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USDOLLAR Holds 50-Day Moving Average SupportThe left chart show's the daily chart of FXCM's dollar index, USDOLLAR. The instrument is holding support at the black 50-day moving average. The RSI is also looking to cross above 50, which is the bullish side of the oscillator. The right chart shows the hourly time frame. Here the RSI is already bullish and if the EMAs start moving upwards (green ellipse), the greenback is likely bid. If this is the case and the sentiment transfers to the daily time frame, the market will be moving towards a risk-off sentiment.
FX:USDOLLARLong
by FXCM
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2020.04.15A good time to update the USDJPY chart as things are changing very quickly. Here you will notice risk-sentiment starting to take another turn for the worse, meaning we are again entering into a very advanced playing field and a short-term nimble approach is pragmatic and necessary to survive at these levels. The relentless stream of bad news on the virus front keeps coming and another round of bankruptcies looks set to take charge across the board…. It is entering into the picture as lockdowns in Europe and US look set to extend till June/July which will squeeze Small & Medium sized firms that wont be able to survive for much more than a couple weeks. A few of scenarios we need to track on the Fundamental side: 1️⃣ Bullish Case - Northern Hemisphere curve flattening with US and Europe opening early June. Will trigger direct legs back towards all time highs across the board in Equities. ( 22% odds ) 2️⃣ Inline Case - US and Europe opening in July with clear preparations for further rounds of social distancing programs that will come into play again at year-end through Q1 2021 as the virus migrates back in the Winter months. Opens up another calculated leg down in risk markets to sweep the current floor in place and early buyers. ( 64% odds ) 3️⃣ Bearish Case - How fast the consumer comes back and managing these expectations is the one to track and it boils down to whether people have the confidence to return to hotels, travel, shops, bars, restaurants etc… If ‘business as usual’ does not return as masses remain afraid then we can enter into a depression ( 14% odds ) For the technical flows ... over the coming session all eyes are on the key 107.0x support !! ... After it managed to hold todays London and NY sessions it is screaming loudly that USD demand remains prevalent and shows no signs of abating. Initial targets over the coming sessions at 108.3x and 109.3x, to the downside invalidation of the view will come from a breach of 106.9x as it will trigger a momentum move that is also very tradable towards 104.5x. We will have fresh round of DXY and other G10 chart updates coming tomorrow, highly recommend all digging into the details of the flows as the ranges are very wide. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
2
BTC/USD Analysis by EduardCAHello Dear Friends! BTC has a bearish bias towards the next support at $6,000. It is a strong support level. If the price moves below $6000, BTC/USD may easily hit to $5,550 (SMA200 weekly). While the long-term bias remains bullish, the expectations on a weekly and monthly basis stayed mostly neutral. Like many other instruments, Bitcoin has a high volatility now, which means high risks. Put only 2% of your capital under the risk on one trade. Good luck!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by EduardCA
1
Risk ManagementAs I promised, I publish the post about risk management. There are different types of risk management, but I will share one of the best in my opinion. When you trade futures you have no control over what is happening in the market, the only thing you can counteract is your stop orders and it depends on the volume of your position. Nothing more depends on you. You can try to control the market with your thoughts, meditations, prayers, you can try anything, but it doesn't work and it's not surprising :) What is under your control is stop loss. Don't overdo with your trades - it's when you trade too big contracts or when you trade too often. Here too, there is the considerable cause that pushes you to trade too often: you look at small timeframes and afraid to miss a profitable trade. Your problem is likely to be that you have a large number of open positions, so I will tell you how big your position should be. One simple mathematical method will help you. You have to determine the amount you are willing to risk. Say your trading account is $100,000. And you need to decide what part of that amount you want to risk on one deal. Someone might say I'm a very risky guy, I'll risk 20%, the other - 15%, and the other only 2-5%. The more percentage of your deposit you use in a deal, the better chance of zeroing out your deposit. You have to determine your risk factor. Usually, in an aggressive strategy, the risk is 10-12%. You always need to understand what percentage of your money you are willing to risk. If you know exactly what your maximum possible loss and use the appropriate stops, then you can't lose more than you have specified. Of course, you need to take into account some possible slippage. Let's assume that you set for yourself a maximum loss of $500 on a trade and don't risk more than 10% of your capital. Then the risk factor of my $100K trading account is $10K. So you only risk $500 per trade and be able to make 20 failed trades straight. After 3 unsuccessful trades, as a rule, I close the terminal and go out for a walk or drive a car, after an hour I return and make no more than 2 trades Formula: Your balance multiplied by risk percentage(e.g. 10%) and divided by your maximum possible loss (stop, e.g. $500) and as a result we get the number of contracts that you can trade. 100,000$ * 10% =10000$ 10000$ / 500$ = 20 Number of traded contracts You can see the formula on the chart It's all about money management, once you earn more money you can open more positions, and when you get a loss the contract volume decreases too. Fact of life, if you bet big you are guaranteed to lose big. Money management must begin before you enter the trade. You should know how many trades you can trade and how much you can risk for each of them. Never invest more than 20% of your capital if you are experienced, and 10% if you are new with trading. Don't trade more than six markets at a time. When you feel sure that you can't lose, it's time for the biggest risk of losing everything. Fear allows you to be careful. You must risk no more than 5% of your capital per trade, regardless of your experience. Remember, the markets aren't sweet candy, they're brutal, and many people, without realizing it, lose their deposits. The market is a puzzle without instructions. I hope I a little bit helped to put your puzzle together. Respect the market he is your teacher With respect, EXCAVO.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by EXCAVO
44
ridethepig | XAU Market Commentary 2020.03.20This swing illustrates my idea of the "two jurisdictions" in a particularly striking fashion. As though playing at odds, to use the infamous expression. By this I mean the choice of a variation, which you yourself do not necessarily have to consider a good one. The premise consists of setting your opponent a difficult problem, or distraction. And Gold is the virtuoso of it. This is the reason some think that inflation (or rather deflation) is the Achilles heel moving forward. But, as I have said, on a misconception if risk shows no signs of abating. This move back towards the highs in the virus panic range (1700 - 1450) plays at the right moment in my books. But if buyers are obstructed via further liquidations; this represents quite a dark side to the idea: The next move raises the stakes; because Gold has taken its time in developing the $1700 handle, whereas a cramped $1500 should have special claim to be cautious! And yet, buyers have not yet passed the point of no return, they are refusing to capitulate after which it becomes impossible to breakdown. Hard to understand; a better way try was profit taking from the Santa Rally: To be clear, another test of the highs is now being prepared. As long as $1510 support holds we can see a leg towards $1630 with $1700 extensions again ( anything beyond was previously locked via Coronavirus but now spillovers are starting to enter into the picture as globalisation shuts down ). Continue to play both sides of this incredibly wide range, big figures are taking place in a matter of minutes; the European session has held the lows and tells us that where risk sentiment in the market is right now. Please manage expectations accordingly. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes, comments and support coming! Jump in with your charts and questions!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
47
EURUSD(1D) - long with controlled losses. I explain why there is a long position in this drawing on my probability estimates - taken from technical indicators. Note carefully the word 'controlled loss' means stoploss which means that's money one is prepared to lose. I never avoid talking about losses, as it is the most important thing to control in trading. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Long
by Captain_Walker
1
ridethepig | CHF Macro PlaybookThe pair is performing with little trouble for sellers, it has been absolutely hammered as Global Equities and Yields come under further pressure via Coronavirus impact. After a conversation with @FT_Lexicon we can discuss the importance of flanking and comparing with EURCHF is vital here, we can realise why there is not the same room for SNB intervention as there was in 2011. Let us now take a look at this two-stage manoeuvre in a swing without opposing forces: The 1.06 barrier is giving up, this will allow the move to follow through with CHF inflows. Here the CHF side must be occupied via risk-off positioning. The franc must be bought as long as we remain in this environment, a frontal attack on demand and supply and now markets are catching up. For all those tracking the previous USDCHF chart via generational US capital outflows we it is a good time to review the diagram: In the position; Sellers have already done the technical damage because the next soft support is not found till 0.900x which will hold temporarily before we move towards 0.85xx. The theory of our opposition is really lacking, FED cuts and US virus case numbers still ticking higher will all weigh heavily on USD going forward. The truth is simple; volatility was miles ahead and played its role as leader, here is the chart @ridethepig called back last year in VIX (Volatility): The application of the VIX in this context is helping us keep in sync with risk sentiment, as long as this remains elevated, all USDCHF rallies should continue to be sold. This shows the typical and ideal situation for us using CHF as a safe-haven. Their relationship is like those of real comrades, brothers standing side-by-side and must be taken into consideration at all times! The strength of their relationship will progress and demand a testing of the 0.85xx handle, their lust of range expansion will continue to drive the flows. On the technicals, 0.9525 is the closest s/t resistance and should be sold if it arises. Otherwise, well done all those holding shorts from the highs last year. As usual thanks for keeping the likes, comments and charts rolling in the comments below !!
Short
by ridethepig
2
JPYBASKET's RSI Charts Potential Failure Swing TopFurther to our previous article , the JPYBASKET broke out of its flag formation and headed towards the pattern's target. This, as risk-off sentiment dominates markets and safe havens, like the JPY, benefit. However, it is worth noting that the RSI has pushed down from the 80 level (blue rectangle) in a pattern referred to as a RSI failure swing top. The failure swing is usually an indication that price may be correcting i.e. pulling back from its recent impulse move up. Thus, the flag's target may not be met (at least in the near term). However, any decline here may prove to be a low risk entry opportunity, especially if the risk-off sentiment that is permeating through the risk market continues to persist.
JLong
by FXCM