Risk!!!
10 Mid to High Risk Stocks for my Breakout WatchlistImagine holding SPI as a penny stock, selling it at 7% draw-down, and few month after waking up to see it somehow have went up 4000%? While I do think there might be a possibility of foul play or might not, I have obviously made a mistake. This lead me to create this list of ten stocks I am watching from the sidelines, that I may do a breakout entry for. These are mid to high risk, and the drawdown can be severe. Volatility is not for the faint of heart. JMIA has a lot of high growth potential, and I feel like it just needs to break the resistance curve. SLNG is not too high risk of an OTC stock if you are wanting to invest a bit in that sector. SXTC may be somewhat of an oversold penny stock. Hudson Capital seems like a dip in the real estate space. I also think it may have around the same potential as CBL, but I rather trade something new. RZLT is a biopharma play that I think may be underrated. NWGI has a decent buy target by many analyst (so I heard), and is in a trending market segment. Remark Holdings already had many dips and so did BBI. I think the current entry is one of the more decent ones. Adomani may be oversold, and they recently updated their executive team in which I am on the fence. While I think they need to start looking less at buses and more on expanding the electrification tech they have, I still think for the price they are, definitely has somewhat some long term potential. $TAKOF is extremely dirt cheap and underrated in my opinion. I think this is one of the more worthwhile "gambles". That being said, invest at your own risk and do your own due diligence. Please consider everything I say "as is" or on an opinion based basis. This is not meant to be taken as actionable financial advice.
Daily Wisdom 32 - What a loser.It's not that you don't know how to profit. You simply don't know how to lose.
GOLD's long-term bearish scenario!This may seem a little radical! But first let us review what brought #Gold here. This my analysis of gold when it was ~ 1400$:
That was clear that risk will push gold higher and now we reached to the target area. Albeit we had first agreement between US-China meanwhile, but on the other hand Covid-19 came into play and it even worsened their relation too. Anyway, now market seems a little baffled about whether is there any more demand left to push it higher? My answer is it doesn’t seem so.
The fact is that Gold will reach higher as the long-term concerns about economical risks gets higher. There’s a point where no more new concerns come in and market becomes over-buy. Now as the concerns about long-term effects of the virus pandemic is getting lower gradually, it’s rational to think we would gradually come back to where we were in Jan, 1500$-1600$ zone. As you can see in the chart this zone is the target for two harmonics that formed recently. So, it seems that FA and TA may be consistent here. Reaching to the next bearish target needs more risk to be faded away in economic and political spheres.
Now IGN sentiment indicator says that 79% of the traders are net long and open interests are declining. This is fragile and price actions could help us see if they’re really selling at the top. One significant sign would be stable price below previous ATH (that was ~1921$). Another is high volumes in this zone we are in, that almost is the case as you can see volumes are relatively high here.
The two harmonic patterns are the Shark and Alt-Bat. Technically speaking gold behaves very harmonic imo. But this is a monthly chart and it’s very challenging. They may become invalid quickly if price continue to go higher and become stable above last ATH.
This chart is the vision of my own algorithm in monthly TF:
Targets are consistent in my own algo too but still got no bearish signal on price action. But one or two more bearish candle would do so. VP is also consistent with harmonic and fundamental target. So, all it needs is significant selling pressure. For those who trade big or with low or no leverage, R/R ratio is great. But this is not a trade advise and I recommend to do your own research. There’re bullish scenarios that I didn’t talk about here.
I’ll try to update this idea with my own algorithm signals.
Have best trades.
DIS Disney in a Long-Term Correction. What's next?DIS (The Walt Disney Company) is an old favorite for many who have had it or have it in their long-term portfolios, especially with this stock's long-term history.
The last 10-20 years have been some of the best for Disney with Bob Iger at the helm and the successful M&A, Creative, Movie launches and much more (Star Wars, MARVEL, New acquisition of FOX properties and much more).
The upward momentum for Disney seemed like it would never end. That is, until the pandemic of 2020 proved that Disney was overexposed. Whether theme parks, movie release and launch delays and compromises, and ESPN sports covering nothing interesting for several months, the trifecta took hold and saw DIS take a 50% retracement off its high in just a few weeks.
DIS proved resilient. Having already invested in the future of digital with Disney+ and bringing in a new CEO Bob Chapek to lead the new chapter of Disney, there was a glimmer of hope for Disney.
Still, long-term market cycles (note my WEEKLY chart) don't recover overnight. Expect DIS to continue seeing volatility in this large consolidation pattern. One might unfortunately link the stock's performance directly to sentiment on the pandemic and any hopes for a vaccine and re-opening of the economy, especially entertainment venues and attractions which Disney is overly dependent on.
DIS is a risky stock in the short to mid-term but can be a fun stock to trade while raising money to save a few shares in your long-term investment portfolio.
Liquidation Levels Trading FuturesI've seen lots of people getting liquidated on there longs on this BTC dump. This is why I think people never take into consideration risk management or don't know how it actually works. Maybe this can help a lot of people and help them clarify things. YES, the getting rich quick by leveraging is a probability, but if you ask me, I would consider it luck in the 25x to 100x than in lower leverage positions.
I think the getting rich quick scheme in crypto or FX is never talked enough and should always be addressed with proper risk management.
This analysis is considering you long your whole portfolio with leverage (which most people do).
If you want to long with high leverage, use 1% or 2% of your portfolio, try it out in Isolated mode first and see what it is all about. Your losses will teach you how to be a better trader, but never ever lose your ammo in your first try.
I'll do a follow up of this chart with potential gains by leveraging.
EURJPY H4 - Short Trade SetupEURJPY H4 - Very much the same kind of trading conditions as GBP just a little less aggressive, which we highlighted yesterday. Looking for exactly the same, WAITING for a break downside to clear 124.500 support and then a subsequent retest, this would be the next possible point to jump in with the downside trend hopefully.
EUR/USD LONG (H4) Hello traders. I hope that I can help you with my strategy, It´s only my opinion. I Would thanks if you say me your opinion. Bay and good trading!!!!!!
EUR/USD Long follow the strategy; 1. Long with the target in the possible resistance, 2. Short to the strong support and then fly to new maximum.
OANDA:EURUSD
LONG & SHORT POSITION TOOL📚An In-Depth Look at Using This ToolThis illustration explains the functionality of TradingView's Long/Short Position Tool and is intended to help new people looking for more information on this tool in a "novice friendly" format. TradingView’s position tool will aid you in pre-planning and pre-evaluating trades and as such should be an essential part of every trader's toolkit .
Note:
At its simplest, the position tool can quickly show you the R:R (Risk-To-Reward) of a single trade. By doing a little extra work, you’ll be able to then use this tool to properly plan for the risk of all trades you are taking compared to your total account size.
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Important terms:
Tick = A tick is a measure of the minimum upward or downward movement in price.
Trade outcome statistics = Used to track the outcome of a trade.
Example:
“Current XYZ position closed
+5.25% gain
10840 account balance after trade impact”
P&L = A representation of current Profit & Loss. Be careful where you position the tool, as the P&L is calculated based on the position of the tool.
Here are two uses for the Position Tool:
1. Only R:R = To quickly find only the R:R of a trade. This method does not bother changing account balance and such is only acceptable if you are tracking your current account balance and doing risk calculations off-platform in something such as a google spreadsheet.
2. Risk+R:R = To ensure your current trade idea meets both your R:R and max risk tolerance (risk amount; in our case, 1%). This is achieved by changing the “Account Size” option every time you are building a new position. This is the advised method to use, since like your trade journal, it’ll help keep you accurate and accountable.
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We will now explain the options contained within the tool’s input on-chart menu:
Account size = The current available balance within your account, the keyword here is available. If you are using the "Risk" option explained below then this needs to be updated upon starting to create a new trade setup.
Risk = Your max tolerable risk amount (either in absolute numbers or as a % of your account size). The default option is "absolute numbers," this uses the base currency of the on chart asset (If you were on ETHBTC, then the base currency would be BTC; for SPX500USD it is USD since this asset is displayed in its USD value). As you know, we suggest you stick to %.
Entry Price = The price you will be entering the position at.
PROFIT LEVEL:
Ticks = The tick difference from the entry price to the profit target.
Price = The take profit price.
STOP LEVEL:
Ticks = The tick difference from the entry price to the stop loss.
Price = The stop losses price.
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We will now explain all metrics being displayed on the tool while it is plotted on the chart:
Top info panel:
1. The difference in base currency (USD) from the entry price to the take profit price.
2. The difference in percentage change from the entry price to the take profit price.
3. The difference in ticks from the entry price to the take profit price.
4. The hypothetical account balance after the take profit target is achieved.
Middle info panel:
1. Simulated P&L from the entry price to where the current live price is.
(Displayed in the base currency of the on chart asset, USD in this example)
2. The quantity of the asset that should be purchased at the entry price.
This is calculated as follows: Qty = Risk / (Entry Price – Stop Price)
3. The risk to reward ratio, this is how much you could gain compared to how much you could lose.
The calculation is as follows:
Risk/Reward Ratio = ((Take profit price - Entry price) / (Entry price - Stop loss price))
Bottom info panel:
1. The base currency (USD) difference from the entry price to the stop-loss price.
2. The difference in percentage change from the entry to the stop-loss price.
3. The difference in ticks from the entry price to the stop-loss price.
4. The hypothetical account balance after the stop-loss is hit.
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Lastly, we will explain how Position Size and Account Balance are being calculated by TradingView:
Long Position Variant
Position Size:
Qty = RiskSize / (EntryPrice - StopPrice)
Account Balance when a position is closed after reaching the Take Profit level:
Amount = AccountSize + (ProfitLevel – EntryPrice) * Qty
Account Balance when position is closed after reaching the Stop Loss level:
Amount = AccountSize – (EntryPrice – StopLevel) * Qty
Short Position Variant
Position Size:
Qty = RiskSize / (StopPrice - EntryPrice)
Account Balance when a position is closed after reaching the Take Profit level:
Amount = AccountSize + (EntryPrice - ProfitLevel) * Qty
Account Balance when a position is closed after reaching the Stop Loss level:
Amount = AccountSize – (StopLevel – EntryPrice) * Qty
AccountSize:
Initial account size specified in the settings
RiskSize:
If the "Risk" option is set to "absolute numbers" = Risk
If the "Risk" option is set to "percentage of account size" = Risk / 100 * AccountSize
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Reference: www.tradingview.com
If we made any mistakes please let us know in the comments. There was a lot of formatting we needed to do to best display all of this information for you guys!
Enjoy. :)
Why chasing % should be your focus and not pips!Here we look at 3 traders, all claiming to have a winning trade with 100 pips - however, with very different % gains on their accounts.
The main part of trading is profitability, you can not pay your bills with pips.
This explains what you need to focus on and be aware of!
Hope it helps,
Regards
Darren