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Risk!!!

RISK 2 REWARD ratio is the key I know almost every trader has asked themselves these questions: How come I keep losing?! WHY?! Why do I keep getting stopped out?! Why is it taking so long? ! Is it even possible?! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Today I have some good news for you maybe you already know this maybe you don't, but this is for those folks who do not know the power of a good Risk to Reward ratio. Let me tell something real quick you do not have a 80% winning rate not 70% I am going to say not even a 50% winning rate to be profitable ( Hold ON A MINUTE man HOLD the bus man... serious) dead serious. With a risk to reward ratio of 1:2.5 you only need to win 30% of your trades to be profitable ( see below ) SAY YOU execute 10 trades and you only win 3 so essentially 30% LOST:7 WON:3 Total loss: Total profit: 7 * 1 = 7 3 *2.5 = 7.5 Total profit - Total loss = +0.5 Now even though 0.5 is not a lot at least it's not a loss. But there are a few things extra to keep in mind : 1) Your risk to reward has to stay the same for the period of the 10 trades 2) Your lot size needs to stay the same 3) AND as possible try to keep the amount of pips the same for your ratio because it does not help if you win 3 trades and you decided to set one of your positions SL as 100 pips and its TP as 250 pips and the rest of the positions SL as 20 pips and TP as 50 pips. If you lose the the big trade and hit the SL of a 100 pips its gonna through everything out of wack. So be sure to try and keep everything as consistent as possible and it will be a matter of time before you see profits. Trade with H
by Trade_with_H
Risk management helps with many psychological issues in tradingLet’s also talk about another so very important, and often undervalued part of risk management. Risk management really does help me to stay emotionally stable during trading. Just think about it: If I place a trade with a 30% risk and I lose it, it will hurt so much, and it will allow my negative sides, my revenge nature to come out and start dominating. I will be stressed, I will not sleep well if this trade will stay overnight. And even if I win, I will be emotionally and mentally tired, I will most likely not be able to continue trading in a normal state of my mind and emotion. The next thing is not so obvious, but if you have bad and not consistent risk management, you will NOT TRUST YOURSELF. Can you imagine how destructive it is on a subconscious level, how much stress it causes? You start your trading day and deep inside you know you can do many bad things with your account because you know how often you just follow an impulsive behavior, and how often you revenge trade. You know it can be so bad you can actually blow your account in 1 day, as it happened before. Even if you made a self promise to trade according to your plan. And on the contrary, what happens if I regularly, consistently risk 0.25-1% of an account. Many GOOD things will happen, both obvious and not so obvious. First of all, after entering a trade, I will most likely be able to stay relatively calm - I know if I lose, I’ll lose only 0.25-1%. I know I can trust myself and I will not move or remove my stop loss. I'm protected. It will help me to be pleasantly curious about how my trade will develop. If it goes my way, I will be naturally glad it was good, but I will not fall into euphoria and become over-excited, because I risked only 1% and my gain will be 1-2% only. That's very nice of course, but not too much to bring me to a state of euphoria. If it goes against me, I will allow it to do so and hit my SL. And after it does so, I will then realize that it’s totally fine to lose a trade. I can lose even 10 of them in a row, and I will still have 90% of my account ready to trade the next day, next week, next month, and next year. I believe good risk management lets you feel you DO control at least something in your trading, you will feel you can allow yourself to be mistaken about the trades you take. That's why I think we should not concentrate on the ways of eliminating overtrading, stress during trading, emotional trading, fear, and so on. Instead, we should focus on good risk management. I will post more about practical ways of improving risk management.
UEducation
by Yelli_trades
1
How much to risk per trade? Returns and drawdowns.Between 1990 and June 2000 the median hedge fund (there are not that many that started in 1990) had an annual return of 16.3% and max drawdown of 28.5% according to MORGAN STANLEY. Keep in mind the 2/20 destroys profits. (16.3%*1.25)+2% =  22.4%, and 28.5-2 = 26.5%. So what the median fund actually did I I did not mess it up was get 22.4% return a year and a max drawdown of 26.5%. Of course that drawdown is the worst over a 10 year period. The S&P 500 has an annual return of 17.2% and max drawdown of 15.4%. What is interesting is to look at the details, for example the few specialist credit between 90 and 00. The smallest return one had this to show: 11.5% annual, -4.9% max down. The biggest return one had this to show: 17.4% annual, -19.4% max down. More returns but with much more drawdown. Here is the paper: www.morganstanley.com A portfolio of hedge funds, since they're not all completely correlated, would do much better than the S&P500 in particular on the drawdown side. Renaissance says their medaillon fund uses an average of 12.5 leverage and takes 8000 trades at the same time 4000 short & 4000 long to reduce risk even more. If this is true it means going in each position with 0,15% of their account. Not sure how far their stop is but has to be less than 10% of a share price, this means a risk of 0.015% per trade at most, now since there are 8000 at the same time it would be 8000 times more than this, but since there are shorts and longs it sorts of evens out and who know what their real risk is? All we know is it is very small that's for sure. But leverage costs money, and what RenTec did was since their risk was so small and they do a ton of volume, they partnered with banks that offer them extremely cheap leverage. And then they averaged 66% a year in the past 30 years, with a fund capped at 10 billion. The secret is diversification, it reduces dramatically risk which allows for better returns. But we have to come up with this diversification, not easy to find another good place to invest in, another good uncorrelated strategy. And when we find those additional sources, we are not RenTec we have to pay a big price for leverage so we cannot just scale it hard. Certain "strategies" will help reduce risk but they also cap returns much and leverage is not free so it might not be worth it depending on the person. I just want to take a look at a few non-managed "low fee" "safe" no brain funds. Examples for the 10-year period ending January 31, 2017: Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth Fund (MUTF:VASGX) has a Maximum Drawdown of 47.6% and annual return of 4.7%. UBS Global Allocation Fund (MUTF:BPGLX) has a Maximum Drawdown of 48.7% and annual return of 2.6%. This fund has the rather unappetizing combination of low return and a large Maximum Drawdown. LoL this is so bad. And all the grandpas are loving it, they think they found the holy grail and pat each other on the back. Add to this the fact that most people withdraw at the worse time... Over the same 10 years period the S&P500, returned an annualized 7.024% dividends reinvested (4.8% otherwise) with a max drawdown of 57.8% From 2000 to 2020 (september) it had annualized returns of 6.23%. From 1871 to 2019 it returned about 9% (dividend reinvested) - 6.8% if we adjust for inflation, with a max drawdown of Adolf Hitler & Auschwitz the ultimate price. So we're about in the average with 6%. Growth is slowing down (demographics, tech limits, earth limits...) so we will probably average less than 6% in the future. From 2007 to 2017 the top strategic DIY portfolio recipes had returns of ~typically 11% with max drawdowns of also about 11%. Ray Dalio pure alpha 2 has returned 11.5% / yr in the last 20 years and max drawdown I'm not sure I think it was 8% recently and much less before that. Those numbers are hard to find seriously... But well we get an idea of how far it can get pushed. An article from 2017: "Investors earned an average of 4.67% on mutual funds over the last 20 years (Source: www.creditdonkey.com)" of course there is no mention of drawdown because who cares am I right? Mutual funds are not for the best & brightest of investors. Big risk is not a magic trick. "Big risk" does not mean "big return but with big risk". It means NO returns. It means losing with a winning strategy 😂.
Education
by MrRenev
1
If you'll flip an account, when you will blow it again?3. If you flip an account, like you want, how long would it take to blow it again? Let’s imagine you have a small account like $2000-$3000. What do you want from it? Most likely, you would like to live from it, so depending of a country you live in you’ll need somewhat between $600 to $2000 a month for a decent living, right? In this scenario, you’ll need to make 20-100% of your account per month. In order to make this much money, you will need to be either a super lucky and super professional trader with an astonishing winrate and good consistent risk reward. Most likely you are not. I am not if you ask me. So I don’t have astonishing WR and good RR. So what can I do to make this much of money, when my trades are not so good? Any ideas? Yes, I can risk more per trade and HOPE this trade will go in my direction and also HOPE that somehow I will stay calm seeing all this huge profits just grow and grow, and also HOPE I will be able to not close the trade when the pullback happens, and also HOPE I will stay calm and emotionally stable if the trade after having being in big profits will turn back and go to breakeven or a drawdown. Sounds familiar? So actually how mentally strong this person should be to bear all these emotionally? And how many times in a row the the person will be able to do it? Is it realistic to expect consistency from this style of trading in the long term? But ok, let’s imagine, someone is able to produce 100% a month from his $2k account? Can you imagine how emotional this person will feel? He definitely knows that 5-10% a month is already a great, great result (if done consistently though), and he just made 100%. He will probably think he’s the king of the universe and he will probably try to make even more than 100% that next month. Really the only thing he does is taking a big, big run off the high high cliff and soon he will be dead, meaning he’s account will be blown. This kind of thinking will help me to better understand the absurd of the desire to flip an account, at least for myself.
Education
by Yelli_trades
Importance of Risk Management - let's talk about it againIntroduction We all hear from everywhere about risk management. They all say the same: “It’s important, it will help you to protect your capital, etc., etc.” But today I wanted to talk to myself about risk management in more detail. And I’m sure I will have a much better understanding of practical risk management in forex after this - I will talk through its psychological aspects, about RM role as the main principle of trading. I will do it in “talking to myself” format to remind myself in the first place about how important risk management it. Don’t be fooled by the simplicity of risk management. Unfortunately, risk management in FX is too simple. Dangerously simple I would say. In its basic form, good risk management means risking 0.25%-1% of your account per one trade. That’s it. Just do that and most likely you will have an unbreakable account for at least several months. Yes, of course, you can have a drawdown due to emotional trading or revenge trading or whatsoever. But because you will have good risk management, I will have so much time to stop trading emotionally, I can even take 10 revenge trade or 10 absolutely random stupid trades - and your capital will still be in place, even if you will lose every and each of these 20 trades. I ask myself the question - how do people blow their accounts? Very often it happens in 1-5 days of bad, emotional trading, even if the whole months before was good. I’m talking from my experience though, and I don’t know - maybe everyone else is good as their risk management. So why really it happens? In the first place because of bad risk management. Not because of the strategy, not because of the market acting randomly and not in my favor. Because I don’t want to have a simple yet powerful rule of risking 0.25-1% per trade. I start to complicate things and want to risk 5-20% at first, to gain some profits, and only THEN I want to implement good RM. Theoretically, it’s possible, yes, but in reality, I lose my mind and blow my account. So don’t be fooled by the simplicity of RM - because it’s not easy. Because it’s not easy to control yourself while facing a possibility of doubling your account in 1 day and to stay calm and even indifferent to it. Always remember, Risk Management is the #1 rule, you can't control the market, but you can control your risk management. Stay calm and risk 1%. Trading is a survival game. RM is the foundation of any strategy, risk management is the most important part of any strategy and step #1. Stay calm and risk 1%. Jesse Livermore said: "If you cannot sleep because of your stock market position (you are weak), then you have gone too far. Reduce your positions to the sleeping level." Stay calm and risk 1%.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Yelli_trades
1
Gold Price Analysis after Trump contracts coronavirus The world is in shock after President Donald Trump tweeted that he tested positive for coronavirus. Stocks markets fell, and gold finally broke free of the correlation with equities and advanced above $1,900. The bombshell development continues grabbing the headlines and casts questions about fiscal stimulus, the elections, and other topics. As investors continue watching the latest developments, how is the precious metal positioned? Looking up, gold faces its first noteworthy cluster of resistance at $1,910, which is the meeting point of the Bollinger Band 4h-Upper, the previous daily high, the BB 15min-Upper, and other lines. The upside target is $1,928, which is the confluence of the Pivot Point one-day Resistance 2 and the PP one-week R1.
TVC:GOLD
by Ridethemacro
2
Twitter Time to Short and Hold Crash Ahead ?Company Details Full Name Twitter, Inc. Country United States Employees 5,200 CEO Jack Dorsey Stock Information Ticker Symbol TWTR Stock Exchange New York Stock Exchange Sector Communication Services Industry Internet Content & Information Unique Identifier NYSE: TWTR IPO Date November 7, 2013 Description Twitter operates as a platform for public self-expression and conversation in real time United States and internationally. The company offers various products and services, including Twitter, a platform that allows users to consume, create, distribute, and discover content; and Periscope, a mobile application that enables user to broadcast and watch video live with others. It also provides promoted products and services, such as promoted tweets, promoted accounts, and promoted trends, which enable its advertisers to promote their brands, products, and services. In addition, the company offers a set of tools and public application programming interfaces for developers to contribute their content to its platform, syndicate and distribute Twitter content across their properties, and enhance their Websites and applications with Twitter content. Further, it provides subscription access to its public data feed for data partners. Twitter, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California. The IPO opening print also marks the 50% retracement of the downtrend into 2016, highlighting the need for skeptical buyers to come off the sidelines here and lift the stock into the $50s. The uptick has just eased into a trading range that acknowledges resistance, so a positive catalyst may be needed to trigger a breakout. That could be a tall order in the fourth quarter, given the extraordinary challenges. As a result, there isn't much to do except to wait and watch price action in coming weeks. The Bottom Line Twitter stock has returned to seven-year resistance and still give no clear break out above the IPO 50% Retrace Level, Ahead elections Covid-19 $ Crash may lead s&p500 and major stock market to down side, we can expect a twitter crash or Correction to down side soon! Best Regards: RideTheMacro
NYSE:TWTRShort
by Ridethemacro
1