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Risk!!!

US 10Y Breakout Recently USTs moved a lot lower as yields continued to push higher on inflation fears and hawkish guidance and communication from Fed. With investors and traders focusing on the 3.5% before any significant correction in stocks. However with the recent push hitting 3.23%, US stocks plunged sparking global risk off sentiment. As such USTs found support from safe haven flows. Technically, price is getting squeezed in with a resistance at 97.87 with rising lows. Price will break either way A) price breaks upside - for this to play out general risk off sentiment will remain adverse, with stocks moving lower. targeting $98.70 28SEP high. B) If price holds the resistance and continues in this downwards trend back towards OCT lows at 96.90. If this was the case would hold the final part of position for a further push to the downside. Fundamentally, stocks would bounce and global risk sentiment would improve... maybe the catalyst for this scenario is strong US earnings this week coupled with strong GDP growth advance reading on Friday. Both trades offer good risk to reward... Personally I favor option B, continuation of the downwards trend but have no problem getting long on a confirmed break above the resistance. Will wait for a breakout before taking any action
TVC:US10Short
by AlexClarkFX
Buy opportunity for Gbp/usd ...after crazy ride Hey traders , for the days ahead , i see that the price in all time frames except 1min and 5 min and 15 min the trend is downtrend , the price is above MA 200 so we have to search about short bias but this is not for me right now , second the AOV- area of value is on the new support -the old resistance and closed on Friday with new resistance on 1.28400. The entry Trigger was the nice reversal candle on H4 ,or you can see it on lower time frames. If this bullish setup continues we aim on 1.29000, if this break the next station is on the lows of 1.26634 Set stop loss 1.28000 Care its high risk trade because the Trend is downtrend and the news is not good for gbp , but we cant see the reversal candle and dont use it , the main trade on this one is that will fall down , but for the week ahead maybe bounce at the price that mention before. Thank You
Long
by UnknownUnicorn3549910
2
$USDCHF EPIC 7 to 1 RETURNSFundamentals: CHF hasn't been acting in traditional safe haven character, with global risk sentiment in the "off" position and CHF is weakening. Unsure why this is, but if you look at yield spread between treasuries and CH10 its been widening all year as treasury yields rally and CH10 yield is relatively unchanged on the year. jan2018 spread= 250bps & Oct spread = 320bps implying higher for this market. Coupled with that I wonder if theres a carry trade developing for this market, with Fed rates at 2.25% with outlook set to hike through 2019 past 3% and the Snb with rates at -0.75% also generating demand for this market. Technical: However I like the technicals for this trade. 1.0050 is a huge resistance level and the reward for the trade is 7 to 1, taking profits along the way. I think due to the bullish factors for this market, generally stronger USD and weaker CHF id move my stop loss to breakeven quicker than normal. Theres also the possibility that the resistance level may break to the upside in which case would look for bullish trade.
Short
by AlexClarkFX
$USDJPY - RISK OFF TRADE. BONUS $EURJPY & $GBPJPY TRADESRecently seen risk aversion in the market with US equities almost 9% off the recent peak (SP), US 10 year yields off the highs from 3.25% as low as 3.11% where there is near term support, Traditional high yielding FX (AUD lower, NZD lower, EUR lower, GBP lower), WTI crude 14% off recent peak and safe haven flows lifting JPY, gold, silver and US bonds. We're now seeing US equities stabilizing at 2700, USDJPY holding $112, US 10Y yield stalling at 3.11%, gold pausing for breath at $1235 resistance... as the market decides where to go next. If $USDJPY stays above $112 this trade doens't count and can expect a rally and re-test of recent peak at $114.50. If the risk off continues, JPY will strengthen across the board, key measure will be USDJPY will break through $112. Currently, trend line support and horizontal S&R @ $112 handle holding this market up, if that were to break, could take this market down to the $110 area, as always, taking profits along the way and managing stop loss. There are other alternative trade ideas... that offer higher reward to risk ratios... EURJPY GBPJPY as posted below. As EUR is weak across board due to growth and political reasons... with the Euro Area PMIs missing this morning again and situation in Italy still at logger heads continued weakness for EUR and no clear light in sight. Sentiment is very bearish this market. Note that ECB rate decision Thursday and i cant see how Draghi can be optimistic about the slowdown of growth in EU.. what will his comments be on QE ending in DEC, growth, Trade tensions... at worst he could say that QE may be extended due to economic slowdown that Dovish rhetoric would be very negative for EUR across the board. Then theres GBP which has the same outlook, economic data isnt great and the continued Brexit deadlock, GBPUSD technically breaking key technical levels and sentiment is very bearish on this market. With US GDP reading on Friday (which is expected to be strong) and mixed earnings season with lot of analysts talking about how sales and revenue are slowing. Be worth keeping an ear on the sqwark (or Twitter) to note whether earnings are good/ bad and whether this GDP figure is good/ bad as a factor in determining where the risk sentiment will go next
Short
by AlexClarkFX
How To Calculate Pip Value, Risk & Trade Size TutorialHey Traders, in this idea we are going to break down step by step, how a professional trader calculates pip value, risk and trade size. The focus of this lesson is aimed towards helping you get an idea of how you can create your own risk management plan in order to remain consistently profitable over a long period of time. You can have the best strategy in the world and still lose consistently without a solid risk management plan. In fact, in my personal experience with teaching traders, I have found that many traders who do not succeed are actually using a profitable strategy! These traders would have made money if they followed their risk management rules but that tends to go out the window when we do not see how the numbers work out for ourselves (among many other reason). It is important that you use these calculations that I have broken down on these charts over and over again until it makes perfect sense to you and then apply them to your own trading. If you do nothing else at least make sure the numbers work for you! I hope this short tutorial helps you get started on creating your own risk management plan and please be sure to comment below with any questions you may have. If you like this tutorial please give this lesson a thumbs up and I will cover more on this topic In a future lesson. Thanks Traders, If you would like access to a spreadsheet that automatically calculates all of this for you, please request one using the link below and I will send you my personal spreadsheet for free. goo.gl Also if you have not done so please follow me at TradersNsights Facebook page as I plan to start posting daily market updates and predictions over there that may be helpful to you. www.facebook.com
Education
by Alec40
17
Ethereum's Constantinople Testnet FailedThe attention of the Ethereum community has been massively focused on the upcoming update called “Constantinople”. This is a huge step for the Ethereum blockchain, as the Constantinople was meant to bring a variety of upgrades, which were expected and needed. On 13 October 2018, Constantinople was put on the testnet, but failed to work. While it is unclear if it was the lack of miners on the ETH network for the Constantinople to fail, but certainly it is of great interest to miners. Why? Because this upgrade would lower the reward for the miners, and instead of getting 3 ETH, they will get only 2 ETH as a block reward. However, at the same time, Constantinople should reduce the inflation rate, which makes it more attractive for investors. While the update failed, investors didn’t seem to have any reaction as price remained within a very narrow range; between btc 0.031 support and 0.032 resistance. Both of these are the Fibonacci retracement level, and its clear how the 38.2% level is currently acting as the resistance. Although, looking at he 61.8% Fibs support, it was broken on the 11 October, and later, on the 15 October it was rejected. There is an impression that market is going through the uncertainty, as ETH/BTC price struggling to establish a clear direction during the past 3 days. Yes, it spiked up on the 15 October, reaching the btc 0.0344 high. However, the 88.6% Fibs support, 200 Moving Average and the long-term downtrend were rejected, and the 4h closing price below the btc 0.032 resistance. As the downside risk is very high, price might decline further, reaching either btc 0.0292, 0.0281, 0.0271 support. Nevertheless, for this to happen, 4h close must be below the btc 0.03 psychological support. On the upside, close above the btc 0.032 might be considered as a buy signal for short-term investors, and ETH/BTC should re-test the btc 0.034 resistance. Support: 1. 0.0310 2. 0.0300 3. 0.0292 4. 0.0281 5. 0.0271 Resistance: 1. 0.0320 2. 0.0344 3. 0.0376
by CryptalDash
99% of day traders consistently lose money (educational)In this screencast I present results of a scientific study carried out on day trading, in the Taiwan Stock exchange. I explore some volatile instruments that some day traders may get stung by. The results of the Taiwan study are shocking. Disbelief leads people to argue that 'that's in Taiwan - so what?'. However the results are informative of cognitive and behavioural characteristics of day traders, more widely. Even if the results are 50% applicable outside of Taiwan, they are seriously worrying. For those interested in reading the study, Google: "Do Day Traders Rationally Learn about Their Ability". So, what does it all mean? For me it means: 1. That the knowledge, skill and experience required to be consistently profitable are extreme. 2. Day traders are most at risk of burning their accounts and departing never to return. 3. Even seasoned traders are at huge risks of losing money. 4. It isn't about methodology - it is about 'individual trader psychology' New traders need to be very cautious in following experts. A fair few of seasoned traders have set up training programmes, from which I suspect they make more money training, than in trading. Hard evidence on that is of course not easy to come by. But it's not me just saying so - a handful of true experts out there have said similar. [ For the avoidance of doubt, I have committed never to sell anything to new or seasoned traders. What you see is what you get. I do not need anybody's money. ]
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
VIPS low-risk buy, high reward potentialThis is a short term play that, if all goes well, could turn into a long-term play. NYSE:VIPS is currently at the bottom of a micro uptrend channel (orange lines), looking to test the two major trend bear trend lines on the 4hr and Daily. I'm using a low risk entry on the bottom of the channel with a stop under the low of today which would be a confirmation of an exit of the channel. I'm using a profit target based on stock remaining in the channel and resistance at the Daily trend line (solid light blue line). There will most likely be resistance at the 4hr trend line (light blue dotted line) but a break of that trend line should give enough momentum to test the major Daily trend line. Move up stops under new lows that remain along the bottom of the upward channel, let the trade continue if it's a winner but take the profits if the channel fails. This is a 15 minute chart. This is a step back on the larger time frame, the Daily, to show the major trend lines that could serve as major breakouts if broken, especially if they are retested once broken and hold to show confirmation. On the weekly chart, there is trend angle play dating back to 2012 (red line) that could come into play. If it does get broken, retested and held with confirmation, then VIPS is looking at a long term major reversal to the upside. This is a long shot but the potential is there if the 6 year red trend line comes back into play. But let's stick with the original game plan on the micro trend channel on the 15 min chart and if it keeps going, great. Remember, risk management is key! Tomorrow is another day! Good luck!
NYSE:VIPSLong
by NicAdams
An update to our US equities chart=> We have an update to our S&P chart (see attached for our previous idea on the weekly) => This selloff was telegraphed miles in advance in our telegram group because of the correction in yields due to inflation and rates. => The caveat which underpins the rush to the doors is politics with the US mid-terms around the corner we are dangerously close to trigger capitulation to the downside. => If these current lows hold next week then we may bounce into November otherwise we are aligned for a real bloodbath for the coming quarters. => This is a very advanced trading environment and we would highly recommend staying sidelined unless you can keep the emotions in check. => Well done to all those who made a few on the recent sell-off from our telegram group and best of luck to those tracking these current levels
OANDA:SPX500USD
by ridethepig
USD/CNH technical strategy for risk off=> What are we tracking here? => This is a very complex environment with major risk off flows from large funds in play last week. => Bears are refusing to capitulate and give the highs defending with everything they have meaning we can use the highs at 6.9586 as a line in the sand for triggering further risk-off flows, especially in the broader EM space. => On the political side we have the potential for the US to label China as a currency manipulator here as early as next week so this noise will provide the ebb and flow. => To the downside we will have to see a daily close below 6.9119 to provide some respite. => GL all those tracking this one or in live trades
by ridethepig
EURUSD Price: Heightened Risk from a Strong Non-Farm Payroll RelEURUSD – A FURTHER BREAK LOWER IS LIKELY EURUSD remains in a holding pattern ahead of the latest US labor and earnings report with market expectations looking for a stronger release to support the US dollar at its current level. Recent US data has been strong, especially the ADP report and the ISM non-manufacturing/services composite release, and any upside beat in either the jobs or wages component today will hit an already weak EURUSD. Alternatively, a weaker-than-expected report will give the pair a small boost, but the underlying fundamental and technical outlook for EURUSD remains firmly pointed to the downside in the short-to-medium term. A look at government bond spreads between the two show the 2-year US Treasury now offering over 330 basis points more than comparable German debt, while in the10-year space, the US offers around 265 basis points of extra yield. The widening of this yield differential will continue to draw flows towards the US dollar. The daily chart shows support at 1.1509 broken – the late May/early June double touch – and the pair trading under all three moving averages. Fibonacci support at 1.1448 will offer some support ahead of the August 15 low at 1.1301. The downtrend from the September 24 high at 1.18154 remains in place. IG Client Sentiment shows that retail are 55.5% net-long EURUSD. See what this means and how it can affect trading decisions. EURUSD DAILY PRICE CHART (NOVEMBER 2017 – OCTOBER 5, 2018) EURUSD Price: Heightened Risk from a Strong Non-Farm Payroll Release Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide. What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1. TO get more information and hourly alert analysis FOLLOW Our Profile- www.tradingview.com
by kabbo12
1
OCLN Origin Clear INC. Very High Risk Reward!ok so this is one of my least favorite charts, but its interesting. This is a water filtering company to be blunt, but they do and serve a much larger picture. In about 10 years, water is going to be like gold, at least fresh clean water, due to the amount we use and pollute. Water filtering will be a big deal in the future, so this could be a huge play but in the longer term. This has been a stock tanking for a long time, practically at a literal bottom. Theres more upside then down. When you see a stock fall like this, you have to think they went bankrupt, or sales are decreased, but thats NOT the case. This company is fairly active, and recently, along with many interviews and videos of their oporations. They reported over DOUBLE sale revenue a few months ago, along with a few recent things happening with the company, along with a new way to oxidize and clean water. anyways, just charting for future reference, I see some upside swing from hitting that sweet 15 number, the increased volume in the last few months shows something going on, as its bigger then any volumes its had in its life. FOLLOW for UPDATES, and check my other charts out! Happy trading, debating and speculating!
OTC:OCLNLong
by ToddGreen
4
It's a loser's game - officiallyThis post is modified and re-posted after it was banned (a matter of fact and the truth). Why? I was said to be promoting a broker's website seemingly because by I identified the source of quotation and said that they were being honest. I have now substituted the name the broker with a fictitious ABCXYZ (which is not the name of any broker as far as I am aware). The rest of the post is the same. I promote nobody - not even myself. ESMA is not a broker. The quotation is directly from an email I received today from ABCXYZ.com ABCXYZ.com has been fully transparent on the risk of losing money on it's platform. Nothing in this educational post is to suggest that people avoid trading. The sole intention of this post is for new and season traders to better understand the risks, and to realise the amount of effort, discipline, training and sacrifice that are needed to become consistently profitable. As a new trader your chances are very very slim, for making consistent profits over months or years. Some people think that it's all about following a set or rules. Well, if it was that simple then 80% of people would just follow rules and be millionaires. That's not going to happen! For novices, the high probability of losing money is nothing to do with any particular broker. It must be something else! I'm afraid the most important factor is hardly ever discussed in forums. What's that? It's about 'trader psychology'. It's that unseen thing - the elephant in the room - that causes the problems. I say, it does not matter what system you use to tackle the markets with, the underlying obstacle is 'your psychology'. It is not about mastering the charts. It's all about self-mastery. Any dissenting opinions? Have your say now. For the avoidance of doubt or suspicion, I am 100% committed to helping other traders develop for absolutely no pecuniary or other advantage to me - ever! In other words, I'll never take you to some site that sells tips, signals, or courses - where you'd start of at free but then have to pay to learn from some 'inner circle'.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
Macro Risk-Weighted Index: Pennant Break Ahead of US Election?We've been reporting for over a month now how coincidental it that the risk-rally has stalled at the origin of the GFC supply imbalance 10y ago. Also, how the macro pennant seen in the weekly shows a time projection of breaking around the US mid-term election. However, with the latest rally in risk, we may be just 1 day away from that milestone to happen this very week. Also, one can notice on the upper chart how the 100-hourly MA acts as an excellent indicator to determine the times when the market enters macro risk-on mode (above the 100-hma). The chart definitely earns its fair share of merit for one to follow and to us, it has become a great reflection of the mood in the markets. Trade safe!
S
by FlowState
Risk-On but Beware of a PullbackBonds have broken a ranging period that they've held for months. Yields are near 7-year highs. That being said there's a big retracement starting to form on 30min/4hour charts so watch for it to test one of the Fibs. As you see it just broke 236 so it’s likely it will make a run for 382. The Kovach Indicators seem to confirm this. It seems we will likely form another ranging period before the markets move further. Remember how much trouble we had with 3%... As for the sentiment, it’s difficult to say. There do not seem to be any significant developments in the trade war saga. There's this Kavanaugh witch hunt, which is likely to go the way of the Russia investigation: holding an empty sack. I think investors are starting to catch on that the deep state is going to do anything and everything to spite Trump and derail anything he tries to do or anyone he tries to appoint. Stocks are looking flat, but they're near highs. Expect some retracement here. This agrees with my above assessment in bonds. Both have pushed respective highs/lows, so a retracement is due. Also, regarding stocks, lately there seems to be a lot of stocks that have had their price targets raised, which is always generally risk-on. Finally, Brexit talks seem to be progressing toward conclusion despite this .
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
USDJPY: Don't Sell...YetThe Yen continues to underperform all major pairs, including the Dollar. Yen weakness rather than Dollar strength is currently responsible for the gains that the Dollar has made, retracing some 700 pips off of the March lows. and, more recently, 230 pips off the August low. Technically we're looking at a potential alternative cypher pattern, though I make almost no trade decisions off of harmonic patterns. Currently the USDJPY -0.06% is up against resistance at the 112.00 handle, which is also the 68.1% fib retracement off the July 19th high. I've been on a short bias since I first posted about the pair after getting a short entry signal using my trading methodology, which you can read here. After briefly penetrating my entry zone, the Dollar rallied but has yet to invalidate the trade setup. I'll be watching the next week or so, monitoring what appears to be increasing Dollar weakness. My prediction is that we'll see a low-conviction rally up towards the supply zone (red rectangle ) with little to no momentum. If risk-off returns and investors begin purchasing the YEN than we'll likely see a USDJPY -0.06% sell-off. For now I'm holding.
by thetradeWELL
Risk Sentiment: Pennant to Break on US Mid-Term Election?When experimenting with various financial instruments, one has to confess how strikingly coincidental it is that the risk-rally has stalled at the origin of the GFC supply imbalance 10y ago. At the same time, if one is to project when the macro pennant seen in the weekly may break, it also falls on the same week as the US mid-term election, which few can argue, definitely earns its fair share of credit, to inject enough volatility to see a resolution of the pattern?
S
by FlowState
Risk-Weighted Index Hints 'Risk On' is Back Near TermAs our proprietary risk-weighted index shows, the recovery above the 100-ema in the hourly chart suggests that in the short-term, risk-seeking conditions are likely to be dominant, even if major events as the ECB, BoE or US CPI will also have a major impact in volatility. The index has been mainly assisted by the sell-off in the USD, allowing a significant recovery in the MSCI EM index, while global equities remain underpinned, recovering its early losses on hopes for a resumption of trade talks with China. As a general rule, when the index is above the 100-ema, currencies associated with riskier strategies such as the AUD, NZD, GBP, CAD should benefit against the likes of the JPY, USD.
S
by FlowState
Risk-Weighted Index: In An Established Downward Channel After cracking the 100-hourly MA, the risk-weighted index is clearly communicating that the dynamics may favor a re-adjustment higher in the value of the US dollar and the Japanese yen, given the depressed level both currencies ended at on Wednesday. The latest impulsive leg in risk FX, led by the renewed optimism over the Brexit negotiations, distorted what should have been a much soggier price action in risk trades, as the sell-off in emerging markets continue with the clock ticking away before the US imposes an additional 25% tariffs in $200b of Chinese products. The overly short position held by leverage accounts in G4 FX vs USD caused another rather epic short-squeeze which is not being backed up by risk sentiment, as depicted by the chart we present. What this means is that as long as the downward channel in the risk index continues its course, a bid in the Japanese yen and the US dollar, especially on low levels of support, may see good buying opportunities.
SShort
by FlowState