and risk on the other. Therefore we should track the necessity of trapping out opponent on the highs. If you know the thoughts of your opponent, it is easy to assimilate the concept of a counter attack; a flank which will hammer the currency in a naturally speculative way. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
33
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 08.12.2020📌 The "formation" of the strong resistance Here we are going to track a live example of BTC putting in a major high which will probably last into Q1 2022. My models are taking note of the outflows which are far from easy to spot: in the endgame of a swing, it takes A LOT of energy to crack resistance, the whole business involves activity. Think of the set-up in the early game as methodical and peaceful, operations this late in the swing are volatile and noisy. There are no sign of sellers across the entire tradingview platform, fortunately we can send a handful of troops forward here in advance and outguess the ceiling. Always start contrarian positions off small... and when it starts working, go massive! Let me explain this by means of s speculation system 🛠 Start small and leverage winners - from one brick build a house Reverse engineer the retail blow ups! Start with a core unit, when it starts to pay, and the drivers are working, you can add some more. Treat it like a business! In this leg, sharp sellers are in clear possession of control as long as the highs are holding and by the apparently primitive aggression from buyers we have a unique window of opportunity (*sounding like Klaus Schwab here*) to convert that control into a deep retracement. The moves from the collapse in public sector confidence via covid are starting to look over stretched and with governments introducing their own digital currencies as early as January in Europe unfortunately we are running out of time to crack the highs. On the H4 chart the flows can be seen clearly, penetrating $18,500 unlocks the floodgates and allows sellers to 'go for a stroll'. The waterfall will be almost automatic due to the inferior firepower. Buyers are in danger of being crushed... watchout. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by ridethepig
7