RIOT: Bounce incomingRIOT is going through a major rout right now. It has fallen much harder compared to BTC. At this point we should see at least a relief rally for both. Current price action looks like a larger wave C is playing out. However, we cannot completely discount the bullish case. The way to identify would be the pace and strength of the next move. If we see a choppy wave 4 type of price action, then the expected wave 5 to around $7.5 area should play out in the next few weeks. If we see a very sharp reversal the takes price above $13.75, then something else is going on and will need to switch to the bullish count. In either case, a buy signal should present itself in the coming weeks.
Riotblockchain
Bitcoin Miners Update - CIPH, CLSK, MARA & RIOT Cleanspark Inc - NASDAQ:CLSK
$1.5 Billion Market Cap
✅Trade remains open in 39% unrealized profit
(average DCA of $5.85)
✅ The Volume on this chart is exceptional and really adds to my conviction. I may double down with another buy if we get down to the 200 day MA.
🚨 I have raised the stop from $4.50 turning it into a 23:1 risk reward. Raising as 23% below current 200 day MA is enough IMO.
A lot people see the recent pull back as a reason to deleverage, this is where I trade differently, its a long term position. The short term volatility will either allow me to get another decent discount buy in or sink deep enough to cancel out the trade. This is how we can gain a full long term bullish trending move with exponential upside. The risk is 23% or not taking the risk and not remaining patient having taken it.
Cipher Mining - NASDAQ:CIFR
$0.83 billion market cap
✅Trade remains open in 9% unrealised profit
✅ Look at that volume increase. It’s a beautiful thing. It reassures us that there is significant green buying rushing into this stock & hints that we on the right side of the trade
🚨 I have raised the stop from $1.77 to $2.16 turning it into a 7:1 risk reward.
- Raising the stop as there is plenty of support above it that should hold from recent lows, H&S baseline and diagonal support line. If all these are lost, cutting losses would be ideal.
Like most of my trades, they require a little more patience and a distain for intermittent short term volatility.
Marathon Digital - NASDAQ:MARA
$4.22 Billion Market Cap
❌Our stop was triggered on the last trade at @ $7.66 with a notable 30% loss. Subsequently this was exactly were price bounced. The original position size was very small so its not end of the world stuff. In the end the stop was too high, we should have place it just a tad lower but…this happens and that’s trading. All the other trades are in profit and fully cater for this loss. Without these rules id be broke. I consider it a necessary loss. I didn’t want more than the 30% limit lost so, that was my risk tolerance for the position size.
Onto the front foot what do we do next?
✅ I set a bid at $14.31 where i think we may get a bounce from the 200 day SMA
✅ You could enter right here for the potential head and shoulders baseline bounce. I could consider that but if but it would be watched like a day trade. I'll just see how tomorrow goes first. The bid is at $14.31 for now.
🚨 I am allowing for a 30% loss again with a stop @ $4.41 however I am starting with what was left after the last loss, 70% of my original position and I'll be watching this a lot closer.
I actually love these trades because they teach you something, you realize the small position size and the 30% loss was within your tolerance, enough so that you can come back at the trade again and with exponential potential returns the prospect draws you in once again. The risk reward is there. Alternatively, you could just DCA into these and for years through thick and thin, BUT again, position size should be tolerable for you to patiently sit on your hands and let the trend take shape.
Riot Platforms NASDAQ:RIOT
$2.42 Billion Market Cap
▫️ No position open in RIOT yet as it appears to be the weaker of the charts we have looked at.
▫️ In our last post we noted volume is declining which is negative and the RSI was not yet oversold. We noted both of these could mean more sideways or price declining action. Since then we have actually increased and hold a 30% higher position from $9.13 - $11.73 however price is dropping fast and has not managed to break out of the pennant. I believe this demonstrates relative weakness to the other charts noted.
▫️ We are still forming midterm pennant (dashed lines). A break out of this pennant would be an a good signal on direction.
▫️ Strong Historic Price Support between $8.50 and the POC at $7.40 (green bar). If you were going to risk a trade here, Id be playing off the lower end with a tight stop.
▫️ We are falling below the 200 day SMA (Not Ideal with pennant over head resistance).
Now don't get me wrong, RIOT will likely rise like the other miners, however at present NASDAQ:CLSK is showing significant relative strength having broken out of its pennant , well above its 200 day MA and sitting in 40% profit. On the contrary, we have strong support for NASDAQ:RIOT at c. $9.00 which could present an opportunity. We noted $8.50 as a good level last post, in the end price bounced from $8.61. We cant be too greedy.
Summary
The clear winner is Cleanspark NASDAQ:CLSK with a moderate market cap of $1.5 billion and a chart demonstrating relative strength with us sitting in approx. 40% profit.
The MARA chart is demonstrating strength and may provide a great opportunity as instructed above however the market cap of $4.22 Billion clearly out sizes CLSK and may mean a slower rise or growth potential. MARA actually mined a record 1,852 BTC in Dec 2023 and have increased BTC Reserves have increased from 12,964 to 15,174 as of Dec 2023. Theses are incredible numbers.
Tomorrow I will look at a comparison of how each of these miners are performing in terms of rigs active, reserves held and BTC being mined.
PUKA
A Rocket Called Bitcoin Will Take Off SoonSince the beginning of 2023, the price of Bitcoin has risen significantly relative to other asset classes, demonstrating once again to Wall Street that “digital gold” should not be discounted even despite legal battles with FTX and Binance.
Moreover, in recent weeks, we have seen strong momentum in Bitcoin, bouncing off support with ease even in the face of criticism from US Senator Elizabeth Warren, who is attempting to impose tighter restrictions on many aspects of crypto.
From a technical analysis perspective, we believe that the impulse wave marked on the chart as (3) was completed on December 8, 2023. After which a corrective wave (4) began, which will end in the range of $37,800-$38,200 per BTC, which is a potential opportunity to consider opening a long position ahead of its halving in April 2024.
After the end of the correction, the first stop for digital gold that we highlight is $49,500-$50,000. On a more global scale, we expect its price to reach $110,000 in 2024.
What are we doing?
Considering the significant decline in natural gas prices in recent months and its high reserves in the US and Europe, we believe this will also positively impact the margins of mining companies such as RIOT and HUT8.
We plan to open a long position in RIOT when its price reaches $11.8-$12 per share.
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Analyst’s Disclosure:
This article may not take into account all the risks and catalysts for the stocks described in it. Any part of this analytical article is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute an individual investment recommendation, investment idea, advice, offer to buy or sell securities, or other financial instruments. The completeness and accuracy of the information in the analytical article are not guaranteed. If any fundamental criteria or events change in the future, I do not assume any obligation to update this article.
Elliot Wave Count & Targets RIOTRIOt has great rally off the lows.
Favoring 1 last leg higher, however targets were reached.
We will see how the pullback plays out, if remains above the previous low of $5.16 where we labelled it as wave (ii), we can go long with a stop loss just below that low.
Theress 3 nice gaps clearly visible below HKEX:9 , HKEX:8 & HKEX:7 ; so those are areas we can focus on for pullback target zone as we await for it to complete.
We're being VERY cautious at these highs as the rally is already over-extended (yes, still room for higher), but were also anticipating bears and sellers to take over to minimally retest the lows, if not resume lower, depending on how global/financial markets react over the next few days/weeks.
If you've entered a short from the highs, congratz to you, focus on taking profits in the HKEX:9 - HKEX:7 area and place a stop loss near the local high
RIOT: can go one of two waysRIOT price action has been interesting. The choppy action in the month of October has kept me out of a trade but, the November pump has made things a bit awkward. From EW perspective, I have 2 possible counts that are high probability. I have changed some degree of labeling from my last post, but overall, it's the same idea.
Option 1: Bearish idea that we are still having a larger degree wave 2. Price is putting in wave B right now and we will see a very sharp move down to complete intermediate wave 2 and then go into the bull run of all bull runs for the miner stock.
Option 2: Bullish idea that intermediate wave 2 is complete and price is already in the massive bull run.
So how do we know which one it is? The answer is to let some more time pass.
For option 1 we might see one or two more highs in the next few days before some kind of a bearish divergence gets created in RSI in lower (4/8/12 hour) to higher (daily) time frames. Then, the downturn would be sharp and quick. Everyone will say crypto is dead again and most likely the low of wave A will break.
For option 2, the same one or two highs in the next few days will be just the lower degree wave 3 and the retrace will be slow and choppy for wave 4 for a week or two and it will put in another 5 waves to complete the minor degree wave 1 and then the correction will be a longer wave 2.
The trade will be to watch the price and play the retrace. If things are sharp and quick, we can play the bounces with stop losses. If things are lazy and time consuming, then start to build small positions along fib retrace areas and DCA until some key level breaks. In both cases, trade is not right now and, in both cases, RIOT will make some crazy gains next year. Risk is lower above $20.
Marathon Digital Mining Stock Head and Shoulders pattern
Simple Head and Shoulder pattern playing out before the BTC halving. Prior to last ATH for MARA there was a Head and Shoulders that played into the ATH. You can see around $20 MARA would break the neckline and then there is a bit of resistance before hitting ATH.
$RIOT, more downside around $8 before higher?As you can see on the chart, NASDAQ:RIOT has formed a rising channel and has broken to the downside and is currently testing the channel as resistance. Should it not be able to make it back into the channel, then my bias leans towards more downside before higher prices.
As of now, I lean towards the lows getting retested or broken and a bottom forming around the $8 region.
After that takes place, then I think NASDAQ:RIOT is primed for a large move higher in which we should see prices go 100%+ into the $15-$17 region.
Let's see if/how it plays out.
What if to MARA Never Comes MARA - Marathon Digital Holdings
We covered CIPHER (CIFR) Mining recently which is the 3rd largest public bitcoin mining company. MARA, which we are covering today is the is the 2nd largest public bitcoin mining company in the world. Soon I will cover RIOT which is the LARGEST. We save the best till last.
THIS TRADE:
18:1 trade with 592% potential upside and only -32% downside (the stop could be lowered if you have a higher risk tolerance).
Bullish Developments on the chart:
- Price above the POC means strong underside support
Point of Control (POC) is the price level at which
the greatest number of contracts have been traded
within a volume profile.
- Above 200 day SMA means further strong underside support along side POC line. The 200 day
SMA has not turned upwards yet and I would be much happier is this would materialize.
- We are potentially breaking out of the parallel channel right now. We need confirmation of this. I would prefer the 200 SMA to turn up and for price to bounce off it at some point. This would provide additional comfort.
FINALLY, I think this could be also fall into the long term trade category. The RR is exceptional. The stop can be tight or a little looser. For me, im playing the long term game with BTC and will be holding positions long term in Miners too. If the trade plays out ill be skimming the position for sure but ill be leaving positions run and will update as we follow.
Play it safe guys. Positions that mean nothing to you. Remove and/or manage emotions with position size.
Some Fundamentals to help MARA stick in the mind
- 2nd largest public bitcoin miner
- MARA have 105,200 mining rigs deployed (CIPHER by comparison have 70,000 rigs and RIOT have 84,000+. My understanding is RIOT have the newer 2,000 Antminer S19j Pro miners and 3,000 S19 Pro rigs which arguably perform better) Ill make a table of these differences at some point
- Interestingly the market cap of MARA is $1.98bln just behind RIOT at $2.00bln. CIPR is $0.70bln
- MARA mined 825 bitcoin in the month of March 2023 (Cipher by comparison mined 493 in May and RIOT mining an ATH of 740 BTC in Jan 2023). Again ill do a bit of digging here to see can we get updated figures.
Thats all folks, stay posted for RIOT coming next and some comparison work on T--itter
PUKA
I Predict A RIOTRiot Platforms NASDAQ:RIOT
- Above 200 day SMA & sloping upwards
- Ascending parallel price channel .
- Break of OBV resistance levels have been positive
- We have just broken above the Feb 2021 OBV high
New entries into this trade would be better waiting for a re-test of the bottom of the channel with a stop placed beneath it.
As we are breaking out of the OBV high, you could enter a trade here but with a tight stop loss at $18.30. Probably not worth it IMO. Better to wait or look at the other smaller miners.
I previously covered CIPHER Mining NASDAQ:CIFR and Marathon Digital Holdings NASDAQ:MARA both of which at similar junctures, however $CIPHER has had major developments of recent and could rise up to it next resistance at $9.60 fairly quickly over a few months (an 80% + move).
You'll find these charts in my trading view link in my bio. I also cover some fundamentals on Trading view also. They are also in my feed hereunder.
Play it safe
PUKA
Deep comparison of Bitcoin Miners| Gold Miners - Astonishing
Something that will go unexpected is the Bitcoin miners becoming the new "alt season" in this upcoming bull market, have tried to tell my circle yet they still allocate to alt coins. . waiting for the new NFT rush.
These companies own the most bullish asset on the planet, these companies are being priced like Bitcoin is going to 10k what happens if it goes to 100k? let that sink in what the thousands of bitcoin will be worth on the companies balance sheet that will reflect the company / buyback shares to fund operations in a bull market and the next bear market.
Marathon Digital Holdings (example) - 10,055 Bitcoin in holdings on balance sheet $239 million based on today's Bitcoin price.
why are institutions buying MARA? why does MARA have an excess market cap of $760.64M?
example Bitcoin reaches 100k = $1,005,500,000
example Bitcoin reaches 500k = $5,027,500,000
Marathon hit 10.4B in market cap operations when Bitcoin barely tapped $60,000
This is just one example I'm happy to provide a slide from my research
i.ibb.co
This is going to create an entire new digital commodity section on the SPX, mining companies and lightning network companies will be here too.
can't wait to see the web3 experts explain to their clients how they missed this one while the big players are already buying up everything.
i.ibb.co
RIOT - 126-130$ top target for 2025In this analysis, we will delve into the significance of confluence in technical analysis, the implications of shareholder dilution, the role of Bitcoin mining, and the importance of the technical indicators used in our assessment of Riot Platforms, Inc (RIOT).
Confluence in Technical Analysis
Confluence is a crucial aspect of technical analysis, as it allows traders to identify critical price levels where multiple technical indicators align. This increases the probability of a successful trade, as it provides confirmation and reduces the likelihood of false signals. The confluence between the 1.382 Fibonacci speed resistance fan and the horizontal 1.618 Fibonacci extension level in RIOT's chart offers a compelling indication of a potential turning point.
Shareholder Dilution
Shareholder dilution occurs when a company issues additional shares, which results in a decrease in the ownership percentage of existing shareholders. This can negatively impact the stock's value and investor sentiment. Therefore, avoiding shareholder dilution is essential to maintain shareholder confidence and support the stock's price appreciation.
Bitcoin Mining
As a company primarily engaged in Bitcoin mining, RIOT's performance is closely linked to the cryptocurrency market. Continued growth in Bitcoin mining will likely support RIOT's revenue and contribute to its stock performance, especially during periods of heightened crypto market activity. Conversely, regulatory setbacks or a decline in mining activity could negatively impact RIOT's stock price.
Technical Indicators
Our analysis employs the convergence of the 1.382 Fibonacci speed resistance fan and the horizontal 1.618 Fibonacci extension level to determine potential price targets. These indicators have proven to be reliable in identifying key support and resistance levels in the past. By extrapolating the data from these indicators, we can project a potential price target of $126-$130 for RIOT.
Conclusion
In light of the confluence observed in RIOT's chart and the importance of avoiding shareholder dilution and sustaining Bitcoin mining operations, we recommend considering a long position in RIOT around November/December of this year. This strategy aims to capitalize on the anticipated cryptocurrency market euphoria and achieve a price target of $126-$130. However, it is crucial to monitor the company's performance and the regulatory landscape, as these factors may impact the stock's trajectory.
Graphical and Fundamental Analysis of Riot Blockchain (RIOT)1. Graphic Analysis
The price has broken a diagonal support at the white line.
If going to bet on a rise, I would expect a bear trap at $4.
If the downtrend continues, the next targets will be hit on the Fibonacci projection.
$1.30 would be the longer target.
The indicator at the bottom demonstrates the correlation with the price of Bitcoin, which is positive.
The macro scenario remains bad, largely due to the FTX crash.
The quarterly results presented by blockchain and mining companies are being released, and by the way, they are not good.
The question is: if the next results are not positive or if more companies fail, to what extent this would affect Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
2. Fundamental Analysis
Bitcoin 500k Cycle Fixed (LUNA Leverage) + Bitcoin Mining Stocks ill keep it short, remove the Luna leverage creating a massive short squeeze followed by a long squeeze we have almost completed the expected 686 - 707 Day Bear market Bull market confirming by Jan 2023 with a historic pattern repeating the price to 500k (Indicated by the blue pattern lines replicating what should have happen without Luna)
Opportunities? Look how cheap well managed Bitcoin mining companies are with balances they never had to sell, this is especially something that can create leverage plays on top of Bitcoins price, the collapse and bankruptcy of the other Bitcoin miners might have just marked the short term Bottom.
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HIVE Blockchain -87.03% Change (1 year) Market cap: $0.23 Billion (USD)
30 Sep 2020 | 55.1 P/E Ratio
5 Nov 2022 | 4.41 P/E Ratio
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Hut 8 Mining -85.24% Change (1 year) Market cap: $0.42 Billion (USD)
31 March 2020 | 38.8 P/E Ratio
5 Nov 2022 | -17 P/E Ratio
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Riot Blockchain -82.30% Change (1 year) Market cap: $0.96 Billion (USD)
30 Sep 2021 | 233.6 P/E Ratio
5 Nov 2022 | -2.6 P/E Ratio
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Grayscale Bitcoin Trust -74.93% Change (1 year) Market cap: $2.15 Billion
3 Nov 2022 -36.29% Discount/Premium to NAV
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This just covers same basics of my research would need videos to properly present it, take a look around at these unheard of discounts that leverage on top of the BTC price hell you could even purchase LEAPS on most of the mining companies.
Meanwhile in Narnia land people are searching for Alt coins to make returns you could easily open your eyes and see the opportunities right in front of you here with extreme P/E discounts, but like always it will be the future around 2025 and obvious when these miners end up having market caps like Gold Miners these are almost a 100x Leverage play on Bitcoin hell you could even get it to 400x with calculated LEAPS. Talk about an opportunity this risk to reward just blows my mind
(Disclaimer I do own and are actively collecting listed miners after heavily checking their financials I do believe they are three most well managed mining companies that exist right now)
Blockchain Companies: Expectation vs RealityCryptocurrency bubble?
When analyzing the financial data of companies in the blockchain/cryptoassets area, more specifically the EPS (Earnings per Share), we can see a huge discrepancy between expectation and reality.
It should be noted that some of these companies have never made a profit during their entire existence, and have negative cash flow.
The question is: to what extent has the market already priced in these negative results?
Would there be more room to fall?
Below is the concept of EPS, and shortly after a snapshot of the current EPS versus expected EPS, from the main companies in the cryptocurrency and blockchain area.
I'm not optimistic about this data, unless there's something that only I didn't see.
What is basic EPS?
Earnings per Share is the amount of earnings per share of issued, ordinary shares. When companies report financial results, earnings per share is one of the most commonly measured metrics.
(TradingView)
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Companies analyzed:
Marathon
Riot Blockchain
Hut 8 Mining
Coinbase
Bitfarms
BitNile
CleanSpark
Core Scientific
Argo Blockchain
Canaan
Hive Blockchain
Digital Bit
Galaxy Digital
BIT Mining
Valour
Ebang
Greenidge
Iren
The Blockchain Group
TeraWulf
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ETFs analyzed:
Proshares Bitcoin Strategy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust