3M price is in a very tricky situation... On long term basis it failed its 5-year (260 weeks) uptrend test by falling below the 1st upper standard deviation from 5-year mean. It's 10-year uptrend is still intact, as price is trading above upper 1st standard deviation from 10-year (520 weeks) mean. On short term price is in downtrend on quarterly basis (below 1st...
GBPUSD is breaking above upper 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-hour) mean amid expanding volatility (measured by 3.2 standard deviation from the mean) Probability of further upmove is apparent. Traders can pick longs close to the upper 1st standard deviations (1.5690) and stops at weekly mean (1.5645)
On technical basis, SPY (The S&P500 ETF) has broken down below 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean (66 days), while also breaking below 1 year mean (264 days). The price has now entered a downtrend on quarterly basis, and will continue to fall if price stays below 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean (207.1) Closest target is the lower 1st st...
Due to continuous demand for US Treasury securities over the last 30 years and due to global deflationary pressures, triggered by globalization (cost optimization of global businesses) - the yields of 10 and 30 year Notes continue to decline along their long term descending trend line The result of such a development - is the current cost of US debt is lower than...
BTCUSD is trading below 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-h) mean at 257.5 amid downward slope of the mean. Price has probability to fall further down, if it stays below the 1st standard deviation. Traders can pick shorts close to the level (257.5) and stop at the weekly mean (262.3). Breakdown below recent lows will confirm the trade (254.0)
Part-time employment is also declining within its well defined trend since 2012, however it has still some progress to make before reaching pre-crisis levels. In fact, it is the only systemic fallout left to be erased from the 2008-2009 crisis in the employment data.
In line with Total Capacity Utilization index, Manufacturing Capacity Utilization index which measures the share of manufacturing capacities of US companies employed in actual production, has also nearly restored its crisis losses. However, the index has bounced down from the 78% mark in the recent readings, falling out of its ascending range. It is too early...
The 10-Year Treasury Note Yield is on the verge of breakdown due to the recent downtrend in oil and consequent lowered inflation expectations. Despite the anticipated FED rate hike, the Yield can actually go in opposite direction (the famous puzzle outlined by Greenspan, the former FED chairman) The breakdown in the Yield will be confirmed on quarterly basis, if...
Good evening traders, Here is a nice cypher pattern. i missed it but will have a buy order on 1.3477. Very good risk reward. Target set between .5 and .618. Lets see if the price comes back to 1.3477. Good luck this week.
Been stating for weeks our psychological targets are on the upside of 1.2000. However, that would not be achieved for a long time. Our weekly target is 1.1400 then 1.1700.
EURUSD has been trading laterally since mid-Arpil 2015, with price staying within the 1st standard deviation from its quarterly (66-day) moving average. Currently there is apparent risk of breakdown: the price fell to the lower 1st standard deviation from the quarterly from within amid expanding volatility, measured by 3.2 st deviations from the same mean. If...
Total Capacity Utilization index, which measures the share of industrial capacities of US companies employed in actual production, has also nearly restored its crisis losses. However, the index has bounced down from the 80% mark in the recent readings, falling out of its ascending range. It is too early to conclude if it is the end of recovery in the index....
Transportation is one of the key industries of US economy, while paper index traces performance of companies involved in packaging of all the goods shipped. General understanding is that if fewer goods are being packed and transported, fewer goods are being bought, which in turn means a slowdown in US economy (measured by GDP, which is approximately 70% retail...
Price is trading below but close to lower 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-hour) mean amid expanding volatility, which hinds that it has a bias to break down further and enter a leg of a downward move. The leg will be confirmed if price breaks relevant lows (at approx 0.73400). Thus purely on technical basis it is a good idea now to take a short position...
MICEX measured in USD prices (MICEX index divided by USDRUB) has held its 5-year (60-month) downtrend test in May 2015 amid expanding volatility. On technical basis alone, if the price holds below the 1st standard deviation from the 5-year mean (now at 32.42), chances are it will retest 2009 lows (at 16.35) - which is a 50% fall in value. What makes this...
USDRUB is on the move again - price broke put above 1st standard deviation from quarterly (66-day) moving average on July 6th, signaling upwards probability. The move comes in line with WTI Oil, which entered a downtrend recently (see related idea). RUB is very correlated to oil prices, as Russia's key exports are oil and natural gas.
Since our last forecast, WTI Oil has fallen out of its lateral range into a full-fledged downtrend on quarterly basis (in relation to 66-day mean). The downtrend bias is confirmed on the long term picture: oil fell through 20-year moving average (now at 54.54) and also trades firmly below 1st standard deviation from its 10-year moving average (standing at...
Confluences: 1/ with the recent formed downtrend 2/ Broke TL + retest 3/ Tested the 130.000 weekly resistance 4/ Bounced of the 50% fib. 5/ high test, followed by inside bar set up, followed by another high test 6/ 50 & 60 EMA's bounce