Bitcoin CME BTC1! - Filled GAP + Bullish hammer on the weekly!- The huge CME gap on bitcon futures has been filled on the weekly time frame.
- Also we have a bullish reversal candle - hammer, which indicates trend reversal.
- The price is printing higher highs and higher lows, that is ofcourse very bullish.
- ABC correctnon (5-3-5) completed successfully (see my related idea for detailed Elliott Wave count below).
Rising Wedge
VisaVisa is a great stock, but everything points towards a near term drop.
1) At R1 resistance line (not pictured) with Standard Pivot Points enabled
2) Rising Wedge pattern - bearish
3) Resistance area provided by gap (see rectangle ) where no buying volume at all. It was solidly rejected yesterday intraday from this point. You can see the inverted hammer candle it left showing the rejection.
4) Chaikin Money Flow AND Chaikin Oscillator both have large divergences with price on the 4h bars. I consider these to be leading indicators.
I expect it'll drop to the $207-$209 area where there is both price action support and a daily bar pivot point . Re-evaluate from there.
Bitcoin's complete logarithmic Fib cycle . From 0.382 to 0.618.My hypothesis is that Bitcoin has found it's bottom. I came to this conclusion by multiple confirmations. The first is a large rising wedge formation that can be confirmed by looking at both the steady decrease in volume and the steady decrease of the MACD (histogram).
When taking the beginning of the rising wedge formation (outlined with the thick yellow trend lines) we see that it starts at the diagonal 0.382 Fib ratio and with it playing out as a decrease in the price all the way down to the diagonal 0.618 Fib ratio, we come to a full cycle of 1 when adding these two ratios together.
The end of the falling wedge (outlined by the white trend lines) ends at the first Fib retracement line when using the Fibonacci Retracement Tool on the log scale, starting at the bottom of March 2020, all the way up to the peak of November 2021. Which would be a logical place to bottom out.
HOTUSDT: RISING WEDGE, AN INDICATION OF BEARISH BIAS AHEAD?Hello Enthusiast Coin Addict! Here's short-term outlook for HOTUSDT , Support the Channel by smashing the FOLLOW and LIKES Button, then Share your opinion on the Comment Section below :)
*HOTUSDT is breaking out of the Rising Wedge Pattern
*Breakout of Rising Wedge Pattern could indicate a potential bearish movement in the near future
*HOTUSDT is also moving below the bearish trendline on H4 timeframe, we assume as long the price doesn't surprass the bearish trendline. HOTUSDT will continue creating a new low.
The roadmap will be invalid after exceeding the resistance/target level
*DISCLAIMER:
This isn't a recommendation to buy or sell cryptocurrency, only an Outlook from technical perspective.
DXY 96.04 - 0.43 % SHORT IDEA * PRICE ACTION & REVERSAL PTTNS HELLO EVERYONE
HOPE EVERYONE IS DOING GOOD HAVING A GOOD ONE.
NEW WEEK, NEW OPPORTUNITIES.
LOOKING AT THE DOLLAR INDEX
* The INDEX is currently trading in a RISING WEDGE , testing the ROOF of this structure.
- Short term the pair has currently entered an uptrend on the 4h chart this.
- A break above and close will invalidate the whole set up.
- Looking for SHORT entries on the INDEX this week should all the rules of the formation be met.
lets see how it goes
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Bitcoin "Normal" Bear Market TargetingTLDR: We have at least another 40-50% downside if the pattern holds
Introduction
Bitcoin and crypto has some fierce bear markets that can really affect people's psychology. To that end I think it would be helpful to show people a general pattern I have noticed and have been using to help me do my personal battle planning.
Two Simple Indicators
The NVT by aamonkey
This version of the NVT dynamically paints zones on the NVT so you can recognize when the price of bitcoin is high or low compared to the number of transactions it is pushing through. Despite all the noise about what bitcoin is, the blockchain is a decentralized payment network and the currency of that network can either be expensive or cheap compared to the number of transactions being run on the network.
When the NVT enters the red area it is a sign that a bubble is going to form and there are going to be a lot of of higher highs inbound. Once price has gotten above the upper red limit the party is about over. When it reenters the yellow band the bear market begins in earnest. Lots of trades can happen but ultimately the direction is down. Historically accumulation begins when the NVT is in the green. When the NTV starts to make its way out of the green area accumulation is broadly done and the cycle begins again.
The Gaussian Channel
The Gaussian channel default has a look back period of over 144, which means it is a very slow and very lagging indicator for what the average price was. So if price is at the center line of the the channel then the average price of bitcoin was roughly the same over 144 periods. Price is now below the centerline, which means that it is roughly down over the last 144 periods. When price falls out the bottom of the channel the channel turns red and we can expect a 40-50% drop.
Limited Conclusions
First, my conclusions are limited by the short life span of Bitcoin and the lookback periods of the indicators being used. The NVT can be used on lower time frames to find moments where the network is undervalued and therefor a buy to value investors but it still doesn't look proper on the first two years of available data.
Second, there is this disturbing rising wedge formation on bitcoin as shown in purple. Since these wedges break down the majority of the time my assumption is that this one will likewise break down. That means that investors looking to use what has worked the last two cycles could be in for a nasty surprise. more indecision comes because bitcoin could have a melt up once it
What I am doing and why
I believe in charts and patterns. As such I am only taking shorts on crypto and have only had 3-4 long margin trades over the last year and some of them were absolute busts. One reason I became bearish is consolidation patterns did not resolve themselves bullishly or they turned out to be reversal patterns and when that happens it takes a while for the bearish energy to work its way out of the system. I am taking the portion of my paycheck that I use for crypto trading and using it to fund shorts and I don't have any crypto other than stable coins. I am going to be using my targeting on the double top pattern to stop me from being too greedy on my shorts. Once the price gets close to the 1.618 to 2 level on the fib retracement, which is near wedge support it would be reckless to short open new shorts considering a bounce would be very likely. A move from 15,000 to 35,000 is very doable with a short squeeze.
Until I see a bullish pattern that is bigger than the purple rising wedge I am going to watch for the weekly NVT to go through the cycle and I don't feel like accumulating, I will wait for price to fight its way into the Gaussian channel and for the NVT to get out of the green. Here is a key point: rising wegdes that don't break down fully often were part of a channel. If I see price action finding support on the channel then that would be a larger chart pattern than the rising wedge and I can play that. Likewise the Keltner Channel and 200 week SMA have been great support before. If they appear to be working then I will look at putting on some long margin trades, but I don't see myself investing and holding crypto for a while.
[b/Abnormal Bear Market
The bottom of the wedge is the target for a mega bear market. This would probably mean that the Nasdaq bubble pops again and loses over 90% of its value. Commodities soar and people spend a fortune on making sure they can afford the bottom layer of Maslows Hierarchy of needs. If you don't need it for food or shelter, and it isn't addictive it will be sold off.
Linked Ideas
A broader view on why I am so bearish.
Volkswagen (VOW3.de) bearish scenario:The technical figure Rising Wedge can be found in the German company Volkswagen AG (VOW3.de) at daily chart. Volkswagen AG, known internationally as the Volkswagen Group, is a German multinational automotive manufacturing corporation. It designs, manufactures, and distributes passenger and commercial vehicles, motorcycles, engines, and turbomachinery, and offers related services, including financing, leasing, and fleet management. The Rising Wedge has broken through the support line on 25/01/2022, if the price holds below this level you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 12 days towards 164.62 EUR. Your stop loss order according to experts should be placed at 195.00 EUR if you decide to enter this position.
Volkswagen Group posted its lowest sales figures in 10 years in 2021 at 8.9 million deliveries, the carmaker said last Wednesday, and it said it expected supply chain conditions to remain volatile in the first half of this year. The Volkswagen brand saw an 8.1% drop in sales to just under 4.9 million units, with the biggest fall in China at 14.8%, although battery-electric vehicle sales in the country quadrupled.
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Dow futures idea for short and medium termOn a daily chart, DOW has closed below 200 MA which calls for a bearish sign. However, there is still some support for the rising wedge.
The trendline has broken very strongly on weekly.
I think we are close to a halfway mark on correction; possibly 4-5% is still left to go. After that, we should see some possible reversal due to the confluence of:
- reaching 23.6% on Fibonacci level;
- support at the megaphone pattern;
- the target of the wedge would be met; and
- most of the big tech stock would also be at support.
Atom ATOMUSDT - Bullish head and shoulders + ascending channel- ATOM is one of the greatest looking coins at this moment on Binance.
- We can see on the weekly chart an inverse head and shoulders pattern with tripple TOP resistance.
- ALL coins dropped hard, but ATOM's uptrend is still intact as the ascending channel still holds.
- Check my related idea about ATOMBTC chart below! It is very bullish.
BAJAJ FINANCE TRADE UPDATENSE:BAJFINANCE is consolidating in a rising wedge pattern after giving a breakout from flag pattern.
Price may potentially breakdown from this pattern and retrace as it has already given excellent momentum in the last week.
Be sure to add quantity after the momentum of breakdown fades away.
On the contrary, price can take big support from the bottom and breakout from this pattern - another opportunity to add more.
Regardless of your holding in this stock, you can short the futures market if a breakdown follows and then add more quantity in cash market.
Position size accordingly. HAPPY TRADING!
DOLLAR INDUSTRIES HIGH MOMENTUM TRADENSE:DOLLAR broke out from a major rising wedge pattern. Price did attempt a breakout prior to this but it could not sustain. Likewise, price gave a fake breakdown before giving a proper breakout and releasing huge momentum (25-30% in 1 week).
Strong volumes towards virgin territory is another bullish sign in favor of this trade playing out.
One may skip this trade because price has already moved 15% post breakout, But any small consolidation or a considerable retrace in price is a golden chance to enter and ride this momentum.
Keep this stock in a watchlist. Don't miss out this beautiful trade. Lookout for any kind of retracement or consolidation and enter blindly. Potential 1:3, 1:4 Risk reward trade.
Targets: 600/700/850+
sl: below 465 *as per price action (Opt for a more dynamic sl once price retraces to a lower level near breakout highs)
Position size accordingly. WAIT FOR RETRACE. DON'T JUMP IN. LET GO OF THE TRADE IF PRICE CONTINUES TO RALLY IN ONE DIRECTION.
HAPPY TRADING!
maticusdt risingwedgeThis is a personal opinion analysis. Please do not use in your transactions.
Maticusdt seems to be building a risingwedge pattern.
The support lines are marked in the chart.
Please write me your comments to improve the analysis