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Ridethepig

ridethepig | IBEX📌 Another example of the erroneous breakdown, a very similar position to DAX, CAC, FTSEMIB and STOXX. We can see how clearly the virus is leading the equity board, as Spain were the first to enter back into the second wave the prevention of a freeing breakup is being made possible via the important loss of diagonal support. "Sell weakness, and even more when the lows are untested in an environment which can be described as very similar to the original protection. The fact that we are technically well placed when it comes to sub 7,000 we should express dramatically more weakness in Spain and play another test of its lows". As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:IBEX35Short
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | DAXThis diagram portrays the position from the initial 2020 Macro map which I posted on December 31st 2019. The position arose after I called the end of an economic cycle and positioned with the intention to defend. We overshot the lows and snapped back, it is worth pointing out that sellers have significantly better chances because of the strong resistance. 📌 Dax 2020 Macro Map We got all of the ingredients at the ready, the construct of the breakdown played out as expected, and just like a bakery making a good sourdough loaf, the single difference between my loaf and the others was that the purity and clarity came from Vix: Here the continuation of Covid and lockdowns will turn out to be too much to handle for equities. The numbers are illusory, valuations are over stretched, and governments on the brink of default. I would like to point out the easier and path with far less effort required to the downside in German Equities. Targets: 11,590; 10,160 and 7,960
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | Stoxx 50📌 Eurostoxx 50 is in question here and we have a good illustration of the ABC outpost. The main target 3,489 is still open for a test but a breakdown here will seal it for the year. In a nutshell, this is a chart speculating that we are in the very early days of the "C" leg down. It is the same opening move in play for German Equities, DAX: This leg down in European Equities will be considered painful for the late buyers; the weakness of the real economy is shown via the following charts. Unemployment Claims: US 2's 5's: Sharp speculators are adopting a wait-and-see policy, the fate of the moves in Eurostoxx depends on the range settlement. Sellers breaking through 3,200 will 'protect' the highs and because of the technical damage done, the flows will finally commit towards +/- 2,475. As usual...thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
EShort
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | CAC40📌 A short update on French Equities that are also full of dramatic events. The nature of the down cycle came after the infamous leg we played to the topside and began profit taking. How to spot an early discovery of the flows? The diagram clarifies the relationship between the ending of wave 5 and the beginning of the initial 'A' leg with Covid. This change we played with more weight together in DAX which was pinned at the highs. Here is the brief reminder in DAX: Since we know we are in-between an ABC corrective leg the little inner flows can be played however we want because we know we are protected from the powerful macro direction. Targets: 4,200 and 3,600 before anything else is resolved to the topside would be very useful for trading the next cycle up in 2021/2022. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:CAC40Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | S&P📍 S&P This illustrates the total downside unlocked in S&P in the 5-3-5 sequence, but also note how unlike the Down the lows are set to hold. An innovation play. Tech avoids the development of destruction because 2,368 looks pinned and unavoidable for a test. As you can see the small caps => mid caps => large caps as usual in the end game flows. Dow: Russell: It is very much the same flow across the moves, the exchange of risk. We have already discussed the fundamentals in play for US Equities, we will need to start building an archive thread while helps keep track... more details on this coming soon. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | DAX Q2 Macro Chart Buyers of a V shaped recovery constitute a formidable opponent; the purpose of the bounce was not to recover but only to re-balance and rightly so. Of course, retail have another account and while the 11700 highs are holding continue to load thinking everything is roses and business as usual... You see, a sound position has at least 5 waves in the impulse and a double ABC in the retrace. In such circumstances, the short-circuit and its remaining furloughed businesses hardly make a very bullish impression. A bit of a hat trick for @ridethepig after such a battle! .. In any case, if sellers claim back the highs and obstruct any breach the end scenario looks rather miserable. Sadly we will have another leg lower in Global Equities, this will turn out to be the sweep that caused depression and forces capitulation from even the most experienced of hands. In spite of the advanced environment, this chart will demonstrate how and where an advance on the wrong side should and will be punished.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | TRYBuyers have made the transition towards capitulation. This leaves Turkey with a huge problem, and the process of the cleanse in local banks will continue. CBRT will defend with its 'customary inventiveness' very soon as they keep a stern eye on 7.8xx. It is an unfortunate position that Turkey are in. We have exploited it for some time and as soon as the banking collapse makes it way onto Bloomberg and etc it's time to start looking at closing out. Well done all those who sent their troops to the buy side, a massive +30% swing so far and counting. After the break through 6.78 it has continued to grind its way to the wearisome target. This is the real point in the manoeuvre, which forces us to stay alert and protect profits as we approach the final targets in the unstoppable macro advance. A superb live example. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | Nasdaq📍 This is another known position. Breakdown in 5 waves by testing 10,236; 9,548 and 8,859 . Double zig zag is purely a tactical weapon. It is terribly compelling; even the most sluggish of buyers will be trapped here - driven to cover after the latest breakdown. We shall open the next chapter in US Equities with four simple charts: Dow: S&P500: Russell: 📌 In the coming sessions we can open up the short-term charts and start adding some interesting positions to the portfolio. Sellers last move has been interesting of course, not because of the breakdown but because of the blow off top and profit taking that has taken place since. The somewhat theatrical looking pullback is no less imaginative than the move we played together in German Equities (DAX) earlier in the year: If 8,859 is reached then we have the potential for another waterfall. The final combination will depend on whether we get market closures. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by ridethepig
10
ridethepig | GBPA timely update to the cable chart after an annihilation last week... 📍 Taking back control (of support) If we take a closer look at the breakdown we can see that above all it is directed at a lack of confidence in building UK exposure against a no-deal backdrop. What is perhaps even more crucial is the conception of 'track and trace' which is of course difficult to argue against, however if liberty is lost then confidence will follow! If we take into account that the short-term damage from Brexit will relatively speaking demand action from BOE with front loaded cuts and another QE bazooka then sharp speculators can come together and understand the hyper devaluation of Sterling; classical monetary plays to offset the reduction in market access. Euro seemed to lead the way on the leg higher and sterling seems to be leading the legs lower in G10 FX because of its high beta. The 1.35xx highs were rejected in fantastic style; and since the entire scaffolding for the leg higher since July has been reversed. Here eyeballing a move back towards 1.225x and 1.207x, possible extensions towards March lows and $1.10 with no-deal this year. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | Silver Waterfall Event📍 What's in play here? This boat is becoming very crowded and the absolute freeing move would be a pullback into support before continuation to the topside in 2021. I have dropped my target to 18.5x, because even after the defensive CB manoeuvres continue the strength is mostly priced, and late buyers are underestimating that. The nucleus of the move comes from a 11 August with the start of an ABC part inside a 5-3-5 pattern to open up the possibility of a slingshot in wave 3. For now, to the downside sellers must not allow buyers too far down, or else the threat of the creation of a wedge would becoming disastrous. Take for example 22.4x and 18.5x as main targets to aim for. While to the topside, invalidation and reassessment needed above September highs. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDShort
by ridethepig
21
ridethepig | EOS Market Commentary 2020.09.08📌 Buyers have a good position here, because it is unlikely that sellers can manage to force a decision at the stops below 2.47x. But this somewhat clumsy setup creates some difficulties of its own. The right play here is to ride the pig in BTC which will expose the topside across ETH, EOS, LTC and a few other major cryptos still holding on. The struggle to make this a more serious breakup towards $6 and $9 is possible if we see a momentum breakup. The difficult task of finding attractive private assets is coming from populist manoeuvres. There is no comfortable way to play end game in the economic cycle, though I am continuing to long scarcity as the dollar is flushed. For those looking at the long-term outlook in Cryptos, BTC represents the entire sector and is opening up the attack on both sides. Thanks all for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITFINEX:EOSUSDLong
by ridethepig
10
ridethepig | Next leg up for BTC?I love it when BTC goes for a walk.... cheap cheap coins on sale here with buyers back from their vacation. Moreover they have their eyes on the $12,000 highs which they seem too fancy. 📍 And here for a change of scenery we shall dig into the LT macro chart. The multi year battlefield adds all kinds of clarity for our attack, buyers want to load the lows and trap any late sellers walking offside and catch them out of position. The technical setup here constitutes a buying opportunity from a strictly risk:reward perspective too. The purpose of protecting the $9,765 lows is endurable for the most part, naturally the retest of support is easy to defend. As long as it is holding there is still hope! Here tracking for a move back towards $12,000 over the coming sessions with a tradable momentum gambit through the breakouts. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
16
ridethepig | The Long Road Turns to JoyIn the realm of 2020, the struggle for freedom is identical to the struggle to shake off the latest resistance which is still bothering us, and for that reason our problem is reduced to a timing problem . 📌 We are going to dig deeper into the concept of liquidity warfare, as applied to that of positional game theory, as applied to swing trading. The attack is just a matter of "when". The transition with "The Great Lockdown" is playing out as expected. Unemployment Claims are still maintaining pressure on the Global Economy and by doing so put the ideal of an advantage towards retail participation and a liquidity trap or bubble of posturing in Bitcoin. This advantage can be exploited either by riding the inflows towards large cap crypto's or the mid caps to a lesser extent. The notes taken from our earlier Dollar macro chart, which is playing out accordingly to plan (i.e Powell artificial dollar devaluation) will give us an example of the shift away from government backed currencies. See the following chart, we are witnessing a digital migration as the stem game for a new monetary philosophy. Get long scarcity . This sort of tendency, which toys with the idea to roll up the whole transition, should come as no surprise with the timing with confidence in the public sector is collapsing, and a shift of capital towards the private sector unfolding right on time for a decade of privatisation. It is now important to take a retrospective look at Volatility after the earlier moves. VIX could and should have moved in the calmer waters, but sharp speculators are itching to complete a capitulation move towards 85 which is concerning for the more short-term view on BTC. The plan was: 1️⃣ Long Vix @ 11 in 2019 2️⃣ Covered @ 85 possible temporary top, e.g a retrace towards 25 was to be played 3️⃣ Long Vix again to advance in triumph It is important to understand the effective relationship with VIX, confidence and economic cycles. When risk is being strangled it makes absolutely no difference to the BTC supply side; consequently what is really important for us to track is confidence in the public sector and whether and to what extent the latter causes inflows towards Cryptocurrencies. To illustrate the inner flows, we should consider the following cup and handle as a base towards the 3rd impulsive leg. After Bitcoin significantly broke out of the log chart, we are unlocking the highs once more with $20,941, as a minimum target. What would be a risk to the move? Well, we have a lot of work still to be done in the $10,000 - $9,000 area, for good or ill, to leave scaffolding around the base. I am actively looking to buy this dip and eyeballing an ambitious momentum swing towards the highs. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
9
ridethepig | Momentum Gambit with ECB 📌 The best move, since the idea of Eurobonds and an early development of the rally is to continue working against structural dollar weakness. The +/- 200 tick pullback from 1.20xx highs in EURUSD to current levels is an attractive level for us to start adding bullish exposure. As will become clear, buyers are in full control on the macro direction and sharp speculators are playing the euro as a funding currency. The social idiosyncratic problems in the West are not going to be covered here today although are playing a major roll in the election cycle and USD. The way the dollar has completely paralysed Fed is in plain sight for all to see. And now, I ask you; what tolerance will the current administration have for a weaker dollar into the elections versus a weaker stock market? You get my point... an honourable (???) Powell bending the knee to Trump with a typical CBanker desperation move to create artificial weakness in USD and hold stocks is managing to create a wave of problems in Europe. As much as they would like to, there is little chance of ECB intervening at these levels, meaning for trading and speculator purposes we can squeeze and squeeze until they finally cough which wont be for another +10%. We will cover the ECB together in detail although here preparing for a very dismissive Lagarde this week which will reverse any considering intervention. A strong move here would be very useful as we can complete the MT and LT breakout targets from earlier in the year. I am expecting bulls to come out with their trump card, still eyeballing the same 1.25xx targets before year-end and 1.30xx / 1.35xx are on the menu for 2021. What we are learning from this move in the euro is firstly how to distinguish between genuine and false fundamental moves. After clearing targets at 1.20xx it attracted both profit taking and also some early birds looking to outguess a hand from ECB on the currency. For this week, what we are tracking is the deprivation of those looking who jumped the gun to give us energy to move higher. The pullback they have laid over the past week should also be kept in context with the long-term macro view: For the techincal flows, the 1.186x is finally getting attention. But just at that point, it is hard to predict that the radius of ECB volatility expansion wont send us into the opposing camp at 1.170x. Hence the textbook way to play this, is to load on a momentum gambit through 1.186x or load in the market manoeuvre zones. Invalidation for bulls comes below 1.170x as it will unlock 1.15xx. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
14
ridethepig | Selling the Footsie📌 Exchanging A quick chart update here for today's flow which is essentially intended to cast some light over No-deal Brexit motives. In all cases, losing market access is a bad idea in the short-term and particularly when done frantically. The apparently desirable opportunity to cause maximum damage from Downing Street with NDB is playing an important role in hijacking the flows into UK assets. Recommend avoiding a waste of energy and time attempting to defend portfolios with UK exposure and subsequently focusing elsewhere. Just think back to our coverage of the Pound when buyers were eaten up. This time sellers of UK exposure wish to occupy the downside in Equities to deliver complete annihilation of the economy. With 6,000 holding sellers have time to prevent the recovery and can move lower into Wednesday. The correct path of least resistance is to the downside, a break below 5,775 will leave buyers no choice but to capitulate. Thanks all for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
OANDA:UK100GBPShort
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | 10Y Treasury Note📌 Yields are clearly hesitant to subscribe to the V shapers in Global Equities. An important observation in an extraordinarily difficult trading environment. The 0.90% - 0.50% range is clearly defined and from time to time we have had to get involved with a gentle grin and attempt to play both sides. The 0.50% lows are 🔑 for this battlefield, as long as they are holding there is nothing to see to the downside. Losing the lows creates a freedom manoeuvre towards 0.17%. Otherwise all sellers are to be viewed as sacrifices and necessary in the basing formation. Expecting an eventual solution to the topside with 1.0% and 1.45% targets into 2020/2021. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback and charts coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | Recession Strategy📍 This chart update comes from the ' Alpha Protocol - Seeking Immediate Extraction ' The cramped inversion should aways be considered the end game of an economic cycle. But of course we will get the v shapers and naysayers who obliges that stonks only go up. The space available to operate against the Robinhood army is becoming more flexible. Sharp speculators are seeing more of an advance in the 2's 5's curve and abandoning ship when it suits them. The threat of recession completely materialised and shows the importance of outguessing its weakness. You can learn from this inversion that: 1️⃣ Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy via recession. ✅ 2️⃣ A Fed that lags and finances the Whitehouse will only add fuel to the flames... "it's different this time". ✅ 3️⃣ The longer the delay in USD devaluation from Fed, the worst the blow is going to be in Equity markets. Assuming USD does not devalue materially into 2020 its repo will grow and continue expanding the balance sheet , one way or another eventually this is going to look like Fed has been financing the WhiteHouse and then the game is up. Powell's noble attempt to pick a fight with the end game in an economic cycle can be regarded as having come to nothing. The threat comes from confidence and credit. Aiming for a complete annihilation across risk assets into 2021, the presence of the inversion was sufficient. Now this move will be made with momentum.
Editors' picks
TVC:US05YLong
by ridethepig
41
ridethepig | Bitcoin Market Commentary 2020.09.01Heading into the office this morning to find Cryptos stronger after a holiday weekend. BTCUSD is now less focused on risk and finding more USD devaluation players getting involved. With all of the weaker summer seasonalities behind us, it is pragmatic for players to look for value in scarcity. The long-term macro chart constitutes a formidable comfort; the purpose of understanding the long-term direction of an asset is to put your mind at ease. Focus on the long-term to navigate the short-term flows with endurable strength. The $21,000 and $36,000 ready to accept bids, buyers will be kept busy. Eyeballing a tasty desert for all Crypto enthusiasts. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
12
ridethepig | BTC Long-Term Macro ChartI am certain that in the coming years, the lack of confidence in the public sector is going to continue falling and stopping this train is extraordinarily difficult. You should also note that the position in BTC (which is itching to move higher) is now operating with a successful halving and in a world where Keynsian economics seeks salvation. In this game, the simple notion of a technical breakout on the log-chart will be enough to trigger the capitulation from speculative sellers. Despite that bears are lost, nature has a tendency to even things out from time to time, and we can expect that to be the same flow here. With the direction settled as we assume BTC is a hedge against governments , the flows are going to create energy and freedom to manoeuvre higher. This 3rd wave would not have been possible if the Strong 4235 Support was taken ( see red dashed line above ), it was the original breakup of the previous wave 3. These setups should simply always be met with the benefit of the doubt as a profitable strategy over time, in this case we are right back to the middle of the battlefield, this time with sellers exhausted and running for the hills. Buyers are in full control and we can expect a leg towards the 12,800 , 15,600 and finally 21,000 targets in the 3rd wave. We are talking about an extended swing. Highly recommend digging into the archives for those wanting to understand the different phases. As this fells straight into the pocket buy zone from before: The entire crypto board is forming a base, and momentum already appears to be pushing through (from the sizings and just how quickly the dips are bought). All eyes on BTC, here actively adding positions in LTC, ETH, EOS and a few other names. The log-chart breaking out here will be a game changer and give us the appropriate advantage:
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | ADP/NFP Combo Play📌 What we are trading here is an event risk play. This swing illustrated combining both ADP and NFP prints. It is also characteristic for the fearlessness with which USD sellers can to a certain point neglect their own weakness. The loonie with some broad based USD profit taking as widely expected after clearing initial targets. I am looking to recycle USDCAD shorts on rallies into 1.315x providing initial resistance. It looks like this move lower can at least test 1.295x. To avoid jumping the gun, shorts are only worth considering at 1.315x (soft resistance) as we are trading an internal structure that must inspire flows. We are trying to nip any rally with ADP prints in the bud with the still latent power of the structural USD devaluation. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
14
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.08.29📌 In spite of the summer lull, EURUSD continue to hold and buyers are threatening to win the 1.20xx handles. Sharp speculators understood the powerful attacking force of debt mutualisation, but the icing on the cake comes from Fed artificially flushing USD. The king continues its march lower. To maintain the buy side in EURUSD is pragmatic. Any direct attempt to step against this flow will be compromised while we remain above 1.178x and 1.161x strong pivots with 1.14xx the stronger level on a quarterly basis. An interesting move will be to complete 1.225x and 1.250x this year before consolidating sufficiently. The moral of the story, is stay long EURUSD. We have discussed the fundamental coverage in detail, there are other things which warrant attention from speculators, I can hear you asking, what things are these then? ...Positioning! This next diagram demonstrates how we can advance and capitalise on expectations transitioning to facts. On a very high level the theme here appears, with a holistic view of the macro direction. This resembles a move towards 1.28x and 1.42x as investors make the most of the advantage, and the 'freer manoeuvrability' of the fiscal side. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
20
ridethepig | Gold Towards Support📌 An important exchange here for Gold as late unaware buyers begin to go overboard on position length and combination of over expression. Sellers on the other hand are aiming for a pullback towards soft and strong support zones at +/- 1750 and +/- 1550. I managed to carry out a deeply laid plan since 2018, although it could easily have been refuted since sellers have been handicapped in a well known risk-off environment. Moreover, I understand no macro swing ending is exactly ideal but rather one that is more clearly illustrated with time. Things developed with the highlights as follows: (1): The Ladder is empty Buyers were threatening control since $1,200. The key takeaway from this is to understand that sharp speculators have been riding this for some time. The simple and clear flow has been higher. Here buyers took charge and began the march towards sellers outpost at $1,970. Note that instead of playing for intraday moves and banking pips, the correct approach was to swing the bat for a Long-term fundamental trade and continue loading the moment it started working. Pips are for pipsqueaks! (2): Large Triangle Forming In the flows, there followed after a few handles higher very little resistance from sellers who could not be liberated at the time. An interesting notion as to how keen sharp hands were to trade the moves higher in Gold and how much of a leading indicator it has been for the entire Covid flows. (3): Delights and Torments/b] The examples continue to show a simple case of flanking and riding the pig until the trend exhausts itself. Until now, sellers have not posted a credible threat. The macro swing worked perfectly in spite of allowing some minor overshoots at $1,970. Play went on... Buyers begin to take profit and sellers attempt their first credible advance since Covid chapter I as Fed have implemented AIT as a somewhat backward solution to an inevitable problem. The technical pullback sellers wish to create opens up $1,750 and $1,550 as main targets before anything else can be opened. I think this pragmatic correction is a demonstration of when the boat becomes too crowded on one side. Positioning dominates play as inflation takes the backseat for now, the struggle to hold $1,925 will imply the highs are here for the year because of the $1,970 blockade. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig
12
ridethepig | CAD Market Commentary 2020.04.08Commodity currencies reached the 🔑 value levels to load for this final leg down in risk. As mentioned here last week 0.62xx was the level to load in AUDUSD and NZDUSD. I also loaded an entire short CAD portfolio with USDCAD testing the 1.395x outguessing a negative outcome tomorrow. In best case scenario we will see a ‘handshake’ which wont be enough to offset this huge demand shock, I will keep an ear on the wires with live coverage resuming as usual from today. I am closely tracking for the final sweep to the lows in Oil, for those following in the previous strategies we are entering into fill or kill territory with the final $15 targets: Monthly For all those wanting to dig deeper and build a basket around short CAD I would recommend unless you know what you are doing to start your positions with a hedge, outguessing the flop tomorrow will trigger a major sell off in the black stuff. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
2