Risk!!!
POSSIBLE 400 PIPSStructure has been broken on the 4H timeframe.
Prime Entry ... 0.6235
30 Pips Stoploss
Target ... 0.6630
Risk : Reward
1 : 13
Move stoploss to breakeven around 0.6355 (i.e 38.2 level of the CD Leg of the harmonic pattern)
Manually exit position if price closes below 0.6235 ON THE 4H TIMEFRAME
Avery clear signelHello!
I have been away for over a year now. I'm sorry for my absence. I have been working on a new business venture. I now have more time on my hands to produce charts again! With that said.
We are facing here a very clear inversion in bonds as the bond market sees buying and selling. Keep an eye on that as the market is pricing in a rate hike in my honest opinion.
Futures Trading & Terminology ExplainedTrading futures is not for beginners and should only be attempted by experienced traders with a strong understanding of the market as a whole and especially a strong understanding of Risk Management & Trading Psychology.
Below I have explained some of the Risks involved in Trading Futures:
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Liquidation
When liquidation occurs your position is forcibly closed due to not having sufficient balance to keep your borrowed positions afloat. When trading futures on high leverage, your losses can quickly reach double digit percentages and if they exceed the remaining balance in your account you can be liquidated.
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Leverage
Leverage, or to be leverage refers to the act of borrowing money off the exchange to trade. When a trader has insufficient balances to cover their leveraged position left in the account a liquidation call can occur. Keep track of your margin ratio and keep it low to prevent liquidations, and use risk management techniques.
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Volatility
Market volatility can be high in emerging markets, and many traders love volatility for its big swings to profit, but in futures trading considering losses are potentially heightened by leverage volatility can become a dangerous thing to a trader. In volatile markets market stop losses can often trigger much further than the triggered price adding to losses, or even resulting in liquidation.
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Stop Hunting
Stop hunting occurs when large entities such as corporations, or “Whales” purposefully target the stop loss orders of traders, knowing that at these areas when a large amount of orders is triggered a contrarian position can be acquired by these entities by buying or selling into a large stop trigger event, by doing this they can easily buy or sell a large amount of an asset when also having very little affect on the price in the short term.
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Exchange Downtime
During extreme market movements sometimes exchanges can crash and traders are unable to login, close or open positions on the exchange, Liquidation events, Market Crashes, Manipulation, Volatility, Stop Hunting may all come into play when Exchange Downtime occurs and it is a risky endeavor to be positioned in borrowed money when a exchange is offline.
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Market Crashes
Market Crashes, Black Swan Events etc. can occur frequently in emerging markets, infrequently in traditional markets. During Market Crashes huge cascades of liquidations can occur taking out over leveraged long traders.
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Manipulation
Stop Hunting is also a form of Market Manipulation. Sometimes vested interests work together to hold down the price of an asset or push up the price to trigger orders, and shake out retail players.
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Overtrading
Due to the heightened losses applicable from borrowed money, overtrading on futures/leverage can quickly wipe out your balance, it is key that you understand how to size your trades correctly as well as managing your risk and mental state to avoid this occurring.
Credit Market Signals "Risk-Off"One chart illustrates the paradigm shift in risk assessment since the start of November. See the weekly GoNoGo Trend chart of option-adjusted corporate bond credit spreads which have now completely reversed trend conditions since Nov 1st, 2021 – from purple & pink “NoGo” bars through amber neutral and now the strongest blue “Go” bars as GoNoGo Oscillator broke out of a max squeeze to reach overbought extremes and consolidating gains.
Credit spreads indicate the credit risk perceived by market participants/investors and are dynamic reflecting real-time market conditions, unlike credit ratings which are revised with some lag. They reflect the risk premia that investors apply to the debt of the issuer, relative to government debt. Or more precisely, the difference in yield between any debt security and the relevant government benchmark of the same maturity. Credit spreads often widen during times of financial stress wherein the flight-to-safety occurs towards safe-haven assets such as U.S. treasuries and other government securities.
Throughout 2021, credit spreads have remained at historic lows and remained within the tightest decile of the past 25 years. Credit spreads have clearly bottomed and are now rising. This measure of investor's risk tolerance will have negative implications for highly valued growth equities and we could see headwinds for tech, discretionary, and communications sectors as well as weak relative performance for indexes like the Nasdaq vs DJIA.
USD pretty much undecided...USD is in a sideway move...waiting for something,could be because of holiday season?hahaha
Hello there!
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Beating the rake - Know your trading feesLet’s talk about trading fees. This is an area that most people who trade don’t put enough thought into, but it can make a huge difference to your bottom line. This is especially the case when dealing with percentage based commissions in combination with leverage.
Many people, especially those who mainly trade crypto, will be using services that charge percentage based commissions, with fees that can be as high as 0.5% ! But even if you’re trading at one of the more trader-friendly exchanges you’re likely to be paying in the region of 0.1% taker fees for spot trading and 0.04 - 0.06 % taker fees on futures.
That sounds pretty cheap, right? 0.06% fee on a trade sounds almost negligible, which is why most casual traders don’t pay too much attention to it. Firstly though, you need to remember that this is the fee for both buying and selling, so for a round trip (buy and sell, assuming taker fee of 0.06% for each) you’re paying 0.12%
Suddenly that starts to look a bit more significant, especially for short term intraday traders and scalpers.
Let’s take a quick example. Let’s say you’re an intraday trader paying 0.06% taker fees on futures, and your typical Risk/Reward is aiming for a 1% gain and a 0.5% loss for an R of 2.
The breakeven rate with an R of 2 is a 33.33% win rate, which is why many traders aim to trade this way. If they can achieve a win rate in the region of 50% they can be highly successful.
But then we take your trading fees into account.
That 1% average win becomes 0.88 % after your 0.12% round trip of taker fees.
And your 0.5% average loss becomes 0.62 % after your round trip to fee-town.
So now with an average win of 0.88% and average loss of 0.62% your R is down to 1.42!
That means your breakeven win rate has changed from 33.33% to 41.33%!
What if you’re aiming to catch even smaller percentage moves?
If you were aiming for 0.5% average wins and 0.25% average losses for Risk/Reward of 2, but without considering fees, you might be in for a nasty surprise.
Your average win would now be 0.38% and your average loss would be 0.37% after accounting for 0.12% round trip fees on all trades.
The 2 R you were aiming for to require a 33.33% win rate actually becomes 1.02 R, requiring a 49.33% win rate to break even!
And as a last example, let’s say you take a different approach. Perhaps you’re the type of trader aiming to take equal sized wins and losses but aiming for a 60 - 70% win rate to make your money.
At 1% average win and loss (1 R), your wins become 0.88% and your losses become 1.12% after fees. Instead of a 50% break even rate you now require a 56% win rate just to break even!
And if you aim for 0.5% average win and loss (1 R) your average wins become 0.38% and your losses become 0.62% after fees, requiring a 62% win rate to break even!
Can you overcome those odds?
The key takeaway here is that factoring trading fees into your trading plan is absolutely vital to understanding your risk/reward.
The smaller the trading fees are as a percentage of your average trade, the less impactful the fees will be on your bottom line.
To keep your trading fees small as a percentage of your average wins and losses, the simplest way is obviously to trade for larger average wins and losses, taking a swing trading approach with smaller position sizing.
Alternatively, most exchanges/brokers will offer cheaper trading fees for “makers” using limit orders, as opposed to “takers” using market prices. This discount for maker fees will usually slash your fees by 50% - 80%. Many will also offer additional discounts for using a specific token for paying fees (e.g. BNB or KCS) or various discounts for VIP levels/tiers. Do not underestimate the value of these discounts, they can have a very substantial impact on your bottom line, especially if you are a short term intraday trader or scalper. Just a 50% saving on fees could be enough to turn a short term trader from a breakeven trader to a winning one.
BTC Bar Pattern and Pi-Cycle A bar pattern of the Jan-May higher high's has been taken and over-layed the current structure. The DMA's are the Pi-Cycle top model (top is a moving avg of 350*2, bottom is a 111 day MA) have served as critical lines of resistance and support.
What am I watching?
- First, the bar pattern is clearly similar, however, less explosive. (Less buying power and investor impetus).
- In order to stage a leg to the downside, we must complete the LH from a top and break the 111DMA.
- Trend Line has to be broken.
- Lastly, strong sell volume can be appreciated during a top, followed by weak buying volume the following top.
Just my .02
Cheers
Stonk-Crypto Update (#46) : Contagion (of Risks not C19)Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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Phil
Emotional Control in InvestmentWarren Buffett famously said, “Be greedy when the market is fearful, be fearful when the market is greedy.” Knowing fear and greed in investing is therefore a good thing.
Our ancestors in the past, thanks to fear, knew how to run away from predators so as not to be killed. And also because of greedier than other animals, people know how to cultivate, store food, and then build a prosperous society like today.
However, it is no coincidence that the EQ index argues that the more able a person is to control his emotions, the more likely he is to succeed in life. The same is true in stock investing. Even the skill of mastering emotions is also put on the top by experts, which is a decisive factor in winning - losing, gaining - losing.
So what should we do to control emotions in investing, so that the actions of "fear" and "greed" appear at the right time and in the right place?
How do emotions affect investment decisions?
Let's analyze the characteristics of an investor's work. Every day, when the stock market opens, we begin to sit in front of a price list, with the numbers flashing green and red and changing every second, every minute.
Looking at the boring price list, we turn our eyes to other investors, groups - group chats on social networks, to see what people are buying, selling, what is the target price, holding this code or that code for a while. How long,... Then when the price list was off, even the night had fallen, we were still thinking, lost in the discussion and analysis.
And emotional trading also emerges from here. For example, if we are happy, we are blind to the risks. If we are afraid, we miss good opportunities. If we're angry, we're willing to take great risks to try to undo the consequences (revenge trading).
Living in that variable environment, if we do not have enough bravery and knowledge, it is easy to buy and sell irrationally and lack discipline. And so the account also "exploded" itself.
If we do not have enough bravery and knowledge, it is easy to trade irrationally and lack discipline.
How to control emotions in investing?
Shaping an investment method for yourself
When investing in stocks, in many cases, you have to make decisions continuously, and you have to decide quickly. But to make quick and accurate decisions, it is necessary to analyze and process information, set investment goals, plan allocations, etc. There is a lot of work to do, to make a decision. good.
To make things simpler, you need to have an investment system, or investment method. This helps you to perform actions according to a pre-programmed logic sequence. It will be the directional compass, so that every time you need to make a decision, you just need to check the conditions of the system and follow it.
For example, you can stick to a periodic investment plan (SIP - Systematic investment plan). By continuously investing small amounts, you take advantage of long-term cost averaging (DCA). Thanks to the habit of investing periodically over a long period of time in familiar assets, you will be more prudent in risky speculative decisions.
Have yourself an investment system that helps you perform actions according to a pre-programmed logic sequence
Building investment knowledge
After reading the above idea, many of you will probably think: "I don't know anything about investing, how can I build my own investment method?" That leads to the second element that you need to focus on developing, which is building investment knowledge.
Referring to investment knowledge, you will probably think of PE, EPS, valuation methods, ... (if according to fundamental analysis), or MA, RSI, technical indicators, wave counting ,... (if according to technical analysis).
This is not wrong, but if you don't look at the investment method, the above knowledge can become a fragment of knowledge. Such knowledge must be systematized from the perspective of a specific investment method and way of thinking. You can find these knowledge in the section
To make things easier, you can look to investment advisors, brokers, even fund managers who you know for sure have their own investment systems.
However, when receiving investment advice, no matter what method it is, be sure to learn from an expert the important components of an investment method:
Clear, objective (non-emotional) logic to make buying/selling decisions.
Investment history follows the above logic, applied in Vietnam market.
Principles of portfolio allocation, appropriate investment size.
Risk management principles should clearly state what we will do when a risk occurs.
In addition, investment knowledge is not only professional knowledge but also general understanding. For example, you should know in advance that no method is all-encompassing; a potentially high-return opportunity also carries a high degree of risk; It's not like businesses and the whole economy can grow by tens of percent per year, but you just invested in stocks and want to earn 5 times 10 times,...
Don't stand on this mountain looking at that mountain
16 years of experience in the stock market gives me the opportunity to meet a lot of people. Many of my clients confided to me: “I just need to make a steady profit of a few dozen percent per year.”
However, they weren't happy when they only held a 35% increase, while a certain X doubled. But there are also lucky people, who bought the correct X code and doubled it, but still regretted: "If I know that, I will buy more".
In this case, instead of comparing the actual profit with the original target, they compare it with someone else's profit, or the profit it could have been. No matter how much they say, they will have a reason to regret anyway.
The solution to not falling into this situation is to return to your own investment goals and methods. If this still isn't strong enough, try linking that goal to the important things in your life.
In software development, there is a concept called user story, written in the format: “Is…, I want… to……”. I love this style of writing because it focuses on the subject and the goal.
Applying investment, for example, we can write the following: “As a father, I want to invest to have money for my daughter to study abroad at the age of 18.” I believe if you always remember this , you will be less emotional, less reckless and stick to your investment plan more, because you know this determines your daughter's future.As a father, you cannot bring your child's future to life. can bet.
As another example, we could write: “As the breadwinner of the family, I want to invest to have a sustainable passive income source, so that my family doesn't have to worry about finances when I get old.” If you develop If you can express this, you must have remembered your responsibilities, your goal of financial peace of mind.Emotional decisions make you insecure, so there is no chance to dominate.
Enjoy the emotions of investing in a controlled manner.
Conclude
Having emotions is a natural mechanism of all living things, including humans. Therefore, if emotions become too dominant, we should not reject them to the extreme, but should only moderate and control them to an appropriate intensity to facilitate work.
Experiencing the emotions of investing is like climbing to the top of Fansipan. Climbing to the top may not be fun, if we don't experience the cold, the slippery pain when climbing the slope, the times we have to struggle with the mud, we have to swing into each bamboo grove to go.
Investment is similar. Accept and enjoy emotions, but don't let them hinder us from reaching our destination, let them overwhelm our goals, and erase our motivation.
How To Calculate Risk/Reward To Trade & Invest In Crypto MarketHi everyone:
Today I want to make this educational video on how to calculate your risk/reward in trading and investing in the cryptocurrency market.
Many newcomers in the industry are not aware of the importance of risk management. So today let's give out different examples of them on how to properly calculate the $, %, and setting the SL/TP.
This video is intended to help traders and investors to understand how to calculate the amount to risk per trade, or per investment purpose.
I will give different examples of going long and short in trading, as well as buying coins for the purpose of investment.
Doesn't matter what crypto broker exchange you use, this calculation/formula will work, you will just need to do some simple math to get to the right numbers.
Example 1:
Want to go long on BTC in a trade
Scenario:
Trading Account $12,000
Risk 1% of your trading account
Want to go long on BTC when price hits $70,000
You want the Stop Loss @$66,000,
and a TP @ $80,000
Calculation:
Calculate your 1% of the trading account:
$12,000 Account x 0.01 $120 per trade
Divide the $ you willing to risk to the SL amount
$120 / $4000 = 0.03
Set your entry order or market order
for 0.03 BTC @ $70,000 price
0.03 x $70,000 = $2,100
(This is the amount you will need in your trading account
to execute this position.
If you have leverage then its less $ needed)
Set your SL at $66,000
If price hits your SL, your order would be
0.03 BTC x $66,000 = $1,980
$2,100 - 1,980 = $120 = 1% of your account
Set your TP at $80,000
If price hits your TP, your order would be
0.03 BTC x $80,000 = $2,400
$2,400 - $2,100 = $300 = 2.5% of your account
Example 2:
Want to go long on ADA in a trade
Scenario:
Trading Account $800
Risk 1% of your trading account
Want to go long on ADA when price hits $2.30
You want the Stop Loss @1.70
Calculation:
Calculate your 1% of the trading account:
$800 Account x 0.01 = $8 per trade
Divide the $ you willing to risk to the SL
$8 / $0.60 = 13.34
Set your entry order or market order
for 13.34 ADA @ 2.30 price
13.34 x 2.30 = $30.68
(This is the amount you will need in your trading account
to execute this position.
If you have leverage then its less $ needed)
Set your SL at $1.70
If price hits your SL, your order would be
13.34 ADA x $1.70 = $22.68
$30.68 - $22.68 = $8 = 1% of your account
Set your TP at $4.00
If price hits your TP, your order would be
13.34 ADA x $4.00 = $53.36
$53.36 - $30.68 = $22.68 = 2.83% of your account
Example 3:
Want to go short on TRX in a trade
Scenario:
Trading Account $54,000
Risk 1.5% of your trading account
Want to go short on TRX when price hits $0.11
You want the Stop Loss @ $0.13
Calculation:
Calculate your 1.5% of the trading account:
$54,000 Account x 0.0150 = $810 per trade
Divide the $ you willing to risk to the SL
$810 / $0.02 = 40,500
Set your entry order or market order
for 40,500 TRX @ 0.11 price
40,500 x 0.11 = $4,455
(This is the amount you will need in your trading account
to execute this position.
If you have leverage then its less $ needed)
Set your SL at $0.13
If price hits your SL, your order would be
40,500 TRX x $0.13 = 5,265
$5265 - $4455 = $810 = 1.5% of your account
Set your TP at $0.07
If price hits your TP, your order would be
40,500 TRX x $0.07 = $2,835
$4,455 - $2,835 = $1,620 = 2% of your account
Example 4:
Want to buy ETH to hold for long term as investment
Scenario:
Investing Account $20,000
Risk 10% of your investing account
Want to buy ETH to hold for long terms
Want to enter when price hits $4,900
Calculation:
Calculate your 10% of the investing account:
$20,000 Account x 0.10 = $2,000 per investment
Divide the $ you willing to risk to the price you want to enter
$2,000 / $4,900 = 0.4082
Set your entry order or market order
for 0.4082 ETH @ $4,900 price
0.4082 x $4,900 = $2000
(This is the amount you will need in your investing account
to execute this buy.)
You want to lose no more than 25% of your original $2,000 investment.
$2,000 x 0.75 = $1,500
$1,500 / 0.4082 = $3,674.67
Set your alert and SL at $3,674.67
If price hits your alert/SL, your order would be
0.4082 ETH x $3,674.679 = $1500
$2,000 - $1500 = $500 = 25% of $2,000
You want to gain about 50% of your original investment before selling.
$2,000 x 1.50 = $3,000
$3,000 / 0.4082 = $7,349.34
Set your alert and TP at $7,349.34
If price hits your TP, your order would be
0.4082 ETH x $7,349.34 = 3,000.00
$3,000 - $2,000 = $1,000 = 50% of $2,000
Example 5:
Want to buy MATIC to hold for long term as investment
Scenario:
Investing Account $1,500
Risk 20% of your investing account
Want to buy MATIC to hold for long terms
Want to enter when price hits $2.25
Calculation:
Calculate your 20% of the investing account:
$1,500 Account x 0.20 = $300 per investment
Divide the $ you willing to risk to the price you want to enter
$300 / $2.25 = 133.34 MATIC
Set your entry order or market order
for 133.34 MATIC @ $2.25 price
133.34 x $2.25 = $300
(This is the amount you will need in your investing account
to execute this buy.)
You want to lose no more than 50% of your original $300 investment.
$300 x 0.50 = $150
$150 / 133.34 = $1.1249
Set your alert and SL at $1.1249
If price hits your alert/SL, your order would be
133.34 MATIC x $1.1249 = $149.99
$300 - $149.99 = $150.01 = 50% of $300
You want to gain about 75% of your original investment before selling.
$300 x 1.75 = $525
$525/133.34 = $3.9373
Set your alert and TP at $3.9373
If price hits your TP, your order would be
133.34 MATIC x $3.9373 = $525
525 - $300 = $225 = 75% of $300
Any questions, comments and feedback welcome to let me know.
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Jojo
S&P500 outlook 11/12 BIG day today Do we continue to hold key levels & digest while letting bulls grow in accumulation / aggression?
IF we loose this current flag, very possible, markets will look much weaker.
This current ATH flag is very weak. couple days of holding but very easily could sell like 11/10
US30 major monthly divergence - bearish for many months!CURRENCYCOM:US30
start scaling in for sure short 1/5 size whole position with risk management cushion to scale in more, optimising overall basket.
look for 4H timeframe to add later, after 4H timeframe reaches 30 on RSI once and hits first RSI resistance or Ichimoku cloud resistance.
Bonds Test Higher LevelsZN is testing highs at 131'12. We have tested this level twice but are facing some resistance as confirmed by two red triangles on the KRI. The next level above is 131'20, and this will be the next target if we can break 131'12. The Kovach OBV is progressively getting stronger, but has currently leveled off. Bonds will likely range a bit until we see more momentum come through. We will have support from below from 131'02, then 130'26.