RIOT
Psychological Roots of Failure in TradingI write this article to shine a light on the importance of the learning process and increasing your knowledge in trading.
Unfortunately, many new traders start trading during the bull cycle without knowing the basics of the market, and the result is almost always the same.
They do not know Bullish trends will not last forever, and this coin has another side!
I remember when I published my RIOT analysis on Nov 5th, 2020, the price was 3.81 USD/share and my target was 55 USD/share!
I relieved many comments that is a scam or some others made fun of me!
RIOT skyrocketed to 79.50 and then I published my first short analysis on Feb 18, 2021, this time everyone oppose me that it is a buying opportunity at 62 USD/share!
I experienced the same situation over and over again:
NASDAQ:WKHS
NASDAQ:TLRY
NYSE:SPCE
Now for those who like to know the underlying cause of Boom-Bust cycles in the market, I would like to explain more:
Soros’ boom-bust cycle, explains the three phases of price change as:
1- The “far-from-equilibrium” upswing,
2-The phase transition turning point, and
3--The downswing and return to “near-equilibrium” conditions.
I believe we can evaluate the participants psychological condition as well:
Charles Darwin wrote in his book The Descent of Man, "Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge."
We can consider darwin's quote the basis for the psychological researches by psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger.
The Dunning-Kruger effect
The Dunning-Kruger effect is a type of cognitive bias in which people believe that they are smarter than others and more capable than they are. Essentially, low ability people do not possess the skills needed to recognize their incompetence. The combination of poor self-awareness and low cognitive ability leads them to overestimate their capabilities.
A Little Knowledge Can Lead to Overconfidence
Another contributing factor is that sometimes a tiny bit of knowledge on a subject can lead people to mistakenly believe that they know all there is to know about it. As the old saying goes, a little bit of knowledge can be a dangerous thing. A person might have the slimmest bit of awareness about a subject, yet thanks to the Dunning-Kruger effect, believe that he or she is an expert.
Other factors that can contribute to the effect include our use of analytical or mental shortcuts that allow us to make decisions quickly, and our tendency to seek out patterns even where none exist. Our minds are primed to try to make sense of the disparate array of information we deal with daily. It is perhaps not surprising that we sometimes fail to accurately judge how well we do.
Is There Any Way to Overcome the Dunning-Kruger Effect?
Keep learning and practicing
Instead of assuming you know all, there is to know about a subject, keep digging deeper.
Ask other people how you're doing
Another effective strategy involves asking others for constructive criticism.
Question what you know
Seek out information that challenges your ideas, as you learn more and get feedback, it can be easy to only pay attention to things that confirm what you think you already know. This is an example of another type of psychological bias known as confirmation bias.
Dunning and Kruger suggest that as experience with the subject increases, confidence typically declines to more realistic levels. As people learn more about the topic of interest, they begin to recognize their lack of knowledge and ability. Then as people gain more information and become experts on a topic, their confidence levels begin to improve once again.
Conclusion:
you should keep updating your knowledge about the market and accept that as a never-ending process regardless of your experience.
Best,
Moshkelgosha
Reference Articles:
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
psycnet.apa.org
www.britannica.com
www.verywellmind.com
www.psychologytoday.com
BTC to retest all time highAfter BTC broke down from the head and shoulders pattern there was a retest of the neckline. At this time BTC is currently trending in a falling wedge which i believe to be bullish.
Technical analysis in my opinion is an art and subject to interpretation. Please do your own research before investing into a volatile asset like BTC. Good Luck!
FYI: Blue lines indicate measured move.
$BTC WeeklyThe $40,500 - $45,000 zone has been a support and resistance area since December 2020.
If you're a bull - you want this support zone to hold and imply a move back up to $50K +
If you're a bear - you want to see a break of this zone implying a move back down to ~$35K area (blue EMA cloud)
My bias is to the upside : )
$RIOT Weekly Wyckoff Phase E IncomingRiot looks ready to enter Phase E of the wyckoff accumulation pattern on the weekly. Watching for a break over $39 and a move up to $48 in the next few weeks.
Strong rejection at $39 but holding the EMA cloud nicely.
With BTC above $52K my bias is to the upside this week.
RIOT. blockchain stock. looks ready to run.RIOT just has to clear a little bit higher then it will likely be a runaway train.
Take a look at MARA. You can see it has a really similar price story, and it is tilted slightly more upward. MARA was the definite winner between the two stocks at this stage, however, it looks like both have support from the bull community.
GOOD OPPORTUNITY ON RIOT IN THE SHORT TERMRiot Blockchain, Inc. is a Bitcoin mining company, supporting the Bitcoin blockchain through rapidly expanding large-scale mining in the United States.
This asset is directly related to the Bitcoin price trend. At the same time, it offers less risk than the cryptocurrency market.
The trend seems to want to reverse its trend in the short term. Great scenario for different investment strategies. Operations with different interesting risk-return ratios.
Crypto - Short MARA Domed House and 3 PeaksIdea for MARA:
- Domed House and 3 Peaks, its a Wyckoffian variation of UT/UTAD and LPSY.
- Bitcoin at "Return to Normal" Phase of classic bubble pattern.
- There are no fundamentals which support the rise in risk assets - especially in crypto, aka "sucker's rally".
GLHF
- DPT
$RIOT Analysis & Key levels$RIOT Key levels
I have WAY too many positions to be able to update on … So I’m just going to start posting the most recent support levels…
Red = Key levels
Green = resistance
Blue = trendiness
If you’re holding ONLY add at key levels. It is never wise to catch a falling knife without a plan.
Here I’m keeping an eye on that blue trendline that is just a little below here…
riot w3 swingfollow up post to my last prediction (view it at the bottom of this text)
catch riot at $29, and ride it all the way up to $69
could hold it longer if you'd like, to around $200+
my trade though, is a shorter term trade to cash in on this upward volatility.
crypto miners will outperform ever asset class combined in the stonk market
position yourself accordingly ~
$RIOT Target 45.70 for 51.27% $RIOT Target 45.70 for 51.27%
Or next add at 30.47
We've gotta push through the resistance here... Let's go...
I did not add here...
-----
—
On the far right of the chart is my Average (Grey) Current Target (Green), and Next Level to add (Red) Percentage to target is from my average.
ONLY ADD at support levels & FIB levels… labeled
I start every position with .5 - 1% of my account and build from there as needed and as possible.
I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.