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BTCUSD rising wedge approaching 200 MA at 10k.I'll play devil's advocate. Massive bull sentiment right now in the markets, but we are approaching the 200 daily MA which has firmly rejected BTC on the last two attempts. The 200 MA also overlaps neatly with trend line from the previous two lower highs formed on 3/21 and 4/26. Coincidentally, we are also approaching the giant round 10k number. Notice also waning volume with increasing price since the breakout on 4/12. Rejection here could lead to a retest of the long-term rising trend line, possibly in the low $7k range now. A breakout supported by big volume would give us the momentum to test the double tops around $11,750.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by mikeb23ft
4
potential BTC rising Wedge bullish breakout Seeing a lot of bullish momentum here as the last 4hr candle closed well above the rising wedge we were currently in. The current 4hr candle has shown a lot of bullishness too so odds are very good that we may have a successful bullish breakout from the wedge. One thing to keep a close eye on however is the stoch rsi levels...it is currently at overbought levels and will have to come down sooner than later...however following breakouts from chart patterns price action can stay at overbought conditions for more prolonged and extended periods of time than normal..so I wouldn't be surprised if we still had a little further up to go before we start to go sideways again or dip a little. Be prepared for a small drop to happen sooner rather than later though. The eve line/double bottom neckline convergence date was recently pushed back to May 9th when the eve trendline's trajectory needed to be widened slightly but as of now it is still on target for the 9th. Also even though we closed well above the rising wedge on the last candle, keep in mind you always want to see the following 4hr candle close above the wedge as well as a confirmation of the breakout...this current candle still has the ability to suddenly do a 180 degree turn and dip back into the wedge before the candle closes 3 and a half hours from now so just be prepared and try not to let FOMO cause you to buy way too much right before a potential dip...instead laddering in fractional amounts is much wiser. ..Of course this advice is only meant to be for myself not financial advice for others for a financial advisor I am not. Good luck and thanks for reading.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
Rising wedge much longer than originally thought; skimming EveTo quote Elliot Wave great Haejin Lee "Good morning, good afternoon, good evening depending on where you are at in the world." This update is switching back over to neutral even though my bias still leans towards the log side of things and I am currently still holding and laddering in when I see fit on different alts. As you can see after breaking up from the bullish ascending triangle pattern the rising wedge was much longer and stronger than we originally thought. Because of this the trajectory of the curving end trendline(in pink) had to be slightly adjusted again pushing its convergence date with the double bottom neckline back again this time to May 9th. We can see in it's current trajectory that it matches the angle of the rising wedge precisely and the rising wedge should have the price action skimming along the surface of the eve curve for a few 4hr candles to come yet. One positive sign here for the bulls is that we are currently still maintaining strong support from the 4hr t line(in yellow) with the most recent 4hr candle closing above it. We have shot a few bear wicks below it but the candle bodies keep continuously closing above it. A good sign that there is a real chance of us finding a way to potentially still break up bullishly out of this wedge. On the flip side of the bitcoin, the 4hr 50MA(AKA Buy/Sell Line) in orange has been halting the bulls forward progress pretty significantly as well and for right now the priceaction seems to be getting squeezed tighter and tighter between the 50ma and the tline. Eventually one will prevail and shoot the price action out of the squeeze with authority one way or the other. My hypothesis is that once the tline eventually teams up with the support of the eve trendline that level of double reinforced support should be enough to squeeze the priceaction over the 50MA and hopefully then up out of the rising wedge. This is somewhat speculation on my part, but I think this curved bottom rising wedge is a great time for big investors, whales, and other manipulative forces to simply stock up and fill their bags with certain altcoins that are destined to trigger their cup and handles before the big breakout, as well as also a great way for rsi, macd, and stoch rsi levels to cool down enough for an upward breakout. It could very well just be an accumulation phase so keep your eyes out on the altcoin market for if we are going up you will likely see certain altcoins start to pick up steam first and foremost...However, I'm well aware rising wedges have a higher probability of breaking downward and will be prepared for just such a breakdown, keeping my eyes open for any red flags, warning signals or craks in our support lines' foundations. It is for this reason that this idea will remain neutral rather than long despite my bullish bias. You and you alone of course choose your own side of the bitcoin on this one, for your financial advisor I am not. Good luck and thanks for reading.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered (BTC)Hey, fellas... One more update about this damn matrix we live! The last idea was: Things are little bit diferent. In daily chart is hard to see some new pattern, so, that's why i decided to see the H4. Pretty rising wedge forming, i believe we gonna down, even we have some bullish indicators. Check the MACD signal, it's about to be confirmed! But remember: we are controlled by bankwhales, so, they always decide the path. We just can study the movents, identify some behavior, keep beware of whales, making some money... BTC up, Alts down... BTC down slighly, alts can make us smile... BTC down hard, alts melt too... Now, Alts are in bullish, but we need to pay attention on the king movements! The pitchfork show exactly the trend i am believing. We are more closely to ger down, let's play with them! Ah, some guys do not like my songs, so, i invite them to click unfollow and check another ideas, because MY REAL LOVED FOLLOWERS like and ask me to post songs... So, for this ideia, the song is: "I've never seen beauty till this night I'm forever, yeah, I'm forever yours take back what's mine. just leave me in it and everything that I believe in. shes shaking. shes shaking. please act surprised. shes shaking. shes shaking. please act surprised. shes shaking. shes shaking. please act surprised. shes shaking. shes shaking" To listen full music, search for "Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered", singer "Chiodos". Remember: Always DYOR!!! Luv u, my loved fellas!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by lem4sk
4
BTC Closes 4hr candle above rising wedge.Just a continuation of the previous idea I was discussing on btc. I noticed that inside the bearish pattern was a hidden bullish pattern. It still needs either one more 4hr confirmation candle to close above as well or a huge surge in bull volume to confirm the breakout(whichever comes first) but hopefully if we do validate the breaklut, it will give us the necessary bull momentum to get back above the 4hr 50MA(in orange) which is serving currently as resistance. This close above has made me return to long on this idea...although as always I will be rpepared should we get thrown back into the bear pattern and out the other side. Be vigilant, resourceful, patient, and persevering and choose your own path wisely as this is not intended to be financial advice. Good luck and thanks for reading! I will link the previous idea to this one.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
BTC saved by a bounce up off the weekly charts tlineA bearish break down from the recent bullflag sent the price briefly plummeting and threatening to create a lower low by going under $8650 but the price was stopped just short of doing so at $8808 by the strong bounce support of the 1 week chart's tline(not shown but indicated here by the 100% fib extension). These 2 lines overlapping formed a double reinforced support and allowed for a very nice bounce which left a bottomwick there as it went upward until the body of the candle found support at a former longstanding trendline of strong support(in purple) sitting at 8900. . . from there with the rsi, stoch rsi, and mac d levels cooled off and having room to rise we have slowly pulled ourselves back above the 4hr chart's tline at $9056 (in yellow) and are using it as current support. It's crucial to keep this line as support as it is our best hope at continuing the bull climb. Now that we have closed several 4 hr candles under the 4hr 50MA (AKA Buy Sell Line) We are technically in a sellers market on the 4hr time frame. This usually leads to more downside as the path of least resistance...and with the bearish cross of the 8ema(tline) going under the 50MA that can lead to bearish price action as well of which we have already seen some of. The good news is, on the bigger 1 day chart...we are still well above the 1day buy sell line so on the daily we are still in a buyer's market...therefore with all the current strong support lines we have around the current price action, and because we are well above the 1 day chart's 50 MA, it is still very possible for us to find a way to climb back above the 4hr chart's buy/sell line as well. it won't be easy however because the price action is now forming a small rising wedge with a rounded bottom on the 4hr chart. Rising wedges are typically bearish patterns and tend to break down...it is for these collective reasons collectively that I am switching the current idea from long to neutral. I'm still holding my position but ready to ladder fractional shorts should we begin to break down. I have illustrated with green and red hyphenated/dotted trendlines how far one can expect a break down or up of the rising wedge. Lastly, important to note that the trajectory of the Eve line is still on target to converge with the double bottoms neckline on May 3rd. However a break down from this current rising wedge and any sort of prolonged fall could drastically change the projected date that the eve trendline will converge with it's neckline. Another reason we should hope we find a way back above the 4 hour 50ma soon because forming a few lower lows from here could potentially invalidate the adam and eve double bottom all together and absolutely no one wants that....which is why I think we may have a chance to break upwards. For now I will keep the idea neutral and do my best to be prepared and ready for either outcome. You choose your own path however, for this is not financial advice. Best of luck and thanks for reading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
Rising wedge breaks down at healthiest possible time for bullrun As I posted on my previous idea, we knew that the resistance of the rising wedge's top trendline was too strong for us not to eventually break down from the wedge, and just now in the last 4 hr candle we have confirmed that breakdown. I said in the last idea that ideally the 26th would be the most opportune time for the rising wedge to fall to and bounce up off of the eve trendline because the projected breakdown target of the rising wedge would hit its target and run out of steam right at the eve trendline which sets it up perfectly for a big bounce/rebound, one powerful enough to then break us back upwards from the rising wedge and take us up towards the neckline of the double bottom(dotted white horizontal line)....so far it appears that we have currently found some support at the 23.60% fib line at around $8689, and my guess is we will start forming a bear flag here. This is also the eprfect place to form a bearflag because the projected breakdown from a bear flag here matches the exact projected breakdown I have for the rising wedge...which would also run out of bear steam right at the super strong support of the eve trendline. If this happens the way I anticipate, then I expect a huge bounce at the eve line that will rocket us back up through the rising wedge and over 10,000. To have this happen now instead of closer to the rising wedge's apex is essential for us to preserve this double bottom pattern we are in. So for now I'm flipping my stance to short but only until it reaches around 8136 where I anticipate the bounce...and as I said in my idea yesterday I think it will reach that price point sometime on the 26th..so we will either see the bounce happen late evening of the 26th or sometime on the 27th. Of course this is all just what I feel to be the most probable outcome...its still very possible for us to form a head and shoulder pattern here and plummet further...I think probability favors the idea I'm siding with but I will as always be prepared for either outcome. You choose whatever path suits you best, for this is not financial advice. Thanks for reading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
rising wedge reaches apex at same time dbl bttm reaches neckline P rice action is still stuck inside the 4hr charts rising wedge(in blue) and judging by how strong its top trendline's resistance is, plud the crazy coincidence of where the rising wedges trajectory crosses paths with the eve bottom trendline(in pink)'s trajectory, we have very high probability of being stuck inside this wedge all the way up the double bottom until wedges very apex. At it's apex , we can see is where it crosses paths with the Eve trendline, which coincidentally enough happens to be Eve's apex as well(the neckline of the double bottom). It would make sense that it would wait until the apex of both to finally break...reaching a boiling point with both the bears and the bulls who would both be in a complete fit of hysteria if the price made it to that crossroads before breaking out of the rising wedge. Bears would be in hystrics because a rising wedge typically breaks bearish and is therefore a bearish chart pattern, and bulls would be in hstrics because we had made it all the way up to the neckline of the Eve Double bottom and just about to trigger it. Both bears and bulls would likely be too blinded by FOMO, FUD, and their own biases at that point for the bears to consider the double bottom, or for the bulls to consider the rising wedge and you would likely see a massive bear and bull fight ensue (more intense than we have seen yet) with several bear trap and bull trap fakeouts as a giant candlestick tug of war would begin. W hether we make it to that apex crossroads or not before this rising wedge breaks down. . .one thing I think will happen sooner or later regardless is an inevitable breakdown from the wedge. I side with probability and probability favors a breakdown from big rising wedges....also, the top trendline of the wedge has already proven several times that it is an extremely strong resistance. It would be healthiest for the uptrend if when therising wedge does finally breakdown, that it does so well before the crossroads of the 2 patterns' apexes. O ne good spot I've found where a breakdown could occur is on the 26th of April. You'll notice that I have drawn two dotted breakout trendlines around this time one breaking bullishly upward from the rising wedge(in green), and the other dotted trendlinee(in red) breaking bearishly downward. The reason I think April 26th is the optimal place for a bearish breakdown is because the projected bearish breakout drop target would take the price just down far enough to halt bear momentum on the eve trendline(in pink) which could then act as strong enough support that it rebounds the price action with a bounce so big that it sends it all the way back upward finally breaking above the rising wedge....which then the upward price breakout target would reach the top of the double bottoms neckline. The symmetry with the projected breakout target line is astounding to me that a break up or a break down will send us exactly to an extremely important trendline on the double bottom. They appear to be equidistant with this rising wedge cutting right smack dab through the dead center of them during that date...and chart patterns seem to really crave symmetry at times.. S o for these reason I can see the rising wedge breaking downward by the 26th then bouncing all the way back up and then some...but if that doesn't happen then I anticipate that we may see a breakdown right at the crossroads of the do patterns' apexes which could be disasterous and complete negate the double bottom pattern potentially if it fell too deep. THis means that for the good of the bull market we would prefer the breakdown to happen around the 26th of April if one is gonna happen.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
3
The 1day candle has reached the breakout target with precisionJust wanted to point out how precise the Bull flag projected breakout target was with where our current 1 day candle is stopping and finding resistance. No big surprise there because bull flag breakout projection targets are always pretty close but it's always fun when the price stops right smack dab at the projected target and just futher confirmation that TA works. As you can see we have broken above the top dotted blue trendline of the rising wedge....that trendline represents the candle bodies. However just to be safe since the bottom part of the wedge seemed to have more touches at the wick we can see where I have drawn another rising wedge top trendline in solid blue above the dotted rising wedge top trend line. The difference between the 2 is simply that the lower one represents the top of the rising wedge if we are using candle bodies to track the trend, and the top blue line represents the top trendline if we are using the wicks/shadows of the candlesticks to track the trend...so while it's an extremely positive sign that we have surpassed the dotted rising wedge trendline....and that could very well be all thats need for a bullish breakout from the wedge...probability is higher that the top blue trendline trending off of the candles wicks is more accurate on this pattern since the bottom is getting more touches on the wicks....you can see in our previous consolidation pattern both the wick pattern(symmetrical triangle dotted green lines) and the body trendline pattern(standard bull flag solid green lines) ended up both being valid and somehow synced up...with both having the exact same bullish breakout price target based on the size of the symmetrical triangle and size of the bull flag...that is very rare....more often then not its one pattern or the other that is more valid. So for that reason I often try to consider both just in case one may be more valid than the other. SO for now there's a possibility we have broken up out of the rising wedge...we were certainly finding resistance at the body trendline...but then again there was a fib line at that level too....however unless we see a ig surge of bull volume I'm not convinced we have broken through the rising wedge just yet...if we do not then odds are much better the trendline drawn on the candle wicks will be thevalid one....and if that's the case a the wick trendline will lengthen the rising wedge bringing it's apex to an exact point and intersection with my projected moment that the eve bottom trendline reaches the neckline of the Adam & Eve double bottom. Very peculiar...but because of this that simply strengthens the odds that my trajectory for the eve curved trendline is spot on. If so, we should have quite the bear/bull fight if we stay inside this rising wedge all the way until the adam and eve double bottom. Many bears will expect to break down from the rising wedge and tons of bulls will expect that we are going to break the neckline and go shooting up to $17,400 I personally will be leaning towards siding with the bulls since I will be factoring in the large descending wedge pattern from the weekly chart that we broke out of and the fact that it's upward projection target is 18,800. However I will be prepared for any breakdown from the rising wedge that may occur...although any that does has better odds of being a bear trap than it actually will have of negating or canceling out our adam and eve double bottom/weekly chart descending triangle breakout. You of course should make your own decision however for this is like all my other ideas not meant to be considered financial advice. Best of luck and thanks for reading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
2
Bullpennant has morphed into full ascending triangle at its apexNo longer a bull pennant but instead a full on ascending triangle. It has found strong resistance at the top trendline of the triangle and needs to close above 8960 for a breakout. We have cut above the psychological resistance of 9,000 a few times now and if we can close above 9,000 and flip 9,000 from resistance to support then I belie the bull run will then only jsut be getting started...a breakout up form this ascending triangle should give us enough bull momentum to break above the current 1 day charts rising wedge we are in which is the biggest threat the bears have in the arsenal right now to halt this bull run. the 8960 resistance is a resistance we've met several times in the past if you look to the left of the chart so it will definitely be a challenging one to surpass but for now probability still favors a break upwards and thus so do I...while at the same time I am completely prepared for the exact opposite outcome. Stay vigilant, make smart stop losses and you choose your own path because this is not meant to be financial advice. Thanks for reading and good luck!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
7
Current bullflag has morphed into ascending triangle bullpennantWe can see on the 4 hr chart the current bull flag has started to morph into an ascending triangle bull pennant. Probability is good it will break upward....that should trigger the cup and handle that is still in play if that cup and handle is valid....However this entire bull runs price action also appears to be trapped inside a rising wedge which are patterns that usually break downward...It is worth keeping an eye on because if somehow broke downward it's projected drop target could actually take it under the eve bottom trendline. I have marked it on this chart wth 2 blue trendlines. It was not the easiest trendlines to keep consistent so I'm hoping the wedge is invalid as I would really like to see this adam and eve bottom be validated and triggered. So hopefully the cup and handle is triggered instead and lifts us out of this potential rising wedge pattern.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
6
BAT Rising Wedge & Bearish Divergence - Due for a correctionAfter the news broke of BAT partnering with Dow Media, we saw massive gains of over 40%. Since then, the price has formed an ascending wedge, that is due for a breakout in the next little while. We have not seen any sort of correction after this jump and it looks like that time may have come. The RSI has also formed a clear bearish divergence and we are about to form a bearish cross on the MACD. We are at the bottom of the wedge right now, and might see another bounce before it breaks through. It might be a good idea to set a stop just below the trend line. Also note that while in the short time BAT is looking bearish, I am very very bullish on BAT in the medium to long term. We have at least one, if not two major events coming up soon. Firstly, BAT will roll out the working product by the end of June of this year, according to Eich. This is absolutely huge for BAT and what we have been waiting for since the ICO. Secondly, we have the rumor mill pumping about BAT being added on Coinbase, and we saw how this affected Bitcoin Cash. BAT has a much smaller market cap and will pump much easier. And again, while these are still rumours, there are quite a lot of hints pointing at this (see tweets by Eich and Armstrong, Coinbase to be accepting ERC20s, etc), a lot more than the ripple rumors we had late last year. *This is just my opinion - Not financial Advice*
BShort
by green_brow