ridethepig | A Homerun in Gold...In the realm of swing trading, the struggle for liberation is forever prevalent. It would be wrong to ignore the opening move here at 1205;
This kickstarted the entire move towards $1305, once outside of the wedge buyers took an "anything goes" approach to the price as risk began to evolve over time. While the triangle from an elliot wave perspective was deemed risky, this move now became a standard:
What is much more the point, is the rise in popularity of the wedge break. It was offering opportunities on both sides and while inflation was absent during 1H19 it presented a tradable ABC correction:
The lows held and was sending loud messages that real money was on the move, this was a BTFD opportunity as see in these positions:
Finally the technical development was there, it was just a matter for buyers to challenge the relevance of what is undeniable a useful strategy... Support:
I am talking about the final stages of the middlegame here before we transition to endgame (in play now). Naturally the Santanomics kicked into play:
Opening up $1650 and $1700 targets ... let's continue to ride the pig:
In conclusion, by now we should all be fully loaded on the buy side here. There has certainly been opportunities even in this last leg to have increased exposure via PBOC intervention:
Valentines Day:
...
You get the point. A textbook example of setting up the foundations for a major swing and executing on it with precision. The macro assured us the whole time that sellers would not be able to compete!!
Hope it has helped.. thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Buyers on the attack aimed first at the highs
Risk!!!
ridethepig | XAU Market Commentary 2020.02.17Risk markets remain on the back-foot with no one wanting to get caught badly on the wrong side via COVID-19 haven flows. You can see this in USDJPY, after the awful GDP prints (still yet to see virus impact) the reaction was so muted. Markets remain at the mercy to gyrations in patient and death counts, I am sticking with the shorts from 109.7x/8x although by no stretch of the imagination married to this. A break above 110.3x will invalidate the view while soft support can be found at 109.2x which unlocks the leg towards 108 incase we get panic later in the week. Stay long Gold.
After an initial blip lower, Gold has once again found a strong bid as markets position themselves defensively via COVID-19. The break of 1600 will be very telling, with NY calmly away from their offices today we could continue to find demand on dips. Well done all those riding from Valentines Day!
A superb swing since we got the breakout:
On the medium and long term things are a lot clearer, we can comfortably ride this till $1600, $1630 and finally $1650 before the next leg of profit taking begins:
Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc! Jump into the comments with any questions or queries, to put simply here, adding longs and continuing to sit on the bid as long as risk remains in the spotlight. GL!
ridethepig | EURCHF High Risk Of Flash Crash !!!Here a good time to update the EURCHF as we break through the 1.062x lows as sellers are aiming for complete capitulation of their opponent (as far as the flash crash is concerned there is very little in terms of support here if we get a daily breach). The plan was
(1) Forcing further selling EURCHF:
(2) The extension leg was released and sellers advanced in triumph:
(3) Possible retracement barrier, e.g strong support on 1.062x, smart money buying the lows?
This plan to originally buy the lows could still be in play, in other words the close this week is important as it will effectively communicate whether we are in the exhaustion stage of our 'C' leg or rather starting the impulsive swing towards 1.014x which is the target wave '3'.
It is much more difficult for SNB to intervene with FED tracking like a hawk to assimilate the CHF selling. The direct exploitation of an intervention is part of the middlegame - see some of my previous content on risk flows. All we need to hope for to achieve a major flush is to keep our opponent suffering for further lengths in time. Buyers are on the defensive!
A close below 1.060x will demand some attention, monitoring closely the price action around these levels. Remain short for now.
Thanks as usual for keeping the likes, comment and charts coming!
NZUUSD SHORTSHi traders, my bias on NU is currently short; I am running a position on this trade and intend to hold only for a few hours as this is a intraday trade.
The reason I took this trade is actually quite simple, NU is currently on a downtrend destroying all previous support levels (major levels). Also absolutely destroying a very strong weekly trendline. With this in mind I looked at the current price action of NU and saw it was very close to a major key level of resistance.
Price pullbacked and rejected this major resistance 2 times on the daily and numerous times on other time frames. Also looking at the 4 hour chart we see the EMA is acting as some sort of resistance (highlighted in orange); we see wick rejections of this area which is conveniently a major resistance level.
Finally, all of these confluences enticed me to enter into a short position with a 1:1 RR , currently running in profits but look too close soon.
Thank you for reading, please like and follow if you enjoyed!
Bankroll and Risk Management, Risk to Reward Ratio - EDUCATIONALIn this example I am showing you how important is RIsk Management in your trading system.
You could be the most talented trader in the world with a natural eye for investment opportunities, and still blow your account with one bad call without proper risk management. No matter how good you are, or how experienced you are, you’re still going to incur losses. Even the best traders in the world suffer losing trades - it’s part and parcel of trading. That’s why risk management is so important to your trading.
One way that you could strike the right balance between reward and risk is to stick to a reward:risk ratio such as 2:1 or even 3:1, where your targeted profits are always double that of your maximum losses. So even if you suffer three losing trades, you’ll only need two profitable ones to ensure your total profits outnumber your losses if you stick to this reward:risk ratio. Although it’s not a general rule to follow, it can help you to visualise a specific approach to risk management.
"It's not important whether you are right or wrong. It's about how much money you make."
That means that you can still win 4/6 trade and you are still loosing money.
In the example showed you can see that investing different amount of money in each trade can drive to a negative ROI even if yours winning rate is over 66% .
ORBEX: Risk Softens As Iran's Retaliation Options LimitedIran will most likely retaliate and perhaps the first move will involve the disruption of oil shipments through the State of Hormuz.
But, what will China say to that, given nearly 50% of its imported oil comes from the Gulf region?
For now, risk is scaling back and that’s obvious from yen outflows. Watch how the euro and dollar could perform over the next few days.
Timestamps
USDJPY 4H 01:30
EURUSD 4H 03:30
Trade safe
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2020.01.06On the risk front, JPY demand running out of steam from the initial knee-jerk via Iran tensions and asking for a squeeze. I am tracking 108.6x on the day to add to my shorts. Targets below are located at 107.3x support while stops can be kept comfortably above 108.9x resistance.
JPY inflows will continue to come via risk as long as BOJ remains on hold and warrants increasing bearish exposure. After clearing first targets in the initial 2020 swing:
Thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming, as usual jump into the conversation with your charts and questions!
AIONBTC a low risk tradeA nice low risk trade at the end of the year. Wish you all a profitable next year!
ridethepig | JPY Capital FlowsAfter getting the breakout we were tracking for in USDJPY we are now back and revisiting our infamous "Loading Zone" area at 109.3x right in time for BOJ to maintain the status quo.
Outside of a knee jerk via risk I expect USDJPY to hold 108 - 109 range until we clear BOJ next week. Odds of Japanese rates being taken further into the red is declining, meaning the BOJ is likely to sound hawkish via maintaining the status quo flows towards 100. Japanese consumption is falling alongside production after the tax hike and we are already starting to see this show up in store closures throughout the country, however, you can see some are already starting to argue a case for Global manufacturing recovery (unlikely with protectionism via Trump).
JPY inflows will continue to come via risk as long as BOJ remains on hold and warrants increasing bearish exposure. Looking to add more $JPY shorts into the 109.3x resistance with clear jurisdictions mapped on both sides, resistance is initially found at 109.3x. While to the downside support is located at 108.2x which holds the key to unlocking the 2020 macro leg towards 100.
Thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming, as usual jump into the conversation with your charts and questions!
ridethepig | Gold One Last LookA very good time to update the Gold chart after clearing inflation and FOMC yesterday. As widely mentioned in the latest macro update in the institutional room:
" Here tracking for a slight uptick in inflation but nothing out of trend before the spotlight is turned onto forward guidance with Fed and 2020 dots. I expect the dots to tick down whilst leaving 2021 hikes on the table . "
Inflation making a return while risk markets remain less sanguine with protectionism, impeachment, election risk and late cycle fears refusing to abate. To understand how and why we are trading the current 1475 level its important to review and dig deeper into the chart archives, this entire 5 wave impulsive sequence began from the breakout we traded live here at 1200:
At this point after the breakout it was clear the large triangle formation was in play, for those with an understanding of waves this is a textbook case of an ABCDE pattern to mark the final chapters of the cycle:
...for those wondering if we also traded pullbacks in the opposite direction, the answer is yes:
Now that we have reviewed the flows to date and have an understanding of the why and how, we can start to build a case for adding to our longs. It should be no surprise that this valuation driven pullback attracted buying interest from the usual suspects:
It is the same story in particular for those trading XAU versus CNY:
In this regard, Gold reiterated the skew towards grinding higher at least for the next year. It appears unlikely that the bar for risk-on will be met by the end of 2020, with Brexit and US elections entering into the picture it is certainly more conceivable that further upside could play out in a way that triggers momentum towards 1650 targets.
Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes and jumping into the comments with your questions and charts!