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ORBEX: EURUSD, USDJPY - The Risks Of A US-EU TradewarIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #EURUSD and #USDJPY #EURUSD weak on: - US-EU potential trade conflict (airbus illegal state aid - WTO depended) - ECB's Germans board member resignation Medium-term #Euro led flows will hang on Lagarde's policy. A potential transition to fiscal tools will be euro positive #USDJPY strong on: - Dovish Evans turned neutral - Positive home sales - No GDP revision - No safe-haven flows - Dollar seen as risk positive Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
Retracement Zone for ONDK - Risky Move On Deck Capital, Inc. offers an online platform for small business lending. The Company's platform aggregates and analyzes data points from disparate data sources to assess the creditworthiness of small businesses. Small businesses apply for a term loan or line of credit on the Company's Website, and using its OnDeck Score, the Company makes a funding decision and transfers the funds. The Company offers small businesses a suite of financing options with its term loans and lines of credit that can meet the needs of small businesses throughout their life cycle. Its internal sales force and customer service representatives provide assistance throughout the application process and the life of the loan. Its loans are priced based on a risk assessment generated by its data and analytics engine, which includes the OnDeck Score. Its platform touches every aspect of the customer life cycle, including customer acquisition, sales, scoring and underwriting, funding, and servicing and collections.
OLong
by DEXWireNews
How much of their money can europeans lose in a single day?Disclaimer: For new people, or just the dumb people (I heard there were alot of those in crypto), these are AVERAGE TRUE RANGE numbers. Those numbers do not represent the most or even average you can lose in a day but the trading range in an average day. Days can vary widely... Just look at the NatGas chart, or Bitcoin that has some days in a 2.5% range and then days where the price goes up or down (organically) 20% in 3 hours. The most: Natural Gaz ==> 4% ATR * 10 leverage = 40% a day. NatGas that regularly soars massively and wipes out funds, gaps insanely very regularly, is the one with the most risk allowed. Regulators <3 The least (outside of absolute troll FX minors and probably some mysterious stocks): 10 Year T-Note ==> 0.50% ATR * 5 leverage (30 with FCA) = 2,5% a day. What about FX majors? EURUSD ==> 0.75% ATR * 30 leverage = 22,5% a day. USDJPY ==> 0.75% ATR * 30 leverage = 22,5% a day. GBPUSD ==> 0.85% ATR * 30 leverage = 25,5% a day. EURCHF ==> 0.50% ATR * 30 leverage = 15,0% a day. (probably smallest) GBPJPY ==> 1.00% ATR * 30 leverage = 30,0% a day. (probably largest) What about FX "minors"? AUDUSD ==> 1.00% ATR * 20 leverage = 20% a day. USDZAR ==> 1.50% ATR * 20 leverage = 30% a day. The biggest one I think. USDHKD ==> 0.05% ATR * 20 leverage = 01% a day. ... USDCNH ==> 0.40% ATR * 20 leverage = 08% a day. Smallest one that is not a complete joke. My interest for this collpased with the new restrictions... What about agri? Biggest "major" one is Coffee ==> 3.00% ATR * 10 leverage = 30% a day. Smallest "major" one is Soybean ==> 1.60% ATR * 10 leverage = 16% a day. What about stocks? I cannot check 50,000 tickers, but the typical big ones have ATR around 2%, with the vast majority of > 1B cap between 1 and 3 % a day, so with 5 leverage ==> Typical is 10%, and range is 5-15%. What about my big 3 commodities (Gold Oil Copper)? Gold ==> 1.25% ATR * 20 leverage = 25% a day. Oil ==> 3.00% ATR * 10 leverage = 30% a day. HGC ==> 2.00% ATR * 10 leverage = 20% a day. What about crypto? Bitcoin ==> 5.50% ATR * 2 leverage = 11% a day. With BTC the biggest less risky one you have access to the less risk. Pure regulator logic here. ETHUSD ==> 11.5% ATR * 2 leverage = 23% a day. XRPUSD ==> 13.0% ATR * 2 leverage = 26%. EOSUSD ==> 10.5% ATR * 2 leverage = 21%. Excrement On Shareholders moves less than this bigger ones, does this mean it is more stable and secure? TRXUSD ==> 20.0% ATR * 2 leverage = 40%. I haven't access to this but I checked etoro which I know is a broker very geared towards morons, and surprise suprise TRX is here... So you have the poopiest of cryptos (well in the top 25) fighting for first place with NatGas with leverage adjusted ATR of 40% a day...
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by MrRenev
The Next Recession is probably within 2 years.The “Recession Watch” indicator tracks 7 key economic metrics which have historically preceded US recessions. It provides a real-time indication of incoming recession risk. While not flawless, this indicator gives a good picture of when risk is increasing, and therefore when you might want to start taking some money out of risky assets. All of the last seven recessions were preceded by a risk score of 3 or higher. Six of them were preceded by a risk score of 4 or higher. Based on the indicator hit rate at successfully flagging recessions over the last 50 years, risk scores have the following approximate probabilities of recession: - 0-1: Low - 2: 25% within next 18 months - 3: 30% within next 12 months - 4-7: 50% within next 12 months Note that a score of 3 is not necessarily a cause for panic. After all, there are substantial rewards to be had in the lead up to recessions (averaging 19% following yield curve inversion). For the brave, staying invested until the score jumps to 4+, or until the S&P500 drops below the 200day MA, will likely yield the best returns. Read more about the metric on Medium here: medium.com TradingView Indicator here: Notes on use: - use MONTHLY time period only (the economic metrics are reported monthly) - If you want to view the risk Score (1-7) you need to set your chart axis to "Logarithmic" Enjoy and good luck!
SP:SPX
by capriole_charles
1
Yield Curve Inversion and S&P500 Returns & LossesIn the last 50 years, every time US treasury yield curve inverted a recession followed within 3 years. On average the S&P500 gained 19.1% following the inversion and peaked 13 months later. In other words, as far as investors are concerned, the recession began roughly one year later. However, once the market peaks, it drops 37.6% on average. Assuming you can time the market peak perfectly, there is a lot of money to be had. However, the downside risk is a lot greater than the upside opportunity. If you are a long-term “buy-and-hold” investor, with the yield curve having just inverted in August 2019, be prepared to ride a 3- to 5-year roller coaster of highs and lows. At the end, when you step off the ride, you can expect to have roughly the same equity value that you do today.
SP:SPX
by capriole_charles
NO BREAK! But SPY, DIA, and QQQ broke...The Russell ETF could not break out of consolidation, but the other 3 majors did break. The Russell - being the major small cap index - is an indicator of risk. When the Russell is rising, investors are less fearful. When the Russell is falling, investors are cautious ... That's the basic concept anyways. I think this Russell chart is showing that maybe people aren't as optimistic as Thursday's rocket ship would have implied. While the 3 biggest indexes broke through strong resistance pretty convincingly, the Russell stayed put ... it tried, but did not succeed. IWM also bounced off its 50 day MA. In addition to that, Friday's close was less than impressive. I'm betting on at least a bearish start to next week, and possibly for the week as a whole. Jerome Powell, yet again, gave no clear-cut direction to the Fed's interest rate plans, leaving the market to wonder what's going on. All economic indications (and technicals) are pointing towards - at the very least - a strong market correction. I think Powell's speech, mixed with the very poor jobs report, put a bad taste in the markets mouth. I bought some TVIX yesterday, because I'm thinking Monday might be a little ugly. Looking at this IWM chart makes me feel even better about my TVIX purchase ... for Monday anyways.
AMEX:IWMShort
by Bankuur
GPOR - Bullish Divergence Found. Risky But Could TurnGulfport Energy Corp. is an independent oil natural gas exploration and production company. The company focuses on the exploration, exploitation, acquisition and production of natural gas, natural gas liquids, and crude oil in the United States. Its principal producing properties located along the Louisiana Gulf Coast. The company was founded on July 11, 1997 and is headquartered in Oklahoma City, OK. SHORT INTEREST 23.75M 08/15/19 P/E Current 0.98 P/E Ratio (with extraordinary items) 0.73 P/E Ratio (without extraordinary items) 2.67 Average Recommendation: HOLD Average Target Price: 6.79
G
by DEXWireNews
Navigating The Market : Simplified #EURJPY Sept 2nd, 2019The EURJPY had been in a bearish trend. The Yen had been bid due to safe-haven flows thanks to Trump and China trade war. I also believe what is happening in Hong Kong does play it's part as well. Retail sentiment generally bearish on the Yen. The first thing happened after the Sydney open was price managed to break below and closed under last Friday's low (coincided with last week's low as well), followed by a bullish version of a dark cloud cover candlestick pattern (I genuinely forgot what its actually called!). There are plenty of sell stops recorded around the prices between 115.850 to 116.350. I looked at the order books, great % amount of opened buy positions there at 116.650 (the close price of that bullish candle), which I suspect 116.350 price is the averaged stop-loss price (Stoploss is a sell stop for a buy position, vice versa) Sell orders above market price right now, which logically would be the place for everyone to put their sell stops as well as bearish continuation trade. That's too obvious for me and I bet the institutionals would take advantage of that and take the other side of the trade. Look, it could happen (price reverses at 117.00-117.150, but trading is a numbers game, my personal record of statistics suggest it has higher probability that the price would just break that sell stops above market price) My game plan is to scalp a long trade if price taps into the sell stop around 116.350 to 115.580. If price continues to go up (without going down further at 116-115.xx) and respects the sell stop at 117.150-117.00, I will re-adjust my plan as that would be the classic continuation pattern for the underlying bearish trend. I do however anticipating the sell stops at 117.xx to be consumed and the price goes higher towards previous Friday's high. I will look to short if/when that happens. A further move higher right now ((without going down further at 116-115.xx) would be too bad because I want to Long EURJPY short term (because, as I've mentioned above, I am bullish Yen - in other words, bearish EURJPY) but i'm more comfortable if it taps into the liquidity pool.
by sufiansaid
Update on GOLDIf you have followed our previous plan to scalp gold on the short side you would have closed your trade from 1542 at 1530. We traded off the supply zone that is marked in blue. However, now we have tested the zone for the third time. Generally speaking, the more price tests supply/demand zone the weaker the zone gets. If this holds true today then we may see a pop in Gold and maybe even fresh highs. Also, remember we are at the end of month flows with thin liquidity. A bigger supply zone exists on the weekly just above 1558. If we get a run-up till there then we may enter a short. Will monitor the price action closely.
FX:XAUUSD
by MokaTrades
DJI / DOW JONES / us30 -- long term short emerging -- multi-weekanother cycle of "sell in May and go away" with Sept / Oct being the worst of the returns that make this axiom a solid and trustworthy one. Ichimoku Cloud and RSI divergences support this idea too. Risk seems to be peaking, and Risk/Reward is now well within acceptable ranges with SL1, SL2, and SL3 positioned wisely. Going into the autumn seasons when traders return, recession calls growing ever louder, trade / tariff tensions rising, war hawks calling more strongly when global growth is waning... this is a cocktail for 25% to 40% equity corrections. SL1 = 26500 SL2 = 27100 SL3 = 27600 TP1 = 24700 TP2 = 21900 TP3 = 20600
FX:US30Short
by OutsidetheBoxFX
1
USDCHF LONG TRADELooking at recent structure, we can see the price are creating a new LH which align with previous based as well as 50% fibs level. therefor give us a chance to go short. _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Traders! if you like my ideas and do take the same trade like i do, please write it in comment so we can manage the trade together. join my free telegram channel to see more about my service at LCFXpro Trading Floor. LINK IN BIO!! _____________________________________________________________________________________ Thank you for your support! LamchiuFX
Long
by LCFXpro
18
HOW TO MANAGE RISK (ESSENTIAL MATERIAL)How do I calculate/manage risk? Managing your risk is absolutely essential as profitable trader. When you enter a trade there are only five outcomes: 1) Big win; 2) Small win; 3) Break even; 4) Small loss; 5) Big loss. As long as you can cut off the "BIG LOSS", no matter how bad you trade, its still likely that you are a profitable trader. Most people's account got blown up because of big losses. Here is how I do it: 1) Every trade I only invest 2% of my entire capital; eg a $10000USD account the affordable stop loss would be 2% x $10000USD = $200USD. 2) Calculate my stop loss in pipes; eg 50 pipes ; $200/50= $4 USD per pipe => Lot size =0.4 Standard Lot eg 10 pipes ; $200/10=$2 USD per pipe => Lot size = 2 Standard Lot For a $10000USD account if you are to blown up your account based on the above methodology you will need 50 consecutive losses, which is statistically impossible. Apart from the above personally I have also set up my ground rule as follow: if my account is decreased by 5% daily (including floating losses) I am done trading for the day. This is because you WILL become emotional at this point and will want to win back. This win back thought will kill your account. Accept the loss and move on next day. Losing is part of trading.
TVC:DXYEducation
by StevenFu
1
RISK 1:13 REWARD!!! NZDCHF LONGRISK 1:13 REWARD!!! What is my entry criteria for a NZDCHF LONG? Reason: Met my rules to confirm a Bullish Trend. This is my final chance entry to get long on this pair, with a high Reward to Risk this may not play out but overall it is a profitable strategy that I will continue to implement. Confluence: RSI We are not quite oversold on the daily as we are at 21 so its still low Major level of now structure and support, looking left we can see multiple tests Bullish Divergence on the 240 chart Entry: Double Bottom completion on the 60 chart Stops: Tight ATR below the low previous test, as we could just blow right through this stop and continue lower and breach my bullish trend rules (Hence the final chance entry) Targets: Target 1: High of the previous close Target 2: Depending how we get to target 1 if we get to target 1, I will either trail based on structure if there is enough volume and momentum or cut the trade. Long way to go before this happens – if this happens As always good luck in the markets, TradeEasy.
Long
by TradeEasy_Today
How to use the Risk to Reward/PnL toolHeyaaaa As promised, here's the video tutorial showing in silence/muted how to use the new indicator published today Risk-Reward-InfoPanel/ I'll try from next week to buy a microphone and you'll all hear how nice is my french accent.... I can imagine the complains I'll receive saying no one understood anything. Will be fun for sure Anyway, please let me know in the comments section if anything is not clear. You have the source code for FREE so I'll hope you'll learn from it and invent something cool, sharing with the community and pay me royalties. Don't forget the French arm who fed you in your young trading years my apprentices. PS Remember my Trade Manager (Open Source) version ? Trade-Manager-Open-Source-Version/ ? You for sure can connect the Take Profits and Stop Loss to a Risk/Reward and PnL panels. This will update in real-time your PnL based on the data on the chart this time I did it myself this afternoon with my version of the Trade Manager See y'all tomorrow for a new indicator/new day Dave
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by Daveatt
2
1 reason why institutional money will NEVER go big on PonziCoinWe compare a BTC baggy speculator to a largely diversified fund. We assume risk rewards are the same and on 1 side the BTC baggy takes 2 huge trades over a 2 year period, the diversified fund has 200 positions in total, in bacthes of 10 that are held approximately 10 weeks each. This is quite similar to reality. I also compare the 2 time BTC gambler to a speculator that takes 10 smaller trades instead of 2 huge one, and demonstrate that even this small difference makes a HUGE difference result wise (spoiler: he makes 75 times as much money). 45% to make 125% once/once 100* 0.45 to make 100*1.25 0.45*2.25 = 1,0125 (amazing) For the smart speculator the formula (0.9955^100)*(1.0125^100) is incorrect it assumed every trade is compounded. Let's look at a speculator that holds 10 position at once. Because (1+x)*(1-x) = 1 - x² < 1, and the bigger the loss the harder to comeback (lose 1% only need to make 1.01% - 1% more only to breakeven, lose 50% need to make double that (100% more) to breakeven), I'll affirm without going into too much details that: The best case scenario is in each batch of 10 trades the speculator wins 5 loses 5 The worst case scenario is the speculator loses all trades in 10 batches of 10 in a row & wins 10 of 10 in a row. Best case scenario, he makes 20 times 0.9775*1.0625=1,03859375 (0.45*5=2.25 and 1.25*5=6.25). Note how this is already more than the amazing Bitcoin total returns. 20 times this compounded is => 1,03859375^20 = 2,13. Worst case scenario 10 times 0.955 then 10 times 1.125 => 2,049. The diversified speculator doubled his money. The dumb moon chaser that got "the bull run of his life wow such big % best performing asset" broke even. I just want to bang my head on the wall when I hear "best performing asset". There was a guy on tv that said this. OF COURSE he also smiled like an idiot. OF COURSE he made no sense zero logic. OF COURSE he uttered the incredibly stupid sentence "If I knew how to predict the future I would not be here I would be at the beach". I can compare it to a third, that only takes 10 trades in total in 2 years. Risked 9% each time to make 25%. 0.91^5*1.25^5 = 1,9044. Almost doubled his money. Of course most Bitcoin dumb money is not risking 45% to make 125%, they are risking 100% to make "moon". I wonder what returns they believe can give them (all by the way) 100% back. Oh but of course "it will never happen". They will grow old holding their bags to zero and vanish into oblivion. And let us not forgot that idiotcoin does this: And let us not forget that idiotcoin price action shows INFERIOR setups to what we regularly see elsewhere. I assumed for this that baggycoin had as good risk rewards, but here we can see this is not the case. This is just 1 example but it is always like this... So things are actually even worse... Nice, wait months and months of flat price action for this crap? When there are much better opportunities based on the weekly chart too on a DAILY BASIS? "Uuuuh but price only went up 4% my retardcoin went up 8900%" - Mathematically illeterate simpleton that also has no clue about leverage (if he really wants a one time big number due to mathematical illiteracy). And since all crypto are correlated and alts are unpredictable, no self-respectable fund is going to go more than 1, maybe 2 percent, in crypto. Oh I said self-respectable, not that would be zero percent. I mean the crazy ones. If big money comes in (Soros) it is either small (Rothschilds that are trillionaires put 100k in emmm do BTC baggies know what percentage this is? They probably have more spare cash in their pockets), OR they are in to extract as much money from baggies as fast as they can (Soros broke the bank of england). There is ABSOLUTELY NO REASON for professionals that want to make money to go in BTC buy&baghodl. They can make more with less risk. They also know this is an unethical ponzi scheme and often have a reputation to protect. But I won't get started on other reasons they will not throw money at retail "believers". One day they will realize that the people pointing & laughing and calling them idiots were not just joking but meant it, and they were not 'just mad they missed out', and it will hurt hard. They are going to fall from so high. It will be like the 6th elements, they will realize they were the suckers all along. I preped my pop corn and I cannot wait. Going to be very amusing.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
5