Ripple - Symmetrical triangle and bullish breakoutToday, we would like to update our thoughts on the Ripple cryptocurrency. We continue to notice signs of exhaustion from the technical perspective. At the moment, we closely watch the symmetrical triangle on the daily chart of XRPUSD. The recent breakout from the pattern is bullish. However, we have no reason to change our bearish bias on Ripple.
As we noted previously, we continue to think that the recent bounce higher still represents merely “buy the rumor, sell the fact” behavior. That view is also supported by bearish macroeconomic factors, which will be challenging for the whole market to overcome.
In addition to that, a lawsuit between the SEC and Ripple Labs, Inc. continues to loom over the fate of this cryptocurrency. Because of that and other factors, we stay committed to our price targets at 0.30 USD and 0.28 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XRPUSD. The bullish breakout took place from the symmetrical triangle, which is normally considered a continuation pattern. However, we would like to point out a significant decrease in volume as the price continued to rise and finally broke to the upside; that is a bearish development, suggesting a further loss of momentum.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI shows signs of exhaustion. The same applies to MACD and Stochastic. DM+ and DM- are bullish, with ADX suggesting the peak of bullish conditions. Overall, the daily time frame suggests that the bounce nears its end. In order to invalidate this thesis, we would like to see a pick up in volume accompanying a breakout above the recent high.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the monthly chart of XRPUSD. The yellow arrow points to the low monthly volumes. That reflects little interest among new investors, which is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD is also bullish but stays in the bearish zone. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bullish; however, the trend is weakening.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Ripplelabs
The SEC vs. Ripple Labs, Inc.A brief history
In 2004, a few years before the introduction of the white paper and Bitcoin by Satoshi Nakamoto, Ryan Fugger conceived the idea now known as Ripple. Initially, Ripple was not based on blockchain technology. The development of blockchain technology and its implementation within Ripple began in 2012 after Ryan Fugger handed over his project to Chris Larsen, David Schwarz, and the former co-founder of the infamous Mt. Gox, Jed McCaleb.
Subsequently, this group of entrepreneurs founded OpenCoin and that same year began to use RipplePay source code to create their own ledger-based payment network for financial institutions. Later, in 2013, OneCoin was renamed to Ripple Labs Inc. and began raising funds. That same year, Jed McCaleb departed from the company to pursue the Stellar Lumens (XLM) project.
Meanwhile, the Ripple cryptocurrency rose from a mere fraction of a cent to the all-time-high value of 3.55 USD in 2018. Although, after tens of thousands of percent in gains, Ripple lost more than 90% of its value within the following year. After that, in March 2020, XRP found a bottom and started to rise in a new bull market propelled by an unprecedented amount of quantitative easing and stimulus checks being handed out to American citizens by the government.
However, despite other cryptocurrencies reaching new all-time highs, Ripple's performance remained muted in comparison to the previous bull cycle, with many people blaming it on the SEC lawsuit from December 2020. In a new uptrend, Ripple reached 1.98 USD before erasing most of its gains and returning to the range between 0.20 USD and 0.40 USD.
After two years of court proceedings, the case nears its end, which has started the bullish speculation that elevated the price to a recent high of 0.55 USD, and which led us to announce a warning to investors. Just two weeks ago, we called the bounce characteristic of “buy the rumor, sell the fact” behavior. Today, we still hold this notion and remain bearish on XRPUSD. Accordingly, we stick to our price targets of 0.30 USD and 0.28 USD. The rationale behind our reasoning is described below.
The SEC lawsuit against Ripple Labs Inc.
In December 2020, the SEC filed an action against Ripple Labs Inc., alleging that the company raised 1.3 bn. USD through an unregistered digital asset securities offering. Based on the SEC's complaint, Christian Larsen, the company's co-founder, and Bradley Garlinghouse raised capital to finance the company's business by selling cryptocurrency tokens to investors in the U.S. and globally. In addition to that, Ripple distributed billions of XRP tokens in exchange for labor and various services. As if it was not enough, Larsen and Garlinghouse executed personal sales worth approximately 600 mil. USD, potentially breaking federal securities laws by not registering their sales of XRP tokens.
The latest developments within the lawsuit and Hinman's remarks
A few days ago, U.S. District Court Judge Analisa Torres ruled to release the documents from the former Director of the Securities and Exchange Commission's Division of Corporation Finance. These documents relate mainly to the speech of Hinman at the Yahoo Finance All Economic Summit in 2018.
In his 2018 speech, Hinman said that some cryptocurrencies would not be considered securities (and which many investors seem to consider bullish for XRP in the past few days). However, we would like to remind investors that right at the beginning of his speech, Hinman noted that opinions conveyed in the speech are opinions of his own, and not those representing the SEC.
Then, just about a minute later, Hinman proceeded to distinguish between securities and potentially “something other than a security.” He noted that if a cryptocurrency carried a third-party promotion, it would most likely fit the security description.
Subsequently, he described a promotion as raising funds (through selling tokens instead of issuing a stock) by promoters to fund a company's operations with the goal of achieving financial gains for themselves and their investors. Furthermore, he provided the example of the SEC case versus W.J.Howey Co. from 1946. In that example, Hinman outlined how the character of a transaction is a determining factor in whether an asset is a security or not.
He later continued clarifying how a transaction could potentially not represent a securities offering. For that matter, he stated that the network on which a cryptocurrency is based would have to be sufficiently decentralized, and “purchasers would no longer have reasonable expectations that a person or a group will carry out managerial and entrepreneurial efforts”. According to Hinman's following remarks, only under such conditions, a transaction might not represent an investment contract.
After that, Hinman finally proceeded to make remarks about Ethereum “while putting aside a fundraising of that company.” He stated that at “the current” time (in 2018), offers and sales of Ethereum were not securities transactions. Then, he said that over time there might be other sufficiently decentralized systems, like in the case of Bitcoin and Ethereum, while omitting any other cryptocurrencies, including Ripple.
In next Hinman's remarks, he talked about “a plethora of federal regulations that apply beyond the securities laws.” Furthermore, he noted “a few things” that the SEC could look at in order to determine whether an asset is a security.
“A few things the SEC could look at” or ask
1. Is there a person or a group who sponsors the promotion and creation of the sale of the asset?
2. Does a person or a group who sponsors the promotion and creation of the sale of the asset play a significant role in the development and maintenance of that asset and its potential increase in value?
3. Does a person or a group who sponsored the promotion and creation of the sale of the asset retain a stake and/or other interests in the digital asset?
4. Did the promoter raise an amount of funds in excess of what might be needed to establish the running and functional network? If so, did the promoter indicate to investors how these funds might be used to support the value in the 5. secondary market (or increase the value of the enterprise)?
6. Does the promoter continue to expend funds from the proceeds for enhancing the functionality or to just enhance the secondary market value?
7. Do people or entities other than the promoter exercise governance rights and have a meaningful influence on the network?
8. Is the token creation commensurate with meeting the needs of real users rather than feeding speculation?
9. Are independent actors setting the price, or is the promoter supporting the market?
Our assessment
As it is impossible to tell what will be the outcome of the legal battle between the SEC and Ripple, we are allowed only to speculate about the court ruling. However, based on Hinman's introductory remarks in his speech regarding personal opinions and not those of the SEC or its staff, we would argue that the speech is a weak point of evidence for Ripple.
Indeed, we think the same about Ethereum and Bitcoin statements. Hinman said that Ethereum and Bitcoin were not cryptocurrencies at that particular time (during the speech - in 2018). Meanwhile, the lawsuit pertains to the period around 2013 and not to 2018. In addition to that, Hinman did put aside the early stages of Ethereum and its fundraising. Furthermore, he did also mention several requirements for a cryptocurrency to be potentially viewed as something else than “a security.”
These requirements would require no third-party promoter and a sufficiently decentralized network, among many other requirements like no reliance on entrepreneurship of a company's leadership. However, after Ryan Fugger sold his project in 2012, the development of Ripple blockchain technology solely relied on the company's new management.
Furthermore, the management (allegedly) profited from the sales of XRP as Larsen and Garlinghouse executed personal sales worth approximately 600 mil. USD. In our opinion, all these points represent a significant obstacle for Ripple to winning the SEC lawsuit.
DISCLAIMER: This content is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade. The article serves solely educational purposes and contains merely alleged information and not actual claims about the actions of those described in the article.
XRP: Ripple Chops Its Way To All Time High @ $4Ripple looks towards new levels soon! Though $2.70-$2.80 is very likely the next major swing target-range, a deep correction hangs in the balance. I've made my target of $0.75 publicly known. This is my doubling down on that statement :)
Will Ripple Labs lose their case?
"Two Dollar Ripple" - Are You Ready?I had to redo this post thanks to my last one violating certain house rules here on TradingVIew. Absolutely nothing has changed with my chart and everything is progressing as expected for now. The bear party looks like it will finish between $0.65 and $0.75. The rise up to $2.00+ is supremely likely. It'd be ashamed if you missed it :)
XRP-USD (The anticrypto) Must Read ~Daily view~Good day all 🌞🌚
In this description I will focus on why XRP has potential for huge gains, for a more technical approach I consider checking out more charts!🆗📈
XRP/Ripplelabs and its hidden forces: 🤨😄
Yes, as we know(hopefully,) XRP is not a good thing for crypto in any way shape or form. Have you ever asked yourself why the case of XRP versus the SEC has been so easy? Have you ever heard, "If it's to good to be true, it probably isn't true?"" 🤔👇
This entire thing was played out from the start. XRP is the banking crypto. It always has been. A Real-time settlement system, created mainly for executing transactions in the banking system. Well news flash✋📰! The same people that run the SEC also run the central banking system. Actually, XRP has been in talks with the central banks for some time (which they openly admitted.) So, why then would the SEC deliberately shoot themselves in the foot?
They wouldn't! This case was made to change the image of XRP. XRP was always destined to win this case as well, with the added benefit of getting many to sell their XRP. With retail traders ( average Joe's) selling, this Reduces the price of XRP substantially, allowing more of it to be bought up on the low from the whales🐳🐋, before boosting the price back up substantially. Speculatively speaking, the judge was bought from the start, I just didn't know who bought her. I see it clearly now.🦁
Supply and demand: 👁🗨
With the case wrapping up, demand shock is imminent. We're already seeing this happen. The difference lies in if XRP wins or settles. Settlement would likely end up in Ripple executives being barred from selling their XRP holdings for a period of time. In the beginning of XRP, 65 percent of the pre-mined coin was distributed amongst themselves(XRP developers,) while the remaining 35 percent was released to the market, much of which was sold off and I believe they bought a lot of it back it up as well. This is important because it would create an extreme supply shock in the market of XRP. These two forces combined would allow the price of XRP to skyrocket.💥
My advice is this: Play along! Jump on the gravy train🍳🚂 and than smash XRP into the ground, where it belongs. This so-called "cryptocurrency" doesn't even utilize blockchain technology. It is one hundred percent centralized! These people trying to manipulate our cryptocurrency markets, need to go back in the deep dark holes they crawled out of to begin with. 👍😅
So in conclusion, yes, I just bought XRP for the first time recently. It's a good bet, know thy enemy! I feel the same way about Elon. He's a complete sadist, if you don't agree, just look at the people he surrounds himself with🧙♀️🧙♂️. These people want us all to starve! I think it's time we flip the script once and for all. Time we beat them at their own game, one way or another.🤴This is why cryptocurrency gives me hope. The people pulling the strings think we're all stupid. We're not! This will result in their demise😁. It's not just XRP, there are cryptocurrencies throughout the market cap that were literally created for nefarious purposes. It's naïve to think otherwise. Look at our traditional finance system. We need to wreck these assets before it's too late, or Crypto will just become as broken as our traditional finance system. 👽
Today:🦈 ⏬
I invite you to read between the fine lines and think for yourselves! Do you read the crypto news? If so, who is publishing this news and why You should all be asking yourselves these questions. The only way out now is to think for ourselves and stop caring what other people think. I don't care what anyone else thinks anymore. Why should it matter, when I believe in my heart that I am right? That being said, always remember 🛑🛑🛑This is not financial advice🛑🛑🛑 Above are approximate targets based on fibs and major trend lines etc. I always recommend looking at multiple charts when making a big investment. Always have a stop loss ✋🛑💲 set🆗
Any thoughts 💭💡, questions 🙋♀️🙋♂️❓, good 👍, bad👎, happy 😄 or sad 😥, in the comments always welcome.
Jazerbay