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Target 0.53 - Correction Wave - $XRP #XRPcommunityThe violation of 0.45 was a difficult thing to digest and we are in this difficult to plot no-mans land. The general consensus is that BTC will rise to above 7000, potentially to 7700. If we correlate this to XRP we would see 0.55-56. This lines up with the potential impulse wave plotted in green. This could finish the correction wave of the higher degree (not plotted), and line us up for a impulse wave down, targeting below 0.42. Because we have been in a bearish market, I have to assume we are now in a correction wave. A typical correction wave, ABC, is a 3-3-3 structure, which could culminate with Wave 3, which is also right around the Monthly Pivot at 0.53. I am actually sending more cash to my account, so I hope it goes lower honestly, but hopefully it doesnt shoot up into a new bullish move before the wire transfer completes :) =========== As always, this is my personal observation and analysis of the market and is not intended to be trading advice. I can be, and have been, completely wrong in my analysis. I am not trying to identify a trend; a 5 year old can do that. I am trying to maximize XRP holdings by catching the waves as soon as possible. So, while anyone that identifies a trend can be right 100% of the time, finding those tops and bottoms is difficult and prone to error, but by and large I can increase my XRP holdings steadily.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by Exsilium
$XRP #Ripple - Pennant Broke Down - I WAS WRONG - BUY! BUY! BUY!The following analysis isn't going to be particularly helpful. Basically, from my point of view, 2+2 is no longer 4. What I can tell you is this; buy. Why? Because I truly believe in XRP and Ripple as a whole. There is some major traction in users of Ripple products and that will inherently increase the value of XRP. Let me put it another way, this next paycheck.. Im going to add another $4000-$5000 to my XRP holdings. I see no reliable support levels to target for entry below here, and I still think $10 is plausible by end of year. So, that $5000 for instance, at the current 0.42639, would be worth $117,263 at $10. So Im not upset that the price went down from a real-money point of view, Im upset because all the analysis in the world can be wrong and Im not fond of being wrong. Ive been watching other guys who post XRP analysis and some have been yellowing for down down down.. but with no reason why, other than following the current trend. I am not trying to call the current trend, thats not rocket science; a 5 year old could tell you what the trend is. I am trying to identify waves, tops and bottoms, so I (and you) can get in and out sooner and maximize XRP holdings. We have been wanting XRP to diverge from BTC for a long time... and it did last night. While XRP is currently down 3.87%, BTC is up 0.28%. Go figure. Yesterday I did a whole write-up about Pennants and Triangles. Over the last night the Pennant I plotted broke down, as well as the Sell Signal I plotted. Normally a Pennant exit will follow the length of the flagpole. In this case, that would target 0.43. I was watching LOI climb steadily last night, but it appears as soon as I went to bed it reversed with about 3 million flowing out XRP on Bitfinex. The part about this data that doesnt quite make sense to me is that there is about 10 million more in XRP now than there was back in April when we were at 0.45. I am trying to correlate this to price action but have yet to solve that puzzle. Below here we have the Monthly (P1+P2)/2 Pivot Point at 0.388055. Next months estimated Pivot Points have changed with the new low. Relevant to the current level we have PP at 0.52, (P+S1)/2 at 0.43, and S1 at 0.34. HA relevant PP is at 0.58, HA(P+S1)/2 at 0.48 and HAS1 at 0.39. Potential, but very weak trend-lines from December are around 0.32-0.33. I see a lot of guys trying to use this, but the data is old and irrelevant to the current price action than it was then. The top of the run up in Q2 of 2017 was at 0.39887. I point this out as previous resistance can become support. There is a couple more tops at 0.32 and 0.33. Again, this is super old data, but we are in no-mans land now and trying to find support here is tricky. This break lower has violated various Elliot Wave rules as currently plotted. I am going to find a way where this fits into EW theory. Daily Fisher is now at the same level that preceded the rise from 0.45 to 0.96, as well as the rise from 0.54 to 0.70. So, if your still HODLing, continue to do so. Selling here would just be stupid. =========== As always, this is my personal observation and analysis of the market and is not intended to be trading advice. I can be, and have been, completely wrong in my analysis. I am not trying to identify a trend; a 5 year old can do that. I am trying to maximize XRP holdings by catching the waves as soon as possible. So, while anyone that identifies a trend can be right 100% of the time, finding those tops and bottoms is difficult and prone to error, but by and large I can increase my XRP holdings steadily.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by Exsilium
15
$XRP #Ripple - Pennant/Triangle Scenario - Target 0.54Pennants and Triangles are very similar formations with some key differences. Pennants are considered shorter term, while Triangles are longer term. Pennants are also usually defined by a surge-like flagpole and are usually formed during strong trends. The exit of either formation is also different, where the Pennant exit will move the length of the flagpole, and a Triangle exit will precede a significant movement not defined by a flagpole. Triangles are also defined by an ABCDE formation. In this scenario the ABC correction of the Minor degree has transitioned from an ABC wave to a Pennant. The problem I have with this formation is that a bullish exit would be defined by the flagpole assuming this is a Pennant and not a Triangle. This would make an insignificant Wave 3, but its not uncommon for Wave 5 to be the extension wave. I am leaving in my predictive 12345 Minor plot for now. Its entirely possible Wave 3 would ignore the flagpole limitation. Lets assume for a moment that a bullish exit of the Pennant ignores the flagpole limitation. In that scenario I have plotted the end of Wave 3 at the 1.618 fib, which would put it right where the current HA Pivot is, and where I have estimated next months Monthly Pivot to be. This also coincides with the bearish trend-line I have plotted. The confluence of resistance there is a prefect spot for Wave 3 to end. I would be remiss if I didnt point out the bearish scenario, because regardless of any bullish indications, things can, and do, go contrary to expectation. To that end I have plotted the Sell Signal dotted green line. As I have mentioned in the last two Analysis', the 0.44 low ended both the Minor and Intermediate impulse waves. While we are seeing the Minor correction wave now, we have not seen even really the start of the Intermediate correction wave. A break above 0.57 would turn an Intermediate correction wave into an Intermediate impulse wave. According to the rules of Elliot Wave theory, we simply cant make any new lows here until after the correction waves are complete. As far as indicators are concerned, 4H Fisher has turned down and 4H RSI is stuck in a wedge itself... which.. a break would also be signaling. LOI is a bit tricky. We have been stuck at this 52 million level for a week now. The current daily bar started out bullish, and in fact broke above the previous days bar by a whole 2200, but is now down by about 776k... so were in the same place we have been for the last week. The 4H LOI is also down for the last 3 bars after a 5 bar rise. Basically, nearly all the money that moved into the market after the 0.44 low has now left. This is concerning. I have alerts set up on this chart so I know if money starts moving one way or another. I will update both twitter and here when this happens. =========== As always, this is my personal observation and analysis of the market and is not intended to be trading advice.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by Exsilium
12
$XRP #Ripple - 2nd Scenario Plays - Near Target 0.52It looks like the 2nd scenario I plotted yesterday is in play, with the price dipping below 0.47 to a low of 0.45. Until the price raises above 0.496 the near-term bias is neutral, and Id like to see 0.56933 for a mid-term bullish trend signal. Right now we are still in an Intermediate Correction Wave after the completion of the Intermediate Impulse Wave series completed at 0.44036. The 0.382 fib of that series is 0.54066 and I expect the price to get there soon. It could stop there if this is only a correction wave and not a new bullish impulse wave, but until we see a break above 0.57 were still in correction territory. 4H Fisher just confirmed bullish direction, and 4H RSI appears to be in a wedge, a break of which could give XRP the nudge it needs to get past the 0.496 level. LOI is finding support at the same levels it has found support for previously many times. Look for Daily LOI to cross above 52.49 million for indication that buyers are entering the market again. On the 4H LOI chart, there is already indication of buyers jumping back in and I expect the next Daily bar to turn bullish. =========== As always, this is my personal observation and analysis of the market and is not intended to be trading advice.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by Exsilium
$XRP #Ripple - Near Term Bottom Sill In Play - Still BullishIm getting a lot of push from other chart analyzers that were going lower, that my current analysis is silly. Elliot Wave theory says that every impulse wave structure is followed by a corrective wave structure. While there are a very large number of potential correction wave formations, the simplest of those is the ABC correction wave. At this point in time we havent seen a completed ABC, let alone any of the more complex correction wave formations. At the most we could be seeing an AB of an ABC wave in the Minor degree (green). A potential Flat ABC would mean at least another test of 0.496. Flat ABC are not the norm though and we should see a push above 0.496 to complete the standard ABC formation. Assuming for the moment that the current minor wave is wave B, it could extend down to retest the bottom, below that would invalidate any correction wave count. If this is the reversal point as I suspect (really hope BTC gets its act together), ABC would actually be 123 of a 5 count. Heres the tricky part... all of that is when we consider the Minor wave structure. The recent bottom also completed the Intermediate wave structure, which means there should be an Intermediate correction wave, which would require significantly higher moves. The 0.382 for the Intermediate degree would be 0.54. With the very potential double bottom coinciding with the Monthly S1 and the current wave structures, I simply do not see us making a new low until we at least hit 0.54. A break above 0.60 would confirm the reversal IMHO, while a break of 0.50 would confirm the near term. =========== As always, this is my personal observation and analysis of the market and is not intended to be trading advice.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by Exsilium
2
$XRP #Ripple - 2018 Low Breach - Bullish Engulfing - Int.Wave 5The 2018 low of 0.459 was breached and rebounded... twice, over the last 16 hours. The last rebound was 0.04 and is a bullish engulfing bar, altogether a very strong bullish signal IMHO. This would mark the end of Minor Wave 5 and would now start the correction waves. Price has to go above Minor Wave 4 at 0.496 to indicate a potential new bullish impulse series, and I fully expect this to happen today. I see what is the completion of Intermediate Wave 5 (yellow). If this hold true we can see 0.54066 (0.382 of yellow impulse wave) in a corrective wave scenario, with 0.57164 (0.50 fib) possible, but with a breach above signaling new bullish Intermediate impulse wave. Right now (P+S1)/2 is sitting right above Intermediate Wave 4 and would normally provide resistance, but were approaching the end of the month and it becomes less relevant the closer we get. To be clear, and at great risk to my reputation, I am calling a reversal here. =========== As always, this is my personal observation and analysis of the market and is not intended to be trading advice. =========== You may notice some of my previous chart posts are gone. That is because I had some of my previous posts hidden by moderators as they had links to my twitter and patreon accounts. I guess doing that is limited to the highest tier subscription account.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by Exsilium
17
$XRP #Ripple - Bearish Flag Testing - LOI BounceWe are on the precipice, currently testing the bottom trend-line of the Bear Flag plotted yesterday. A break of this should lead to at test of the 0.459 low of the year. Standard technical analysis of a bear flag says the pole should repeat, which means we would be looking at 0.39. However, 0.459 is a pretty big line in the sand and a pause there should be expected. Be careful of placing stop-losses below 0.459. There will be a chunk of them just below that level which would lead to a domino spike and bounce. In a bullish scenario where the Bear Flag holds here we would be looking at 0.59, a break of which would signal a bullish turn in direction for the next few days. LOI continues to bounce off the levels I plotted yesterday and is currently UP. This contradicts with the bearish indicators which makes todays analysis difficult. Everything I plotted on the main chart says that we should see continued downward movement, but if money is flowing into XRP it would stand to reason that the law of supply and demand would kick in and price would rise. Watch the LOI chart carefully. I plotted the current 4H line. I will update on Twitter if I see a clear direction. Please let me know if you have any questions or comments. ======================= As always, this is my personal observation and analysis of the market and is not intended to be trading advice. For future updates to this Analysis follow me here, or if you want to get more up-to-date updates to price action follow me on Twitter @ExsiliumI. I am currently setting up a Patreon account at patreon.com/exilium. Right now I am looking at ways to structure things, like releasing analysis earlier for subscribers, etc. If you have any suggestions please let me know.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by Exsilium
2
$XRP #Ripple - Bullish Divergence Plays - Likely Correction WaveI left the bullish divergence lines I drew (cyan) in my previous analysis since I was called out about my hanging onto it. The divergence played out and we are looking at a 0.06-7 bounce already. I feel the need to remind everyone that my analysis isnt meant for long term, or even intermediate term, but generally less than a week, and even more so, 2-3 days. So, when I point out a divergence its not to say the overall trend is reversing but that the near term trend is. Yes, that could turn into a more long term situation, but unlike everyone else, Im not pretending to be able to predict the market. Wave 5 ended perfectly at the 0.786 fib of Wave 3, and is currently at the 0.618 fib of Wave 5, which is usually a good spot for a Wave A scenario. Furthermore, there appears to be a bearish flag forming, which I plotted. a break down through the lower trend-line would likely confirm the ABC correction wave, which... as much as I hate to say it, could lead us far below 0.45. I would want to see a continued run up past 0.61 to start seeing real confirmation of a bounce from 0.50. Pay close attention to the 4H RSI trend-line plotted, or for a reversal in 4H Fisher. The 4H LOI is retracing a bit, but with no confidence. In fact it looks like a bear flag. However, looking back, I see bounces at this level in LOI. See the chart shot I posted below in comments. Please let me know if you have any questions or comments. ======================= As always, this is my personal observation and analysis of the market and is not intended to be trading advice. For future updates to this Analysis follow me here, or if you want to get more up-to-date updates to price action follow me on Twitter @ExsiliumI. I am currently setting up a Patreon account at patreon.com/exilium. Right now I am looking at ways to structure things, like releasing analysis earlier for subscribers, etc. If you have any suggestions please let me know.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by Exsilium
2
$XRP #Ripple - Bullish Divergences - Potential Bottom - LOI DiveI apologize that I was not active during this dump, really bad timing as I have been at the Cisco Live conference. In my last analysis I put a bunch of trendlines in place, a break of which would signal direction. As you can see from this chart, once the price broke down past that bottom trend-line it just nose dived. There are two potential EW counts. The good news is that the first count has Wave 5 ending here, the bad news is that if the alternate count is true, were looking at 0.46-47 which is Monthly S1 as well as just above the lowest point this year at 0.459. There are obvious Bullish Divergences right now which I have plotted in red. To be clear, the wave bottoms in price have been lower than the waves in both Fisher and RSI. It goes without saying that 4H RSI is oversold. There is worse scenario that is possible and I would be remiss if I didnt point it out here. Lets assume that that either one of these counts are correct. That would mean we would see a short ABC count, potentially up to ~0.60, but then a wave count that would make a new low below 0.45. VERY IMPORTANT - LOI took a major nose dive over the last two 4H bars. Also, LOI 50 and 100 EMA are turning down and are about to cross down. Price failed to follow LOI, but I figure its important I point it out here. ==================== As always, this is my personal observation and analysis of the market and is not intended to be trading advice. For future updates to this Analysis follow me here, or if you want to get more up-to-date updates to price action follow me on Twitter @ExsiliumI. If you truly appreciate my efforts here, consider visiting www.patreon.com and letting me know. Become a Patron!
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by Exsilium
13
$XRP #Ripple - Bullish Ascending Triangle Forms - LOI DecreasesI mentioned this morning a slight concern about the topping LOI pattern I saw. It broke down during this 4H bar. That said, I do not see it as an indication at this time of any significant downward movement. There is a new Bullish Ascending Triangle on the chart. It terminates in 20 hours. These things never go to full termination, so I expect some break one way or another in the next 8, probably during the Asian session. It is a bullish formation, and we should be in Wave 3, so it should be breaking up. Should... so... it can also break down. Either way, these formations, and Pennants, usually precede significant moves. Ready. Set. Go. ================= Legal disclaimers and stuff.. dont use my personal analysis of the market as trading advice. Follow me here and on Twitter @ExsiliumI for up-to-date price action analysis.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by Exsilium
3
$XRP #Ripple - Disappointing Performance as Monthly Pivot holds The current Wave count is becoming increasingly difficult to plot, or is just simply beyond my experience with Elliot Wave. This drop over the last 20 hours would seem to make Wave 3.. not a Wave 3. I need to dig into the underlying structure more, and that is going to take some studying. EW is not simple, if it was you would be doing it too :) Anyway, not to worry. As I noted yesterday, and the day before, I saw indications that LOI was topping out which preceded a minor sell-off. However, for the last two 4H bars, LOI has been increasing and is only 500k from its high yesterday. All the 4H RSI bullish trend-lines were broken, and with 4H Fisher still down, there is no real confirmation that this minor sell-off is over. My gut feeling, which is not the best analysis tool in the world, tells me that we shouldn't see any price movement below 0.65, and that this is just a set-up to finally breach past the Monthly Pivot at 0.69. For confirmation, look for 4H Fisher to turn up, and for a break of the 4H RSI bearish trend-line plotted. ======================= As always, this is my personal observation and analysis of the market and is not intended to be trading advice. For future updates to this Analysis follow me here, or if you want to get more up-to-date updates to price action follow me on Twitter @ExsiliumI.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by Exsilium
2
$XRP #Ripple - Monthly Pivot Barrier - LOI RecoversWe quickly recovered from that single bar dip yesterday and actually poked above Wave 1 high, though by a tiny fraction. Right now there are no technicals limiting us from more upward movement except for the Monthly Pivot. LOI also recovered and made a new high, though again I am seeing a flat top forming again like I did yesterday preceding that short dip. The crypto market as a whole appears to be up, with $XRP leading the pairs on Bitstamp and gaining another 0.31% over #Bitcoin. I am expecting a move above the Monthly Pivot today at 0.69372, culminating at 0.73 by the end of tomorrow, though a 3-day impulse wave isn't outside the norm recently, so it could be as late as Friday. I want to touch on the upcoming Wave 4 for a moment. With it so near the Monthly Pivot, and near the start of the month, I can see Wave 4 potentially testing the Monthly Pivot, which is also the 0.5 fib of the predicted Wave 3. The only wave I try to capitalize on is Wave 5 and Wave A, selling at Wave 5 and buying at Wave A. Trying to catch a 0.03 move is tricky, and from experience I end up just loosing some of my overall position. The goal here is to build up as much XRP as possible. For those of you who can magically call the exact top and bottom, congrats, but I usually estimate Im going to loose 0.01 off the top and 0.01 off the bottom at a minimum.. so catching that 0.01 left of the 0.03 may or may not be worth the effort and risk to overall position. ======================= As always, this is my personal observation and analysis of the market and is not intended to be trading advice. For future updates to this Analysis follow me here, or if you want to get more up-to-date updates to price action follow me on Twitter @ExsiliumI.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by Exsilium
3
$XRP #Ripple - Wave 3 Begin Target 0.73Wave 1 ended up being just shy of my previous analysis, and Wave 2 retraced a near perfect 0.382 fib. I adjusted this series prediction based on Wave 1 and 2 end-points. This brings Wave 3 target down to the HA Monthly Pivot of 0.73 which is also the 1.272 fib of Wave 1. My gut feeling is that were going to see a pretty large jump at some point in the next couple of weeks. The only thing holding us back is #Bitcoin right now. I think its possible that we will see 1.20 by the end of this month. Watch the 4H trend-lines for break down as an early warning system. The 4H Fisher might turn down this hour if it drops 0.05, but thats only because we have been trading in a 0.02 range for the last 16 hours. 4H LOI is still increasing with the last 1.5 days of constant gains. In fact, the 50 EMA is about to cross the 100 EMA. There is some evidence of a pause here, and a drop past 62,561,798 (currently 62,669,586) could draw things out another day or two. When we were at 0.57 there was 52,549,855, so we have gained 10 million in open interest over the last 10 days. ======================= As always, this is my personal observation and analysis of the market and is not intended to be trading advice. For future updates to this Analysis follow me here, or if you want to get more up-to-date updates to price action follow me on Twitter @ExsiliumI.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by Exsilium
2
$XRP #Ripple - Correction Wave Complete - Target 0.77It appears we aren't going to end up with a Bull Pennant formation during this correction, instead we're seeing the Flat ABC correction I called as an alternative formation. A move below 0.63 would invalidate the counts, potentially forming a Bearish Triangle, or extending into an XYZ. Remember that correction waves are also correction waves of a higher degree, in other words, this would be Wave 2 of the higher degree wave formation. Generally $XRP will hit 0.382 Fib of Wave 1 during a correction wave, and we hit that at 0.64260, with a bounce nearly perfect off the HA (P+S1)/2 level. Further confirming the completion of the correction wave is the up-tick on the 4H RSI. This isn't valid until the start of the next bar as it is possible the 4H Fisher could turn back down in the next 3 hours. 4H LOI is significantly above the 100 EMA, and as of this bar is also making a new high. This means money is flowing into #Ripple, not out of it. We should see a test of the Monthly Pivot at 0.69372 again, which will most likely form Wave 1, unless were strong enough then we could extend to 0.73, the HA Monthly Pivot which would set us up nicely for 0.84 instead of 0.77. I do expect a solid reaction to the descending trend-line marked in red. Watch 4H RSI. I have marked a set of trend-lines there, a move above would further confirm the completion of the correction wave, and a move below would be... bad. I will follow up at 11am CST to see if that 4H Fisher holds. ======================= As always, this is my personal observation and analysis of the market and is not intended to be trading advice. For future updates to this Analysis follow me here, or if you want to get more up-to-date updates to price action follow me on Twitter @ExsiliumI.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by Exsilium
5
$XRP #Ripple - Called It, Again - Price Limited by Monthly PivotI tweeted multiple times to look for an exit at 0.69, as well as putting it in my daily analysis and follow-ups to those analysis. Price is now at 0.64 and is a good place to re-enter as that is the 0.50 fib of the move from 0.55 to 0.70. I see two possibilities for this correction wave, an Bullish Pennant (plotted in purple) or a Flat ABC, both of which would basically do the same thing, but with Flat ABC closer to 0.64 before the next impulse wave. Im not particularly fond of the last 1-2-3-4-5 structure, so much in fact that I feel I must give an alternate count to consider. We could be in Wave 2 with my plotted Wave 5 actually Wave 1. As long as the price does not go below the plotted Wave 4, this alternate count could still be valid; it largely depends on future waves. Ive seen a lot of Flat ABC correction waves when it comes to $XRP but if Wave C went below Wave 4, it would confirm the plotted wave count and invalidate the alternate wave count. The next wave should culminate at the bearish trend-line.... OR it could be the end of Wave 3 with Wave 5 extending to 0.84. ======================= As always, this is my personal observation and analysis of the market and is not intended to be trading advice. For future updates to this Analysis follow me here, or if you want to get more up-to-date updates to price action follow me on Twitter @ExsiliumI.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by Exsilium
$XRP #Ripple - Very Complicated Bullish Analysis - Target 1.20There are a confluence of indications that we have established a bottom. I very much hesitate to say this as it puts my reputation on the line, but I will outline my reasons in the following analysis. As a preface, I want to make it clear that charting Elliot Wave corrections is very complicated as there are over 20 possible counts and my use of Elliot Wave and/or my count could be off. That said, Elliot Wave charting is largely a subjective art form tempered by some math here and there... IMHO. However, used together with other tools, Elliot wave helps project the end of an impulse waves, and that is largely my goal in using Elliot Waves, so I can better judge when to exit or re-enter a position. There a couple of Elliot Wave fundamental tenants I should outline here: 1. Wave 2 can never go below the beginning of Wave 1 or it invalidates the count. At 0.54 we have very nearly reached that point. 2. Elliot waves very reliably react to Fibonacci points. In a correction wave $XRP has consistently demonstrated that it will react to the 0.362 or 0.50 levels... but in the lesser degree wave formations. The purple wave 1-2-3 is the highest degree (Cycle) Elliot Wave visible in this chart. There isn't really enough data for me to see a pattern in that degree. However, in the lesser degrees, the Primary (numbers inside circles) and the Minor (numbers without circles) waves use of 0.362 and 0.50 fib has been very reliable. 3. Wave 2 and 4 predictions are based on the 0.362 fib of Wave 1 or 3. Wave 1 is not really predictable IMHO, but Wave 3 has often extended to the 1.272 fib. Wave 3 is normally is the larger of the impulse waves, but its not uncommon for Wave 5 to be the largest. In plotting a prediction I have used 1.272 as the extension based on previous patterns. 4. The predictive Minor wave should repeat 3 times within the 3rd Cycle wave (purple), which is plotted at the 1.272 and is very near the 1.20 resistance level Ive had plotted for a few months now. Each Minor formation completes 1 Primary impulse wave. 5. The current Minor wave, of which 1 and 2 is established, would be invalidated should the price fall below Wave 2 again. With the overly complicated Elliot Wave analysis out of the way, the 4H RSI bearish trend-line from 0.96 has been broken. In addition, the last low, 0.54 was 0.01 from the Monthly S1 Pivot Point, as well as just passing the 0.764 fib of the 0.45-0.96 move. The 0.54 level has been a reactive support and resistance level prior to the move from 0.45. Another item that I have been studying is Long Open Interest. Since the 0.54 low, LOI has gained 2.5 million and has made higher lows and higher highs, a bullish sign. For the first time since May 8th, LOI has passed above the 50 EMA and is approaching the 100 EMA. I don't consider LOI a particularly reliable indicator yet, but I have been drawing correlations between LOI and XRP performance which shouldn't be surprising as its just another way at looking at money supply. Watch the descending trend-line marked in red from 0.96. I think that could very well be the first Minor correction wave starting area depending on how long it takes us to get up there. The rate of gain from 0.45-0.96 was 55 degrees. I used this rate of gain again to plot Wave 3 of the Cycle Wave ending at 1.20. As always, this is my personal observation and analysis of the market and is not intended to be trading advice. For future updates to this Analysis follow me here, or if you want to get more up-to-date updates to price action follow me on Twitter @ExsiliumI.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by Exsilium
$XRP #Ripple - Bounce from 0.57 limited to Mid-Pivot @ Bounce from 0.57 lows was limited by a combination of the (P+S1)/2 line and the 0.5 Fib of Wave 5 at 0.64. It appears we are in an ABC correction for the moment, with Wave C ending anywhere between 0.64 and 0.67. A move beyond 0.71 would convert this into a new bullish impulse wave, probably a Wave 5 situation. The Monthly Pivot sits at 0.75, but we are close to the end of the month now and in my experience the price begins to react to next months pivot points, so I do not see the currently Monthly Pivot being a point of resistance, other than the fact that it also was recently a support/and resistance area for Wave 3 two impulse waves ago, and Wave A and C of the previous correction wave. There is a minor descending trend-line, but I also think it is irrelevant, but still plotted for reference. I did watch a 1,000,000 XRP sell wall get pulled from L2 books earlier this morning, and I see significantly more buy orders on the books overall. LOI is at its lowest point since April 18th. This does not bode well. There is a rounding bottom on the 15m chart, which could indicate seller exhaustion, but the fact that LOI has been declining as price has been increasing is not particularly promising. This is a significant indication of Bull weakness. This week has been significant in that while Bitcoin took a dive, Ripple didn't follow suit. This indicates the 0.57 is well defended. If we look back we can see that Ripple leads and major upward moves, but tends to follow Bitcoin down. The divergence of last week could be the beginnings of another leg up. As always, I will continue to monitor the market throughout the day and provide updates here and on Twitter @ExsiliumI.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by Exsilium
$XRP #Ripple Diverges From #Bitcoin Price MovementBitcoin took a dive since my last analysis, currently at 7300. Ripple on the other hand has been relatively flat, currently at 0.60 still up 0.03 from its low yesterday. LOI has been fluctuating about 1,000,000 over the last 10 hours, also seemingly to ignore whatever it is that Bitcoin is doing. The purple line on the chart is the Monthly HA(P+S1)/2 Point, and was my target once the bullish trend-lines were broken a couple days ago. While price is currently diverging from Bitcoin, Ripple chart structure has not mirrored 4H Fisher or 4H RSI, which indicates weakness. A reversal of 4H Fisher could indicate another run at 0.57, and even the Monthly S1 Pivot at 0.53. Its encouraging that Ripple didnt dive with Bitcoin as it has been prone to do lately. For Ripple to truly move upward it is going to have to learn to ignore whatever thrashing about Bitcoin does.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by Exsilium
XRP/XBT,BTC,XRPM18 - Still BearishWhats up Guys, Slight Deviation from my earlier chart on Ripple, posted this morning - I misread it as a follower pointed out. However, it is STILL looking bearish, my timing was just off - Im showing a bear flag on the chart - Indicators not as solid as they were with the Bitcoin - so, as usual we're looking for some solid confirmations before making a move. Lets set alerts for closed bars below the lower level of support of the purple bear flag i painted. Ten Likes and I will update the chart Intelligent disagreement welcome Good Luck - See you on the trading floors www.bitmex.com #Crypto #BTC #cryptocurrency Twitter @willn12416 -Nix
by WillNixTrading
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